Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum

Turkey Related Subjects => Turkey Discussion Forum (Not Calis specifically) => Topic started by: Colwyn on May 02, 2018, 14:58:41 PM

Title: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: Colwyn on May 02, 2018, 14:58:41 PM
For the Optimistists:
In the last opinion poll on May 1st the Piar agency recorded the crucial Second Round support at 50.1% for Aksener (Iyi Party) and 49.9 for Erdogan (AKP). And this was before CHP (Republican People's), Iyi (Happy), SP (Felicity) and DP (Democratic) agreed an electoral pact as a joint attempt to defeat Erdogan.

For the Pessimists:
The Piar agency has consistently rated AKP lower, and opposition parties higher, that other polling agencies. And if polling looks likely to be close there could be some "creative" electoral techniques especially with polling officials being AKP appointees. We might get 108.6% turnouts for Erdogan!


Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: incir on May 03, 2018, 09:25:12 AM
Doesn't bear thinking about.  And for some reason I don't trust that Aksener woman either.
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: cenk on May 03, 2018, 11:02:31 AM
Main opposition party CHP didnt declare its candidate yet. Probably will declare tomorrow.
About election; if any of the candidates can not get more that %50, another tour will be done after 2 weeks. This will be between only 2 candidates who are the first and second in the first tour. They will be probably Erdogan and candidate of CHP.
4 party (CHP, IYI, SP and DP) made a deal to suport the candidate who will race against Erdogan in the second tour (if the election will go to 2nd tour)
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: kevin3 on May 03, 2018, 12:55:29 PM




           I wonder which way the cats will vote.??
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: KKOB on May 03, 2018, 19:12:35 PM
An interesting read.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/03/turkey-meral-aksener-time-for-the-men-in-power-to-feel-fear
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: cenk on May 04, 2018, 08:08:04 AM
CHP's candidate is declared. Muharrem Ince.

SM-N950F cihazımdan Tapatalk kullanılarak gönderildi

Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: Anne on May 04, 2018, 12:58:42 PM
I am wondering if the ladies of Turkey will use their votes for Meral Akşener and put a female at the top.
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: JohnF on May 04, 2018, 14:06:44 PM
Sadly, in many cases, it'd only be if their husbands let them...

JF
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: Colwyn on May 15, 2018, 14:47:29 PM
40 days to go until Round One of what, I suggest, is the most important election in Turkey since the founding of the republic. Opinion polls are still showing Erdogan in the lead - but only just. There is still time for him to ruin the Turkish economy with his eccentric economic policies. If it is true that AKP power derived BOTH from their core support among the Pious Ones AND for their successful management of the economy until recent years, then the economic crisis - especially the currency crisis - may still tip the balance against RTE.

Tomorrow Hakan Atilla, the former Halkbank Deputy Chief Exexective, will be sentenced. He has already been found guilty of aiding Iran evade US sanctions by a US court, but not by Erdogan who says he is "a friend of ours". When the sentence is given RTE will no doubt rail against it and threaten the US with all sorts of reprisals. That ain't going to do the lira much good either. Perhaps there's still a chance that Erdogan won't be crowned Sultan on the 24th June.

That's me off in optimistic dreamworld again!
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: stoop on May 16, 2018, 11:32:33 AM
Well I just hope the bars are open  ;)
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: Colwyn on May 16, 2018, 12:45:03 PM
Well I just hope the bars are open     ;)
Not officially: not while the polls are open. I expect it will be like Wales on Sundays when the country was "dry"; front doors closed, back doors open (for those in the know).
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: JohnF on May 19, 2018, 10:44:15 AM
Interesting read from Serkan Demirtaş in the HDN today.

"Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli has recently been making some interesting but worrying statements.

One such statement was his demand from the Interior Ministry to probe the Fethullahist Terror Organization’s (FETÖ) link with more than 250,000 people who signed a petition to nominate iYi (Good) Party leader Meral Akşener as a candidate for the presidential elections.
"

Cracks beginning to appear in the MHP/AKP alliance perhaps, well worth a read:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/serkan-demirtas/mhp-stands-as-weakest-link-of-peoples-alliance-132040 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/serkan-demirtas/mhp-stands-as-weakest-link-of-peoples-alliance-132040)

JF
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: Colwyn on May 19, 2018, 11:27:21 AM
Last week Bahceli was demanding the release of (patriotic) murderers. Here are two of them: "High-profile Turkish mafia leader Çakıcı ... currently in Bolu Prison, serving a sentence for instigating the murder of his ex-wife Nuriye Uğur Kılıç. He is also convicted of several crimes including organizing and leading a crime syndicate for the purpose of generating profit, instigating murder, instigating injury, and insulting President Erdoğan (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/Erdo%C4%9Fan) [and] "Kürşat Yılmaz was a member of Nationalist Youth Organization (ÜGD) before the 1980 coup. Extradited to Turkey in 1999, he has been since then in prison for instigating the murder of former Kuşadası Mayor Lütfi Suyolcu".

“How just and fair is it to leave these brothers of ours rotting behind walls?” Bahçeli (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/Bah%C3%A7eli) said.

Erdogan turned down this demand.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/president-erdogan-turns-down-mhp-leader-bahcelis-call-for-amnesty-131719 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/president-erdogan-turns-down-mhp-leader-bahcelis-call-for-amnesty-131719)





Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: yabanci on May 21, 2018, 08:04:21 AM
An AK Party poll out today has Reg out in front. :o

https://www.dailysabah.com/elections/2018/05/21/survey-erdogan-has-almost-55-percent-support-in-presidential-elections
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: JohnF on June 08, 2018, 07:55:12 AM
Read something this morning on the BBC web site (http://"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44356360") which I think sums up how a lot of voters view the wee fella:

Cemal Civan, taking an Erdogan leaflet, reveres his president. "I remember the bad times here when we didn't have water. But he gave us the metro, hospitals and schools. Foreign powers are causing the economic problems - it's an international conspiracy."

Without access to anything other than pro government media, this guy believes the "international conspiracy" theory spouted by the AKP at every opportunity - and in some ways I think why shouldn't he?  Without an independent press how can folks get access to what's happening in their country.  Without an independent judicial system folks who do speak up face prison.

It used to make me angry, now it just makes me sad.

Ince or Aksener?  I don't care.  In fact I'd take a two headed goat with rampant halitosis and chronic flatulence ahead of the self serving current incumbent of the presidency.

JF


Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: trainer on June 08, 2018, 09:57:54 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvPbj9NX0zc
 ;D
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: Colwyn on June 15, 2018, 09:36:55 AM
Leaked videos from a closed AKP meeting shows Erdogan urging his followers to fix the polls in the general election, calling on them to get AKP majorities on ballot box monitoring committees so the can ensure the "result" before the voting actually takes place. Reminds me of Erdogan's chilling view of democracy: "democracy is like a train; you get off once you have reached your destination". Is 2018 the year Erdogan reaches his destination and abandons democracy?

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/leaked-video-showing-erdogan-calling-for-tight-marking-of-hdp-goes-viral-133305 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/leaked-video-showing-erdogan-calling-for-tight-marking-of-hdp-goes-viral-133305)
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: Colwyn on June 21, 2018, 15:37:50 PM

I wonder if Erdogan is getting worried that he have "done a Teresa May" (calling a snap election and then losing it)? Not that he is likely to lose the presidency but the AKP may lose their parliamentary majority. He has now said he may try to construct a coalition if this happens. Who will play the role of his DUP? Surely not CHP or HDP and MHP isn't likely to have any MPs (because it fails the 10% rule); so that leaves Aksener and the Iyi Party. Would she get into bed with Erdogan (figuratively speaking) and what would she want for this? Erdogan and coalitions and compromises - that'll be entertaining to watch!


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-says-may-seek-coalition-if-fails-to-get-majority-133568 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-says-may-seek-coalition-if-fails-to-get-majority-133568)
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: JohnF on June 21, 2018, 15:46:52 PM
I don't feel quite so involved with this election now I'm no longer working in Istanbul and ironically it may be the most (politically) interesting for years.

He's certainly making noises that suggest the AKP aren't confident of a majority and some commentators have suggested that ince may prove to be a bit of a surprise package.  Akseners support in the presidential race appears to waned recently, although her party is reckoned to be in a good position from a parliamentary perspective.

We'll soon find out...

JF
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: davybill on June 21, 2018, 18:30:05 PM

I wonder if Erdogan is getting worried that he have "done a Teresa May" (calling a snap election and then losing it)? Not that he is likely to lose the presidency but the AKP may lose their parliamentary majority. He has now said he may try to construct a coalition if this happens. Who will play the role of his DUP? Surely not CHP or HDP and MHP isn't likely to have any MPs (because it fails the 10% rule); so that leaves Aksener and the Iyi Party. Would she get into bed with Erdogan (figuratively speaking) and what would she want for this? Erdogan and coalitions and compromises - that'll be entertaining to watch!


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-says-may-seek-coalition-if-fails-to-get-majority-133568 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-says-may-seek-coalition-if-fails-to-get-majority-133568)
She certainly wouldnt get in to bed with Corbyn! 😁😁😎
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: JohnF on June 22, 2018, 09:05:18 AM
Good article by Murat Yetkin in the HDN regarding possible outcomes if the AKP don't get the required 300 seats in the parliamentary elections, worth a read:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/murat-yetkin/erdogans-plans-in-case-he-loses-parliament-133606

JF
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: Colwyn on June 22, 2018, 09:59:31 AM
She certainly wouldnt get in to bed with Corbyn! 😁😁😎
Well that's good to know.
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: yabanci on June 23, 2018, 10:28:42 AM
Erdogan will win the Presidential election and the AK/MHP coalition People's Alliance will win the election for parliament.
So says the pro-Erdogan Daily Sabah.  ;)

https://www.dailysabah.com/editorial/2018/06/23/dont-be-surprised-on-election-day-again
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: JohnF on June 23, 2018, 11:01:55 AM
On the basis that they've already got all their (pre loaded) ballot boxes ready, and probably know the exact margin by which he'll win by, they may very well be right.

:(

JF
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: Colwyn on June 24, 2018, 11:52:34 AM

Erdogan celebrates his Irishness in new election green suit. The "wee man" is revealed as a leprechaun.


(https://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/Images/2018/6/23/bc6be0e734c144318b6a15fee4fe048c_18.jpg)


Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: yabanci on June 24, 2018, 15:12:28 PM
Another Tamam voter today.  ;)



(https://s8.postimg.cc/yztwmaunl/image.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/yztwmaunl/)
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: JohnF on June 24, 2018, 15:18:01 PM
Yeah, but where are the cats???

JF
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: KKOB on June 24, 2018, 16:58:58 PM
Has RTE declared himself the winner yet ?
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: Scunner on June 24, 2018, 17:27:37 PM
Some boxes are open now and he seems miles ahead :(
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: yabanci on June 24, 2018, 17:35:44 PM
His lead over Ince is narrowing  with a larger percentage of the votes counted.Also waiting on the results from the main cities.
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: Colwyn on June 24, 2018, 17:58:51 PM
Anadolu Agency says that, in early results, Erdogan is on 58% and Ince on 28%. The Guardian laconically notes that, in the last three elections, AA has overestimated the AKP vote by 25% in comparison with final results. I'm still hoping for a second round of head-to-head for Presidency. In the Parliamentary elections the HDP seems odds on to get the necessary 10% of the vote - "a good thing" I think.
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: JohnF on June 24, 2018, 19:04:33 PM
Sounds like a few folks are getting ahead of themselves - the wee fella receiving congratulatory phone calls from various odd bods.

Opposition parties have him on 43% with Ince on 34%

The good news is the HDP have broken the 10% threshold, so will be represented in parliament.

JF
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: KKOB on June 24, 2018, 19:34:10 PM
- the wee fella receiving congratulatory phone calls from various odd bods.


I tried to get through to him but apparently he won't accept a reverse charge call.   :)
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: JohnF on June 24, 2018, 23:13:45 PM
Ach well, the wee man says he's won, everyone else says he hasn't... yet.

Been hearing of some ugly scenes in Istanbul, but nothing about it in the media. No surprise there then.

Got an extremely early flight tomorrow morning so reckon I'll wait till morning for my potential disappointment.

JF
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: stoop on June 25, 2018, 07:29:22 AM
Lira v pound down from 6.20 yesterday to 6.02 this morning. Seems he’s won again with an 87% turn out. That’s almost 9 out of 10 going to the polls.
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: JohnF on June 25, 2018, 09:09:54 AM
Up you mean...

JF
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: yabanci on June 25, 2018, 10:02:17 AM
Seems he’s won again with an 87% turn out.

Yes he did with 52.6% of the vote to Ince's 30.6%
Here in the CHP  heartland of Mugla it was Muharrem Ince who polled 52.6% of the vote with Reg getting 30.6%.
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: Highlander on June 25, 2018, 10:15:07 AM
........That’s almost 9 out of 10 going to the polls.

Many thanks for that detailed analysis of the turn out percentage    ;)  ;)  ;)

Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: stoop on June 25, 2018, 10:20:12 AM
........That’s almost 9 out of 10 going to the polls.

Many thanks for that detailed analysis of the turn out percentage     ;)   ;)   ;)



Ok 8.7 out of 10.

You’re welcome  :)
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: stoop on June 25, 2018, 10:21:31 AM
Up you mean...

JF

6.20 to 6.02 is down if you are selling sterling. I guess you already knew that though  :)
Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: stoop on June 25, 2018, 10:22:57 AM
........That’s almost 9 out of 10 going to the polls.

Many thanks for that detailed analysis of the turn out percentage     ;)   ;)   ;)

What I forgot to add was that I don’t believe that figure for one second.


Title: Re: Presidential Election 2018
Post by: stoop on June 25, 2018, 11:53:36 AM
Oops - back to 6.24