Lira getting Stronger - Why?

[JohnF]

Five bob.  Take it or leave it.

JF

[usedbustickets]

I'll swap it for an old 50tl note, no I'll do better I'll swap it for an old 50,000,000 lira note.  As J.F said take or leave it, the time and tide of the FX market waits for no man.  Do we have a deal  

[Colwyn]

You pair make Wonga look generous.

[Colwyn]

Quietly the £ hit a record high against the the TL this afternoon = 4.3652. The $ also strong but not at record level yet. My 50TL note now down to £11.45.

P.S. Looks like I spotted the start of a run on the lira. $ now at record high and £ has hit 4.4. I'll have to have a look around news stories for the last few hours to find out what is happening.

P.P.S. Well that was obvious enough. The coalition talks between AKP and CHP broke up without agreement this afternoon. Currency markets promptly plummetted.

[JohnF]

Yep, and you can guess who put his foot in it...

Referring to “some who say” the CHP and the AK Parti should form a coalition, Erdoğan said it would be “suicidal” to enter a coalition if the views of “one side” do not match with the principles of the other side, (implying the AK Parti, without directly naming it.). Source

He's gaggin' for another election - he really does think the AKP will stroll it after the events of recent weeks.  Unfortunately, he may be right.

JF

[usedbustickets]

OK Colwyn do you want to take that deal now?  Or would you rather wait for Prez 'Wonga' Reg to drive the price down further?  

[usedbustickets]

Lira has fallen further to near 4.44 to the pound in the last hour

[Colwyn]

And the $ is also strong. The vast majority's of Turkish companies' international investment is denominated in dollars. So the investments they agreed 12 months ago today cost 30% more to repay. That is seriously bad news for the Turkish economy and is not looking like getting any better in the next few months.

[villain]

Another jump today - 4.47 now.

The next milestone is 4.5.

That would make for easier calculations when we arrive this week. Scratch that - maybe it'll be 10tl note = £2.00 by the time we fly home....

[Colwyn]

$ is up to 2.86 but I think Zeybekci has said the currency would be comfortable at 3 to the dollar - which, more-or-less, guarantees that it will be. Central Bank policy meeting tomorrow. I'm not expecting anything from that; is anyone else?