Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum
Information and Services in Turkey Section => Banks, Interest, Money Transfers, Insurance => Topic started by: Kevin Sowten on September 29, 2014, 07:09:52 AM
-
Reached the dizzy heights of 3.70 overnight on Coinmill :D
-
And still high at 3.67 this morning :o
-
Still 3.70 at the moment !
http://coinmill.com/GBP_TRY.html
-
Coinmill always was very favourable :) the bank rate showing on CNBC Finance programme is fluctuating between 3.68 and 3.69...good for holiday makers and people earning in GBP.
More worrying for business is the US$ rate of 2.26.
-
Coinmill gets its data from Yahoo Finance. Saying that, its currently showing a rate of 3.701 and Finansbank is showing 3.700 (mid market rates).
You are so right about the USD Nichola, the TL has dropped even further this morning and is now at $2.283. Other than for a very short period in January (before the TCB raised interest rates), this a record low for the TL over a twelve month period against the GBP & USD - the concern this time (in respect of the TL v USD) is that it has been a gradual decline over several months.
Moodys (the International Credit Agency), estimate that 80% of Turkeys corporate loans are in foreign currency, and I suspect the majority of those will be in USD. You don't need a degree in economics to work out the impact of a weak lira versus a strong US dollar...
JF
-
But it helps :D
-
Ok, in simple terms (just for you Mr S :) ), a weak TL v USD means:
A high proportion of businesses will be paying higher rents as Turkish landlords tend to use hard currencies such as USD or EUR.
Oil and gas is traded in USD which means higher prices for doğal gas, petrol, diesel and lpg. The knock on effect is that transportation costs rise - majority of retail distribution in Turkey is by road - and as transportation costs rise, so do the ultimate retail prices.
The cost of imported goods will rise.
Companies like THY, who have committed to long term deals in USD, will find themselves having to commit... plain phucked.
All of the above contribute to price rises for the consumer - inflation last month rose to 9.54%, against an average of 7.45% last year. The Central Bank forecast that the inflation rate at the end of 2014 will be 7.6%. Good luck with that.
JF
-
Just seen this on TZ:
New markups are at door (http://www.todayszaman.com/business_new-markups-are-at-door_360102.html)
Makes the inflation forecast look even more achievable... not!
JF