Author Topic: Referendum looking tight, or is it?  (Read 7746 times)

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Offline JohnF

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Referendum looking tight, or is it?
« on: April 03, 2017, 11:17:11 AM »
Seen a few opinion polls recently and it all looks a bit tight. 

A good number have the No camp ahead - while the Jamesinturkey blog, which uses a tracker over all available (established) polls had the Yes camp only slightly ahead.

Reuters published an article on Thursday where it quoted two AKP sources as saying that the Yes vote has fallen away from their projected 55/56% to 52% in recent weeks.

However on Friday, jamesinturkey reported on a poll conducted at the end of last week which put the Yes camp on 61.4% and the No camp on 38.6%.  Curiously though, 29% of folks polled said they were undecided - more about it at jamesinturkey.com.

Its worth remembering that the wee fella has said he wants 60%.  Will he get it?  What will be the impact on foreigners living in Turkey if he does?  What will happen if he doesn't get the majority? 

As had been said often about Turkey just now, interesting times indeed.

JF



Offline Jacqui Harvey

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Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2017, 11:33:58 AM »
Reg is like Nippy, he will keeping going until he gets the result he wants.

Offline KKOB

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Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2017, 11:34:42 AM »
I wouldn't trust the pollsters. I've never told an exit- or street-pollster the truth in my life.  ;)

Offline JohnF

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Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2017, 11:44:56 AM »
I wouldn't trust the pollsters.

That's actually a very pertinent point.  Jamesinturkey disregarded a recent poll because he was wary over its provenance, and the fact it put the No camp waaaay ahead.

Pollsters can be just as partisan towards a result as the politicians are about getting the result.

JF

Offline Colwyn

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Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2017, 18:01:18 PM »
Perhaps it all depends on whether Turks in the EU defy the "grandchildren of Nazis" and vote for Super-President.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-referendum-europe-erdogan-idUKKBN17517R?il=0


Offline JohnF

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Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2017, 18:05:14 PM »
He's apparently been losing the MHP vote, hence the chest beating nationalistic rhetoric.

JF

Offline JohnF

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Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2017, 08:39:34 AM »
Ach well, it looks like most of the pollsters have the Yes vote ahead, some by a fair amount.

Only glimmer of hope is that they got it spectacularly wrong in most of the recent major elections/referendums...

JF

Offline Scunner

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Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2017, 10:26:33 AM »
Well as someone said, No voters may be telling pollsters they voted yes for fear of being arrested and jailed under the State of emergency.

Let's hope so.

Offline JohnF

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Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2017, 10:27:59 AM »
Aye.

JF

Offline Scunner

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Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2017, 10:45:31 AM »
Might be Nerja next year




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