Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum
Information and Services in Turkey Section => Banks, Interest, Money Transfers, Insurance => Topic started by: corbindallas on March 31, 2014, 11:44:20 AM
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So with the local elections declared for the ruling party yesterday and GDP better than predicted for 2013 is the Lira going to strengthen?? On todays showing it is doing well 3.58 from Fridays 3.66 lets hope this continues for a good long honeymoon period.
Next central bank meeting will be even more interesting now after doing what the governement didn't want them to do despite it helping the economy!
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Purely from a selfish point of view.. Hope so and I know that several others will be happy about it too...
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Turkey is seen as the weakest of the "fragile 5". Just because RTE's AK party got a larger than expected % does not mean he is vindicated over all of the corruption accusations. I can't see the investors flooding back in the short term. My opinion is that they will wait until later in the year, after the Presidential elections.
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So with the local elections declared for the ruling party yesterday and GDP better than predicted for 2013 is the Lira going to strengthen?? On todays showing it is doing well 3.58 from Fridays 3.66 lets hope this continues for a good long honeymoon period.
Next central bank meeting will be even more interesting now after doing what the governement didn't want them to do despite it helping the economy!
That's looking a good call at the moment just hit 3.50
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Yes, it has been a volatile day for the Lira. It started badly when Erdogan called on the Central Bank to call an emergency meeting to lower interest rates. The markets were spooked by a possible political intervention in exchange rate policy and the lira went down by 0.6%. But then Babacan smoothed things over and confirmed the independence of the CBank. This was followed by good economic news out of the USA which led to hopes that monetary tapering needn't be so rapid. The Turkish lira, along with the Brazilian real and South African rand, soared away on the news and the lira strengthened by 1.2%. on the day
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Yeah!!
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I agree Eric will do fairly better short term and then climb again but will dip after the big elections, of course with RTE and his cupboard full of skeletons it could completely crash inbetween, if more big issues rear their ugly heads, but thats the forex markets for you with these fragile economies and Turkeys is worse with the political issues. I think it will plane out around the 3.30ish mark if it carries on but again the next central bank meeting will be interesting to see if they have the power to control it independantly of RTE and show the market they are in control!
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This was followed by good economic news out of the USA which led to hopes that monetary tapering needn't be so rapid.
Colwyn my old mucker, surely good economic news for the USA would hasten monetary tapering not slow it down?
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That was my original thought but a Bloomberg article was confident that increasing levels of US employment were counterbalanced by falling inflation (already far below US target). We are not used to worrying about "too low" inflation but when average inflation gets below 1% (as it has in USA) then some goods and services are likely to be in negative inflation i.e. deflation. When that happens theory says people delay spending for months, even a few years, waiting for lower prices in the future - at least some theories say that. That would precipitate a stall, even retreat, in economic growth. Even if that doesn't happen, there is little reason to fear that the US economy is in danger of overheating so there is less impetus behind a rapid reduction of QE. Similarly, with low inflation, there is little need to increase interest rates - something that QE tends to keep low.
That, at least, is what I make of it. One thing is clear. Three of the currencies of the Big 5 emerging economies strengthened by a big stride yesterday so it looks like changes in the lira were not just down to local Turkish issues.
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Cut to the chase guys - how much is an Efes going to cost in May? ;)
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More.
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that's what I suspected, more or less.
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Depends on what original currency you are using to purchase your efes, if exchanging from sterling it will cost you less if buying from lira reserve it will cost you more ;) Glass half full or half empty?