The General of 2015

[Highlander]

A Report just release offered reasons as to why the Pollsters got the result of the General Election so wrong offers the following consclusion

"Pollsters didn't ask enough of the right people how they planned to vote. Proportionately they asked too many likely Labour voters, and not enough likely Conservatives."

Really ?!!!!

[KKOB]

Blimey H, I thought this was going be about the military !

[kevin3]

  Pollsters gather data from a variety of area's to form a picture and use social networks more and more to seek opinions

  coming from the chatter.I think they overlooked the fact that a lot of pensioners do not use the internet but are the section

  of voters most likely to actually turn out and vote, election after election. Once again the opinions of pensioners were overlooked

  and in my opinion was the cause of the pollsters getting it so wrong.  So there.!!       

[Highlander]

Blimey H, I thought this was going be about the military !

Apologies folks = title should of course read The General Election of 2015.

[kevin3]

  Could have been worse  H. We could have been discussing the General Erection---------------------Or the Viagra Falls.     

[Colwyn]

  Pollsters gather data from a variety of area's to form a picture and use social networks more and more to seek opinions

  coming from the chatter.I think they overlooked the fact that a lot of pensioners do not use the internet but are the section

  of voters most likely to actually turn out and vote, election after election. Once again the opinions of pensioners were overlooked

  and in my opinion was the cause of the pollsters getting it so wrong.  So there.!!         

   I think that could be a big part of the answer but it also seems that another problem with social media surveying is that the respondents are largely self-selecting. Those most interested in politics are more likely to reply and we can't be sure that they have views representative of the wider population.

[usedbustickets]

You'll recall the last time the Pollsters got it really wrong was in 1992.  In what was probably the last of the non internet influenced general elections the Pollsters rushed round then trying to find out what went wrong.  Same answers from the Pollsters then something wrong with the sample taken etc. - and they couldn't blame the internet then.

My take then on the Pollsters dilemma - as a Political Agent at that General Election - was ask the right question first. 'Will you definitely be voting in next week/tomorrows General Election?' not 'Are you likely to be voting in next week's / tomorrows General Election' and base your sample on only those saying that they will definitely vote.

Polls are only within a range of certainty, not complete certainty and most important of all, for a variety of reasons, PEOPLE LIE.  Not least of which, from my own electoral experience, is that many people think it is a little shameful to vote Tory, not wanting to be seen by others as possibly greedy or selfish.  Particularly those voters who may be voting Tory for the first time.  Let me make it clear this is not all Tory voters, but nevertheless a number that can make an impact on polling data.

[kevin3]

  UBT
  Did you ever come across anyone that was ashamed to be voting for Labour or any other of the parties.?
  In all my years knocking on doors, carrying out surveys and attending meetings for Labour I never heard of it.
  Round my way you would never know if they were ashamed of their voting intentions. If they were uncomfortable
  with the questions they would invite you to p##s off or slam the door. Why would you vote for something that
  made you feel greedy or selfish.?   

[Colwyn]

Why would you vote for something that
  made you feel greedy or selfish.?   

I read UBT's post as meaning that people would vote Tory in a secret ballot (e.g. General Election) but wouldn't want to admit it in a survey. I have no idea whether this would lead them to lie to the person surveying or tell them to "kindly go away".

[usedbustickets]

In answer to your question, yes I have come across people who were ashamed to have voted Labour.  Particularly when Blair took us to war in Iraq.  However, these former or disenchanted Labour voters had come to their conclusion out of principle, not any personal advantage.

Sorry you seem to doubt my experience in coming to my conclusions Kevin, but let me explain a little further in the hope that it sheds some further light on it for you.  Some of my experience was based on canvassing on the doorstep - occasionally on the phone - and more particularly in follow up on previous canvas results, usually at the next local election, although not exclusively so.  Most of it was in conversations I had with people, usually in the world of work.  I always carried my politics as a badge of honour, in whichever job I did or company I worked for.  And when you are that open and honest on politics, then people do open up to you in conversation, even if they didn't agree with me. I stopped, figuratively speaking, 'battering' people I didn't agree with on politics or political issues by the the end of my teens, and so could have sensible conversations with them.

The people I spoke to who had voted Tory, invariably followed up that statement with something like like 'after always voting Labour all my life', and some - not all - went further by stating that they were ashamed to admit the fact that they had voted Tory.

And you ask why would they vote for something that made them feel selfish or greedy?  You'd have to ask them that.  Although I'll try to make a stab at an answer here, based on those conversations described above, as to why they did.  Sometimes they felt that way because they supported a Tory policy from which they would gain economic advantage, for example, council house sales or privatisation shares, which they saw would be to detriment of other sections of the community. Possibly the biggest reason is that for many people across the UK the Tory Party is the Party of Greed and Selfishness, and if you think that, or had thought that, then perhaps you'd feel ashamed to have voted for them.