Author Topic: Lira getting Stronger - Why?  (Read 294465 times)

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Offline Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #40 on: January 31, 2015, 14:02:22 PM »
Given the price of oil and gas then inflation should come down. If RTE insists on celebrating this with a drop in interest rates that could trigger a trashing of the Lira.

Earlier this week Erdogan explained "If interest rates don't fall, inflation doesn't fall either". I suppose this is RTEconomics.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2015, 14:25:05 PM by Colwyn »



Offline kevin3

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #41 on: January 31, 2015, 14:37:47 PM »
For goodness sake don't question  RTEs Economic credentials.   He's a former Simit seller i'll have you know.

         ( at least if the Elections go pear shaped he's got a career to fall back on )

Offline Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #42 on: February 02, 2015, 12:10:09 PM »
The lira is having a good day against the dollar; strengthening by nearly 1%. This follows Basci saying at the end of Friday's press conference that market fears were not appropriate due to the cautious approach of CB to the exchange rate. This seems to indicate that there will not be the "substantial" cut in interest rates that RTE wants; just a small adjustment with which the markets can live. Will the Pres go ballistic? Is Basci's job safe? Wednesday might be interesting.

Offline JohnF

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #43 on: February 02, 2015, 12:15:57 PM »
I suppose this is RTEconomics.

However, he has a far better grasp of Shoeboxonomics...

JF

Offline Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #44 on: February 03, 2015, 11:32:12 AM »
CB Governor Basci had said he would hold an emergency meeting tomorrow to consider rate cuts if the inflation rate fell by more than 1% in January. But it didn't fall that much so tomorrow's meeting is off, Basci is standing up to RTE, the markets are happy, and the TL ought to be in for a good period until the scheduled meeting on the 24th Feb ... unless RTE throws another hissy fit.

Offline Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #45 on: February 04, 2015, 14:29:36 PM »
Yep, they couldn't resist meddling with the Central Bank. Yesterday in Parliament one of RTE's best mates, Nihat Zeybekci (Economy Minister), said that Turkey didn't have to worry about exchange rates. Today he weighed in more strongly by saying a weaker currency might be good for Turkish economy. Then Erdogan went on TV to reinforce the message that rates are too high. Before he began speaking $:TL was 2.421: after he finished it was 2.434 -  about 1% down. Today the £ is quite strong against other currencies so it is even better for those holding £s - about 2% up and over 3.7 to TL. Looks like my June holiday is going to be cheaper than expected.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 14:56:58 PM by Colwyn »

Offline kevin3

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #46 on: February 04, 2015, 17:05:52 PM »
And in another example of political interference the  TMSF has taken over Bank Asya, by order of ??  guess who.?

World financial institutions wont want to touch Turkey with a barge pole at this rate.

Offline Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #47 on: February 04, 2015, 19:09:34 PM »
Actually I have some empathy with the feelings of the government. It is usual these days to praise "independent" Central Banks. People who had nothing else good to say about the New Labour Government, even Tories, praised Gordon Brown for giving the Bank of England "independent status". Not me. OK, it seems having an independent CB seems better than allowing politicians to go on a mad money spurge just before a General Election to boost the ruling party's popularity - just as RTE wants now. But the BoE, and in RTE's eyes the Turkish CB, are not "independent". They are the stooges of the financial markets. The BoE follows policies demanded by the Square Mile of the City of London. Former Governor of the BoE let the cat out of bag when he said that unemployment in the North East of England was a price worth paying for controlling (house price driven) in the South East. The BoE does not take what is good for the British economy as a major factor in its calculations. I'm sure Erdogan sees Basci in the same way.

But I also have some sympathy for Basci. Governors of CBs around the world were fascinated by his innovative policy of controlling exchange markets by talking openly to them. On Friday he calmed markets, not by increasing interest rates, not by "burning" millions of dollars, but by telling the markets that the CB would act cautiously. It worked. The lira firmed, the future looked stable until the next meeting. Then Erdogan and his sidekick weigh-in with strong noises and, within hours, the lira hits an all-time low against the dollar. Apparently Basci considered resigning in the Autumn. He might be considering it again. How long can he expected to keep banging his head against the AKP wall?

Offline KKOB

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #48 on: February 04, 2015, 19:47:44 PM »
It's all very well blathering on about CBs, RTE's, BoEs, and the AKP. Nobody seems to be addressing the real issue here. What effect is all this shenanigans going to have on the EPI (Efes Price Index) ?

Offline kevin3

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #49 on: February 04, 2015, 20:18:24 PM »
When you're trying to get legless on double Ayrans the  EPI wont mean Jack S##t.    ;D

There will be Booze Cruises to Rhodes to consume alcohol.  Breath tests at Turkish Customs.




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