How damaging are Russian sanctions going to be to the Turkish economy and people? At present the Russian bans cover: the import of Turkish fruit, veg, poultry and salt; the sale of charter holidays; and construction projects unless special permission has been granted. In addition there may be an informal discouragement of textile imports. Maybe the most important potential sanction would be the cessation of oil/gas supplies.
To take the last. Will Russia really do it? Do you remember when oil hit $100 a barrel in January 2008? Well eight years on it is only $37 a barrel and the Russian economy is suffering. Go back to last May when oil was over 65$. Then there $ would buy less than 50 roubles: now it buys more than 73. Russia's currency crisis is worse than Turkey's. Can Russia really afford to turn off the taps? Ironically, the low value of the Russian currency could actually be bad news for Turkey because it makes Turkish imports more expensive in Russia so people may stop buying them even without sanctions. It also makes foreign holidays more expensive for Russians.
Most Turkish economic commentators don't seem too worried about the impact of Russian sanctions in the medium term, even if there is a short term hiccough in the economy. What do things look like on the ground?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35209987
