UK and other opinion polls results of late have been very poor indicators of outcome, so can you trust the Turkish ones? If they are correct - and the last official ones were some days ago - the HDP will cross the 10% threshold obtain seats, and perhaps more importantly there will be no transfer of HDP votes/seats to other parties, that has previously assisted the AKP. The overall AKP vote is predicted to fall, then we are likely to see AKP as the largest party but with no overall majority so likely outcome will be a coalition AKP and Nationalist MHP government. On that basis Reg's grandiose plans for a Presidential democracy are out of the window, as indeed are any plans for any Kurdish homelands, whether in an independent, semi-autonomous or in any other form.
In the AKP/MHP scenario the most interesting thing will be whether the new government will put Prez Reg into a 'constitutionally correct ceremonial Presidency' box or whether the AKP Ministers and Deputies continue to take orders, and indeed report to Prez. Reg, rather than the Prime Minister. And more importantly will their MHP coalition partners put up with it?
One thing is for sure, the election is unlikely to immediately settle the big issues facing Turkey. Whatever the election outcome, the ride will be more than a little bumpy, politically, economically and socially for Turkey and it's people in the next few months.
My predicition - for what it is worth - is that Prez Reg will almost guarantee it will get worse, before it gets even a little better. He is not someone capable of building alliances, only seeing the 'us' and the rest being enemies, and he will abuse the Presidential position to push things his way. Particularly after he is denied all that he wants by the democratic ballot, you will see the even more terrible Reg come out. Hope I am wrong, and that there enough people in politics, business, police, judiciary, and even the Army to face him down.
