Lira getting Stronger - Why?

[Colwyn]

That is presumably based on Greco-Turkish economics which says if you have half the number of tourists then you have to double the prices they pay so that you come out even in the end. A version of which is Erdonomics which states that when inflation is high you have to lower interest rates so people can borrow more to compensate.

[JohnF]

I'm proposing you as a board member of the TCB.  You'd be a hit with your grasp of Turkonomics  

JF

[JohnF]

makes you wonder what the lira rate would be against a rising pound!

I think my question has been answered.  The pound has recovered a bit against most major currencies and as a result its sitting at nearly 4.37tl to the pound this evening.

Political turmoil, uncertainty over the future of the HDP deputies and doubts over the independence of the TCB look like making it a bumpy road ahead, as if the past few years haven't been hard enough.

Good news for tourists I suppose, might encourage them to spend a bit more - although, having a passing knowledge of Turkonomics myself, I suspect that prices will rise due to lack of tourists and they'll have to spend more!

JF

[davybill]

Yes but look at the political turmoil ahead in UK according to the stay in the EU, and the  Brexit,?what they are telling us.

[JohnF]

Many have commented that the in/out situation in the UK is one of the reasons the pound has weakened over the past few months.  Six months ago a quid would have bought you €1.40 or thereabouts, today its just crept back to above €1.30.

My point was that a week or so ago the pound was weak and the lira was still losing ground - now that we're seeing a strengthening pound, the lira has weakened considerably against it.  I suspect the result of various exit polls, which show 55% want to remain in the EU, are playing a large part in the pounds revival.  If the vote next month is confirmed as staying in, then I suspect the the pound will take another jump - just in time for the start of the season   

But hey ho, its the Turkish lira we're actually interested in so anything could happen over the next few months.

JF

[Colwyn]

But hey ho, its the Turkish lira we're actually interested in so anything could happen over the next few months.

Yes, so to take the confusion factor of a possible Brexit calamity out of the equation, we should - as usual - take currency guides from USD/TRY whic at the moment hovers just below 3 on 2.99.

[Colwyn]

This morning the dollar was over 3 to TL and looking to go to a record figure. Then, in a couple of minutes, the lira recovered by 1% and the dollar is now at 2.98. I suspect the Central Bank has waded into the market with a fistful of dollars.

[JohnF]

I think you must be right.  It was nosediving against the GBP, USD & EUR first thing then got a bump about half eight or thereabouts.

JF


Edit: I think it may have been Merkels "concerns" being voiced, over the lifting of parliamentary immunity that was highlighted by the media last night, that caused the drop.  TCB will be raiding the piggy bank soon.

[Colwyn]

Oh, there was a Monetary Committee meeting today. I missed that. The base rate remained the same but the overnight lending rate was reduced. Steady change in same direction as last three months. The markets seem to have been pleased with this.

[KKOB]

Oh, there was a Monetary Committee meeting today. I missed that.

Me too. I was deeply engrossed in The Jeremy Kyle Show. The DNA results were back and they proved that the baby she was having wasn't hers.