Europe

[usedbustickets]

I can understand the political arguments against the EU even though I don't share them. The economic arguments for Brexit seem flimsy at best.

Let me question your first point that Brexiteers were looking at building an arrangement with China as an alternative to European trade..nonesense!  I have not heard anyone making the case that in some way the UK's exit would mean that we no longer trade with europe and then build relations with other countries.  We would continue to trade with Europe after exit, in much the same way as we do today, and of course we would continue to trade with the rest of the world as we do today.  However, we would be in a better position to protect our home industries if we need to, for example we could quickly put tariffs on Chinese steel should they be dumping cheap steel into our market, or for example choose to import cheaper food from the rest of he world free from European tariffs designed to protect, for example, FRench or German farmers or agri industries.

If we are going to talk flimsy economics, then you need look no further than the cornerstone of further European integration, that is the Euro.  The whole European economy (including the UK's) currently, and over the last five years, has a drag on growth from the inadequacies of the Euro; the European Central bank policies; and the flimsy performance of the weak banking systems and economies themselves of a number of the constituent national members of the Eurozone.  It might be a fantastic currency to replace a multitude of currencies operating in a single closed market, but it is not so efficient when dealing with disparate national economic performances; differing national fiscal policies, and in some cases tax evasion on a huge scale.  Never mind the sevre economic problems we have seen it produce in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and indeed in France and Italy. It might be a big world currency, but I would judge that it is smaller as a whole than its constituent national parts, simply because of these and other inefficiencies.  And given the EU (and the European Central Bank's) and their unaccountable political elite's poor record on dealing with any number of issues around economic performance and other issues such as security or agriculture or industrial policies I can only see the Euro to be a continuing millstone around the neck of the EU in particular for years to come.

[Ovacikpeedoff]

The exit campaign is built on pure conjecture and has no real substance about what will happen if the UK leaves. There is this naive belief that once we leave that we can continue to trade as we did before we left. It is utter nonsense. Every trade agreement negotiated under the EU banner will be null and void. Currently the EU has 46 trade agreements with other nations and is in the process of negotiating another 70. The EU and the US are currently negotiating the biggest free trade market agreement. So when the UK leaves she will have to negotiate her own agreements. Negotiating new agreements is not a 10 minute job and can take many years. This will result in uncertainty in the medium term. At present we export 45% of our goods and services to the EU. Our next biggest trading partner is the US which takes 15%. The 45% will become subject to tariffs. The 15% with the US is covered by EU trade agreements.One of the main reasons why companies like Toyota and Nissan have established plants in the UK is to allow access to a free market. The additional tariffs will certainly make exports more expensive. These companies have already said that leaving the EU will raise certain difficulties and will influence future decisions. Foreign investment in the UK will suffer. This will be to the advantage of the EU as companies will consider relocating or starting new ventures in Eastern Europe. The choice is invest in the UK with a population of 65 million or Europe with 450 million people.The one thing that business hates is uncertainty and that will certainly come in the truck load. We have seen the impact of this uncertainty in the dramatic fall in sterling since the referendum announcement. Some forecasters are stating that parity will be achieved with the Euro if we leave. I read all this about the Euro and yes it is far from perfect but it is still one of the major hard currencies of the world. Since the introduction of the Euro sterling has depreciated against it and is continuing to depreciate. It is another smokescreen of exit campaign. We did not join the Euro and we cannot be forced to join it. If the rest of Europe want to integrate more that is their decision. The Euro did not cause the last recession we should look towards the US and sub prime lending for the starting point. We have survived outside the Euro and we will continue to do so. But will we be able to survive outside the free trade and that is what this referendum should be about.

The basics of the EU is still that it is a free trade area. The impression that every directive from Brussels is another nail in our human rights is just another untruth. Directives from the EU include
- the working directive of 48 hours and break times.
- paternal leave and extra protection in the work place for pregnant women
- Pension protection on change of company ownership
- Food, health and animal rights
- Travel and the opening of competition.

These are just some of the areas. The exiters want to remove the directives that generally apply to workers rights like the working directives and health and safety as they are considered a burden. We might as well go back to sending children up chimneys again. Let people get killed because they do not have proper protection in the workplace. Go back to letting HGV drivers driver for 100 hours and fall asleep at the wheel. Let us allow vulture capitalists to raid Pension funds. The removal of employment law impacts on the ability of the workers to protect themselves without the opportunity to appeal to European courts.

Nigel Farage argues that we can create a Swiss or Norwegian model and continue to trade with the EU taking the good bits is nonsense. The Swiss and Norwegians still have to contribute to the EU budget and comply with the vast majority of EU regulation. Norway actually pays more per capita to the EU than the UK pays per capita.The agreement with the Swiss excludes financial services which is one of the UK's major exports. So the Swiss and Norwegians still have to comply and pay but have no seat at the table to influence the decisions that impact them. I listen to Farage and Boris going on about the £12 billion we will save and how it will sort the NHS out when we will be giving it back to the EU as payment for the privilege to trade. Boris(I am looking after myself) stated that we should be paying for medical care and would like to see the NHS partly privatised.Boris has admitted that there will be consequences for UK employment but it is a risk worth taking. It is if you have millions in the bank like he has and not to have to pay the mortgage or put food on the table for the family. This idea that we should vote to leave so that we can go back and renegotiate an even better deal is childish. First, we are assuming that Europe will agree to negotiate. Second, they will give better terms. It is one hell of a risk. The knives will be out and any negotiations will not start for years. Some foreign ministers have openly stated that if the UK leaves there will be consequences.We kid ourselves that we are big players and that the empire still exists. Sorry those days are gone. When the world is heading into consolidation we want to set sail alone.
This referendum could be the end of the UK as we know it. Scotland if they vote in favour of staying will almost certainly have an independence referendum again.

With regards to establishing new markets with China and other developing nations it is full of danger. These countries are much more interested in selling into established markets than buying from them. The UK runs a massive trading deficit with China. The Chinese have recently flooded the world market with cheap steel and will probably result in the end of steel making in the UK. At a minimum it will result in massive job cuts. Blame has been put on the EU and that is not true. When the Chinese started to flood the market the EU wanted to impose  68% tariff and who opposed it. Yes, the UK government. Countries like the US, Canada, China and Australia do not want the UK to leave. They are happy dealing with a market that they know and the regulations that apply.

The financial services directive of 2010(not sure of date) allows the free movement and trade within the free market block. The UK is a service nation as we have not been been a manufacturing nation for years. The EU actually protects our trading in services. Some of our main earners include banking and insurance and these could be seriously hampered by leaving the UK.

Then there is the whole muddle around immigration and the free movement of labour. Typical of the UK press and sensational headlines that usually highlights one or two situations. We are led to believe that the immigrant is the route of all problems. It is a fact that the UK relies on immigration to fill the skill shortages. The average immigrant is better qualified than the locally produced worker. Some 35% of immigrants come with degrees as opposed  21% of the local population. The UK population is getting older and the average age of the foreign worker is 24 against 40+ for the UK worker. So the UK leaves the EU what is the position of the current immigrants? Do they stay or do we deport them? Where do they stand with the rights guaranteed to them under EU regulation? Deport them and finish up with even bigger labour shortages. Make life extremely difficult for Brits who want to retire or work abroad.

It is an accepted fact that immigrants in work contribute some 34% more into the system than what they take out.
Immigration masks many things. In fact it is only 50% that come from the EU. So why is the UK not able to manage and control the other 50%. The emphasis is generally on the Muslim population in the UK. Most of them come the Indian sub continent and Africa not Europe.

I listen to these health tourism arguments and it is again bent to suit the exit campaign. The UK is under no obligation to treat visitors free of charge. EU members should have a EHIC card that allows the UK to recoup the cost of treatment. The fact that the UK does not collect the fees and does not refuse treatment is the incompetence of the UK system.

Yes, the EU is far from perfect and needs reform. But is it worse than taking the risk to be cut off in a very unstable world that we now live in.

This referendum is really a sideshow. It is the culmination of 30 years of Tory infighting from the time that Pro Europeans led the plot to get rid of Maggie.

As for UKIP it is nothing more than an opportunity to spread fear about immigration and exploit the Tory divisions. Farage is happy to take his big fat salary from the EU. Here is a man who hates Europe so much that he drives a Volvo.

It is over 3 years since I posted on the forum but I feel that this referendum is the most important decision that the country has been asked to make for many a year. We are not just voting for the current generation but generations to come. I will vote to stay for the sake of my grandchildren as I believe that the alternatives are full of risks and danger.

I will get the usual Brexit campaign response that I am spreading fear. I am stating tangible outcomes. All I hear from the other side is conjecture and fairytales. Fairytales like there is a better world out there. Don't worry nothing will change except we will have £12 billion in our pockets and we will be happy.

Apologies for such a long ramble, so speak to all again in 3 years time.

[desmartinson]

The most sensible post I have read so far, I'm for staying in, but don't agree to paying more money than others.

[Scunner]

The exit campaign is built on pure conjecture and has no real substance about what will happen if the UK leaves.

The campaign to stay in is based largely on conjecture in regard to what will happen if the UK leaves. I guess that type of speculation is acceptable to you though?

[nichola]

Welcome back Ovacikpeedoff.

And, wow, great speech...

Don't leave it another three years   

[Rana]

Wow Ovacikpeedoff very informative read...infact more informative than the government leaflet I recently received through my door to convince me to stay in. There leaflet didn't convince me enough but you certainly have! Maybe the government should have paid you the £9million (or whatever amount it was) to write their leaflets 

[Colwyn]

Nice to see you paying a visit OPO.

[JohnF]

I wonder if the votes ratio is in any way linked to the geographic location (or roots for ex pats) of the voter - as in those from the south of England favouring "out" and those from the north of England and Scotland favouring "in"?  What's the Welsh take on it anyone?

JF

[usedbustickets]

Welcome back Ovacikpeedoff.

And, wow, great speech...

Don't leave it another three years   

You wasn't saying that three years ago, when he was telling you that austerity was the way forward!!

[usedbustickets]

Wow Ovacikpeedoff very informative read...infact more informative than the government leaflet I recently received through my door to convince me to stay in. There leaflet didn't convince me enough but you certainly have! Maybe the government should have paid you the £9million (or whatever amount it was) to write their leaflets 

It would be informative if it was not full of fear, inaccuracies and half baked economic thought.  Mind you it is not hard to be more informative that the UK government document, a real document of fear and a complete absence of any political or economic balance.  As in deed was the Treasury model being peddled around today by Gideon Osborne to frighten the natives!!