Eh?
I would blame John F !!!Since he is Gruppenfuhrer of CBF I won't be surprised if you are missing from the forum for a few days.
You are the Wyatt Earp of northwest Wrexham?
Is there any option other than an interest rate rise?Yes an interest rate cut,if the inflation rate is lower when the figures are announced on Feb 3rd.
I suppose this is RTEconomics.
Not really funny your comment KKOB
KKOB I just felt your comments were being disrespectful to Colwyn`s interesting and serious post.
If you thought your comments were `funny` in my opinion it wasn`t ... thats all
KKOB I just felt your comments were being disrespectful to Colwyn`s interesting and serious post.
Echo girl surely you mean, 325TL to the pound? :'( :'( :'(
3.8132 now- highest since the zeros came off I think. Will we see 4 this year??If the Central Bank cuts more than 0.5% in two week's time, or if it only cuts that much and RTE and sidekick Zeybekci throw a major wobbly, you might see 4 before the end of Feb 24th or perhaps the next day.
Let's hope the soup survives. ;)Of course I meant to say that RTE was hosting the lunch; not hosing it. My apologies to the soup.
Coinmill giving 4.00 :)
"Hold steady, me hearties"?Which is exactly what the Central Bank did today at their monthly meeting leaving interest rates alone.Over to Reg now for his rant.
So if the result of the UK General Election is a majority, or a quickly convened coalition, government we could possibly see the £ to TL rate around 4TL to the £.You might not have to wait for May. £ at 3.93 this afternoon.
RTE couldn't contain himself and is mouthing off again, are things falling apart before the elections.?Any links Kevin?.
Even the Pope is out to topple him with his "Dark Force ". Today he has warned the Pope to be quiet.
His son lost a slander case against a newspaper yesterday. The Armed Forces are speaking out.
Something going on - from a touch over 4 to 4.07 all in a day.
Anybody who predicted that is entitled to advise tourists on what the exchange rate will be in August.
Can't blame RTE for everything Kevin. The £ is up against every major currency in the world - except the Mexican peso. We must have had an election result or something.
Back up to Tl. 4.14 The President has spoken. ??
Or positive in the fact we are not going to be bankrupted by left wing idiots hell bent on spending what we don't have :)
hope you look as young as your avatar!!That photo was taken over 60 years ago. I've hardly changed a bit - just got rather more innocent and naive
Not the lira weakening for a change, simply the pound going up to 4.11.
Well £ gained 1% against $ yesterday, which helped it on its way. Although the $ had been gaining against TL for a few days it actually fell back yesterday (still at a high level though).Not the lira weakening for a change, simply the pound going up to 4.11.
You sure? The lira has fallen against the GBP, USD & EUR this past couple of days.
JF
4 500 at change shop Calis just now. Brilliant.Are you sure that is the selling price? Looks more like buying cost.
It has been as high as 4.16 today but since dropped back to 4.11. Volatile to say the least !Wow! Down and down ($ down 0.88)! Has Basci been throwing money at it (under instruction?) to avoid the embarassment of all-time lows before the election?
Just taken 400TL out of Turkish ATM. I'll know tomorrow whether the bank has charged me -nmore, or less, than £100. I'm betting I'll be a large Efes on the good side.So I win that bet with me. The 400TL cost me £98.14 at a rate of 4.075 to the £. Which is more than enough to buy me a draught Efes during "Happy Hour" (1pm - 7pm and non-stop Blues).
4.7 in Fethiye Changes shops.
They were giving 4.10 in Fethiye today. So it has steadied a bit.Was that at the clothes shop? The good old 4 point TEN!
But tonight I think I'll splash £10 on a steak (and see how much of it I can manage).
Well, how much of it did you manage?I managed three quarters of it and was very pleased with myself. The restaurant boss, Mev, was most concerned but I assured him it was down to me and not his kitchen. Every time I order steaks in Britain or Turkey I swear "Never again". I cook better at home and a fraction of the price (a smaller fraction of UK prices). And when in Turkey I should eat Turkish food.
I can't find any news on this. Do you have a link please?
When I asked in TEB bank yesterday they said they are open on Monday,Nichola.
4.05 at the Dikmen change office in Fethiye this morning.
whether Pres. Reg crosses into Syria to push back the Kurds or not.I suppose a bomber in the eastern town of Suruc might cause some doubt. Rather more caused by a pro-ISIS demonstration in Istanbul which was allowed to take place unchallenged by police but when protests against this were held in Istanbul and Ankara out came the teargas and water canons again. However, an incursion into Syria to fight the most effective force taking on ISIS would be far more major and have incalculable consequences for relations between Turkey and the USA, EU and NATO. I mean that literally: I tried to figure out what the consequences might be and couldn't come up with any clear answer.
AS expected no change in Central Bank's interest rates this month.
“We find the central bank of Turkey somewhat smoothening its dovish stance,”
And Colwyn's 50 lira note is worth £11.05Yeah rub it in why don't you? And since you posted it has gone down to £11.01.
Yep, and to think I was almost suicidal changing the last of our lira back at 3.11
And Colwyn's 50 lira note is worth £11.05Yeah rub it in why don't you? And since you posted it has gone down to £11.01.
it's inching ever closer to 3tl to the dollar.2.92 this afternoon. 3.00 by the end of the week? Will any action be triggered when it passes 3? Basci seems to be sitting on his hands.
Basci has said he is saving rate rises until the Fed increases its own interest rates. Although this could happen in September it might be postponed to March 2016. Favourite in the betting is December.That would be the first opportunity after Reg's likely enforced General Election in November....so much for the Turkish Central Bank independence, and they wonder why the lira continues to plummet!!
Wow I can't believe how many lira you get to the pound now. Great time to change your life savings into TL!
I reckon that was a daft move Stoop.
5TL/£ by month end. Any takers?
In which case are we going to have a competition to guess the TL rate when Stoop comes out next?
I'll go for 18.75TL to the £ ;)
In which case are we going to have a competition to guess the TL rate when Stoop comes out next?
I'll go for 18.75TL to the £ ;)
Ha Ha - I could fix that by changing my dates to suit ;)
We are buying at a time when we think it's a good deal. Neither you or I have any idea what the rate will be next June - when we go out again. It just might go the other way - who knows?
I actually said I couldn't give a damn based on the fact it won't make that much difference to me.You are right Stoops it is not - well at this stage anyway - about losing or gaining everything, it is about marginal loss or gain.
Deal? Someone else might want to take the other tenner off you? :)
If it goes to 5 we will be about £48 down.
As they say in the Army, you cant beat Barrack room lawyers,?They say lots of daft things in the Army.
The Central Banks support of the lira seems to be working at the moment,with the pound now below the 4.50 lira mark.
and the euro ) 9%.Correction: and the euro 0.9%
By the way the Lira is getting stronger.LoL
maybe getting even worse.
Last June I took home 50TL that had cost me £12. There was much much merriment as its value faded to £11.01 over a few weeks. Now my 50TL is worth £12.25. Hooray I'm rich!
Down to 4.07 at the moment, will go below 4.00. ??
it seems to me that's it only the big money people who are shouting for us to remain "in".Hey, I didn't know I was a big money person! Perhaps there is something in the pipeline for me. Hope it gets through in time for me to take wheelbarrow-loads of £s over to Turkey to change into lira.
a) Erdogan has returned from his South American "charm tour" where his security agents behaved as they would in Turkey and beat theXXXXliving daylights out of protesters - that upset one or two of the more finicky locals. Hilarious laughed out loud at this comment
Truth be told, the practice of Sukuk (Islamic lending) is just a pretty convoluted way round charging interest.Quite so. It is one thing to do this for a single transaction. It is quite another to guarantee a 10.2% profit (not interest) per month on your Turkish bank account in advance of your deposit. But is is easily achieved by the miracle of creative accounting.
I suspect that if the EU vote in the UK is to keep the status quo we'll see these gains wiped out and the lira heading back towards 4.50 (to the pound) or thereabouts.It might be b.ll.x but if it isn't it will be too late for me anyway since my holiday in Turkey will be nearly over by then. Still, if there is a bounceback against the Euro as well that will help my September holiday in Portugal - the £ is rubbish for buying € at the moment. But suppose the vote goes the other way? Well, I guess British people won't be able to afford foreign holidays at all then.
Still, if there is a bounceback against the Euro as well that will help my September holiday in Portugal - the £ is rubbish for buying € at the moment
god knows what it will be in Olu Deniz !!
Kumsal........always a great Pideyep best place to go in Olu. Food and view are great and very reasonable!
Well the new Governor has announced a 0.5% cut in interest rates. Since this is what the majority of market analysts had been predicting the announcement appears to have been greeted with approval and the lira has strengthened from 2.83 to 2.81 against the dollar. Not a huge jump but it will please Governor Murat Cetinkaya.
Any news about this afternoon's meeting?
A dynasty is on the cards.
Not just the pound ColwynI know. It was a bit of a selfish post. I've only got £s to spend! [P.S. Plus the 50TL I have treasured since last year].
makes you wonder what the lira rate would be against a rising pound!
But hey ho, its the Turkish lira we're actually interested in so anything could happen over the next few months.Yes, so to take the confusion factor of a possible Brexit calamity out of the equation, we should - as usual - take currency guides from USD/TRY whic at the moment hovers just below 3 on 2.99.
Oh, there was a Monetary Committee meeting today. I missed that.
We are buying at a time when we think it's a good deal. Neither you or I have any idea what the rate will be next June - when we go out again. It just might go the other way - who knows?
Yes I do get it that you thought that 4.5/£ was probably a better deal than you felt you could get next June so you invested now.
I think that is nonsense :D - but I further agree with you that the rate could go up or down, and that nobody knows for sure.
I reckon the rate in June will be better for those with pounds than the 4.5 you got. You think in all probability the exact opposite is likely. Fair enough, different views are good.
I have £30 to a charity of your choice if the rate in June next year is lower than 4.5/£ - I am that confident - are you £30 to charity confident that you got a good deal (i.e. if the rate next June will be higher than 4.5 you pay £30 to a charity of my choice)? :D
Not long now Scunner. 4.31 today. Not sure I'm gonna lose this now but if I do then I'll just buy more
The markets certainly think its going to be a Remain vote this week and sterling has taken a bit of a boost as a result.Somebody believes that the majority of voting Brits won't go crackers on Thursday and torpedo the UK economy. I do hope they are right. George Soros predicts the £ will lose 20% of value if the disaster of Brexit happens - and he's the chap that made billions out of Norman Lamont's bumbling incompetence in just a few hours some years ago. I wish I had as much confidence in the outcome as the markets seem to do.
George Soros predicts the £ will lose 20% of value if the disaster of Brexit happens - and he's the chap that made billions out of Norman Lamont's bumbling incompetence in just a few hours some years ago.Yes Soros the lover of the Euro, which he has always argued is the way the UK should go... so I do not think people need be by swayed by his overall judgement.
As a younger man I worked in a number of bookies' offices. I have no great trust in the knowledgedge they have - only their ability to do sums
I didn't say they were correct in their view, just that they have taken their lead from the financial markets. Or maybe its the other way round?No, my view is that the odds are merely based on amounts of money at risk so that the bookmaker (nearly) always comes out on top. My guess is that a lot more money has been put down by Remain punters, so they won't get a lot back. Whether they are Remain voters we can't tell. Perhaps they are Leave voters thinking "Well at least if we lose the vote I'll have a few quid to console myself with the odd couple pints!". Bookies always hedge their bets; why not punters?
Still not got the hang of the Quote function then, UBT. I say nothing about your grasp of finance.Appears I have got the hang of it, cos I got your immediate attention and response!!
Not good for the economy when the TCB is doing the bidding of someone who ultimately wants zero percent interest rates...I have a basic understanding how usury-free banking works, but not Islamic Central Banking in the absence of interest. I thought I might try to get the beginnings of an understanding of it. It is hard going but here is a relatively brief overview of the basic economic theory - not easy but it did give me some glimmer of understanding.
But you knew that anyway, didn't you?
Today the £ has fallen to a 31 year low against the $. Those charming Brexit people told me this definitely wouldn't happen and anyone who said it would was a member of Project Fear.: the naughty little Brexitliars! The only "good" news is that the TL has done even worse so you'll get more lira to the pound. Not doing me much good at the moment since I am in Euroland.
Portugal seems to be doing quite well this year. Busiest I've seen it for many a year.There were certainly lots of people walking the Estoril-Cascais promenade this afternoon celebrating Republic Day.
time to hit the doviz and get a wee bargain for a while maybe?
When do they decide what the rate will be?
Apart from the Price Waterman bit (?) I agree entirely.
What Price Waterman bit? Are you slipping even more confusion into this?
Apart from the Price Waterman bit (?) I agree entirely.
All reports I read and heard quoted Deloitte. :)Blimey, PWC and Deloittes? It could be the strangest government-toppling coup ever. Two of the Big Four accounting firms conspiring in revolution!
Yeah, stick that forty quid in yer knickers for a rainy day.Bernie forgot to pack her knickers.
I heard she left them on the plane
4.19..cum on 5
So far the central bank hasn't made any efforts to prop up the lira (not that they're short of the funds to do it) so maybe they're going to see how far it'll go.
Yesterdays meeting was cancelled "by order". It will take place today, chaired by guess who.??
Turkey's Central Bank has shrugged off Erdogan's attempts at intervention and made small interest rate rises.
freezing of the accession process to the EU by the European ParliamentSo unfair after Barmy Boris saying in September that he supported Turkey's accession to the EU when he was in discussion with the W***erer in Ankara. (You know, that Boris chap who warned that Turkey was imminently about to join the EU and 70 million Turks would be heading for the UK unless we voted Brexit and, now we are going to leave, is advising people as to who should join!).
I think we were buying lira at around this level just before the referendum.Yep, the pound and the lira are equally weak.
Quote from speech last night by the wee fella:Well the Bankers have taken no notice, and raised the interest rate 5o points.
“I have nothing against the independence of the Central Bank, but I cannot allow my people’s will and rights to be taken away with high interest rates,”
Kinda sums his view up.
JF
I got 4.36 today.
I got 4.36 today.
It is higher than that in the U.K. Bernie, Where did you get your money exchanged?
It is higher than that in the U.K. Bernie
I got 4.36 today.
not one of you wished me happy birthday.You didn't get my card then?
not one of you wished me happy birthday. Well except lotty n somebody else a couple days before..
As for weeing on my parade all you arse holes did that on November 20th and not one of you wished me happy birthday.Don't fret about it Bernie. I have on here since 2003 and no-one has ever wished me "Happy Birthday".
all you arse holes...............
I can see now you are just being malicious.I have never met Highlander but have some knowledge of him from his posts and actions on here and am fairly confident in saying I don't think he is capable of being malicious. You wrote a "jokey quip"; H read a "foul insult". Just a breakdown in the meaning and intention of words. Don't let's escalate it, eh?
I hear Tayyip, Jose and Christiano will be meeting next summerWhy/ Do they use lira there?
on the beautiful holiday island of Caixa de Sapatos.
Why/ Do they use lira there?I believe they take any currency.
Big lira fight back since yesterday
Lira steadily losing ground to both GBP & USD despite even more national organisations and institutions selling off their foreign currency reserves.
JF
Well done to the wee fella. All those folks who changed their dollars, sterling and euros into lira have now just lost money.
Dollar back up to 3.48 (high of 3.52) today and sterling up to 3.43.
Never mind, at least they enjoyed free ayran and kebabs and some even scored a free headstone.
JF
Word/Insert/Symbols/More Symbols/Currency - about 20-25 places below Basic Latin on the list.
Colwyn, where did you get your tl sign. I like that. :)
Here ... ₺
₺
₺
₺
₺
₺
₺
Yep, still going up.
Thanks for the additional information davybillYour welcome,
It wasn't that long ago we were wondering if 3.5 to $ might be a temporary ceiling for the ₺. This morning it touched 3.7.
It wasn't that long ago we were wondering if 3.5 to $ might be a temporary ceiling for the ₺. This morning it touched 3.7. Even the £ is rising against ₺ - the only major world currency against which it is doing well.That's good keep it going.
Why on earth would you want to "keep it going"?Its lovely to wind you up John,as you have when you said folks living over here were nuts, or don't give a s---.
A lira in freefall does no-one any good, unless of course you're an ex-pat living off a sterling/euro/dollar pension who has no regard for how this will affect Turkey as a whole.
Getting ominously close to 3.80 against the USD today - that will be a very serious milestone.
JF
Why on earth would you want to "keep it going"?
A lira in freefall does no-one any good, unless of course you're an ex-pat living off a sterling/euro/dollar pension who has no regard for how this will affect Turkey as a whole.
Getting ominously close to 3.80 against the USD today - that will be a very serious milestone.
JF
Why on earth would you want to "keep it going"?Its lovely to wind you up John,as you have when you said folks living over here were nuts, or don't give a s---.
A lira in freefall does no-one any good, unless of course you're an ex-pat living off a sterling/euro/dollar pension who has no regard for how this will affect Turkey as a whole.
Getting ominously close to 3.80 against the USD today - that will be a very serious milestone.
JF
John, would you like to explain why you think 3.80 would be such a significant landmark?
John, would you like to explain why you think 3.80 would be such a significant landmark?
I should have said another serious milestone - this is an all time low and despite the TCB doing their best today it's still sitting at just under 3.78.
Stoop - you know as well as I do that Turkonomics will kick in and it won't be vastly cheaper for tourists. Poor exchange rate... bump up the prices. In many cases they have to, most commercial rental agreements are in dollars or euros not lira.
JF
It would be good if they did, turkey could really do with a tourism boost this year.
JF
somebody change this subject :)
somebody change this subject :)
Why change the subject? The topic is discussing the lira versus other currencies?
JF
An important decision coming up for Turkey: CB to follow usual financial procedure and raise interest rates; or follow RTE and make an Islamist stand against interest rates
+2.0% to stabilize theeconomycurrency.
Central Bank didn't go for +2.0% nor +0.5% nor +0.25% for the main policy rate. It opted for 0.0%. The imprint of Erdogan's jackboots all over the decision. Not likely to make foreign investors keen on Turkey.
Sorry, just amazed how things are going. It is £1.03 for five TL so I was just shocked.It may just be thruppence to you but to currency wonks such matters are of vital importance.
Its ok, truth be told I was half expecting it get closer to five than it has today.
Maybe its about time someone updated the Efes Price Index... 15tl for a 50cl by start of season?
JF
KKOB will be taking bets ... but I doubt he will be paying out.
Seems to be recovering - the way it was going earlier on this morning five looked a sure bet by COB. Lets hope the wee fella keeps his mouth shut tomorrow, he often says something incredibly stupid on a Friday and give the markets serious jitters.Reuters report in the last hour: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan declared his opposition to the central bank's interest rate corridor policy in comments reported on Friday and reaffirmed his view that interest rates cause inflation, "not tomatoes, not pepper" ... Raising interest rates influences the exchange rate and inflation in a negative way,
JF
My local for the past month or is €1.50 for a 50cl of Estrella, the equivalent to 6tl. There is simply no comparison with the additive infested product named Efes.
(https://s29.postimg.org/vv7auz20z/IMG_20161226_WA0000.jpg) (https://postimg.org/image/vv7auz20z/)
JF
Tempted to get some holiday money out early I can get 4.69 to the £ at a local Cash Generator.
The confrontation centering on interest rates: President wanting them low; head of CB saying they must rise.
All branches of Ramsdens in the UK have recieved a memo stating that once their stock of Turklish Lira are gone, they will no longer stock Turkish Lira.
All branches of Ramsdens in the UK have recieved a memo stating that once their stock of Turklish Lira are gone, they will no longer stock Turkish Lira.
I never thought of using my TL in Harry Ramsden's. Next time I'm in Chester I'll let you know how I got on. :)
Mined or minted ?
According to my phone the lira is now at 4.8 to the pound. How long before it hits 5?
All you 'would be' financiers will make NO difference to the world's economy but I'm sure it keeps you out of mischief. Currencies rise and currencies fall and always will. If you can live day to day, month to month etc. just accept it and use the fluctuation for friendly banter.
Chances are it'll recover, but then it may not. :)Lira having a good day and has made back a big chunk of its Monday losses.
Looks like a 90% chance of a rise.
Looks like a 90% chance of a rise.
A 0.25% rise in UK interest rates. Lira now up to 5.11 to the pound.
Just shows the post Brexit reduction wasn’t needed. We are back where we were before the vote. Carney is a fool!??? Have you come off your medication, Stoop?
Just shows the post Brexit reduction wasn’t needed. We are back where we were before the vote. Carney is a fool!??? Have you come off your medication, Stoop?
Just shows the post Brexit reduction wasn’t needed. We are back where we were before the vote. Carney is a fool!??? Have you come off your medication, Stoop?
His maths is obviously as good as most "brexiteers", i.e. seriously flawed.
JF
Well it means we are back to where we were last August, I think interest rates started before then :D
Before the referendum the pound was worth 1.3€ and now it worth 1.12€ (down 14%). Inflation was 0.3% and is now 3% (10x higher). I suppose we should be grateful it is not a lot worse. Perhaps it would be without cautious BoE policy. Still David Davis has promised we will have trade deals with most of the rest of the world by July 2018 so everything will be fine by next summer.
Meanwhile, in the real world, the TL is back to 5.08 to the pound, down to 4.5 to the euro and the next meaningless milestone may be the 4TL dollar.
So what will happen tomorrow? The money markets seem to be expecting the BoE to increase ointerst rates from 0.25% to 0.5%. If so that that can be expected to consolidate the stronger £. But suppose it doesn't. The Monetary Committee has been very cautious up to now and the last vote was 7/2 in favour of leaving the rate the same. Quite a few people will have to change their minds this time. If they don't and the rate stays the same we might expect the £ to fall below 5 again.
The ball is rolling ... place your bets now please, Ladies and Gentleman.
In a topic about the value of the lira, a post about the value of the lira is a “leftist diversion”?Don't try confuse the lad, Scunner, he's already terminally muddled.
Does that mean you will be paid to drink Efes? :)
Yeah, I'm betting Carney has hyped up a rate rise so much he'll be putting pressure on the committee to confirm it. There, that should put the rate up to 5.TEN !It took a while but it finally got there.
Does that mean you will be paid to drink Efes? :)
In a topic about the value of the lira, a post about the value of the lira is a “leftist diversion”?Don't try confuse the lad, Scunner, he's already terminally muddled.
5.14 this morning. ;)
Meanwhile ... the TL is back to 5.08 to the pound, down to 4.5 to the euro and the next meaningless milestone may be the 4TL dollar.A couple of weeks on, and the £ is up around 5.26₺, the € above 4.6₺ and the countdown is on for $ = 4₺ ... yesterday 3.921, now 3.965 ... that's a jump of another 1% today.
All the people that took RTE's advice in January to sell foreign currency and buy lira will be happy.
€1000 in January would have bought around 4100 TL at best.
4100 TL is today worth around €886
4 to the $ looming close :OThis is the third time in two weeks that the dollar has shot to 3.95 and then stuck. Is TCB doing everything it can behind the scenes to support the lira to delay the psychological barrier of 4 being broken (we know it has plenty of foreign currency and gold to do this)? Will TCB break this time?
4 to the $ looming close :OThis is the third time in two weeks that the dollar has shot to 3.95 and then stuck. Is TCB doing everything it can behind the scenes to support the lira to delay the psychological barrier of 4 being broken (we know it has plenty of foreign currency and gold to do this)? Will TCB break this time?
It's 'free to read' here ;) :-
The continued run of the gold price is a global investment sensation. Recently it broke the $1,500 an ounce barrier for the first time, 30 per cent higher than a year ago. Surely this lays bare the extraordinary foolishness of Gordon Brown’s announcement, 12 years ago this week, that the UK Treasury would sell off some of Britain’s gold holdings?
Actually, no. On this one occasion, Mr Brown’s decision was the right one. Let speculators go gambling on a shiny metal, if they want to. For most governments in rich countries, holding gold remains a largely pointless activity.
With hindsight, of course, Mr Brown could have gained a better price by waiting. At current rates, the $3.5bn the UK received selling bullion between 1999 and 2002 would have been closer to $19bn. The difference at current exchange rates, by the way, would be enough to cover a little over three weeks of the UK’s expected public deficit for the fiscal year 2010-2011 – not negligible, but hardly pivotal.
Mr Brown, his critics say, must be kicking himself. Similarly, the French no doubt still suffer sleepless nights for prematurely taking profit on their Louisiana claim by offloading it to Thomas Jefferson in 1803. And had I put my life savings on Ballabriggs at 20-1 before last month’s Grand National, I’d be writing this on a solid platinum laptop while being sprayed with pink champagne in my new beachfront villa in Barbados.
That is the way of things with speculative assets. The truth is that no one has a good explanation why the gold price is currently where it is. The familiar story – a hedge against inflation or government insolvency – is flatly contradicted by the low yields and inflation expectations in US Treasury bonds. The volatility of gold (and other precious metals – witness the huge drop in silver prices this week) merely underlines the risk of holding it. The $1,500 landmark is a nominal price: had governments listened to the bullion fanatics and loaded up on gold in the last big bull market in the early 1980s, they would still be waiting to earn their money back in real terms.
More substantively, criticism of Mr Brown’s sale also betrays a misunderstanding of why a country such as the UK has gold at all.
In common with most rich nations, the function of British foreign exchange reserves is not for the government to manage wealth on behalf of the country. British citizens do that themselves. The UK does not have a sovereign wealth fund that aims to maximise returns, and nor should it. It is not a big net oil and gas exporter such as Norway – UK net foreign exchange reserves are about $40bn, equivalent to 2 per cent of nominal gross domestic product, while Norway’s sovereign fund has $525bn, equivalent to almost 140 per cent of its GDP.
Nor does the UK pile up foreign assets by persistently selling its own currency to manipulate the exchange rate, as does China. It is notable that the much-vaunted official purchases of gold over the past year are mainly by countries such as China and Russia – and, to a lesser extent, Mexico – with big excess reserves.
UK reserves are there mainly for precautionary reasons – to intervene in currency markets to stop a run on sterling or to pursue monetary policy objectives. Yet gold is badly suited for this task because, despite recent interest from private investors, a large proportion of global above-ground stocks – 18 per cent in 2010 – is still held by governments.
Any attempt to sell off large amounts quickly risks driving down the world price, which is what happened after Mr Brown’s announcement in 1999, leading to an international agreement between central banks to restrict further sales.
A precautionary reserve asset held for intervention purposes whose price is likely to fall the instant it is used to intervene is singularly pointless. Of course, central banks selling into a rising market like today’s may not have the same impact as in 1999, but who knows what demand for gold will be like if and when the intervention is needed?
There remains only one other main reason for governments to hold gold – to set monetary policy by linking the national currency to the gold price. This remains as bad an idea as ever. It would have meant sharply tightening monetary policy since the fall of 2008. This would have been madness.
Private investors, and sovereign wealth funds out to make returns, can punt their money on what they like. If they choose to plonk it down on the blackjack table of the commodity markets, that is their decision. But there is no good reason that governments that hold reserves for purely precautionary purposes should feel the need to follow them.
Brown was an economic fool and cost our country a fortune.
I reckon this coming Monday could be an important days trading for the lira.The £ has had a good day on rumours that we might be able to reclaim something from the Brexit mess. It is up against € and $. But ₺ is having an even better day: up against the £, further up against the $ and even further up against the €. And the reason for this is ... . . .? Suggestions invited. Finally a post that actually fits the title of the thread!
JF
[P.S. As a wild guess I think the £ money markets may be underestimating "The Irish Problem" - specifically the DUP.].Well I got something right for once - and I wish I hadn't. The 10 DUP MPs now dictate to the UK Government what it is allowed to do about of Brexit and the £ has tumbled back down again.
1.14 eh? I imagine you are dancing in the street and swilling back the fino.
A week ago the dollar was over 3.95 to the lira and people were speculating on it hitting 4 by the end of the week. Now it is below 3.85 and may be going lower. Funny old thing this currency stuff, ain't it?
It won't help selling property though unless you find non Turkish buyers :(Well you could buy some property instead?
It won't help selling property though unless you find non Turkish buyers :(Well you could buy some property instead?
Thank you Colwyn I have been on XE having a look at tl to gbp...ooh no Iv never heard of a buyback rate agreementHere is the Moneycorp Guarantee
Thank you Colwyn I have been on XE having a look at tl to gbp...ooh no Iv never heard of a buyback rate agreement
Now at 5.40 on XE.
6 to the £ when?
5. 55 And rising.
6 to the £ when?The Financial Times is reporting fears of a "depreciation spiral" for Turkey since it has lost 3.4% against USD this month - and the dollar hasn't been having a particularly good time. One economist is quoted as saying the lira is 15% overvalued. So today's 5.55 might be heading well over 6 in the not too distant future.
Now isn't this pretty?
(https://s9.postimg.org/aptkdud97/Lira_March18.png) (https://postimg.org/image/aptkdud97/)
Compare with the first post on this thread in October 2014.
He's always been against high interest rates but his perspective is more personal than him having a great grasp of international or domestic finance issues, at least thats my opinion.I suspect his perspective is also influenced by the Islamic injunction against usury, around which he attempts to wrap a, not very plausible, economic cloak.
Next up: the pound hits 6?
Next up: the pound hits 6?
Next up: the pound hits 6?
Well the £ just hit 5.75
Better shut up now, said enough to get five years in Silivri prison :)What's Spain's recent record like on extraditing people to Turkey on terrorism charges?
Better shut up now, said enough to get five years in Silivri prison :)What's Spain's recent record like on extraditing people to Turkey on terrorism charges?
£5.70 for what
Erdogan's brilliant, but secret, masterplan to save the lira has not started very well. The £ is back above 5.8
When Erdogan met with investors in London they came away saying they were "baffled" and "flabbergasted" with RTE's policies and couldn't understand how he expected them to work.
Any suggestions as what these may be? Will any big business CEOs be bold enough to suggest to RTE that he compromises over the short term.
One wonders if emergency financial measures may be on the cards any time soon... :(
JF
What part exactly does the up and coming election play in the tl being on the up? :)In the election run up Erdogan has made it inescapably clear what he intends to do when he gets his hands on supreme power. He intends to lower interest rates. International investors do not share his view that this will lower inflation. Instead they see inflation sky-rocketing and the currency being reduced to near rubbish. Obviously they don't want to hold lira so they are selling it off and nobody wants to buy it except the Turkish Central Bank. Thus the value of the lira drops even more.
Experience shows these are all short term fixes.
The lira has finished the week well; up 0.7% against $ and over 1% against € and £. Looks like Simsek's assurances that the Government will back any further actions the CB deems necessary have quietened things down.Also started the week well. 4.56 to the Dollar and 6.08 to the Pound. Simsek's calming influence.
Looks a little bit like he is leaving Şimşek and Çetinkaya (TCB governor) to get on with the job.
JF
Ecolution
Food in Mosail Bacphce and Livadi were incredibly reasonable......
Maybe the son in law IS a financial genius...
Well, just goes to show that the financial markets are funny old beasts. So far the lira is trading round about the same as on Friday.What with Thomas Cook.LOL.
Maybe the son in law IS a financial genius...
...and maybe I'll be flying to the moon on Thursday :)
JF
Maybe the son in law IS a financial genius...And not afraid to defy daddy-in-law.
https://www.dailysabah.com/economy/2018/07/24/turkish-markets-lira-soar-ahead-of-central-bank-meeting
Or just take over thriving private businesses to bolster their finances
Someone was telling me at Christmas in the Nil bar me how much he gets in interest keeping his money in a Turkish bank account and how little he earns when he had his cash in a UK bank account. He didn't seem to grasp that it loses more than that in value with depreciation against the £.
To be fair, if someone is resident in Turkey and doesn't have the need to change lira into sterling or euros, then the depreciation against other currencies isn't so much of a problem. It only becomes a problem if they decide to leave Turkey and cash in their lira, that's when their losses will become apparent.
What is an issue is that interest rates are high for a reason - and the main one is that inflation is high in Turkey. So once you take the tax off the interest received and gauge that net figure against the current inflation rate, then they're not making as much as they think. There are investment products available in the UK that give far higher returns than the high street banks, with much less risk than lumping it into a Turkish bank.
JF
I have just read a post on another site that says the banks have closed to foreign exchange, can anyone confirm or explain what this will mean. Thanks
I have just read a post on another site that says the banks have closed to foreign exchange, can anyone confirm or explain what this will mean. ThanksSome have, some haven't.
Can’t imagine why they would. Surely they want any currency other than the Lira right now?
8 by Friday ;)
Reg was obviously very pleased with his son-in-law's handling of the economy today.
(https://s22.postimg.cc/71f3rfvjx/image.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/71f3rfvjx/)
If I owned a business in Turkey ( big or small ) I would be quite happy for my customers to pay me with sterling at the moment.
Are there any signs that shops, restaurants , excursions sellers etc. are actively encouraging people to pay with other currencies ??
I was buying jewellery in Ed’s with sterling in July. :)
Isn’t that the opposite of the official plea for people to give up their foreign currency and exchange it for lira?
I can’t say I’m not confused once again...
Oh and someone else posted and said the tl rate has a reprieve because of Bayram, would Bayram have an effect on it in any way at all just curious ;D
...the Calis Beach Forum where there are people waiting to jump on you and have a go if you ask a question lol!
There is a right ole slanging match going on on fb re “the as the crisis is now over” ( of course it is) will the price of beer, wine boat trips etc come back down ( of course they will) and it kind of got out of hand as someone made a remark about the ladies posting saying they were all “Turkeyboy fans” so someone said he was leaving the group as its now become like the Calis Beach Forum where there are people waiting to jump on you and have a go if you ask a question lol! Oh and someone else posted and said the tl rate has a reprieve because of Bayram, would Bayram have an effect on it in any way at all just curious ;D
There is a right ole slanging match going on on fb re “the as the crisis is now over”
I live here you know seems to be a particular calling cry of the english at home and abroad. I heard it about a month ago in Cornwall from some pillock who was going the wrong way round a roundabout.
Bunch of morons. The usual expats who think it's their God given right to get things on the cheap 'cos we live here'Yes and the people that come out now and again and think its their God Given rights to cheap flights,
Bunch of morons. The usual expats who think it's their God given right to get things on the cheap 'cos we live here'Yes and the people that come out now and again and think its their God Given rights to cheap flights,
because they own a place here?
Bunch of morons. The usual expats who think it's their God given right to get things on the cheap 'cos we live here'Yes and the people that come out now and again and think its their God Given rights to cheap flights,
because they own a place here?
Bunch of morons. The usual expats who think it's their God given right to get things on the cheap 'cos we live here'Yes and the people that come out now and again and think its their God Given rights to cheap flights,
because they own a place here?
Will just keep my mouth shut on this uncalled for comment
Yes Skunner just testing the Cliqueyness.and it worked.
Never mind China going to lend Turkey a few bob.
China also according to the news.Never mind China going to lend Turkey a few bob.
I thought it was that great footballing nation, Qatar, that had volunteered to save the economy ...........
China also according to the news.Never mind China going to lend Turkey a few bob.I thought it was that great footballing nation, Qatar, that had volunteered to save the economy ...........
Looks like the lira might be in for a bit of a battering when the markets open on Monday. S&P and Moody's both downgraded Turkeys rating further yesterday, although S&P did suggest that an upgrade is possible if they see the new economic policies working and inflation to be curbed. The inflation figure for August is looking to be a pretty important figure, lets hope it's not an increase from July.
JF
must have Scottish ancestors.😁😁China also according to the news.Never mind China going to lend Turkey a few bob.I thought it was that great footballing nation, Qatar, that had volunteered to save the economy ...........
They'll take money from anyone, just a shame Russia is a bit skint right now... ;)
JF
The UK's run out of Lira!
Should I use hard cash/notes to buy Lira in Calis or would my Lloyds debit card work just as well without prohibitive penalty?
If cash is best I'll draw it out tomorrow before Thursday's much looked forward to arrival.
Thank you.
Another big hit for the lira today, Moody's downgraded the credit rating of twenty banks and finance companies yesterday.
But fear not, the boy says everything is rosy.
JF
The Turkish lira will receive a strong boost against the pound soon enough. We are heading out to Calis soon and the markets always react to that news by reducing the exchange rate.You make it up out of the increase in the share price of Efes though. Doing my best to help it along at the moment.
Big day for the lira tomorrow, TCB meeting to decide on interest rates.
Guesses anyone...
JF
Big day for the lira tomorrow, TCB meeting to decide on interest rates.Market analyst's are predicting a rate hike of up to 4 percent by the TCB today.
Guesses anyone...
JF
The wee fella will not be a happy all powerful supreme leader...
JF
I see that He is now the chairman of Turkey's wealth fund and strategic assets with his son in law as deputy.
Well at least he has a nice new shiny Boeing 747 to play with.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/photo-qatar-emir-gifts-turkeys-erdogan-boeing-747-8-aircraft-136794
Don’t think about paying till it gets down to 30pROFLMAO. ;D
Don’t think about paying till it gets down to 30p
Great to see the Turkish lira starting to get stronger, against the pound, members very quiet on
this subject lately.
Anyone have any inklings as to why its slipped back please, as in any elections etc coming up? Iv been waiting to change money not sure whether 2 nip into town or wait and see what occurs...Devlet Bahceli who is the president of MHP, said that his party will not be in an alliance with AKP for the council elections next year.