Do you have any inside info as to how much weaker the lira would go before collapse, or what else could cause collapse?
No. As Colwyn said, the lira has lost 24% against the USD since last summer and shows no sign, as yet, of recovering - and as Stoop mentioned, this is not a recent situation, the lira has been losing ground against USD for years. Way back in 2008/9 it kinda strengthened against the quid for a while, but its all been downhill since then.
Who knows where the tipping point will be, if it ever comes to that.
Can you see a time John F, when if properties are sold in lire, that the proceeds of sale could be at risk?
It depends what you mean by "at risk". I think your sale proceeds could be at risk of devaluation if kept in lira due to increased inflation and a poor performing lira, but the simple way to avoid that is to change it straight into a hard currency.
We're fortunate as the price for our place in Karagozler was agreed in sterling - if you sold an apartment in lira, lets say for 200,000tl last week, you'd have got £43,103 in your back pocket - if you did the same transaction today you'd only get £41,666. For someone selling a large villa that'd be a fair chunk of change to lose.
Some economic forecasters are suggesting that inflation will continue to rise, it was 8.53% in December and unemployment is now at a six year high. The central bank appear to be confident that this crisis is temporary, I hope they're correct.
If anyone wants to read a bit more about the TMFS, and how they operate, here is their web site:
http://www.tmsf.org.tr/2016.tr?bid=235JF