Lira getting Stronger - Why?

[JohnF]

Kevin - you probably haven't noticed prices creeping up, but many Turks living on 1200-1500tl a month have done.  Rents, utilities, SGK, basic food stuffs etc.

I'm as guilty of not really noticing either, flying visits to Istanbul don't really give me much insight as to local prices - apart from the alcohol!

The biggest danger, in my opinion, is inflation - Turkey has a bit of a history there. My other half was working in Istanbul during the mid nineties when if you got paid in lira you needed a wheelbarrow to pick up your wages.  I remember when I first came here inflation was sixty odd percent.

The AKP built on work done previously to stabilise the economy when they got power in 2002 and to a certain extent since then things have been relatively stable.  Unfortunately, it looks like the wheels are getting a bit wobbly on this financial journey...

This article on bloomberg makes interesting reading:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-10/why-the-lira-s-in-trouble-2017-s-worst-performer-in-charts

JF

[Saga Louts]

Should we not rename this thread as the to is weaker and weaker

[stoop]

John, would you like to explain why you think 3.80 would be such a significant landmark?

I should have said another serious milestone - this is an all time low and despite the TCB doing their best today it's still sitting at just under 3.78.

Stoop - you know as well as I do that Turkonomics will kick in and it won't be vastly cheaper for tourists.  Poor exchange rate...  bump up the prices.  In many cases they have to, most commercial rental agreements are in dollars or euros not lira.

JF

Most tourists don't see it that way though. They look at the £1 v's the TL and base their decisions on that alone.

They are also getting less against the Euro so some see it as a cheap holiday.

[JohnF]

It would be good if they did, turkey could really do with a tourism boost this year.

JF

[stoop]

It would be good if they did, turkey could really do with a tourism boost this year.

JF

Yes I agree but the terrorism is the thing in the way.

[kevin3]

         Plus the wee fella Stoop, but his strength has been in keeping the average Turk feeling better off financially.  Now however----------.?

[kevin3]

           TL 4.72.

[Colwyn]

Dollar now well through 3.9 and on the way to make my guess of 4 before the end of the week. An important decision coming up for Turkey: CB to follow usual financial procedure and raise interest rates; or follow RTE and make an Islamist stand against interest rates (and usury) - which will be wrapped up as a "pro-growth" policy. Turkey's corporations have big dollar debts that are getting more difficult to cover everyday. They can get deeper into trouble.

Does it matter to the Turk on the Bursa dolmus? I will do when the company he/she works for declares 15% redundancy because of "the economic situation".

[JohnF]

In certain sectors in Istanbul this is already happening - legal and financial sectors been shedding staff for a couple of months now.  Marketing budgets slashed and bean counters now being listened to...

One company I work for has put an embargo on new hires and is now touting for (unpaid) interns to pick up the slack.

JF

[YILDIRIM]

firsth message on this subject 29-10-2014 and these day 1 pound = 3.559 lira and now 1 pound = 4.61 lira   somebody change this subject