Brexit

[villain]

You need to understand what "Chequers" is too. It is effectively staying in the Customs Union and as far as staying in the Single Market as we think we can get away with. We want to stay in The single Market for goods, but not services and end Free Movement.

But what is the Single Market? It allows the free movement of goods, services, labour and capital. This is sacrosant to the EU and all of the EU (and EFTA) countries agree to it. This is where we are cherry-picking - goods yes, services no, labour no and capital yes. I just can't see it working.

Why are we doing this? because the UK know that exiting the CU/SM will smash the UK's manufacturing base (Friction at the border = lorry parks, Just in Time manufacturing companies will leave, suppliers then go out of business.

So-called "Economist for Brexit" and ERG poster boy Prof Minford admitted as such: https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/mps-react-after-vote-leave-11269819 ("MPs react after Vote Leave economist admits Brexit would 'mostly eliminate manufacturing' " )

But think about it - under Chequers, the Germans would still be able to sell their cars to us, but we wouldn't be able to sell our biggest export - financial services - to the EU. That's plain nuts. We would no doubt still make contributions to the EU budget and would have little to no say about the Single Market in the future (Rees-Mogg's "Vassal state" ). That's nuts, too.

[villain]

Yet all the while, we are continually being fed a constant stream of lies from MPs. They are either deliberately lying, or just spectacularly stupid. there is no other explanation.

Please read these where MPs make completely false claims:

1. https://metro.co.uk/2018/09/25/brexit-mps-tweet-about-foreign-lemons-didnt-go-down-too-well-7976838/?ito=article.amp.share.top.twitter

Dan Kawczynski MP for Shrewsbury: "Now at Tescos in Shrewsbury. Please remember EU protectionist racket means inefficient EU growers preferred to other non EU Mediterranean growers,due to massive tariffs imposed by EU. This leads to you paying more for your products! No more after March 2019! #Brexit"

Rapidly and completely debunked, the reality is that you will be clucky to find ANY produce in Tesco that is subject to tariffs.

2. Andrew Bridgen MP (NW Leics.), reckons all English people (I can only assume he thinks Scottish and Welsh people too) are entitled to get an Irish passport.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/irish-passport-england-uk-andrew-bridgen-tory-mp-brexit-border-eu-a8587286.html

3. Chris Philp MP (Croydon South) demonstrates the "Frictionless" Swiss Customs Border. "This is what EU Customs Union border can look like - Flughafenstrasse in Basel on Swiss (not in CU) French (in CU) border. There is a little sign and a small camera of the kind seen on every high street. There are technical solutions to ensuring no hard border NI/RoI"

https://twitter.com/CPhilpOfficial/status/1053603969585561600

What he doesn't mention is that the road leads directly to a  Customs centre/lorry park, and at other border points, lorry queues of 15-20km are frequent. Also worth noting that citizens can pass freely as Switzerland and all of its neighbours participate in Schengen - so whilst citizens can pass through the border virtually unimpeded, goods simply cannot.

He is suggesting the UK can go "WTO" and the Irish border will be unaffected. Complete BS.

[stoop]

So if I'm reading this correctly you are saying that the EU will not agree a trade deal with us before we leave in March 2019. That's not strictly correct.

We are leaving on March 29th 2019 and at that point, assuming some sort of deal has been agreed, we will move on to a two year transition period. Any deal agreed will more than likely include a draft trade deal so that trade can continue pretty much as it does now whilst we enter and go through the transition period.

If there is no withdrawal agreement (deal) reached then we would leave on March 29th without the two year transition period.

Neither the EU or the UK want this! Remainers are using this scenario to scare whoever they can into believing this will happen and we will all be in the crap. Well the EU would be as well!

My view is that there will be an agreed withdrawal deal. It might not be perfect but there will be one that prevents the 'cliff edge' that is worrying businesses on both sides.

Trade with the EU will continue. It has to. Anything else is just plain stupid. However it will not be inside the Single Market or the Customs Union.

[villain]

No, we will not have a trade agreement in place by March 29th. Chequers is only a UK plan.

The "Transition Period" is a misnomer. There is no deal to transition to.

The government are currently stockpiling medicines and food and are building a lorry park in Kent. Please stop saying that's "Project Fear".

Trade will continue, but on what terms? Outside both the Customs Union and Single Market, Just In Time manufacturing (e.g. cars) will cease in the UK.

At least you have your blue passport, I suppose.

[1calis]

Do we really want to deal with a blackmailer?
They are not interested in a deal only our money.

 https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1035627/brexit-news-France-threatens-block-calais-Brexit-divorce-bill-39-billion

[villain]

Funny, that. I've lost count of the times politicians, newspapers, people on here etc. have threatened to "just walk away".

And when you see the potential consequences...

WE'RE BEING BLACKMAILED!

[villain]

National Audit Office says we won't be ready this side of the Channel anyway and it'll be chaos here.

Does that mean we're blackmailing ourselves, too?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45952284

[LindseyMitchell]

Still no word on the Irish border issue.
Raab has stated that the problem can be solved by technology.  This is completely and utterly untrue.  Technology can’t search lorries, and even if it could technology has a tendency to break down occasionally.
There are farms which straddle the border, and people who live on one side and work on the other.  The DUP have repeatedly stated they will not brook a hard border.
The WTO will not agree to our membership without a hard border.
Your views on this?

[villain]

Robert Peston: "A shocked cabinet was today told no-deal Brexit may force government to own or operate lorry ferries, because freight through Dover and Channel Tunnel could fall 85% and we’d run out of vital goods, food and medicine https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2193134667677933/

It's almost like literally no-one has repeatedly been telling them this for 2 and a half years.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but we are literally preparing to introduce Blitz-style emergency measures to stop British people starving because we can’t countenance the idea of staying in the customs union. Ask yourself if you ever saw that on the side of a bus.

Excerpt from National Audit Office detailing HMRC border system No Deal preparedness (if it's red, the prognosis is "virtually no chance" :

[villain]

Unless someone wants to demonstrate otherwise, we are already well past the point of of being anywhere ready for a No Deal exit in March next year. Looks like there will be blockages apon both sides of the Channel.

How do brexiters feel about Chequers? That is now your only option (other than, of course, remain) As a reminder, Chequers involves potentially permanent membership of the Customs Union, and proposes a fantasy part-membership of The Single Market which we already know is highly likely to be rejected by the EU.

Even if acceptable, it leaves the UK at a huge trading disadvantage with the EU - overwhelmingly our biggest trading partner. The Sun reported that the UK have accepted that ECJ will still be the arbiter, and we will inevitably continue to contribute to the EU budget - but have virtually no say in the running of the EU. Oh, and £39bn.

Really, what on earth is the point?

If you don't agree with that, why not drop a quick email to your MP to confirm if he/she agrees with the analysis?