JulesP & Lira Rate - 2.98

[Ian]

Jules - I remember you saying "your other half" was predicting that the rate would be 3.0 TL to the £1 by the end of the year.

Please can he apply to be the next chair of the European Central Bank :D

His predictions are also far better than our UK Growth forecasts - are you doing the lottery at any time in the near future?  

[Julesp]

Yes, it was his job here for years, he was an investment banker or similar, but gave it up when he divorced and walked away from his old life but is still always interested in finances

And yes I have a ticket for the New Year Lottery here But I dont expect to win!

[Rimms]

So, Have I got this right? If you take the £100,000 investment example we discussed on an earlier thread and turned it into Lira at 3 to the £ you would have 300.000 lira, you would earn about £8,000 a year in interest, then if the lira strengthens back to its more traditional level of around 2.2 to the £ You could change your money back to GBP and make about £36,000 on the deal (plus any interest earned) I realise that if the lira continues to weaken then you stand to lose if changing money back to GBP but the Turkish economy seems to be in good shape, GDP was better than China earlier this year and with a very young and well educated population you might expect long term conditions to improve?

[nichola]

I think that's right Rimms.

This may be of interest

Turkish Lira Seen Leading Lead World Currencies in 2012, Reversing Slump

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-21/turkish-lira-seen-leading-lead-world-currencies-in-2012-reversing-slump.html

[Scunner]

And also another reason why the fairly bankrupt French might need Turkey a damn sight more than Turkey needs them...

[Ian]

But as you say George - inflation could be 10% in Turkey next year wiping out bank interest gains and if the euro collapses and the dollar weakens the lira were to go from 3 to 3.5 to the £1 then you would also lose £15k.

I think we should ask Julesp what her other half thinks!!!

[Dutchie]

The article starts with the sentence that the lira has been the second worst performing currency this year.

Converting foreign currency into lira remains a major risk.

The article sounds optimistic but imagine that the lira stays the second worst performing currency.
You could loose 20 percent easily.