Author Topic: Lira getting Stronger - Why?  (Read 291457 times)

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Offline Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #1080 on: May 24, 2018, 12:40:49 PM »
 The fix doesn't seem to have worked. The lira has given back over half of its post-hike gains losing 4.5% to dollar and pound this morning.



Offline Karennina

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #1081 on: May 24, 2018, 12:59:03 PM »
Just checked on XE and it appears to be on the rise again! :(

Offline Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #1082 on: May 24, 2018, 14:56:31 PM »
So what do the Central Bank and the AKP Economic Management Team do now? They have thrown 3% at the problem and the lira is still in the run. Chuck another 2% after the first chunk to prove they are standing behind the currency? Can you remember what happened in the UK on "Black Wednesday" in 1992 when George Soros walked away with a speculative £1bn and Norman Lamont (one of those "safe hands" Tory Chancellors) cost us £3.4bn in a few hours? Or do they hope Erdogan comes out and says he supports all measures taken by Turkey's independent Central Bank? If CB had stepped in with 3% a week ago there probably wouldn't be a problem now. But doubts and suspicions have built up in the market and, possibly, the speculative vultures (today's George Soros'es) are circulating. Oh dear.

Offline JohnF

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #1083 on: May 24, 2018, 15:05:59 PM »
As I said before, too little, too late.

You can see the same pattern developing against sterling:



Wouldn't surprise me if we're right back where we started by tomorrow afternoon.

JF

Offline LeeGlo

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #1084 on: May 24, 2018, 23:05:47 PM »
TRNC (Northern Cyprus) are so concerned about the TL that they are considering changing their currency

https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-lira/turkish-cypriots-consider-abandoning-sinking-lira

Offline Scunner

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #1085 on: May 24, 2018, 23:59:47 PM »
That's very interesting - I wonder if they can? Never really understood how they relate to Ankara...

Offline JohnF

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #1086 on: May 25, 2018, 00:41:28 AM »
False news  :)

Constitution doesn't allow for it. Good column inches though...

JF

Offline Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #1087 on: May 25, 2018, 09:37:41 AM »
Reuters is reporting the CB rate hike as a victory for Şimşek. Together with close colleagues, he first persuaded PM Yirdirim of the need for the hike, who then persuaded Erdogan to put aside his opposition (or at least voicing it).

https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-economy-primeminister/rpt-as-lira-tumbled-turkeys-prime-minister-won-erdogan-over-for-rate-hike-idUSL5N1SW0Z4

Offline Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #1088 on: May 25, 2018, 17:04:28 PM »
The lira has finished the week well; up 0.7% against $ and over 1% against € and £. Looks like Simsek's assurances that the Government will back any further actions the CB deems necessary have quietened things down. It may work - if Erdogan is able to keep quiet about the evils of interest in advance of the elections (a pretty big "if" that).

Offline JohnF

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #1089 on: May 25, 2018, 17:19:36 PM »
I think he'll keep his mouth shut for a bit, the whole slide was on the back of his comments in respect of the economy and how he was going to be more hands on.

JF




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