OPO and I probably come from very different positions on the political spectrum; I learned my economics by reading Marx' Capital and I doubt whether he did. However, we pretty much share our economic analyses of the prospects now facing the UK. Cameron flouncing out of Brussels so that he could arrive back in the UK showing an open palm saying "In my hand I don't have a piece of paper" is only the start of a political unravelling. Where it will lead us is very murky.
Today the EU stands at 26 versus 1. It seems very likely that the 26 will move towards creating as much policy as possible without reference to the UK. Is it going to be possible to ring-fence all EU institutions so they do not contribute to the implementation of soley "Group of 26" (EU Core) issues? Cameron says "Yes"; he will veto every attempt to do that. I think he is being a trifle optimistic. Sakosy has probably already prepared his plans for hollowing-out EU27 institutions and reforming them as EU26 structures (after all he comprehensively picked Cameron clean this week).
At the same time the Tory Eurosceptics have tasted blood and, backed by some loud voices in the Tory press, will want to push Cameron further into a corner. They will demand various "re-negotiations" of all the agreements we have made. They would like to end the application of the EU Social Chapter to the UK including things like the Working Time Directive. I cannot see what possible incentive the 26 would have to re-negotiate with us. So Cameron will have to go home with nothing, again, and face demands for an "in/out" referendum.
Of course, all this may not happen. I hope it does not. But if it does, OPO's estimate 3m unemployed may be well short.