Snap Turkish General Election Called

[Menthol]

Innit 

[JohnF]

Agree with that Kevin. JF I think you are a cert for the "Most Forbidding Post" prize for CBF 2015.

Do you think so?  I wouldn't put anything past him, including imposing martial law if he thought it'd bring forward his plans for a neo-ottoman caliphate.

As it stands, he may be unable to do it democratically - some polls are showing a reduction in support of the AKP.

JF

[Menthol]

There are parallels don't you think with current British politics?

[kevin3]

  God forbid we ever get a UK equivalent of the AKP and their tyrant.

[JohnF]

Lets see if the election actually takes place...

Although no-one has come out and said it'll happen, there seems to be rumblings and rumours that wee Reggie has some plans for the next few weeks.  And none of these plans involve a democratically elected government.

His ultimate goal is to shift Turkey over to a presidential style of government, but to do that he needs an AKP majority to change the constitution.  To achieve that, he need the HDP vote to drop below the 10% threshold and for those AKP voters who went over to the MHP to return to the fold - there are no signs that this is definitely going to happen.

So...  plan B.  If the violence in the south East and in Istanbul escalates, the current constitution allows for extraordinary measures to be taken by the president when there is no government in place (now you see why he was so keen to dismiss the possibility of a coalition).

Murat Yetkin of the HDN explains it better than I can, note his last CYA paragraph!

That turns attention to what kind of extra powers Erdoğan could use during the two months and one week until the prospective Nov. 1 election.

Articles 91, 92, 104, 119, 120 and 121 of the constitution are crucial for the use of extraordinary powers. If the parliament is in recess or not working, as in the current case, the president, for example, can point to the worsening security situation and declare a state of emergency after a president-chaired cabinet meeting.

That would be subject to a change or cancellation by the parliament only after being published directly in the Official Gazette. If the parliament did not annul it, the president could issue “Emergency Decrees in Power of Law” (OKHK) in related fields of the State of Emergency (OHAL). The difference between the ordinary “Decrees in Power of Law” and the emergency ones are that the latter do not need parliamentary approval (and are only subject to cancelation by parliament). They are also not subject to judicial procedure, since the president cannot be tried at court for any crime other than treason.

The president even has the authority to declare war if the country is attacked when parliament is closed, which could also lead to the cancellation or postponement of elections.

None of this means that Erdoğan will definitely use all these powers during the limited period until the election. The situation in Turkey is not yet at those extremes, but it is good to know what exactly the powers of the president are in the event of emergencies that he decides on.

JF

It may have been a "forbidding" post in Colwyns opinion, but it looks like the opposition parties are now coming out and saying the the AKP will do anything to stay in power, right up to declaring a civil war.

"Opposition party representatives have voiced concerns that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) may resort to any means possible, including igniting a civil war, to postpone the upcoming election in November and remain in power if it sees another election defeat on the horizon."

Link: TZ

JF