Lira getting Stronger - Why?

[Colwyn]

The Fed (US central bank) starts a two day meeting tomorrow with the betting on it raising interest rates. This is likely to boost the dollar against international currencies (unless the smart money boys and girls have already anticipated this and discounted rates in advance). In the past Basci has said he will match US interest increases. Erdogan has said something equivalent to "Over my dead body!". Should be an interesting (sorry about pun) start to next week.

[Colwyn]

Whoops! One source told me meeting was 10/11th but the Fed calendar says it is 15/16th.

[Scunner]

Shouldn't the lira have weakened? It's getting stronger ever since the rise in US interest rates

[Colwyn]

Yes, it is a bit of a puzzle. A couple of posts ago I mentioned the possibility that the 0.25% rise had been so well trailed, since October, that money markets had already taken this into account. But things are more complex than that. Stock exchanges in the US reacted positively at first but have now sunk down to significant losses. Euro markets have done reasonably well, the FTSE has done pretty well and the Istanbul market even better. So, some markets don't seem to have anticipated the rise in advance and the Turkish currency markets are actually moving the "wrong" way and a number of other Emerging Markets aren't hurting much. I'll look out to see whether any of the financial commentators comes up with a good analysis over the next day or so.

To show how things "should" work - the pound has lost 0.8% against the dollar today, and the euro ) 9%.

[Colwyn]

and the euro ) 9%.

Correction: and the euro 0.9%

[Colwyn]

Dollar back over 3TL again.

[yabanci]

No change in Interest Rates, for the 11th month in a row, following the Central Bank meeting this afternoon.

[usedbustickets]

Unlike the $ to the TL FX rate, the Turkish Lira has continued to do well against the pound.  Less to do with a successful Turkish economy, and more to do with a troubled UK economy, which was not helped by it's Chancellor of the Exchequer talking down the pound last week or perhaps it was the week before.  Yes Bullingham's own lad Gideon went down with his usual case of BSE when things look gloomy, that's not mad cow disease but Blame Someone Else  

[Colwyn]

Odd that UBT. According to The Story, Gordon Brown caused collapse in our economy all by himself and brought down the rest of the world with him. Osborne, on the other hand, has been blown off course by global events over which he had no control, could do nothing about and which no-one could predict.

[kevin3]

  Anyone seen today's  published Beckett report into why Labour were trounced at the last Election.??

  Interesting reading,  for some.!