Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum

Information and Services in Turkey Section => Banks, Interest, Money Transfers, Insurance => Topic started by: Ian on October 28, 2014, 22:42:29 PM

Title: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Ian on October 28, 2014, 22:42:29 PM
(http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/14/10/28/15f27f311cd21d033da923f29566f987.jpg)

Not sure why but in spite of all his critics (RTE) he seems to be either lucky or slowly gaining strength?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on October 28, 2014, 23:05:10 PM
I wondered ;D the same myself, especially as the pound was appreciating against the dollar and euro. So rather than it being something good with the TL,  I suspect that the current depreciation of the euro and particularly the dollar, may have a disproportionate benefit to economies like Turkey and so the TL appreciates against most currencies, not just the dollar and euro.

Mind you I could be wrong in this suggestion, and Reg has been right all along...... Nah only kidding ;D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: thebillet on October 29, 2014, 06:19:05 AM
As I understand it the significant decrees in the price of oil has eased the pressure on TRY, it has a greater significance for Turkey than other economies and  a higher price was factored in previously. It is now unwinding the pressure on TRY. Commentators say as the price of oil is expected to go down even further then it will strengthen again. It is perhaps one small break for the ordinary Turk coming just as the season ends. I fear that although this is some respite for the TRY having a war literally on your border will have a number of tourists think twice about coming next year: we have had one visitor pull out this year because of the perception of Turkey based on news reports in UK. If a trend starts this would IMHO have a negative impact on TRY.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: tinkerman on October 29, 2014, 07:45:20 AM
Or it could be Europe is in a steady decline, the Russians are taking over the oil markets and Turkey has leapt into bed with Russia.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Ian on October 29, 2014, 08:21:14 AM
3.5477 this morning - strange - as all the commentators who dislike / disapprove of RTE say the lira is in a bubble and should be / will be 4+ in the not too distant future but it is going the other way ???
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 29, 2014, 09:41:42 AM
Since the presidential election the TL/£ has varied in a band between 3.7 and 3.5 with regular peaks and troughs. Over the last few weeks it has strengthened from its 7 month record 3.7 to the present 3.55 but this would have to be maintained for a longer period or go under 3.5 before I think we can make any confident statements about a trend in the currency.

(http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a138/ColwynJones/Lira_zpsff6c4d75.png)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on October 29, 2014, 10:22:33 AM
Perhaps the reason for the steady lira over the last couple of months has been the Central Bank's (surprising) holding of Turkish interest rates, against the political pressure from Reg and Prime Minister Mini Me to slash interest rates in advance of next year's election.  If the central bank had collapsed against the political pressure it would have lead, said many commentators and ratings companies, to a minimum 4TL to the £.  Mind you there is still time for Reg and co. to step up the pressure still... :-\
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 29, 2014, 14:31:56 PM
Not only has the Turkish Central Bank kept interest rates high (8.25% on one week repo) it has also been supporting the Lira through daily currency auctions. In October it quadrupled its spending to $40million per day buying back TL. So, it turns out we don't need grand global politico-socio-economic theories to explain the strengthening pound - collapse of EU economies, Russian counter sanctions, bailing out Ukraine, Cameron not wanting to pay his bills - the Lira has been getting stronger because CB has been throwing mountains of money behind it. No wonder Pres and PM are worried about what this is doing to the economy and, hence, AKP chances in next year's elections - economic growth slowed from 4.7% in first quarter to 2.1% in second quarter following the interest rate hike in March.

Announcement of new policy to be found here:
http://online.wsj.com/articles/turkey-to-defend-lira-with-increased-foreign-exchange-auctions-1411741258 (http://online.wsj.com/articles/turkey-to-defend-lira-with-increased-foreign-exchange-auctions-1411741258)
Impact on economy to be found here:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c05636f0-38cb-11e4-a53b-00144feabdc0.html (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c05636f0-38cb-11e4-a53b-00144feabdc0.html)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Ian on October 29, 2014, 17:39:10 PM
In the words of that great economist Mama Cass

And it's getting better
Growing stronger
Warm and wilder
Getting better everyday, better everyday

3.5398 now - good news for some
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 29, 2014, 17:55:58 PM


Eh?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Ian on October 29, 2014, 17:57:35 PM
I think she knew more than those who are considered to be experts :-)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 29, 2014, 18:05:58 PM
That part of the post I was able to figure out for myself Ian. It was the "emoji1" bit that lost me. It is a technical term I had not encountered before. Emergency Monetary Override Judicious Intervention: Level One perhaps?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Ian on October 29, 2014, 18:23:09 PM
Ahhh I see - I am typing the original "colon / dash / bracket" smiley face" at this end and that is what I see but it sounds like you / others get a descriptor? I guess as this was the first emoji - it is probably referred to as emoji1 and if that is the case I would blame John F !!!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 29, 2014, 18:27:31 PM
I would blame John F !!!
Since he is Gruppenfuhrer of CBF I won't be surprised if you are missing from the forum for a few days.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Evie on October 30, 2014, 05:58:25 AM
Lots stronger against dollar pound and euro. Bad news on euro economy and stress test results on banks making investors look to other markets. Foreign investment in Turkey up 10% plus world bank suggesting Turkey and USA have their own trade talks. Goreign exchange always risky but let's hope the trend continues.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Evie on October 30, 2014, 05:59:27 AM
Foreign
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 30, 2014, 11:42:43 AM
The Lira has had a good October; I wonder how it will do in November. After this week the US Federal Reserve will stop its Quantitative Easing programme that has been running for over 5 years. This has pumped huge amounts of money into the world economy - $4.5 trillion, an incomprehensibly gigantic sum. A great deal of this cheap money was invested in emerging markets which offered a better return than the advanced economies. Turkey did very well out of it. Will foreign investors still be as interested when cheap money is no longer available? It may not take us too long to find out.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on October 30, 2014, 14:08:56 PM
Apparently the £ is crashing now.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2813188/Federal-Reserve-ends-QE-economy-bounces-Great-Recession.html
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 30, 2014, 14:42:17 PM
My first reaction was "Ah, the good old Daily Mail - News invented by drunken hacks down at the boozer".  Because, obviously, the
£ is not crashing. Yesterday it dropped against the $ by 0.6%. Wow!

But actually even the Mail didn't dream up the crazy notion that the £ was crashing; it merely said the $ had "pushed below" 1.6 to the £ (by the way it is back over 1.6 again today). Who made this up? It wasn't you, was it KKOB? Have you a job application in with DM?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on October 30, 2014, 15:21:15 PM
No mate, I'm far too busy keeping the peace around the North West.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 30, 2014, 15:28:31 PM
You are the Wyatt Earp of northwest Wrexham?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: scorcher on October 30, 2014, 15:35:48 PM
As long as all this is not affecting the celeriac prices, you should be fine! Nobody bothered too much in Minera when I was a boy!  ;D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on October 30, 2014, 16:06:02 PM
You are the Wyatt Earp of northwest Wrexham?

Nah, I leave that to the LLPD.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Ian on October 31, 2014, 07:43:21 AM
3.51 this morning !
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Sleuth on October 31, 2014, 15:57:26 PM
3 .54   and rising again :-(
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 31, 2014, 16:05:56 PM
Yep, the "correction" has now set in and the Lira is over 3.55 and back in its "normal" range for last six months after losing 1% of value today. Perhaps it will be up again on Monday; perhaps further down; I'm not placing bets.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 05, 2014, 17:48:06 PM
Yesterday Turkey CB ploughed $3.15bn into the currency markets. Today the lira is down 1% against the $. Hmm.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Ian on November 14, 2014, 15:28:42 PM
(http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/14/11/14/428512cc3be96cfb1919da31008f0fbb.jpg)

Explanations please - big palace - hence more confidence - maybe
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 14, 2014, 15:51:28 PM
Back in the early part of this year I tried to explain what little I know about the "drunken walk" theory of exchange rates. The mathematics behind it I understand not at all. But, in gross simplification, it says that currency fluctuations under "normal" conditions are like a drunkard's walk along a road. He starts in the middles and then lurches this way, then lurches the other. For a long time you can't tell what general direction he is following. Just when you think he must be going left he makes three lurches to the right. However, over quite a while, he reaches one pavement or the other, and you find there was a direction there after all.

Can we see a direction for the Lira so far? For several months 3.5:£ has been the barrier then it lurches in the other direction. Now it has broken through the barrier. Is this meaningful? Let's see if it lasts a couple of weeks and we will be able to tell. If it is meaningful then it will be time to work out what the meaning is. Whatever, greater confidence that the Islamic State is being weakened, maybe even defeated, can't hurt Turkey.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on November 14, 2014, 15:57:14 PM
Or, to précis the above, Colwyn doesn't know.   ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 14, 2014, 16:04:40 PM
Quite right, KKOB. I already feel uncertain about the last sentence I wrote about defeat for IS being good for Turkey. If that actually does happen - not an immediate prospect, and anyway they will just disband, disperse and emerge in other places as other horrible movements - what happens to the weapons that the Kurds now hold? If they get shipped to the PKK then maybe that won't be good news at all.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Ian on November 14, 2014, 16:08:38 PM
I suspect every time RTE has a quiet week (not touring or making speeches) the markets think - oh its not that bad - and we see encouraging swings - but rest assured next week he will likely be touring again :-)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 30, 2015, 17:48:43 PM
A few days ago I was thinking that the Lira has been pretty quiet recently; just bouncing around between fairly clear top and bottom borders. But today the dollar has hit a record high against the lira. OK, the dollar is strong but it seems particularly strong against TL. Perhaps it will bounce back again on Monday.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on January 30, 2015, 19:00:29 PM
Closed at  3. 68 tonight.  I think it's the President  v  the External Markets.

His talk of taking over the Central Bank will be sure to have a calming effect,     ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on January 30, 2015, 19:11:50 PM
Yeah, it'll give him and his friends and family somewhere else to hide the shoeboxes.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on January 30, 2015, 19:19:19 PM
Don't tell me his White Elephants rooms are full up already.     :o :o
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 30, 2015, 19:52:11 PM
I still read on some Turkey forums that people who have sold their villas for TL saying they are waiting to change into £s until the rate comes back to 2.5/2.6ish. I have no idea what to say to these people - so I don't say anything.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on January 30, 2015, 20:24:06 PM
That's a wise saying.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 31, 2015, 11:48:16 AM
One commentator says "The lira is on the verge of a cliff and markets should expect an historic depreciation this year". Another predicts by the end of 2015 TL could be at 3:1 against the dollar; that's 4.5:£. Dollar reserves are at a 12 month low making currency auctions more difficult. Is there any option other than an interest rate rise? The government is insisting that the rate be cut! It is going to be a bumpy ride up to the election.

http://www.todayszaman.com/business_political-noise-over-rates-revives-worst-case-scenario-for-lira_371234.html
 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on January 31, 2015, 13:49:47 PM
Is there any option other than an interest rate rise?
 
Yes an interest rate cut,if the inflation rate is lower when the figures are announced on Feb 3rd.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 31, 2015, 14:02:22 PM
Given the price of oil and gas then inflation should come down. If RTE insists on celebrating this with a drop in interest rates that could trigger a trashing of the Lira.

Earlier this week Erdogan explained "If interest rates don't fall, inflation doesn't fall either". I suppose this is RTEconomics.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on January 31, 2015, 14:37:47 PM
For goodness sake don't question  RTEs Economic credentials.   He's a former Simit seller i'll have you know.

         ( at least if the Elections go pear shaped he's got a career to fall back on )
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 02, 2015, 12:10:09 PM
The lira is having a good day against the dollar; strengthening by nearly 1%. This follows Basci saying at the end of Friday's press conference that market fears were not appropriate due to the cautious approach of CB to the exchange rate. This seems to indicate that there will not be the "substantial" cut in interest rates that RTE wants; just a small adjustment with which the markets can live. Will the Pres go ballistic? Is Basci's job safe? Wednesday might be interesting.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on February 02, 2015, 12:15:57 PM
I suppose this is RTEconomics.

However, he has a far better grasp of Shoeboxonomics...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 03, 2015, 11:32:12 AM
CB Governor Basci had said he would hold an emergency meeting tomorrow to consider rate cuts if the inflation rate fell by more than 1% in January. But it didn't fall that much so tomorrow's meeting is off, Basci is standing up to RTE, the markets are happy, and the TL ought to be in for a good period until the scheduled meeting on the 24th Feb ... unless RTE throws another hissy fit.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 04, 2015, 14:29:36 PM
Yep, they couldn't resist meddling with the Central Bank. Yesterday in Parliament one of RTE's best mates, Nihat Zeybekci (Economy Minister), said that Turkey didn't have to worry about exchange rates. Today he weighed in more strongly by saying a weaker currency might be good for Turkish economy. Then Erdogan went on TV to reinforce the message that rates are too high. Before he began speaking $:TL was 2.421: after he finished it was 2.434 -  about 1% down. Today the £ is quite strong against other currencies so it is even better for those holding £s - about 2% up and over 3.7 to TL. Looks like my June holiday is going to be cheaper than expected.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on February 04, 2015, 17:05:52 PM
And in another example of political interference the  TMSF has taken over Bank Asya, by order of ??  guess who.?

World financial institutions wont want to touch Turkey with a barge pole at this rate.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 04, 2015, 19:09:34 PM
Actually I have some empathy with the feelings of the government. It is usual these days to praise "independent" Central Banks. People who had nothing else good to say about the New Labour Government, even Tories, praised Gordon Brown for giving the Bank of England "independent status". Not me. OK, it seems having an independent CB seems better than allowing politicians to go on a mad money spurge just before a General Election to boost the ruling party's popularity - just as RTE wants now. But the BoE, and in RTE's eyes the Turkish CB, are not "independent". They are the stooges of the financial markets. The BoE follows policies demanded by the Square Mile of the City of London. Former Governor of the BoE let the cat out of bag when he said that unemployment in the North East of England was a price worth paying for controlling (house price driven) in the South East. The BoE does not take what is good for the British economy as a major factor in its calculations. I'm sure Erdogan sees Basci in the same way.

But I also have some sympathy for Basci. Governors of CBs around the world were fascinated by his innovative policy of controlling exchange markets by talking openly to them. On Friday he calmed markets, not by increasing interest rates, not by "burning" millions of dollars, but by telling the markets that the CB would act cautiously. It worked. The lira firmed, the future looked stable until the next meeting. Then Erdogan and his sidekick weigh-in with strong noises and, within hours, the lira hits an all-time low against the dollar. Apparently Basci considered resigning in the Autumn. He might be considering it again. How long can he expected to keep banging his head against the AKP wall?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on February 04, 2015, 19:47:44 PM
It's all very well blathering on about CBs, RTE's, BoEs, and the AKP. Nobody seems to be addressing the real issue here. What effect is all this shenanigans going to have on the EPI (Efes Price Index) ?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on February 04, 2015, 20:18:24 PM
When you're trying to get legless on double Ayrans the  EPI wont mean Jack S##t.    ;D

There will be Booze Cruises to Rhodes to consume alcohol.  Breath tests at Turkish Customs.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Sleuth on February 04, 2015, 21:59:50 PM
Not really funny your comment KKOB
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: peter16 on February 04, 2015, 23:08:50 PM
Sleuth.... come on, yes it was  ;D  keep on KKOB  ;D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on February 04, 2015, 23:49:36 PM
Not really funny your comment KKOB

Not really necessary your comment David.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Sleuth on February 05, 2015, 07:12:10 AM
KKOB       I just felt your comments  were being disrespectful to Colwyn`s interesting and serious  post.

If you thought your comments were `funny`  in my opinion it wasn`t ...  thats all
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Dennis Vint on February 05, 2015, 08:49:57 AM
KKOB       I just felt your comments  were being disrespectful to Colwyn`s interesting and serious  post.

If you thought your comments were `funny`  in my opinion it wasn`t ...  thats all


Humour is in the ear of the beholder!  I'm sure that there is room for both serious and light-hearted comments.    :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on February 05, 2015, 09:01:56 AM
Yes got 3,64tl to the pound yesterrday
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on February 05, 2015, 10:52:19 AM
KKOB       I just felt your comments  were being disrespectful to Colwyn`s interesting and serious  post.

I'm sure Colwyn appreciates you being offended on his behalf.  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 05, 2015, 11:11:40 AM
If you started being respectful I would worry that someone had told you I had a terminal illness and had mere moments to live.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Sleuth on February 05, 2015, 11:51:34 AM
No , sorry but you are both wrong  :-)    `texted` words  can often be mis interpreted... always a problem....  the `spoken` words are received differently...  (  body language and emphasis  etc on certain words  )   easy to distinguish  between the two if its supposed to be `funny` or serious.
I  read  your post ( I dont know you )  as being  disrespectful to Colwyn`s post... ( texted words ) it seems now I  took it in the wrong sense.
It was supposed to be `funny`.................if it was , that ain`t my sense of humour  anyway...  sorry   :-)
I have a sense of humour... believe me...  and on this forum there is mainly only one person`s wit and humour that makes me laugh and that`s Scunner`s wit and humour.

Anyway by the sound of it Colwyn  will not be offended by your comments  so thats fine....    my apologies for reading it wrong, and lets all move on   :-)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on February 05, 2015, 12:44:40 PM
(http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h56/twodogs_photos/thumbs.jpg)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: echogirl1 on February 05, 2015, 15:24:53 PM
Anyway to get back to the lira!!  After the last few days of checking out the lira rate in the Cambridge area, the best rate was M&S  (2.48) and others just a little below, so believe me how shocked I was to see in Tesco today the rate offered was 2.25.  When I queried if this was a mistake I was assured that was the correct rate.  What a rip-off.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on February 05, 2015, 16:13:27 PM
Echo girl surely you mean, 325TL to the pound? :'( :'( :'(
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Bluwise on February 05, 2015, 17:11:30 PM
3.57 exchange on some sites here in UK

http://www.money.co.uk/travel-money/turkish-lira-exchange-rate.htm
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on February 05, 2015, 17:44:17 PM
Echo girl surely you mean, 325TL to the pound? :'( :'( :'(

Now who's being silly ? Surely you mean 3.25 TL to the pound ?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 05, 2015, 17:54:59 PM
For the time being.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: echogirl1 on February 05, 2015, 20:31:25 PM
3.25 to the pound, its being blonde that's my problem, glad KKOB made a bloomer as well!!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on February 05, 2015, 20:36:03 PM
Well done KKOB shows your A LERT
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on February 05, 2015, 20:57:32 PM
Yep, the world needs lerts.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on February 06, 2015, 08:32:37 AM
3.50+ today on many sites. http://www.compareholidaymoney.com/buy-currency/turkish-lira.php?gclid=CPLV3qnzzMMCFfHKtAodGEMAUw
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on February 06, 2015, 08:41:30 AM
Just over 3.73 with Finansbank...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 06, 2015, 10:27:34 AM
3.68 with with zero fee, zero loading on bank Visa debit card. I notice that the charge Visa makes for its service (i.e. what it charges banks) is higher for Turkish Lira (1%) than it is for US Dollar (0.5%). I guess this is down to the volatility of the Lira.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on February 06, 2015, 14:49:19 PM
Tl  3.77 a moment ago at Finansbank,
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 06, 2015, 15:12:13 PM
Yep, the Economy Minister makes another anti-CB speech, RTE overrules his own PM on the new Administration Transparency Law, and the TL loses 1% of value against the USD in five minutes. AKP seems likely get its currency devaluation by default. It looks like it will finish the day 5.5% down over the last four weeks.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on February 06, 2015, 16:54:16 PM
Now Tl  3.7830. Book an extra week Colwyn.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on February 10, 2015, 06:07:42 AM
As well as briefly hitting 3.80 against the pound yesterday the lira hit another record low against the dollar reaching 2.4950.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 10, 2015, 14:10:56 PM
Another milestone for you Yabanci. USD through 2.5 (and GBP back to 3.8).
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on February 10, 2015, 14:15:08 PM
Wow.Reg been tweeting again?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on February 10, 2015, 15:13:57 PM
3.8132 now- highest since the zeros came off I think. Will we see 4 this year??
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on February 10, 2015, 15:52:05 PM
Yes is my guess, and more. RTE is going nowhere just yet so  neither is the uncertainty.
Reports yesterday that Gul is under surveillance and anyone meeting him regularly, and
also lots of infighting breaking out at the top of the AKP re promotions and pecking order.
Add to that RTE's plans to set up a 13 man committee in his White Elephant to oversee
EVERYTHING else including the government, then factor in the elections and I can see a 5tl.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 10, 2015, 18:08:58 PM
3.8132 now- highest since the zeros came off I think. Will we see 4 this year??
If the Central Bank cuts more than 0.5% in two week's time, or if it only cuts that much and RTE and sidekick Zeybekci throw a major wobbly, you might see 4 before the end of Feb 24th or perhaps the next day.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on February 10, 2015, 18:14:23 PM
Word on the pavey is that Başçı might be on his way out sooner rather than later.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 10, 2015, 18:47:55 PM
OK, Basci, set the interest rate.

(http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a138/ColwynJones/Basci_zpso8rxmvgm.jpg)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on February 11, 2015, 16:20:35 PM
     Tl  3.8234  and rising.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 11, 2015, 18:06:31 PM
£ pinged 3.83 before calming down again.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 18, 2015, 10:28:20 AM
Some rather obscure financial specialist news outlets are reporting that Basci has had charges filed against him by prosecutors for his conduct of the Central Bank and, if found guilty, he could face up to two years in gaol. I cannot find anything in more substantial news sources. I'll look out for any confirmed news.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kayakebab on February 18, 2015, 17:15:20 PM
Lots  about this on Twitter at including this link http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-17/turkey-central-bank-head-faces-2-years-jail-not-lowering-interest-rates
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 23, 2015, 17:04:28 PM
£ just pinged 3.83 again head of tomorrow's crunch meeting of the Central Bank. Watch this space!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on February 24, 2015, 13:48:51 PM
Only a 0.25% reduction by the Central Bank this afternoon.Reg will not be happy.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 24, 2015, 17:09:12 PM
At 0.25% the money markets seem content that Basci is still in charge of policy - at least for time being. $/TL rate about level for the day. Of course this can all change if RTE makes one of his "interesting" interventions.

I must say I have some admiration for the way Basci, who comes across as such a quiet little man, has stood up month after month to Erdogan bullying in such a prominent way in a country where, increasingly, it is such a short step from upsetting the President to ending up in gaol.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on February 24, 2015, 20:34:03 PM
I sense a damaging split at the top of Government, possibly delayed by the elections, that could play havoc with the TL and economy.
       
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on February 25, 2015, 15:03:19 PM


          TL 3.84 87    and rising.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 25, 2015, 15:21:44 PM
Yep, Erdogan couldn't resist having another dig at the CB and thus sent the lira back on its downward path. The £, which is having a good day all round, is through 3.855 and, less dramatically, the dollar is past 2.49 again.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: mercury on February 25, 2015, 15:24:09 PM
Thank goodness we don't have to worry about it anymore... I feel for those who are still waiting to change their lira into sterling... We took a big hit a few months ago but nothing like at this rate. Phew... Hopefully we will benefit as tourists in the future. Either way this is not good for the Turkish economy... I have a few Turkish friends who are really struggling with the price increases.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on February 25, 2015, 16:18:36 PM
The saddest thing for my mind is that huge numbers of the Turks will vote in the coming general election for Reg and the AKP, even after this and earlier drops in the value of the lira.  Still watch for the usual Reg/Turkish explanation which is to blame some other poor bugger, and in the case of the economy step forward the independent Turkish Central Bank and the fall guy for the AKP one Central Bank Governor ... Erdem Basci.  Reg has already organised for one of his placemen judges to arrange criminal charges against poor Basci.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on February 26, 2015, 06:24:25 AM
Over 3.86 this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on February 26, 2015, 08:33:47 AM
Blimey I have just realised that above, for the first time ever, I have shown sympathy towards a banker  ;)  ;) ;D

Anyway on the - unlikely - assumption that the pound remains steady, how long before we get to a 4TL to the £ ??
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on February 26, 2015, 09:36:07 AM
The more interesting question to ask is maybe when do we see 5tl to the GBP...  and what do they do when it gets that bad.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on February 26, 2015, 10:10:55 AM
I think the answer to that lies in the hands of honest politicians ( and there are some ) that care about Turkey.

The government are about to be devoured by the monster they created. Elections won't decide it because they

will be corrupted by the monster. The cracks are already appearing. Interesting times.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 26, 2015, 11:12:45 AM
Traditional Chinese curse on your enemies: May you live in interesting times. [Not directed at you Kevin].
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on February 27, 2015, 11:40:32 AM
Reg back on his familiar rant of the Central Bank being under external influences (not his) has spooked the market,along with rumours that Basci may be on his way out.Dollar at 2.51 and the pound just under 3.9.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 27, 2015, 12:07:50 PM
According to Reuters, financiers are watching keenly to see what Erdogan has to say at a formal lunch he is hosing for Provincial Governors which is taking place right now.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/27/markets-turkey-idUSL5N0W12M520150227
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: scorcher on February 27, 2015, 12:25:35 PM
Let's hope the soup survives.   ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 27, 2015, 14:13:21 PM
Let's hope the soup survives.    ;)
Of course I meant to say that RTE was hosting the lunch; not hosing it. My apologies to the soup.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on March 03, 2015, 16:56:02 PM
The lira weakened again today hitting record lows against the dollar, now over 2.53, and the pound hitting 3.90, as Turkish inflation figures rose slightly for last month.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 03, 2015, 17:02:23 PM
He's upping the ante:

Seeking to boost flagging growth ahead of a June general election, Erdoğan has warned that defending high interest rates amounts to treason, ratcheting up pressure on the Central Bank and telling Governor Erdem Başçı to “shape up.”

HDN (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-lira-weakens-to-record-low-above-253-against-dollar.aspx?pageID=238&nID=79116&NewsCatID=344)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 03, 2015, 17:39:58 PM
One of the links posted earlier stated that it was too late for any (real) economic impact of lowering interest rates to have any discernible impact before the General Election. On the other hand, according to the CB 80% of Turkish corporate debt is in foreign currency and when firms have to service this debt (i.e. pay interest or pay it off) it becomes more and more expensive in lira to do so. And this happens immediately.

I think we can assume the RTE v Basci struggle now has little to do economics and more to do RTE's testosterone and religious dogma. Will AKP voters be proud of their new sultan is standing his ground against the CB? Surprisingly, to me, a recent opinion poll suggest some doubt over this showing 52% of AKP voters think it is cold economic factors that should drive the CB. From the general population 17% think the CB ought to follow RTE instructions; 68% think the CB should be ruled by "economic realities" (whatever they think that might mean).

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/over-half-of-turkish-population-does-not-approve-of-erdogans-pressure-on-central-bank-poll.aspx?pageID=238&nID=79029&NewsCatID=344
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 04, 2015, 15:59:36 PM
The title of this thread is now looking decidedly post-modern ironic. Erdogan today moved from just blaming Basci to roping in Deputy Prime Minister Babacan as well - someone who has been a central pillar of the AKP Government since the start in 2002. Today, he told the pair of them that they need to "correct themselves". The lira obligingly promptly dropped another 1% against the dollar which now buys 2.56TL. RTE then flew off to Saudi Arabia. One more strong speech from RTE on his return stressing his new economic theories for the New Turkey, and condemning Basci and Babacan for failing to understand their weight and justice, might well deliver £1 = 4TL.

This link is something of a lightweight "pop" article but it quite fun:
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogans-trouble-with-the-good-old-akp.aspx?PageID=238&NID=79139&NewsCatID=411
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on March 05, 2015, 09:59:10 AM

       TL 3.95 this morning,  Finans'.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 05, 2015, 10:08:28 AM
And that's after CB chucked in nearly $4billion this morning trying to support it. Countdown to 4:£ ? Ten .... nine .... eight .........


Click ... 3.96
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on March 05, 2015, 14:39:05 PM
Prime Minister Davutoglu is in New York with a herd of AKP apparatchiks, trying to extol the wonders of Turkey under AKP control. In speeches to various American financial houses (Merril Lynch etc.) he is trying to calm the nerves of both potential and actual investors in the Turkish economy.   Against the backdrop of the Lira plummeting to all time lows - 3.96TL to the £ - but it would appear that no one is listening to him, or his accompanying economics team as the lira continues to fall during, and after his re-assurances.  Then again these investors and speculators alike, are reasonably smart, and they know that this puppet Prime Minister is not in charge ..... step forward Reg!!  He is currently in Saudi Arabia putting the Saudis right on Middle East and Foreign affairs ..... but the dim, the pious, large sections of the Kurds will still vote for him and the AKP .... you couldn't make it up.  Some times I could weep for the Turkish nation.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 05, 2015, 16:02:55 PM
Looks like Citibank just dumped its 10% stake in Akbank...  rats and sinking ships come to mind.

Just checked now, lira currently sitting at 2.61 against the USD.  Major issues for any company with foreign debt coming up - no wonder the government wants to offload its stake in THY!

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 05, 2015, 16:13:56 PM
Click ........... 3.97
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Kevin Sowten on March 05, 2015, 17:14:08 PM
Coinmill 3.98
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on March 05, 2015, 17:26:17 PM
xe.com 3.97992
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on March 05, 2015, 17:38:08 PM
3.9983 xe
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 05, 2015, 17:38:19 PM
Click .......... 3.99.

Now 3.996. Just a Presidential sneeze away from the fabled 4.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on March 05, 2015, 17:39:02 PM
3.9998!!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 05, 2015, 18:10:50 PM
Hitting the 4/£ mark is, of course, a matter of interest for most of us who are familiar with sterling and use it. But for Turkey the important currency is the $ and it has done even worse against that today. Down 2.25% today (so far). A few minutes ago the Wall Street Journal described this as "a rout". You can't say they are exaggerating. There is now a run on the lira. How far does it have to go before Erdogan is satisfied? If the Turkish CB interest rate drops (what RTE wants) and the US CB rate rises (almost certain) then we could be looking at a really steep plummet.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on March 05, 2015, 18:30:09 PM
Couldn't have come much closer


(http://www.calis-beach.co.uk/39998.jpg)

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on March 05, 2015, 18:39:54 PM
Euro at 1.38 too! Happy Holidays  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 06, 2015, 10:16:45 AM
Prime Minister Davutoglu, off talking finance in New York, has said he has been in touch with Turkish Central Bank and that "every kind of measure" will be taken to stop the slide of the lira. People have interpreted this as Basci having permission to intervene again in defence of the lira which has responded significantly stronger today against £ and steady against $. I haven't heard of any commentary by RTE about this statement. Will it last? Does it mean Basci can raise interest rates or just postpone reducing them? When is the next Erdogan rant coming?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/03/06/markets-turkey-idUKL5N0W813L20150306 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/03/06/markets-turkey-idUKL5N0W813L20150306)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on March 06, 2015, 10:51:45 AM
Direct correlation between an improving TL and Reg keeping his mouth shut!!! Can't last though.....
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 06, 2015, 12:11:41 PM
I suspect we won't see much more movement today, Monday will be the test.  Fridays afternoons tend to be fairly quiet on the currency front...  too many large lunches to be enjoyed from the profits of the preceding week.  Could be wrong though!

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on March 06, 2015, 14:01:27 PM
Plus the fact that Reg is extra careful on prayer day, and anyway he has probably dropped in on Mecca on the way back to Turkey from the Saudi Arabia visit.   ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 06, 2015, 14:18:05 PM
He is doing his homework. I am expecting him to announce on Monday that he has discovered the conspiracy between Hismet's parallel state and the interest rate lobby that has been behind Turkey's recent problems.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Kevin Sowten on March 06, 2015, 18:17:53 PM
Coinmill giving 4.00   :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on March 06, 2015, 18:56:25 PM
xe.com are only offering 3.96 now.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 06, 2015, 19:24:20 PM
Coinmill giving 4.00    :)

Must be an error.  Coinmill uses yahoo finance data and they're showing a high of 3.99 for the day.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: madmart on March 06, 2015, 20:07:42 PM
Looks like we'll be giving the Clarity Card a kicking when we come over!!!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 11, 2015, 10:22:12 AM
It is a soap opera. First, PM Davutoglu says after his meeting with financiers in New York that the Central Bank will do whatever it takes to stabilize the currency and Monday is a good day for the lira. Second, Erdogan's best buddy Economy Minister Zeybekei on TV says the CB doesn't have to do anything because everything is fine and Tuesday is a bad day for the lira. Thirs, at the end of Tuesday afternoon Davutoglu says CB is doing a great job and stresses its independence and, guess what, so far Wednesday is a good day for the lira. So the ball is now back with the Erdogan gang to sabotage this improvement. Continuing ... on the ever popular "Life with the AKP", daily installments.

When RTE moved to the Presidency and built Xanadu I thought, along with most people I guess, that Davutoglu was just a glove puppet. But now he seems to have allied with Deputy PM Babacan (architect of AKP "economic miracle" of the first ten years of AKP government) and Babacan's close mate Basci at the CB. Splits in AKP now seem to be coming to the fore - and not just on economic/financial matters. Perhaps Gul will stand in June (does anyone know?) and help to stir things further. Is RTE scheme of transferring real power from the Prime Ministry to the Presidency going to be possible?

But now, back to the continuing saga of "What the Lira did Next".
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on March 11, 2015, 10:51:21 AM
A wonderful interview of mixed messages from Nihat Zeybekci yesterday.He didnt want to give instructions to the Central Bank about its future interest rate decisions as the Central Bank is independent BUT it should have cut interest rates BEFORE the February policy meeting that delivered its 0.25% reduction.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 11, 2015, 14:01:12 PM
Basci and Babacan are going to a meeting at Erdogan at 4.45pm (Turkish time). Reports say the betting in the money markets is that there is going to be an outbreak of harmony - or at least a truce - and RTE will agree to let Basci do his job. RTE back down? Really? That will be a novelty. So will it be black smoke or white smoke coming from Erdogan Towers at the end of the meeting? Whichever it is will set the agenda for the lira over the coming weeks ... maybe, other things being equal, economic data permitting, until the mighty dollar steamrollers over it ...
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 12, 2015, 09:55:28 AM
I find the lira doing surprisingly well again today given that yesterday's meeting seemed to end in standoff rather than agreement. The lira has strengthened 0.6% against the dollar. There are signs that more people are realizing the impact of a weak lira on ordinary Turks. I didn't immediately see why food prices should be strongly affected until I read this in TodaysZaman "fertilizer, seed, fuel and pesticides make up between 80 and 85 percent of agricultural inputs, and Turkey imports all of them from abroad". So further increases in food prices seem likely to be on the way.

http://www.todayszaman.com/business_weakening-lira-likely-to-boost-food-prices_374942.html
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 13, 2015, 13:08:32 PM
In what could be the most feeble opening line of any Financial Times article, FT Fast says "Still no delight for Turkish lira" (doesn't it make you groan?). It is pointing to the end of the brief respite for the currency this week. This morning the dollar strengthened by 2%. Economy Minister Zeybekei has been saying this is OK it just because the $ is strong all round the world. But since the £ also strengthened by up to 1.5% this doesn't wash. He also says an overvalued lira would be a diaster. This may sound odd to people who have seen it losing 13% of its value in 2015 so far, but if the current level is still overvalued, it won't be long before it comes down to what Mr Z calls its "proper value". More sleepless nights for Basci? The next CB policy meeting is Tuesday.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 16, 2015, 17:26:05 PM
No significant bumps for the Lira today; indeed it has strengthened 0.7% against the dollar. So what is it for tomorrow? "Hold steady, me hearties"?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on March 17, 2015, 14:05:59 PM
"Hold steady, me hearties"?
Which is exactly what the Central Bank did today at their monthly meeting leaving interest rates alone.Over to Reg now for his rant.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on March 17, 2015, 20:24:17 PM
British holidaymakers heading abroad over the summer should buy their holiday money now as sterling is set for a nosedive in the months leading up to the General Election, financial analysts have warned.

The upcoming UK election outcome is far from certain and history suggests that foreign exchange markets tend to punish sterling when this is the case.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2999168/Is-time-swap-pound-holiday-cash-Experts-warn-sterling-set-rocky-ride-ahead-general-election.html
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 10, 2015, 13:27:39 PM
I wonder if Government and Central Bank have come to an agreement about the dollar. Now that RTE has stopped ranting at Basci on a weekly basis the TRY has been doing well against £ and € for the last couple of weeks. Meanwhile the $ has been quietly creeping up - banging its head on 2.64 today. Has it been agreed that the dollar is doing well against just about every world currency (including £ and €) so it is futile for Turley to worry about it? That's certainly been the line advocated by some RTE close supporters.

Not going to help businesses though when it comes to servicing dollar-based investment in their companies and nor paying for imports fixed at dollar prices.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 13, 2015, 10:37:10 AM
The dollar has gone over 2.65TL to a new record high. Nobody appears to making a fuss about it. Hmmm.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on April 13, 2015, 11:02:11 AM
Yes no fuss from Reg and co.  Nor indeed from the Brit community here in Turkey.  No surprise there though as the pound has remained steady around the  3.85 rate for the last few weeks, but that is due, in the main, to the pound falling - due to general election uncertainties - against most currencies, and so almost matching exactly the fall in the TL.

So if the result of the UK General Election is a majority, or a quickly convened coalition, government we could possibly see the £ to TL rate around 4TL to the £.  Not forgetting of course the possible effects, up or down, of the result of the Turkish General election.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Saga Louts on April 13, 2015, 12:15:31 PM
What is the exchange rate at the moment   £ to TL in Fethiye
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on April 13, 2015, 13:39:18 PM
I think I just saw 3.78 at the change shop on the Calis Strip, hard to tell with the sun blazing on the neon sign.  Obviously better rate at the banks in town.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Saga Louts on April 13, 2015, 17:01:36 PM
Thanks for that
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: wickwilly on April 13, 2015, 18:41:51 PM
3.86 in Seker Bank at 2 pm but now 3.89 on inter bank exchange rate.
WW
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on April 14, 2015, 13:01:49 PM
3.80 at the Calis Change Office this afternoon.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 14, 2015, 13:59:32 PM
So if the result of the UK General Election is a majority, or a quickly convened coalition, government we could possibly see the £ to TL rate around 4TL to the £. 
You might not have to wait for May. £ at 3.93 this afternoon.

CLICK: 3.94
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on April 14, 2015, 16:16:47 PM
Your right Colwyn, big fall for the TL today at 3.94 when I last looked.  This time it is the TL against the $ that is the issue, with the Financial Media  reporting that the financial markets do not trust the AKP Government-  in particular president Reg - to put things right, particularly after the upcoming Turkish election.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on April 14, 2015, 17:24:32 PM
  Tl 3.97 a few minutes ago on GarantiBank Web Site
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 15, 2015, 12:42:36 PM
Through 3.99 this afternoon. Soon we will be on the countdown (countup?) to 4.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 15, 2015, 12:51:34 PM
Pretty inevitable I reckon, only a matter of time.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: philrose on April 15, 2015, 13:20:51 PM
Just hit 4.005
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 15, 2015, 13:45:33 PM
Now we can all work out how much an 8TL Efes is in £s.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on April 15, 2015, 13:49:49 PM
Also a new low against the Dollar breaking through the 2.70 level.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 15, 2015, 14:02:13 PM
The Financial Times is mooting that the lira is entering "free fall territory" against the dollar. That seems rather extreme to me but there will be plenty to think about ahead of next week's CB Monetary Committee meeting on the 22nd.

http://www.ft.com/fastft/308292/turkish-lira-entering-free-fall-territory
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on April 15, 2015, 14:12:29 PM
RTE couldn't contain himself and is mouthing off again, are things falling apart before the elections.?

Even the Pope is out to topple him with his "Dark Force ". Today he has warned the Pope to be quiet.

His son lost a slander case against a newspaper yesterday. The Armed Forces are speaking out.

Inflation up, Unemployment up, I wonder if his time is.??     I'm praying fervently.   
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on April 15, 2015, 14:18:02 PM
xe.com are showing it at 4.00069.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on April 15, 2015, 15:02:16 PM
4.01TL to £ on XE now.... I can't see how they can avoid a - sizeable - interest hike at this rate, and remember the TL is doing worse still against the dollar and most other currencies.  Mind you Reg might address the issue by putting a large tax on the booze, that'll b*gger up Colwyn's quick Efes reckoner.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 15, 2015, 15:39:36 PM
RTE couldn't contain himself and is mouthing off again, are things falling apart before the elections.?

Even the Pope is out to topple him with his "Dark Force ". Today he has warned the Pope to be quiet.

His son lost a slander case against a newspaper yesterday. The Armed Forces are speaking out.
Any links Kevin?.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Eric on April 15, 2015, 15:40:40 PM
XE Currency Converter
ConverterRatesNewsInfo
1.00 GBP   =   4.01947 TRY
British Pound   ↔   Turkish Lira
1 GBP = 4.01947 TRY   1 TRY = 0.248789 GBP
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Eric on April 15, 2015, 15:45:47 PM
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ankara-snubs-1915-vote-says-pope-part-of-plot.aspx?pageID=238&nID=81074&NewsCatID=338

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-presidents-son-loses-case-against-journalist.aspx?pageID=238&nID=81082&NewsCatID=338


Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 15, 2015, 15:51:07 PM
Thanks Eric.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Pussinboots on April 15, 2015, 15:58:04 PM
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-presidents-son-loses-case-against-journalist.aspx?pageID=517&nID=81082&NewsCatID=338
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on April 22, 2015, 17:39:54 PM
Something going on - from a touch over 4 to 4.07 all in a day.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 22, 2015, 17:47:51 PM
GBP has had a very good day and is up across the board including $ and € as well as TL - only exception is the Russian Rouble.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on April 22, 2015, 18:42:15 PM
Got 4,1 in   Sekerbank today,
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 22, 2015, 21:02:27 PM
Something going on - from a touch over 4 to 4.07 all in a day.

It hit a low of 4.09 at lunchtime today.

Five to the pound by mid May anyone?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on April 22, 2015, 23:24:11 PM
I said Five a few months ago. RTE is gagging but the rhetoric will increase as the election approaches, the dirty tricks
are a certainty, possible violence, nothing good on the horizon, the markets will get rattled by the whole thing, ect ect.
 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on April 23, 2015, 05:39:33 AM
The Central Bank left Interest Rates as they were after their monthly meeting yesterday.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 23, 2015, 09:57:34 AM
The GBP has lost ground to every currency listed by the BBC Market Data website with the exception of only two currencies - the New Zealand dollar and the Turkish lira. The US dollar continues its steady upward match and hit a new record against the lira at over 2.73.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on April 24, 2015, 10:20:14 AM
    Tl 4.12 and rising. !!   GarantiBank 2 mins ago.      ;)           


    Updated to Tl 4.13. 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 24, 2015, 11:39:07 AM
Keep up Kevin, 4.14 now  :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on April 24, 2015, 11:47:37 AM
Sorry John, I blinked.     :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 24, 2015, 12:09:53 PM
The £ has been on a giddy ride. Wednesday up across the board; Thursday down nearly everywhere; today up again. Meanwhile the $ has been steadily marching on. Another record made today at over 2.74.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 05, 2015, 16:30:05 PM
The odd world of currency. Rule #1 of currency is that markets don't like uncertainty. Here we are a little more than 24 hours ahead of the most uncertain UK election in living memory. So what does the £ do? Shoots up by about 0.75% today against the TL while the $ has strolled up by a mere 0.25%. Anybody who predicted that is entitled to advise tourists on what the exchange rate will be in August.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on May 05, 2015, 20:47:50 PM
Anybody who predicted that is entitled to advise tourists on what the exchange rate will be in August.

Yes but can these successful economic pundits be trusted to advise tourists of the price of Efes in August?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on May 08, 2015, 16:03:52 PM

     Back up to Tl. 4.14           The President has spoken. ??
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on May 08, 2015, 16:28:52 PM
yes I had 4.14 in Seker bank this morning,
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 08, 2015, 16:38:29 PM

     Back up to Tl. 4.14           The President has spoken. ??
Can't blame RTE for everything Kevin. The £ is up against every major currency in the world - except the Mexican peso. We must have had an election result or something.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on May 08, 2015, 16:58:02 PM
You mean we must have had a positive election result or something, Colwyn ;-)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 08, 2015, 17:03:42 PM
Positive as in "definitive" Stoop. Very positive for bankers, financiers and millionaires like Cameron, Osborne and their chums. A tragedy for most of the rest of us. Case of turkeys voting for Xmas.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on May 08, 2015, 17:07:10 PM
Or positive in the fact we are not going to be bankrupted by left wing idiots hell bent on spending what we don't have  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 08, 2015, 17:21:32 PM
No, not like that at all.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: GordonA on May 08, 2015, 18:16:32 PM
Or positive in the fact we are not going to be bankrupted by left wing idiots hell bent on spending what we don't have   :)

Here is the future for Britain, unless you are one of the " Eton Elite ".

https://youtu.be/0YBumQHPAeU
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on May 08, 2015, 18:26:47 PM
When Labour is led by people who live by and promote true Labour values I will consider voting for them again.

For the last 15 years Labour has been hijacked by a bunch of career freaks and politically correct prats.

Blair fooled me at his first election and it still irks me that I was taken in by the hypocritic  b###ard.

His true values are reflected in his bank balances and property portfolios. Today many of his former close

aides were found out and kicked out.          Karma.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on May 08, 2015, 18:44:59 PM

   Update, back on topic  Tl  4.17 two minutes ago
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 11, 2015, 15:43:11 PM
Pound setting more records again today.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 11, 2015, 17:09:08 PM
Five to the pound sterling doesn't look that far away - take into account the UK election results coupled with the up and coming Turkish elections, definitely on target for end of May.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on May 11, 2015, 17:33:54 PM

    Tl  4.19  GarantiBank.          ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 11, 2015, 17:36:45 PM
£ just had a peek over 4.2TL.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on May 12, 2015, 10:24:22 AM


    Tl  4. 22-5             :o
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 15, 2015, 10:09:23 AM
At last the question in the title makes sense. The lira has been gaining ground against the dollar all week and the £ is looking like falling below 4.00. What is going on? Today's Zaman thinks it has the answer. Recent political opinion polls predict that AKP will achieve enough votes to achieve a stable government BUT not enough to deliver the draconian constitutional changes that Erdogan wants and that would hand over power to him and away from parliament so that he could begin a sultan-like rule from the White Palace.

If true I think this is the best political news that those who love Turkey have received in a very long time. However, having just gone through an UK election where all the polls got it wrong I am not going to get too excited. In the short run though it is good news for the lira.

http://www.todayszaman.com/business_turkish-lira-set-for-strongest-week-in-a-year-as-election-fears-fade_380670.html (http://www.todayszaman.com/business_turkish-lira-set-for-strongest-week-in-a-year-as-election-fears-fade_380670.html)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: micky mouse on May 15, 2015, 18:54:07 PM
Exchange rate yesterday 4.60 just over 4 and a half lira to the pound great for the tourists.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on May 15, 2015, 19:03:34 PM

   Micky

  Should that be  Tl 4.06     ??
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 15, 2015, 19:05:02 PM
No it wasn't.  It strengthened from 4.14ish to 4.08ish yesterday.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jack13 on May 15, 2015, 23:18:00 PM
exchange rate in calis tonight 3.96 tyl .
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 16, 2015, 10:49:56 AM
Anyone with a few tenners to spare run - don't walk - over to Mickey's and have him change some money for you.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on May 16, 2015, 11:07:42 AM
This is a great topic (and as Colwyn mentioned, suddenly back on topic!). Thanks to all who offer up causes and reasons for the movements in the exchange rate. Sadly I find it fascinating :D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Fran on May 16, 2015, 11:25:07 AM
3.98 in Fethiye change shop today
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on May 16, 2015, 12:10:29 PM
I find it very worrying that Turkeys currency, and it's value can change so dramatically purely upon

the words and actions of one person, a President, whose role according to the Turkish Constitution

is supposed to be politically neutral. It doesn't seem like an enticing situation for investors.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on May 16, 2015, 12:17:17 PM
He can say what he likes Kev, his cash is under the bed - in euros.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on May 16, 2015, 18:23:45 PM

   In sheuroboxes methinks.      ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: c1 on May 17, 2015, 09:55:32 AM
Turkey a bit like Greece not many pay tax, has large public sector. And you only have to pay Turkish NI for eleven years to qualify for state pension of around 900 Try. These and many other factors including lack of investment in other means of energy have made them reliant on the volititity of the oil market. Hence the yo yoing effect on Try / other currency's and subsequent bank interest rates.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: MarKar on May 18, 2015, 14:41:42 PM
Is the rate still dropping??
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Rimms on May 18, 2015, 16:16:34 PM
Yep, less than 4 now in the change shops
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 02, 2015, 17:09:18 PM
Since I'm flying off to Turkey tomorrow, I'm pleased to see the £ so strong. Not the lira weakening for a change, simply the pound going up to 4.11.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: echogirl1 on June 02, 2015, 17:52:17 PM
Im off 2morrow as well, will keep an eye out for you and hope you look as young as your avatar!!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Toky on June 02, 2015, 17:58:43 PM
4 00 today at change office Calis.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 02, 2015, 18:25:08 PM
hope you look as young as your avatar!!
That photo was taken over 60 years ago. I've hardly changed a bit - just got rather more innocent and naive
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on June 02, 2015, 18:30:42 PM
We noted it was only 3.97  in Oludeniz today and 12 TL for Efes....
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 02, 2015, 19:16:12 PM
Not the lira weakening for a change, simply the pound going up to 4.11.

You sure?  The lira has fallen against the GBP, USD & EUR this past couple of days.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Eric on June 02, 2015, 19:40:41 PM
You will get less at a change shop than a bank, and you will pay more for drinks at a popular holiday resort than you will in town.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on June 02, 2015, 20:59:54 PM
I have seen more at the Change Shops than the Bank in Fethiye.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 03, 2015, 09:40:26 AM
Not the lira weakening for a change, simply the pound going up to 4.11.

You sure?  The lira has fallen against the GBP, USD & EUR this past couple of days.

JF
Well £ gained 1% against $ yesterday, which helped it on its way. Although the $ had been gaining against TL for a few days it actually fell back yesterday (still at a high level though).
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 03, 2015, 10:03:40 AM
The USD strengthened yesterday and Monday, according to Yahoo finance - up about 1.25 kurus from Friday - and currently up just over 2 kurus from Friday.

Should be a fairly interesting week, and dependent on this weekends results, an extremely interesting Monday  :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on June 03, 2015, 10:04:00 AM
Phil got 4 TL this morning in Calis.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 03, 2015, 10:17:06 AM
Finansbank buy rate (what you get changing GBP to TL) is currently a touch under 4.09 for internet banking customers.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 03, 2015, 10:27:07 AM
And yesterday's Visa ATM rate was 4.068. From a strictly holidaymaker point of view I'll be happy to be get comfortably above 4. From the point of view of Turkish political economy, is the quiet downward drift of the Lira simply pre-election nerves or is there anything more specific?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 03, 2015, 10:46:14 AM
Think there a few factors affecting it right now. 

The Bank Asya takeover has shown how this current government can pretty much do as they want, which must send warning signs to international investors.  Exports are down by nearly 20%, tourism down by 8%, strikes in the vehicle manufacturing industry...  even the contractors building the third bridge in Istanbul are verging on bankruptcy due to FX rates (USD in this instance).

Factor in an election, probably one of the most important in recent times, and its no wonder the markets are a bit shaky over the TL.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 04, 2015, 10:12:46 AM
Shaky indeed.  Down to just under 4.17 from 4.10 last night.

Some pollsters have been predicting that no party will gain an overall majority, this was supposed to help the lira. However, it appears that everyone is now expecting the usual cheating to have an effect, so much so that the Turkish Bar Association have set up an "anti corruption" telephone helpline.  Good intentions, but wont have much effect methinks.

Tonne of coal or a set of pots and pans anyone?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on June 04, 2015, 10:53:04 AM
The lira's woes were not helped by yesterdays inflation figures which rose from 7.9% in April to 8.1% last month.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 04, 2015, 13:44:53 PM
Just taken 400TL out of Turkish ATM. I'll know tomorrow whether the bank has charhed me more, or less, than £100. I'm betting I'll be a large Efes on the good side.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Toky on June 04, 2015, 14:05:34 PM
4 500 at change shop Calis just now.  Brilliant.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Rimms on June 04, 2015, 14:10:56 PM
It has been as high as 4.16 today but since dropped back to 4.11. Volatile to say the least !
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 04, 2015, 14:43:28 PM
4 500 at change shop Calis just now.  Brilliant.
Are you sure that is the selling price? Looks more like buying cost.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 04, 2015, 15:20:02 PM
It has been as high as 4.16 today but since dropped back to 4.11. Volatile to say the least !
Wow! Down and down ($ down 0.88)! Has Basci been throwing money at it (under instruction?) to avoid the embarassment of all-time lows before the election?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Toky on June 04, 2015, 17:49:25 PM
it changed 3 times in as many minutes.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on June 04, 2015, 18:22:20 PM
4.7 in Fethiye Changes shops.  Everything in the shops seems so cheap now... Help  :) 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on June 04, 2015, 18:37:09 PM
4.7 ?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on June 04, 2015, 18:38:07 PM
4.5, 4.7...women eh
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on June 04, 2015, 18:38:31 PM
4.07    :-[
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on June 04, 2015, 18:39:45 PM
Yes, I know, but leave me alone  I am in a state of happiness.  In fact, even came from Fethiye  today and have put on a pan on mince and tatties for dinner... :) 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 04, 2015, 18:44:26 PM
I suppose you can't afford proper food after spending all your money on a false rate in Fethiye shops..
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on June 04, 2015, 19:10:38 PM
No, been here a month and cannot eat out every night, just fancied an eat in tonight, with a few drinks. Anyway Phil handles the money, he, unlike me, is good at Maths.   We have  enough money Colwyn, thanks for your concern, but think we will struggle through.    :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Toky on June 04, 2015, 19:14:36 PM
"King Edward" tatties I presume Jacqui
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on June 04, 2015, 19:17:40 PM
Not sure Toky, got them in the market... Probably Queen of Turkey... you know me.  I would not buy anything less.   
Disaster, Phll tells me we don't have a lot of gin left.  I may have to go onto Vodka, or Rum or Whisky.  Major emergency at Mavi Villa.  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Toky on June 04, 2015, 19:21:52 PM
mental wummin lol.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 05, 2015, 18:28:13 PM
Just taken 400TL out of Turkish ATM. I'll know tomorrow whether the bank has charged me -nmore, or less, than £100. I'm betting I'll be a large Efes on the good side.
So I win that bet with me. The 400TL cost me £98.14 at a rate of 4.075 to the £. Which is more than enough to buy me a draught Efes during "Happy Hour" (1pm - 7pm and non-stop Blues).

[They point at me and say "There's a fellow that's easily pleased"].
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on June 07, 2015, 23:00:25 PM

  Election over.  Tl 4.2035. 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on June 08, 2015, 06:20:07 AM
4.7 in Fethiye Changes shops.


Could well be a premonition for the end of the week.XE showing 4.24 now.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: c1 on June 08, 2015, 09:45:44 AM
Close to free fall?  Reminds me of A man who jump from the top of the Empire State Building when asked "how was he doing" at around the twenty second floor said "so far so good".
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 08, 2015, 12:14:20 PM
I think it was in freefall, until the Turkish markets opened at eight this morning.  It was just shy of 4.29 against the pound and 2.80 against the dollar but I think there is a lot of work being done to try to recover it from these all time lows.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on June 08, 2015, 16:12:26 PM
They were giving 4.10 in Fethiye today.  So it has steadied a bit.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 08, 2015, 16:22:33 PM
They were giving 4.10 in Fethiye today.  So it has steadied a bit.
Was that at the clothes shop? The good old 4 point TEN!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on June 08, 2015, 17:05:58 PM
Catch up Colwyn.  Colin now has an Estate Agency, but still stands at the door offering to change money.  i'd love to know how he gets away with it.   We saw an elderly man in there today changing money.  Another lamb to the slaughter I thought.
We changed our money at Dikmen's at 4.10...
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 13, 2015, 13:58:18 PM
Over the last few months I have a a very poor appetite. So I have taken to eating unconventional meals - such as a couple of starters instead of a main meal. Last night I decided to go to a nice fish restaurant for their big bowl of fish soup with big lumps of fish in it (and, of course, the compulsory half a loaf) and then off, a couple of hundred yards away, to my favourite gozlemeci for a kiymali. Both places were non-alcoholic so no extras there. Total cost for the combined meal 18TL which at today's exchange rate is £4.31 - nearly, just a bit less. Cheap fella to take out, I am. But tonight I think I'll splash £10 on a steak (and see how much of it I can manage).

UK Post Office Survey says Turkey this year getting too expensive for Brits. Yeah.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 15, 2015, 16:57:51 PM
But tonight I think I'll splash £10 on a steak (and see how much of it I can manage).

Well, how much of it did you manage?

Looks like the uncertainty over who will jump into bed with who is further weakening the lira - probably not helped by the rise in both unemployment and inflation. 

Also interesting to note that Pegasus have announced that they are (from 1st July) using the USD as the base currency for international flight bookings, as opposed to the Euro which has its own difficulties. Cue THY to do the same maybe?  Help pay for the billions of USD they've committed to, over god know how many years, to buy all these shiny new aircraft.


JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on June 15, 2015, 17:33:50 PM

  And cue the rest of the Airlines using the USD to disguise price hikes.?

  The  Turkish Lira is currently Tl  4.2630 by the way.  Splash out on two steaks Colwyn.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 15, 2015, 19:11:40 PM
Well, how much of it did you manage?
I managed three quarters of it and was very pleased with myself. The restaurant boss, Mev, was most concerned but I assured him it was down to me and not his kitchen. Every time I order steaks in Britain or Turkey I swear "Never again". I cook better at home and a fraction of the price (a smaller fraction of UK prices). And when in Turkey I should eat Turkish food.

But, back to the important business of this thread - more than four and a quarter lira to the pound.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on June 17, 2015, 09:49:24 AM
Just past 4.30 on XE this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 17, 2015, 09:57:14 AM
Depending on what happens with the eurozone finance ministers meeting regarding Greece this week, we could see the GBP strengthening and the lira dropping further.  A bit of stability needed in Ankara to stop the slide methinks...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 17, 2015, 12:27:28 PM
Pound is up against all major currencies today, including +0.6% against $.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on June 17, 2015, 16:21:41 PM
Turkey's central bank meeting next Tuesday, I wonder if we will see an interest rate hike?  With there being no elected government in place and Prez Reg weakened at this time by the General Election result.  The 'independent' Central Bank Governor make take this opportunity to do something about the slide in the Turkish lira (4.31 to £ at this time) before the politicos get back behind their desks.  If the Guv does have the balls to do it, Prez Reg will not be a happy bunny at all, and there will be more than a few toys coming out of the pram from his direction.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 17, 2015, 16:31:23 PM
If we were to have a bet UBT I would bet against a change unless anything significant happens in the next few days - but without any great confidence. The rate of the lira against the £ doesn't matter very much except to Brits. The important thing is TL v $ and that is actually better for the lira today than it was at the end of Monday 8 June the day after the election. The CB will possibly think that it is on top of things. For as long as RTE keeps his mouth shut.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: c1 on June 17, 2015, 17:11:06 PM
Check out City Am view 16.6.15 on the out look, not very promising at all.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on June 18, 2015, 07:43:42 AM
Colwyn I understand the point you make on the dollar being the key fx rate for Turkey, however my point was on the general decline of the lira, against all currencies, with the example of the pound lira rate being the one that people recognise on CBF.  Conventional economic wisdom is that the 'medium' term decline of around 15%, of the lira - not snapshot daily rate changes - ishould be addressed by an increase in interest rates. I simply point out that with enormous political opposition from Erdogoan, that now could be the time for the somewhat enfeebled Central Bank Governor to finally act. Like you though I am not holding my breath, but I am prepared to be pleasantly surprised.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 22, 2015, 11:13:37 AM
The lira has had a good start to the week up 0.8% against the $ and 1% against £ and €. This despite expectations of no rate change by CB tomorrow.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on June 23, 2015, 12:34:06 PM
AS expected no change in Central Bank's interest rates this month. Interesting to see what Reg has to say about this, he thought he told or rather instructed the Bank Governor to cut the rates.  Look out for instructions for the Gov to report to Reg's office, or worse still the gov is arrested for treason....
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: c1 on June 24, 2015, 17:11:30 PM
And today I see two ministers have resigned. The dark clouds gather over reg methinks.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 24, 2015, 17:41:55 PM
I can't find any news on this. Do you have a link please?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: GordonA on June 25, 2015, 12:13:44 PM
I can't find any news on this. Do you have a link please?

Obviously not Colwyn, " Rumour Mill " at it again, mayhap ??
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: nichola on June 26, 2015, 09:42:01 AM
Nothing in the Turkish press about Ministers resigning Doğan says... the newly elected MP's were only sworn in a couple of days ago.

Off topic but increasing speculation about a November election may be thwarted by more recent news of a possible deal between AKP and MHP to form a coalition.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 26, 2015, 11:32:11 AM
Here are the runners and riders for the Speaker Election. Round One is on Sunday 28th June.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/speaker-election-for-turkeys-parliament-turns-into-coalition-rehearsal.aspx?pageID=238&nID=84496&NewsCatID=338
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 29, 2015, 17:32:24 PM
Sorry, wrong info. Round One is tomorrow.

Today the lira has continued its usual progress of sinking against key currencies. The £ is now at 4.25 again {+1.8%), $ at 2.7 (+1.3%} and € at an astonishing 3.02 (+3.25%).
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on June 29, 2015, 20:03:33 PM

  As a Finansbank customer I learned today that it is  99.8% owned by the Greek National Bank.

  And there's me thinking Greece's problems are bugger all to do with me.I'll pay more attention now.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: tel on June 29, 2015, 20:12:53 PM
Kevin3, I thought they sold up their majority share the other year.  Sounds like I better check it out huh
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Eric on June 29, 2015, 20:36:42 PM
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/eyes-on-finansbank-amid-greeces-fallout-fears-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=84706&NewsCatID=344
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kenkay on July 14, 2015, 02:33:35 AM
Hi all. Can anyone tell me the exchange rate in Calis/Fethiye  at the mo. For instance from Sedat at Zumrut jewellers or from one of the bureaus in Fethiye. Reason being that my daughter and family are coming out on Thursday and i'm considering selling them some lira from my stash  :D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Hamlet on July 14, 2015, 05:29:17 AM
4.04tl to the £ at the change office in Fethiye yesterday.
Be aware though that as the banks will be closing on Thursday, until Tuesday, due to Bayram, the rate will probably drop in the next day or two.  8)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kenkay on July 14, 2015, 09:15:02 AM
Thanks Hamlet   :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: nichola on July 14, 2015, 09:25:54 AM
Doğan says the banks should be open on Monday as Bayram is for three days - can anyone confirm?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on July 14, 2015, 09:43:05 AM
When I asked in TEB bank yesterday they said they are open on Monday,Nichola.
4.05 at the Dikmen change office in Fethiye this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: nichola on July 14, 2015, 09:49:31 AM
Thanks - that will be the same for all of the banks then and I think they close at lunch time on Thursday   :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on July 14, 2015, 09:51:29 AM
Yes,half day on Thursday.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Hamlet on July 14, 2015, 20:18:52 PM
When I asked in TEB bank yesterday they said they are open on Monday,Nichola.
4.05 at the Dikmen change office in Fethiye this morning.

Oops! I stand corrected, shouldn't listen to rumour or just one party!  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 22, 2015, 12:58:34 PM
I have been rather surprised that the lira hasn't suffered more with Turkey being governmentless - or in the hands of RTE. But today is is dropping again. The $ is over 2.7 and the £ bouncing about around 4.25.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on July 22, 2015, 13:44:44 PM
According to the financial press Colwyn, the fall in the lira today and yesterday is a result of concerns in the security situation here.  In particular the recent suicide bombing and whether Pres. Reg crosses into Syria to push back the Kurds or not.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 22, 2015, 16:13:21 PM
whether Pres. Reg crosses into Syria to push back the Kurds or not.
I suppose a bomber in the eastern town of Suruc might cause some doubt. Rather more caused by a pro-ISIS demonstration in Istanbul which was allowed to take place unchallenged by police but when protests against this were held in Istanbul and Ankara out came the teargas and water canons again. However, an incursion into Syria to fight the most effective force taking on ISIS would be far more major and have incalculable consequences for relations between Turkey and the USA, EU and NATO. I mean that literally: I tried to figure out what the consequences might be and couldn't come up with any clear answer.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on July 23, 2015, 14:58:31 PM
AS expected no change in Central Bank's interest rates this month.

Nor again this month,the 5th month in a row the Central Bank has left interest rates as they were.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 23, 2015, 15:54:39 PM
Yabanci, here is a succinct statement of the issues. Please do not ask me what the bloody hell this expert is talking about - except it is not good news for the lira in the foreseeable future.  “We find the central bank of Turkey somewhat smoothening its dovish stance,” said Ozlem Derici, chief economist at Deniz Invest in Istanbul. “We do not expect a material ease in liquidity conditions as volatility in exchange rate is unlikely to abate amid political uncertainties and emerged geopolitical risks.” (Wall Street Journal, today).
http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-holds-rates-steady-as-political-risks-pressure-lira-1437655193 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-holds-rates-steady-as-political-risks-pressure-lira-1437655193)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on July 24, 2015, 09:27:59 AM
“We find the central bank of Turkey somewhat smoothening its dovish stance,”

Does that mean the same as leaving interest rates the same for the 5th month in a row?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 24, 2015, 10:20:48 AM
I wonder if the slight strengthening of the lira today has anything to do with the air strikes on IS positions? 

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 24, 2015, 12:19:13 PM
Perhaps it was just a blip John. $ now on 2.75 (up 0.5%) and £ at 4.26.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 24, 2015, 14:19:13 PM
Yeah, I think so too now.  Seemed to strengthen a bit when the Turkish markets opened then bombed once everywhere else woke up.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 27, 2015, 11:25:09 AM
Well we've been here before, but it is still a milestone - £ passed 4.3TL. 

P.S. And later it hit a record 4.3237.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 29, 2015, 09:40:22 AM
And another unfortunate milestone this morning, 4.326tl to the GBP.  I think this an all time low against the GBP and the USD price on Monday (2.774) an all time low against the USD.

The great irony is that this makes Turkey an attractive place (financially) to visit from the UK but tourist numbers are falling (due to concerns over security?).  Hotel occupancy figures for June are just under 8% down on last year which is a similar downturn to the overall tourist figure (8.1% down).

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on July 29, 2015, 09:47:39 AM
John I think most of those overall Turkey numbers were down because of the Russians keeping away, which has hit Antalya and it's fancy 6 star hotels particularly hard apparently.  There still seems to be plenty of people around in both Calis and Hissy / Ovacik. A continuing example of the plucky Brit picking up a bargain in so called trouble spots.

Although perhaps not such a good bargain when you consider some of the 'staged' price rises some establishments have been hitting them with, particularly in Hissy/Ovacik. >:( >:(
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 29, 2015, 10:15:26 AM
I don't disagree, the figures may be slightly skewed by the drop in Russian tourism and you're right, according to the stats Antalya has taken a hammering. 

That said, drops of 12.1% in Ankara and 7.9% in Istanbul, areas where the lack of Russians is going to be less noticeable must be concerning to the tourist organisations.

Not so sure the "plucky brits" will continue to flock to Turkey if the security situation begins to deteriorate - personally, I don't have a problem and if our girls decided to take advantage of the weak currency and jump over to our place for a week I'd say "crack on!".  However, folks I've spoken to in the UK recently, even those who have been to Turkey before, have all said they'd avoid Turkey just now.

The most annoying one was where three friends, who'd all been to Istanbul before (by way of excursions from Bulgaria), decided to cancel a late August break there.  I'd been telling them for years that they should spend longer than 24hrs as its a really special place and they'd have a brilliant time.  Doubt they'll rebook for a long time now.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 30, 2015, 10:00:23 AM
Another unfortunate milestone when the markets opened this morning, over 4.34tl to the GBP and over 2.78 to the USD. 

Makes me wonder how THY are hoping to fund all these shiny new aircraft they were ordering (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22080766) a couple of years ago...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 30, 2015, 10:22:56 AM
Never mind, the lira will obviously get stronger when RTE bans the HDP who have been undermining the currency as well as all the other mischief for which they are responsible.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 31, 2015, 10:11:31 AM
When I came back from Turkey last month I brought a 50TL note with me. It had cost me £12. A month later it is only worth £11.50. I wonder how much it will be worth when I return to Turkey next June. Any offers?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 31, 2015, 10:30:19 AM
Five bob.  Take it or leave it.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on July 31, 2015, 11:17:35 AM
I'll swap it for an old 50tl note, no I'll do better I'll swap it for an old 50,000,000 lira note.  As J.F said take or leave it, the time and tide of the FX market waits for no man.  Do we have a deal  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 31, 2015, 11:37:59 AM
You pair make Wonga look generous.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 13, 2015, 12:43:48 PM
Quietly the £ hit a record high against the the TL this afternoon = 4.3652. The $ also strong but not at record level yet. My 50TL note now down to £11.45.

P.S. Looks like I spotted the start of a run on the lira. $ now at record high and £ has hit 4.4. I'll have to have a look around news stories for the last few hours to find out what is happening.

P.P.S. Well that was obvious enough. The coalition talks between AKP and CHP broke up without agreement this afternoon. Currency markets promptly plummetted.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 13, 2015, 15:36:32 PM
Yep, and you can guess who put his foot in it...

Referring to “some who say” the CHP and the AK Parti should form a coalition, Erdoğan said it would be “suicidal” to enter a coalition if the views of “one side” do not match with the principles of the other side, (implying the AK Parti, without directly naming it.). Source (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/will-erdogans-intervention-ruin-akp-chp-coalition-chances.aspx?PageID=238&NID=86870&NewsCatID=409)

He's gaggin' for another election - he really does think the AKP will stroll it after the events of recent weeks.  Unfortunately, he may be right.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on August 13, 2015, 17:24:04 PM
OK Colwyn do you want to take that deal now?  Or would you rather wait for Prez 'Wonga' Reg to drive the price down further?  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on August 14, 2015, 12:17:09 PM
Lira has fallen further to near 4.44 to the pound in the last hour
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 14, 2015, 12:26:52 PM
And the $ is also strong. The vast majority's of Turkish companies' international investment is denominated in dollars. So the investments they agreed 12 months ago today cost 30% more to repay. That is seriously bad news for the Turkish economy and is not looking like getting any better in the next few months.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: villain on August 17, 2015, 12:21:07 PM
Another jump today - 4.47 now.

The next milestone is 4.5.

That would make for easier calculations when we arrive this week. Scratch that - maybe it'll be 10tl note = £2.00 by the time we fly home....
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 17, 2015, 16:46:14 PM
$ is up to 2.86 but I think Zeybekci has said the currency would be comfortable at 3 to the dollar - which, more-or-less, guarantees that it will be. Central Bank policy meeting tomorrow. I'm not expecting anything from that; is anyone else?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on August 18, 2015, 10:16:26 AM

  It's just hit the milestone  Tl 4.50 and heading in one direction.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 18, 2015, 12:20:48 PM
The Central Bank left rates unchanged this afternoon and the TL immediately dropped against £, $ and €. The £ now on 4.525. Which means Brits can get 1.25% more lira for their quid than they could this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 18, 2015, 12:26:22 PM
And Colwyn's 50 lira note is worth £11.05
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 18, 2015, 12:34:59 PM
Wouldn't surprise me to see 5tl to the pound shortly, and it's inching ever closer to 3tl to the dollar.

Expect another slide against the dollar shortly if the Fed increases their interest rates.

I feel sorry for anyone stuck with a large amount of lira - if you live in Turkey, and don't have any need of foreign currency then it'll be less of a hit as its only inflation that'll nibble away at your stash.  However, anyone who had hopes of the lira strengthening a year/eighteen months ago when it was 3 something to the pound must be regretting not bailing out when they could at a reasonable rate (in comparison to now).

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 18, 2015, 12:43:12 PM
Yep, and to think I was almost suicidal changing the last of our lira back at 3.11
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 18, 2015, 12:45:58 PM
And Colwyn's 50 lira note is worth £11.05
Yeah rub it in why don't you? And since you posted it has gone down to £11.01.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on August 18, 2015, 13:20:06 PM
I warned you to take my generous offer of a 50,000,000 old turkish lira note.  Too late now mate...  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on August 18, 2015, 13:38:08 PM
It looks like the financial vultures are hovering around the TL, determined to drive down the rate even more, towards a back breaking 'target' they have in mind of 3TL to the $ ....... I feel sorry for the Turks (mostly the poor) who are not able to bale out of their own currency to safer foreign currencies. Reg and the his croney AKP Government do nothing on this and other economic issues, except to blame everyone else, and demand - completely unrealistically - a cut in interest rates from the Central Bank Governor.... you would struggle to make this sort of nonsense up :( :(

Even sadder is the fact that this all plays into Reg's hands.  He can point to the enemies within and without Turkey, in particular the financial speculators - for which people are supposed to read Jewish - and why Turkey need a strong leader (dictator) with a mandate to sort out these economic problems, and other non-economic problems like the Kurds/Syria once and for all!! .... and the mugs lap it up, and then I wonder why I feel sorry for them :-\ >:(

REG YOU AINT THE SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM .........  YOU ARE THE PROBLEM
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 18, 2015, 14:23:42 PM
Yep, and to think I was almost suicidal changing the last of our lira back at 3.11

I remember   :)

And Colwyn's 50 lira note is worth £11.05
Yeah rub it in why don't you? And since you posted it has gone down to £11.01.

Another week or so and you'd be as well wiping your arse with it, it'll be worth less than a sheet of Andrex...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 19, 2015, 12:56:07 PM
it's inching ever closer to 3tl to the dollar.
2.92 this afternoon. 3.00 by the end of the week? Will any action be triggered when it passes 3? Basci seems to be sitting on his hands.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 19, 2015, 13:36:35 PM
Click, 2.93.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 19, 2015, 13:58:41 PM
Click. 2.94.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on August 20, 2015, 08:43:02 AM

 Has touched  3.00 to the dollar and a new record according to the Hurriet Daily News

 TL 4.64 to the pound

 Turkeys Election date is  November 1st.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 20, 2015, 08:54:32 AM
Yes, the markets started with a bang today with the $ rocketing to 3 and the £ following it to 2.7 before they both settled back. Basci has said he is saving rate rises until the Fed increases its own interest rates. Although this could happen in September it might be postponed to March 2016. Favourite in the betting is December. However this would still be a long period of inaction. Since last Wednesday the lira has lost 6.4% against the $. Can the Turkish economy really afford to bleed away at this rate for months?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on August 20, 2015, 09:37:23 AM
Basci has said he is saving rate rises until the Fed increases its own interest rates. Although this could happen in September it might be postponed to March 2016. Favourite in the betting is December.
That would be the first opportunity after Reg's likely enforced General Election in November....so much for the Turkish Central Bank independence, and they wonder why the lira continues to plummet!!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on August 20, 2015, 09:53:24 AM

 The economy would be allowed to bleed by the bucketful if it serves the ambitions of the "Great One".

 A few months ago I suggested the Lira would climb to 5.00 to the pound. I stand by that.

 I feel sorry for poorer Turkish folk.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 20, 2015, 09:57:16 AM
Given that Basci almost found himself charged with "treason" for not doing little Reginalds bidding earlier on in the year, I don't think it's any surprise that the TCB appear to now toe the party line.  As Colwyn said, the lira fell to 4.70 against the pound and over 3.00 before rallying slightly - nobody in Ankara appears to have a solution, although they're quick to point fingers of blame...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on August 20, 2015, 10:00:11 AM

 I'ts the turn of the Interest Lobby to carry the can this time.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 20, 2015, 17:29:43 PM
Strange activity today?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 20, 2015, 17:47:05 PM
In a way Scunner. I think for the last week the daily pattern has been lira dropping like a stone in the morning then recovering in the afternoon (although sometimes falling back at the end of the day). The difference today has been the scale of the recovery. Apart from increasing main rates, or tinkering with fringe rates, the Central Bank has two significant tools. One is Basci reassuring the money markets that he is on top of things and quite prepared to act when the right time comes. He used to be very keen on this confidence building five years ago and gained an international reputation among central bankers for his innovative approach (lots of CBs now put big emphasis on talking to key money market figures. The second thing is to chuck money at the problem. To use Turkey's dollar reserves to buy lira and shore it up. I haven't seen any reports on whether either of these have been happening today.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on August 20, 2015, 17:52:25 PM
I think there has been a bit of profit taking too, so that today's dollar reserve purchases appear to have had a larger impact.  I suspect that the speculators and their fellow travellers in the financial community will take a breath for a day or two, and start over again next week to push the Lira somewhere north of 3TL to the $.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: karaokemark on August 23, 2015, 08:53:53 AM
In a Nutshell I think
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/whatever-happened-to-the-turkish-lira.aspx?pageID=449&nID=87331&NewsCatID=403
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: thebillet on August 23, 2015, 09:56:27 AM
That makes very scary reading. It suggests the last 10 years or so is the exception and currency will return to the volatile state it used to be before.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 23, 2015, 10:05:09 AM
I opened this thread on Page 1 by mistake and was reminded of how Ian had started it. He was talking about the lira getting stronger and going to 3.56ish to £. We are now asking why the £ has gone down to 4.58 (from peak of 4.7). So 3.56 to 4.58 - and, Ian's post was in October last year, just 10 months ago.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 23, 2015, 11:01:01 AM
Are you saying Ian caused all this?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on August 23, 2015, 13:21:08 PM
Its no good blaming Ian,I think R.E has a bit to do with it.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 23, 2015, 13:26:35 PM
Ian has been very quiet on the subject lately
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on August 23, 2015, 15:04:48 PM

  Possibly preoccupied with shoe box stuffing.?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on August 24, 2015, 16:29:42 PM

   TL  4.63      And Reg hasn't said a word today. !!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on August 24, 2015, 16:45:17 PM
Thats because he is well chuffed that his team are currently sitting pretty at the top of the Spor Toto Super Lig.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: c1 on September 03, 2015, 12:13:25 PM
see what happens if and when, USA increases interest rates. I reckon after November interest rates will have to move sharply up in Turkey from around 10% to 15% this will be blamed on Alcohol, or the west, or Kurds etc. not on the poor leadership in Turkish government
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 03, 2015, 12:34:18 PM
Kinda depends who (if anyone) is in power come November.

Looks like the lira is on a slide again after gaining a bit of ground back against the pound and the dollar at the start of the week.  Some analysts are suggesting that the kidnapping of the Turkish workers in Iraq may be giving the markets jitters over the lira.  Reckon we'll just have to wait and see how little Reginald handles this one...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 07, 2015, 10:10:12 AM
Looks like the Asian markets have lost faith in the lira as well, it dropped like a stone when they opened this morning.

Reckon the security situation is the driving factor - curfews now imposed in several towns, soldiers killed in PKK attacks in Hakkari, Polis killed in Diyerbakir and to top it off, a number of municipalities in the east are saying they are going to "self rule".

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on September 07, 2015, 11:50:22 AM

  Given the repression of justice and media, and the current turmoil nationwide i'm surprised the G20 summit in Turkey is going

  ahead. But there again given the current standard of world leadership, perhaps I shouldn't be.

  It's  TL 4.63 to the £ at the moment.
   
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on September 10, 2015, 15:21:44 PM
Lira just hit 4.70 to the pound on XE.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on September 14, 2015, 07:53:27 AM
Jew1971 has posted in the Side Forum on Trip Advisor that they got 4.83 last night.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on September 14, 2015, 08:37:28 AM

  Jew must be joking.      :o
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 14, 2015, 08:51:56 AM
Our friends got 4.55 in Calis yesterday.

Exchange rate 4.73 as I type but tourists won't get that.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on September 14, 2015, 09:32:08 AM
I'm sceptical at the 4.83. Nobody else down there has commented on it yet.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on September 14, 2015, 09:34:50 AM
Just clicked over to 4.74... but never mind the sinking lira, Reg has organised for his loyal place men to dominate the AKP against those 'enemies within' the AKP who might threaten his position running up to and after the General Election.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 14, 2015, 09:36:11 AM
Wow I can't believe how many lira you get to the pound now. Great time to change your life savings into TL!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 14, 2015, 10:11:17 AM
Ouch!

Who pressed your sarcasm button this morning?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 14, 2015, 15:07:38 PM
Wow I can't believe how many lira you get to the pound now. Great time to change your life savings into TL!

Not really  ;) but we have already changed our money for next years holiday  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 14, 2015, 18:56:00 PM
I reckon that was a daft move Stoop.

5TL/£ by month end. Any takers?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: DianaJ on September 14, 2015, 19:56:44 PM
5tl by the end of the month here's hoping just in time for our return visit before end of season
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on September 14, 2015, 22:06:28 PM

  I think it will hit 5 + this year.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 15, 2015, 14:16:24 PM
I reckon that was a daft move Stoop.

5TL/£ by month end. Any takers?

But we ain't gonna be there then. Rate over here is never as good. M&S giving only 4.48 today :(

If it gets to 5 then I might see what my Cash Passport card is offering and maybe load it up a little - however only at 4.47 as I type so not sure we will get as much as our friends got us whilst they are out there at the moment  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 15, 2015, 14:24:33 PM
I didn't mean the end of the month being a better time for you to have changed, I was suggesting your rate might be a bit disappointing if the slide continues. When you are next out in 2016 the rate you just got might look a poor deal if it has slid to 19TL/£   ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on September 15, 2015, 16:18:02 PM
In which case are we going to have a competition to guess the TL rate when Stoop comes out next?

I'll go for 18.75TL to the £  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on September 15, 2015, 17:05:50 PM

  I'll raise you to  23.47TL to the £     :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 15, 2015, 17:08:38 PM
So...  are we talking New Turkish Lira or Old New Turkish Lira?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 15, 2015, 17:18:32 PM
New old yeni Turkish Lirasis, with all the noughts put back  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 15, 2015, 17:20:40 PM
Ah feck, I'll go for a conservative 37,550,442YEYTL to the quid then.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 15, 2015, 18:23:45 PM
Wasn't Barbara Streisand in that?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 15, 2015, 18:25:15 PM
Yes she was - I'm surprised at someone so young knowing that.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on September 15, 2015, 18:56:11 PM
She's a gay icon isn't she ?  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on September 15, 2015, 19:17:40 PM

  No, she's Jewish.!  Nose how to sing though.    :) 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 15, 2015, 19:18:52 PM
Don't argue with KKOB, he knows his gay icons.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on September 15, 2015, 19:37:40 PM
I most certainly do dear.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 16, 2015, 13:52:31 PM
In which case are we going to have a competition to guess the TL rate when Stoop comes out next?

I'll go for 18.75TL to the £   ;)

Ha Ha - I could fix that by changing my dates to suit  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 16, 2015, 18:14:03 PM
In which case are we going to have a competition to guess the TL rate when Stoop comes out next?

I'll go for 18.75TL to the £     ;)

Ha Ha - I could fix that by changing my dates to suit    ;)

Even if you did manage to time your visitnext year to coincide with your guess/£, you'd not win if the lira has weakened (which it will) - your sterling you just changed at 4.something/£ would be worth less for each £ you have exchanged :D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on September 16, 2015, 18:24:26 PM
Reg has appointed an economic trio to 'parallel run' the Turkish economy, rather than the conventional state apparatus of central bank and finance ministry.  The trio consists of a religious loon who sees nothing but secular plots to undermine the Turkish economy; a former newspaper economics columnist, know for being one of Reg's sternest supporters and - as we would expect - his 37 year old son in law. ;D ;D ;D I shouldn't laugh, it's far too serious for the Turkish people, but what else can you do?

I'd better get over to the TL/£ exchange rate competition and up, or rather down, my esimate for the end of the month.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 17, 2015, 15:42:44 PM
Only a couple of hours till the Fed announces their interest rate decision.  Could be a very big day for the lira tomorrow...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: thebillet on September 17, 2015, 21:47:29 PM
Given the news from UBT, on the other thread I think I might consider moving my decimal point one place to the right.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 17, 2015, 23:04:42 PM
To be honest Keith I'm not really that bothered. We got a great rate and won't be changing it back to sterling but spending it on holiday.

We've just been out for over three weeks and spent less than ever on food and drink.

If it's 5 or more when we go next we will just buy more for our next holiday.

 :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 18, 2015, 07:54:07 AM
Looks like the lira dodged a bullet yesterday, and markets know it. 

I suspect the unusually long bayram was thought up on the basis that the Fed may have increased rates and according to some commentators, could have sent the lira into free fall against the dollar - it'd given them some time (domestically) to try to prop it up.

Unless the AKP have something up there sleeves for over bayram, maybe a stable(ish) time for the lira over the next week or so...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 18, 2015, 07:57:41 AM
Stoop - You are buying a continually weakening currency in advance and are not bothered that it will probably be worth significantly less at the time you plan to use it - and you could have got more Lira for your money by simply not investing in it in advance?

Is that why you gave up the Financial Advisor job and went to work for Pickfords? :D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on September 18, 2015, 09:14:12 AM

  Ouch. !  That's a moving statement.     ;)  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: c1 on September 18, 2015, 13:24:14 PM
JohnF on the right track as U.S. Fed hold interest rates, for now, due I think to political pressure as it would destabilise world recovery. Pressure off BoE and Reg it won't last though reckon on another twelve months then up.
Title: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 18, 2015, 14:33:24 PM
No Keith,

We are buying at a time when we think it's a good deal. Neither you or I have any idea what the rate will be next June - when we go out again. It just might go the other way - who knows?

Bottom line is that we are happy getting 4.5 + at the moment and have spent on things we need for the house whilst the rate is so high.

Anyway - I don't think a few hundred quid exchanged now will cause us to lose any sleep - even if the rate does continue to rise.

As for changing jobs - I did that through ill health retirement not through choice       :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 18, 2015, 20:14:01 PM

We are buying at a time when we think it's a good deal. Neither you or I have any idea what the rate will be next June - when we go out again. It just might go the other way - who knows?


Yes I do get it that you thought that 4.5/£ was probably a better deal than you felt you could get next June so you invested now.

I think that is nonsense :D - but I further agree with you that the rate could go up or down, and that nobody knows for sure.

I reckon the rate in June will be better for those with pounds than the 4.5 you got. You think in all probability the exact opposite is likely. Fair enough, different views are good.

I have £30 to a charity of your choice if the rate in June next year is lower than 4.5/£ - I am that confident - are you £30 to charity confident that you got a good deal (i.e. if the rate next June will be higher than 4.5 you pay £30 to a charity of my choice)? :D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 19, 2015, 00:25:52 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zLfCnGVeL4


:D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: nichola on September 19, 2015, 09:53:35 AM
Thought this would be of interest... It's about Turkeys place at the G20 but illustrates how the weakening lira will impact on the economy. Tough talking from Basci too!

Erdem Basci, governor of Turkey’s Central Bank, said, “What we need most at this phase is a boost [of] confidence. G-20 will help in that.”

Turkey has delayed essential economic reforms, has not been able to cope with terror, has not achieved stable politics, has squandered ways of giving confidence to the markets and has sustained losses in national income. In short, it is teetering on uncertainty, hoping to salvage its economy by gaining the confidence of the world with this summit.

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/09/turkey-danger-of-loosing-its-place-g20-declining-income.html#ixzz3mAk83NBG
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 20, 2015, 01:26:02 AM
As a poor retired person I'll take you on for £20 Scunner.

Charity of winners choice.

However I never said I thought the lira would be stronger next June. I actually said I couldn't give a damn based on the fact it won't make that much difference to me.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 20, 2015, 09:20:55 AM
Deal? Someone else might want to take the other tenner off you?  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on September 20, 2015, 10:34:40 AM
I actually said I couldn't give a damn based on the fact it won't make that much difference to me.
You are right Stoops it is not - well at this stage anyway - about losing or gaining everything, it is about marginal loss or gain.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 20, 2015, 11:26:13 AM
Deal? Someone else might want to take the other tenner off you?    :)

Someone else? No it's only you I want to have this easy money earning game with Stoop - nobody will be taking any money off me :D

So yes, it's a deal. Let's call it 4.667 today - please confirm the date your holiday commences next year and we'll use the XE midday rate then.

Oh and I'm so convinced that a tightarse Yorkshireman "couldn't give a damn" if his hard earned several hundred quid loses value in less than a year - maybe being worth only £70 or less - that's so typically the Stoop I have known for over 10 years   ;)
Title: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 21, 2015, 09:58:08 AM
Not booked yet but 1st June looks good. Let's go for that.

If it goes to 5 we will be about £48 down. I won't lose any sleep - even being a tight Yorkshireman.

Anyway just found out my son won 10,000 ytl at poker the other week so I can always make him an offer
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 21, 2015, 09:59:30 AM
Anyway - just booked a month in Thailand. Baht is looking weak too
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on September 21, 2015, 11:04:23 AM
As a poor retired person, are you staying in a mud hut in Thailand,   For a month? LOL.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 21, 2015, 12:52:33 PM
No - we are hoping to negotiate a freebee from someone who is leaving the country for the month  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 21, 2015, 17:23:28 PM

If it goes to 5 we will be about £48 down.

If it hits 5 you will be £68 down as you will need to pay £20 to my charity choice  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 21, 2015, 19:39:12 PM
- yes but that will come our of my 'golf' fund Keith  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 21, 2015, 19:39:50 PM
or I could indeed by quids in and have an extra £20 for my charity  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 21, 2015, 19:46:31 PM
You have already accepted it will be 5 or more  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 21, 2015, 22:42:00 PM
No I have not. It could be 5 or more or 4 or less. If I knew the answer I would be a rich man.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 21, 2015, 23:27:16 PM
It amazes me you aren't already  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on September 22, 2015, 16:25:48 PM
And no change in interest rates today as Turkeys Central Bank left rates on hold for another month.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on September 24, 2015, 12:59:58 PM
USD hit a record level of 3.0742 to the lira earlier today before falling back to a bit over 3.065 currently.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 24, 2015, 17:55:58 PM
Aye, it's the GBP thats fell away against most major currencies recently, a paltry 4.64 to the lira just now.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on September 24, 2015, 18:03:18 PM
4.64, eh? And what did you say it would be at the end of the month?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 24, 2015, 18:11:40 PM
You got me there...      ;)

It's also a blatant lie that I've been bulk buying lira this week   :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 24, 2015, 19:37:28 PM
Is it June yet?  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 24, 2015, 19:52:31 PM
June?  If I had been buying lira over the past week or so, which of course I haven't, I'd be dumping the lot on Monday when the bayram ends and before the Turkish markets open - and paying for a couple of flights to Santander from EDI.   :)

By June next year the YTL may have had a zero added to it.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on September 24, 2015, 20:18:42 PM
As they say in  the Army, you cant beat Barrack room lawyers,?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 24, 2015, 20:39:08 PM
And your point is?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on September 25, 2015, 09:14:20 AM
As they say in  the Army, you cant beat Barrack room lawyers,?
They say lots of daft things in the Army.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on September 30, 2015, 11:40:45 AM
Basci has been making optimistic noises about recovery in the Turkish economy in the second half of 2015 with improvement in the current account - meaning Turkey has to dip less into its capital account to make up the shortfall. Nevertheless the CB pushed $1.1 billion into lira support in August which left $31b reserves. It will be interesting to see how much of this will be left after the September support has been added up.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on October 07, 2015, 09:08:37 AM
The Central Banks support of the lira seems to be working at the moment,with the pound now below the  4.50 lira mark.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: gillian handbury on October 07, 2015, 10:27:42 AM
Yesterday in Calis....4.40.. In Fethiye change shop 4.45... We got 4.53 in Sugar Bank.....
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on October 07, 2015, 10:51:50 AM
The Central Banks support of the lira seems to be working at the moment,with the pound now below the  4.50 lira mark.

I think the one to watch is the USD rate, it will have the biggest economic benefit if they can get it trading on a more stable basis.  Sitting about 2.93/4 just now which is a decent rise considering it was nearly 3.07 a week or so ago.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on October 11, 2015, 22:35:48 PM
Events over the weekend have hit the lira pretty hard - as soon as the Australian markets opened it went from 4.46 to 4.53 against the pound and from 2.91 to 2.95 against the dollar within a couple of hours.

How the European then subsequently the American markets react will be interesting.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on October 22, 2015, 15:29:37 PM
With the General Election just over 1 week away it was no suprise that the Turkish Central Bank kept Interest  Rates unchanged again today after its monthly meeting. The lira is now trading at 2.87 to the dollar and 4.42 to the pound.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 02, 2015, 06:30:49 AM
While the election result may not have been the best for the people of Turkey (in my opinion) it certainly helped out the lira - currently 4.29 to the pound (from 4.29) and strengthening even as I type this.

Back to under 4.00 by end of day?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on November 02, 2015, 06:37:42 AM
Under 4? I am not so sure, particularly when people remember that Reg wants, no demands, low interest rates. Now bring me the head of the Central Bank Governer.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 02, 2015, 09:13:14 AM

  Last week Reg suggested a new suspect be added to the list of culprits causing all the problems in Turkey.

  He said the worlds press complaints about the crackdown on the media in Turkey is being controlled by

  " A Supreme Mind ".  I think he'll find a few more as things worsen.!! I suspect Turkey will see an exodus

  of free thinking people.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 02, 2015, 17:39:41 PM
Exchange rate has settled down between 4.35 and 4.36. Now we just have to wait for Basci to be sacked and a couple of points to be knocked off interest and then we'll be heading back off towards 5 again.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on November 05, 2015, 05:22:37 AM
You could be right Colwyn, trading above 4.40 this morning on XE.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 05, 2015, 13:15:45 PM
The central bank voted to keep interest rates steady and the currency instantly fell. But that's the Bank of England and the currency is Pound Sterling which is why the Turkish Lira appears to have got stronger. If you look at TL:$ and TL:€ rates the lira is still gently falling.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 06, 2015, 15:11:42 PM
"The American economy added 271,000 jobs in October, the government reported Friday, a very strong showing that makes an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/f/federal_reserve_system/index.html?inline=nyt-org) much more likely when policy makers meet next month."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/business/economy/jobs-report-hiring-unemployment-october.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/business/economy/jobs-report-hiring-unemployment-october.html?_r=0)

If the US rate does rise this will put further pressure on the lira. The Central Bank's response will give a good indication of where the new AKP government is heading. TL has already fallen against the dollar by 2% just responding to the US news.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 09, 2015, 10:21:52 AM
The Fed (US central bank) starts a two day meeting tomorrow with the betting on it raising interest rates. This is likely to boost the dollar against international currencies (unless the smart money boys and girls have already anticipated this and discounted rates in advance). In the past Basci has said he will match US interest increases. Erdogan has said something equivalent to "Over my dead body!". Should be an interesting (sorry about pun) start to next week.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 09, 2015, 12:16:05 PM
Whoops! One source told me meeting was 10/11th but the Fed calendar says it is 15/16th.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on December 17, 2015, 16:39:33 PM
Shouldn't the lira have weakened? It's getting stronger ever since the rise in US interest rates
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 17, 2015, 16:54:10 PM
Yes, it is a bit of a puzzle. A couple of posts ago I mentioned the possibility that the 0.25% rise had been so well trailed, since October, that money markets had already taken this into account. But things are more complex than that. Stock exchanges in the US reacted positively at first but have now sunk down to significant losses. Euro markets have done reasonably well, the FTSE has done pretty well and the Istanbul market even better. So, some markets don't seem to have anticipated the rise in advance and the Turkish currency markets are actually moving the "wrong" way and a number of other Emerging Markets aren't hurting much. I'll look out to see whether any of the financial commentators comes up with a good analysis over the next day or so.

To show how things "should" work - the pound has lost 0.8% against the dollar today, and the euro ) 9%.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 17, 2015, 17:06:15 PM
and the euro ) 9%.
Correction: and the euro 0.9%
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 06, 2016, 09:46:36 AM
Dollar back over 3TL again.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on January 19, 2016, 14:35:57 PM
No change in Interest Rates, for the 11th month in a row, following the Central Bank meeting this afternoon.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on January 19, 2016, 14:50:33 PM
Unlike the $ to the TL FX rate, the Turkish Lira has continued to do well against the pound.  Less to do with a successful Turkish economy, and more to do with a troubled UK economy, which was not helped by it's Chancellor of the Exchequer talking down the pound last week or perhaps it was the week before.  Yes Bullingham's own lad Gideon went down with his usual case of BSE when things look gloomy, that's not mad cow disease but Blame Someone Else  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 19, 2016, 15:50:44 PM
Odd that UBT. According to The Story, Gordon Brown caused collapse in our economy all by himself and brought down the rest of the world with him. Osborne, on the other hand, has been blown off course by global events over which he had no control, could do nothing about and which no-one could predict.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on January 19, 2016, 16:46:41 PM


  Anyone seen today's  published Beckett report into why Labour were trounced at the last Election.??

  Interesting reading,  for some.!      ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on January 19, 2016, 19:06:49 PM
Haven't read Beckett. Anyway......

....amongst lefty and righty friends -  Labour lost the last election simply because Ed Milliband didn't look or come across like any sort of leader. Simply unelectable.

Perceived to be a Union puppet who also had an unfortunate face.  (being a Union placement also did for Callaghan but at least he he looked acceptable).

That's about it, really.

His brother, I'm sure, would have been a far more electable person.

But, hey. What do I know.

Every one of these politicians would tear mere mortals to shreds in a political argument.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on January 20, 2016, 00:15:39 AM
 Please shoot me, I agree with a Stuart T post.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on January 20, 2016, 08:10:31 AM


      BANG.!!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on January 20, 2016, 08:28:27 AM
By the way  the Lira is getting stronger.LoL
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on January 20, 2016, 08:36:45 AM


  But what about Efes.??
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on January 20, 2016, 12:22:00 PM
Try Efes extra very strong,
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 20, 2016, 12:34:20 PM
By the way  the Lira is getting stronger.LoL

Actually it isn't - the pound is getting weaker.

The lira has been steadily falling against the dollar and the euro for the past few weeks.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: 1calis on January 20, 2016, 19:50:25 PM
Pound dropped against dollar today.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: keng38 on February 23, 2016, 12:09:45 PM
Can anyone confirm what the rate is at the moment for us minions who  would change their money in the bank in person please?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: wickwilly on February 23, 2016, 14:10:37 PM
Seker bank was 4.13 this morning.
WW
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on February 23, 2016, 17:08:24 PM
The Calis Exchange shop was offering a poorer 4.01 on their board outside today.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on February 23, 2016, 17:16:42 PM
Ouch!!

That's brutal and maybe getting even worse.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on February 23, 2016, 17:33:08 PM
maybe getting even worse.

Who for?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on February 23, 2016, 17:58:53 PM
For me and anyone else exchanging pound notes for Turkish lira.

Efes is going to be champagne prices by September.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on February 24, 2016, 11:19:45 AM
Ah, right.

So if it heads north to five to the pound you'll be ecstatic then?

In my opinion there is no great advantage for the majority of members of this forum for the Turkish lira to either go into freefall or hit a serious low against the major currencies.  In fact, it's quite the opposite.

Ok, there are a few benefits to a weak lira - those with Sterling pensions get a bit more each month, the Efes will appear to be cheaper allowing for larger and more toxic hangovers and eating out, on the face of it, will be cheaper.  Unfortunately, due to the current political & security situation in Turkey a weak lira is not going to bring tourists to the country in their droves like previous years, so that benefit is out the window...

All of the above are short term benefits.

Inflation is already eroding the additional lira pensioners get - the next round of tax and utility increases could be heftier than the last. 

Fewer tourists means less profits to the small businesses who sell you that Efes and food, the majority of them paying their rent in USD, EUR or GBP - a weak lira means (in real terms) they pay more rent each month as they buy in and sell food and drink in lira. 

So, be careful what you wish for, that cheap Efes you desire in September may be there - unfortunately, when you go looking for "those little places we've used for years", finding them still open to sell you it may prove more difficult.

JF




Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on February 24, 2016, 11:25:42 AM
Never mind, John F, the suns still shining in Calis,
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on February 24, 2016, 11:29:05 AM
It's not in Istanbul, bit cloudy today according my colleague.  But in Dundee, gloriously sunny - although not quite "sitting outside" temperature yet  :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 24, 2016, 11:38:41 AM
Last June I took home 50TL that had cost me £12. There was much much merriment as its value faded to £11.01 over a few weeks. Now my 50TL is worth £12.25. Hooray I'm rich! Unfortunately I suppose Efes has been much more expensive in the meantime.

I recall on some lira thread we were discussing whether the £:TL rate was likely to go below 4 or above 5. Currently it is at 4.08 and just a gnat's wotsit away from going back to three point something.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on February 24, 2016, 16:19:17 PM
Interest Rates were left untouched again, following the Central Bank's monthly meeting yesterday.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on February 24, 2016, 16:51:37 PM
Last June I took home 50TL that had cost me £12. There was much much merriment as its value faded to £11.01 over a few weeks. Now my 50TL is worth £12.25. Hooray I'm rich!

Now, if you'd paid for that 50tl note in USD it's be a different story. 

At the time, it would have cost you $18.31 and now, if you changed it today, you'd get back $17 - which is not quite as bad as a few weeks ago when all you'd have got is $16 plus the odds.

Not so rosy and unfortunately its the USD that matters to Turkey. 

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: madmart on February 24, 2016, 20:01:20 PM
When we bought our place in 2010 the exchange rate was around 2.2 as it was the following May and a little bit better in September 2011. We've always worked on anything over 3 being a bonus.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on February 24, 2016, 20:05:25 PM
Unless you want to sell it to a local in lira and change the takings back into pounds, in which case anything over 3 is a disaster.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: madmart on February 25, 2016, 14:27:13 PM
Granted that would be an issue though as we bought for the long term and not for a quick buck it is not of an immediate concern. The way it is going at the moment break even or a small loss would seem most likely. However it is not for sale, therefore we'll just sit tight for now.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on February 25, 2016, 14:42:07 PM


   Down to  4.07 at the moment, will go below 4.00. ??
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 25, 2016, 14:45:42 PM
Yes. And it will all be the fault of those damned Euroseptics!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on February 25, 2016, 19:59:24 PM
I'm still doing the hokey - cokey.

In, out, in, out, - and I'm still undecided.

Strongly leaning towards out - mainly because it seems to me that's it only the big money people who are shouting for us to remain "in".

Even with Cameron's recent achievements (?) we haven't gained a great deal by remaining "in".

Euro legislature still trumps our legal system

The Boris effect has also influenced me.

If I understood more I may be able to put forward a more convincing argument.

I still think it's a cop out by the Government.

They know for more than I and yet throw it to the public in order to avoid responsibility.

It's becoming an X Factor "public vote" avoidance of making a decision for which they can be blamed.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Liz 101 on February 25, 2016, 22:55:22 PM


   Down to  4.07 at the moment, will go below 4.00. ??

Already at 4 today in Fethiye
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on February 26, 2016, 03:48:12 AM
Is it June yet Scunner ;-)

On a serious note - a weakening pound will be much better for those looking to sell their homes to Turkish buyers.

On our site last summer we noticed a vast increase in Turks looking to buy property. At 4.60 ytl to the £ it would mean a £30k property was well over priced in Ytl. Hopefully this might redress the balance a little.

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 26, 2016, 09:41:21 AM
it seems to me that's it only the big money people who are shouting for us to remain "in".
Hey, I didn't know I was a big money person! Perhaps there is something in the pipeline for me. Hope it gets through in time for me to take wheelbarrow-loads of £s over to Turkey to change into lira.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on February 26, 2016, 14:40:25 PM
Calis Beach money change 4.00 and the two money changes in town at the beginning of Passpatur are giving 4.04.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 26, 2016, 17:44:12 PM
a) Erdogan has returned from his South American "charm tour" where his security agents behaved as they would in Turkey and beat the XXXX living daylights out of protesters - that upset one or two of the more finicky locals. And today he has announced that he wants to see the rise of Islamic Banking in Turkey to cover 25% of the banking market.
(b) Today the lira lost value of up to 2% against the dollar, and even 1.25% against the pound.

I wonder if there is any connection between a) and b)?

[P.S. I think I can do a basic job of explaining Islamic Banking - that doesn't have unholy interest {i.e. "usury"} - in a few sentences, if anyone is interested.]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/turkey-erdogan-banking-idUKI7N16204Y
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: mercury on February 26, 2016, 18:00:36 PM
a) Erdogan has returned from his South American "charm tour" where his security agents behaved as they would in Turkey and beat the XXXX living daylights out of protesters - that upset one or two of the more finicky locals.           Hilarious laughed out loud at this comment
 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on February 26, 2016, 18:04:38 PM
With the exception of Bank Asya, I believe most of the other major "Islamic" lenders in Turkey are part owned by Middle Eastern countries.

Truth be told, the practice of Sukuk (Islamic lending) is just a pretty convoluted way round charging interest.  In simple terms - Wullie wants to buy a house, so a middleman buys it (Wullie moves in) and sells shares in it to "investors" who then receive "rental" at an appropriate level in relation to the value of the house from Wullie.  Once enough "rental" has been paid, Wullie buys the house from the shareholders at an agreed (usually nominal amount) price.

Turkey is getting heavily into Sukuk - one law firm in Istanbul is doing a lot of business involving this sector.  Big bucks involved.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: mercury on February 26, 2016, 18:05:04 PM
He has been spouting today about The interest rates again... He wants them down to the USA and European interest rates.. This will put an end to a lot of peoples dreams of living in Turkey.. There are still people there relying on their 10%...
Ooops. That should have read that Erdogan was today giving an impassioned speech on interest rates.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 26, 2016, 18:16:40 PM
Truth be told, the practice of Sukuk (Islamic lending) is just a pretty convoluted way round charging interest.
Quite so. It is one thing to do this for a single transaction. It is quite another to guarantee a 10.2% profit (not interest) per month on your Turkish bank account in advance of your deposit. But is is easily achieved by the miracle of creative accounting.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: nichola on February 26, 2016, 18:28:19 PM
Bit more detail here following up on the Reuters link Colwyn poster above

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Default.aspx?pageID=517&nID=95761&NewsCatID=344
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 26, 2016, 18:38:00 PM
Thanks Mercury and Nicola. Your input makes it clear that RTE is off on his mission against "the interest lobby" again. What are chances that TRY will be at record low against dollar tonight or Monday morning?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on February 26, 2016, 18:41:19 PM
I think the wee man needs a basic accounting or economics course.  Maybe a copy of Economics for Dummies Dictators should have been wrapped up for him to open this morning  ;)

He says: "As we have always mentioned, interest rates are 0.5 percent in the U.S., negative in Japan, and at 0.25, 0.5, 1 or 2 percent in Europe. What about us? We are around double digits."

Well hello... how many of the countries mentioned has double digit inflation?

Really, the mans a fool.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on February 26, 2016, 20:09:13 PM


  Plus, how many of those countries are budding dictatorship's .??  Apparently Gulen is to blame for the Tourism crisis.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 28, 2016, 13:25:25 PM
Prices from end November 2009 - just over six years ago. I wonder what they are now.

(http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a138/ColwynJones/Food7b_zpskb6y4qnn.jpg)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: nichola on February 28, 2016, 15:43:32 PM
Balık ekmek is now 8₺
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on February 28, 2016, 15:44:17 PM
How much is an Effes
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 04, 2016, 15:37:05 PM
The Lira has been doing well both in relation to the Pound (thanks to those Euroseptic twerps) but also against the Dollar - which had surprised me a little. But looking at the US financial press it seems there is transAtlantic concern about the falling Dollar. In February the $ hit a 15-month low against the Japanese Yen and performed badly against a basket of major international currencies. It seems the extraordinarily low price of oil, as well as general unhappiness about the US economy, is bringing down the mighty greenback. There are also fears that the Chinese Yuan might become a reserved currency and that this will undermine the prestige and power of the Dollar. This is one slice of good news for Turkish companies with Dollar debt.


[I'm not posting any links for this since there are lots under "falling dollar" in a search engine but I have found none that are both succinct and informative.]
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on March 07, 2016, 04:29:27 AM
The pound has indeed suffered due to the reality that we might actually leave the Euro dictatorship. I'm sure it will recover once the dust settles.

I can see a few discussions in the near future on our June vote  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 05, 2016, 17:02:26 PM
The uncertainty over a possible EU exit is possibly a good thing for anyone stuck with TL who wants shot of it.  The GBP/TL rate is currently sitting at 4.01tl to the pound, with the lira strengthening to 3.99tl at one point earlier today.

The lira's gains against the pound have not been reflected in either the USD or EUR rates which makes me think now (or in immediate future) is a good time to offload any lira.  I suspect that if the EU vote in the UK is to keep the status quo we'll see these gains wiped out and the lira heading back towards 4.50 (to the pound) or thereabouts.

Then again, I could be talking bollox (again).

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 05, 2016, 18:27:19 PM
I suspect that if the EU vote in the UK is to keep the status quo we'll see these gains wiped out and the lira heading back towards 4.50 (to the pound) or thereabouts.
It might be b.ll.x but if it isn't it will be too late for me anyway since my holiday in Turkey will be nearly over by then. Still, if there is a bounceback against the Euro as well that will help my September holiday in Portugal - the £ is rubbish for buying € at the moment. But suppose the vote goes the other way? Well, I guess British people won't be able to afford foreign holidays at all then.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: wickwilly on April 05, 2016, 19:40:29 PM
Or the cost of all the visas they might need too!!!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 05, 2016, 22:35:06 PM
Still, if there is a bounceback against the Euro as well that will help my September holiday in Portugal - the £ is rubbish for buying € at the moment

Thats the one I'm hoping for.  The lira rate isnt really affecting me right now - short trips to Istanbul where I don't have time for boozy lunches in Nevizade or late nights in Ortakoy mean my lira spend is negligible, in comparison to previous years!

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: fernando torres on April 06, 2016, 08:46:51 AM
In response to Keith's question regarding the price of an Efes, Denizati 9.5 TL, Lukka in Calis 10 TL and along the front in Calis between 9.5 and don't know how true it is but was told some are even charging 12 TL, god knows what it will be in Olu Deniz !!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on April 08, 2016, 19:57:45 PM
god knows what it will be in Olu Deniz !!

9Tl this evening for a large Effiz on Olu Deniz beachfront at The Kumsal Pide.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Sleuth on April 09, 2016, 07:27:32 AM
Olu Deniz wednesday   ....  Full english breakfast  ( slightly away from the front )  23  lira  !!!!!                               Glass of wine ( in small glass )    13 lira  !!!!
   
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Sleuth on April 09, 2016, 07:28:27 AM
We passed on both     ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: fernando torres on April 09, 2016, 08:25:29 AM
Just greed, and they wonder why people are choosing All Inclusive
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 20, 2016, 11:31:05 AM
Big day for the lira today with the announcement due shortly in respect of interest rates.  New governor of the TCB in place and no-one quite know where his affiliations lie, but I reckon we'll soon find out.



Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 20, 2016, 11:32:55 AM
Thanks for the reminder: I had forgotten.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 20, 2016, 12:47:33 PM
Well the new Governor has announced a 0.5% cut in interest rates. Since this is what the majority of market analysts had been predicting the announcement appears to have been greeted with approval and the lira has strengthened from 2.83 to 2.81 against the dollar. Not a huge jump but it will please Governor Murat Cetinkaya.

I have to say I have impressed by the financial reporting of papers like the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal - especially in contrast to the usual standard of the political reporting you get in our mainstream press. When Basci cut interest rates by 0.25% four weeks ago it was reported as a sort of goodwill gesture to the incoming Governor. If Basci, trusted by the markets, could make an economic justification for lowering the rates then the incoming bloke (unless he was simply an Erdogan stooge) had some leeway to make further, and perhaps greater, cuts without upsetting the traders. Yep, bang on! Good stuff! [At least, that's the way it seems now. It might look different in a few days].
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: teetee on April 20, 2016, 18:39:41 PM
Kumsal........always a great Pide
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 20, 2016, 18:44:56 PM
Teetee, I could do with some sort of explanation of this post.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: thinwhiteduke on April 21, 2016, 10:39:36 AM
Kumsal........always a great Pide
yep best place to go in Olu. Food and view are great and very reasonable!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: teetee on April 21, 2016, 15:15:12 PM
Colwyn to explain I was adding a comment to something Yabanci mentioned in an earlier post when he mentioned Kumsal Pide. It happens to be one of my favourite places for a relaxing lunch.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 21, 2016, 15:38:39 PM
Ah yes, I should have remembered CBF Rule #1: Sooner or later all threads must include discussion of the price of Efes.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 25, 2016, 09:25:38 AM
Well the new Governor has announced a 0.5% cut in interest rates. Since this is what the majority of market analysts had been predicting the announcement appears to have been greeted with approval and the lira has strengthened from 2.83 to 2.81 against the dollar. Not a huge jump but it will please Governor Murat Cetinkaya.

Didn't last long.  Weakened gradually over the week and sitting at 2.85 just now - similar story with sterling, strengthened to 4.03 but now slid back to 4.12.

I'm wondering if this has more to do with little reginalds bullish behaviour towards the EU and the "demand" for entry into Schengen.  Its been noticable in the past that when he's prominent in the news (for the wrong reasons) the lira takes a hit.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 04, 2016, 11:55:12 AM
...and sure enough, the uncertainty over the relationship between little reginald and Davutoğlu seems to have given the market serious jitters.  Rumours are suggesting that Davutoğlu may resign due to the erosion of his powers and a worsening relationship with the Prez.  Even against a weakening pound, the lira is sitting at 4.15 and at 2.87 to the USD.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 04, 2016, 16:52:11 PM
Not seen the lira bomb like this for a while, now down to 4.18 and 2.89.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 04, 2016, 18:08:47 PM
Any news about this afternoon's meeting? It is certainly being talked up in the media - RTE to let Davutoglu run country or he will resign versus Davutoglu to back new Presidential constitution or RTE calls AKP conference to replace him. I wonder if any chance of a disaffected wing of the AKP breaking away and withdrawing parliamentary support.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on May 04, 2016, 18:12:31 PM

  Theres an article in the HDN warning that bad loans and bankruptcies are sounding the alarm bells for Turkey's fragile economy.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 04, 2016, 19:27:55 PM
Any news about this afternoon's meeting?

Its over but no statement so far.  Now down to 4.20.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 04, 2016, 19:40:05 PM
My live currency feed is jumping all over the place in the last ten minutes. Dollar has been up to 2,97 and - for the lasy few seconds - back to 2.95. That's a drop for lira of about 3.5% today. Even the GBP is up over 3% at around 3.27.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 04, 2016, 20:07:15 PM
Davutoglu gone?

Reuters are reporting that the AKP will hold an emergency congress in the next few weeks to select a new leader and that Davutoglu will not be running
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on May 04, 2016, 22:42:58 PM


  Davutoglu is to hold a  "Crucial " press meeting tomorrow, the 5th. 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 04, 2016, 23:47:38 PM
Sounds like he's getting his jotters.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on May 05, 2016, 08:05:38 AM


  There's an interesting piece on the BBC News website about the troubles between the President and the PM.

   Not good news for Turkey.    :(
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 05, 2016, 09:43:45 AM
The word on the pavey is that his fecking son in law, Berat Albayrak, is a favourite to replace Davutoğlu.

Nepotism on the grandest scale.


JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on May 05, 2016, 21:50:20 PM


  I said a while back that the cabinet members would become obsolete and everything would be run from the Palace.

  Well I think it's under way. A dynasty is on the cards.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 06, 2016, 11:25:32 AM
A dynasty is on the cards.

Aye, and not the Joan Collins one either.

I'm hearing that the fallout, which has been rumbling along for some time, came to a head over the EU deal (and of course the power stripping) and that the final few laws that have to be passed to make it happen may now not go forward.  Even though EU insiders have said its a done deal, thats been on the basis they've been dealing with Davutoğlu...  and that appears to be an issue thats put little reginalds nose out of joint. 

At the end of the day, whoever ends up as PM has a short shelf life anyway - I mean, when the prez becomes the overall head of everything in Turkey what's the point in having a prime minister?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 06, 2016, 18:19:22 PM
Ah well, looks like little reginald has basically told the EU to feck off.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36229468

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 11, 2016, 11:30:13 AM
Nice to see the £ creeping up in advance of our holiday next month. Go sterling Go!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 11, 2016, 12:35:07 PM
Not just the pound Colwyn, the lira has been steadily weakening for the past week or so.  It's almost back to 3 to the USD and heading towards 3.4 to the EUR - pre Nov election rates.  As regards sterling, the pound has been losing ground to most major currencies recently - makes you wonder what the lira rate would be against a rising pound!

A lot to do with the political uncertainty I suspect.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 11, 2016, 12:38:42 PM
Not just the pound Colwyn
I know. It was a bit of a selfish post. I've only got £s to spend! [P.S. Plus the 50TL I have treasured since last year].
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 16, 2016, 12:29:24 PM
Aye well, your bullseye is now worth £11.60 at the current rate - by the time you get over it might be enough for a couple of beers, no kebab and certainly no taxi home  :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 16, 2016, 13:50:14 PM
That is presumably based on Greco-Turkish economics which says if you have half the number of tourists then you have to double the prices they pay so that you come out even in the end. A version of which is Erdonomics which states that when inflation is high you have to lower interest rates so people can borrow more to compensate.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 16, 2016, 13:58:25 PM
I'm proposing you as a board member of the TCB.  You'd be a hit with your grasp of Turkonomics  :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 18, 2016, 19:36:56 PM
makes you wonder what the lira rate would be against a rising pound!

I think my question has been answered.  The pound has recovered a bit against most major currencies and as a result its sitting at nearly 4.37tl to the pound this evening.

Political turmoil, uncertainty over the future of the HDP deputies and doubts over the independence of the TCB look like making it a bumpy road ahead, as if the past few years haven't been hard enough.

Good news for tourists I suppose, might encourage them to spend a bit more - although, having a passing knowledge of Turkonomics myself, I suspect that prices will rise due to lack of tourists and they'll have to spend more!

JF

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on May 19, 2016, 09:17:12 AM
Yes but look at the political turmoil ahead in UK according to the stay in the EU, and the  Brexit,?what they are telling us.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 19, 2016, 09:33:18 AM
Many have commented that the in/out situation in the UK is one of the reasons the pound has weakened over the past few months.  Six months ago a quid would have bought you €1.40 or thereabouts, today its just crept back to above €1.30.

My point was that a week or so ago the pound was weak and the lira was still losing ground - now that we're seeing a strengthening pound, the lira has weakened considerably against it.  I suspect the result of various exit polls, which show 55% want to remain in the EU, are playing a large part in the pounds revival.  If the vote next month is confirmed as staying in, then I suspect the the pound will take another jump - just in time for the start of the season   ;)

But hey ho, its the Turkish lira we're actually interested in so anything could happen over the next few months.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 19, 2016, 09:58:49 AM
But hey ho, its the Turkish lira we're actually interested in so anything could happen over the next few months.
Yes, so to take the confusion factor of a possible Brexit calamity out of the equation, we should - as usual - take currency guides from USD/TRY whic at the moment hovers just below 3 on 2.99.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 24, 2016, 09:54:08 AM
This morning the dollar was over 3 to TL and looking to go to a record figure. Then, in a couple of minutes, the lira recovered by 1% and the dollar is now at 2.98. I suspect the Central Bank has waded into the market with a fistful of dollars.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 24, 2016, 10:02:46 AM
I think you must be right.  It was nosediving against the GBP, USD & EUR first thing then got a bump about half eight or thereabouts.

JF


Edit: I think it may have been Merkels "concerns" being voiced, over the lifting of parliamentary immunity that was highlighted by the media last night, that caused the drop.  TCB will be raiding the piggy bank soon.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 24, 2016, 18:00:34 PM
Oh, there was a Monetary Committee meeting today. I missed that. The base rate remained the same but the overnight lending rate was reduced. Steady change in same direction as last three months. The markets seem to have been pleased with this.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on May 24, 2016, 18:15:22 PM
Oh, there was a Monetary Committee meeting today. I missed that.

Me too. I was deeply engrossed in The Jeremy Kyle Show. The DNA results were back and they proved that the baby she was having wasn't hers.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on May 25, 2016, 10:51:37 AM

We are buying at a time when we think it's a good deal. Neither you or I have any idea what the rate will be next June - when we go out again. It just might go the other way - who knows?


Yes I do get it that you thought that 4.5/£ was probably a better deal than you felt you could get next June so you invested now.

I think that is nonsense :D - but I further agree with you that the rate could go up or down, and that nobody knows for sure.

I reckon the rate in June will be better for those with pounds than the 4.5 you got. You think in all probability the exact opposite is likely. Fair enough, different views are good.

I have £30 to a charity of your choice if the rate in June next year is lower than 4.5/£ - I am that confident - are you £30 to charity confident that you got a good deal (i.e. if the rate next June will be higher than 4.5 you pay £30 to a charity of my choice)? :D

Not long now Scunner. 4.31 today. Not sure I'm gonna lose this now but if I do then I'll just buy more
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 25, 2016, 12:17:30 PM
You're probably safe Stoop but you might still jinx it; the lira has lost half a percent since you posted. Of course, if the Telegraph comes up with another opinion poll like the one the other day showing Brexit trailing by 13% then the pound will go soaring and mess up your bet.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on May 25, 2016, 15:33:59 PM
Well we got 4.17 today and 4.25 last week.

I'll take whatever happens tbh. A no lose bet as we can always top up if it goes beyond 4.50
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on May 25, 2016, 15:34:57 PM
Yes but that poll was fixed
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 26, 2016, 09:58:12 AM
The price of oil was below $30 a barrel in January. It has now gone up to $50. This might be expected to feed through to inflation in Turkey but it has been coming down steadily from 9.58% in January to 6.57% in April. Should that change, it will be instructive to see what the CB will do with interest rates.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 21, 2016, 12:53:25 PM
What a difference a week makes.  The markets certainly think its going to be a Remain vote this week and sterling has taken a bit of a boost as a result.

A week ago you'd get 4.14tl to your quid, today sitting at 4.27tl.

What'll it be on Friday...?

Looking good for your EUR's for September Colwyn   :)  back up to 1.30 against the pound.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jack13 on June 21, 2016, 13:10:41 PM
4.15 at calis exchange today.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 21, 2016, 13:28:45 PM
4.26 at Finansbank ten minutes ago.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 21, 2016, 14:24:00 PM
The markets certainly think its going to be a Remain vote this week and sterling has taken a bit of a boost as a result.
Somebody believes that the majority of voting Brits won't go crackers on Thursday and torpedo the UK economy. I do hope they are right. George Soros predicts the £ will lose 20% of value if the disaster of Brexit happens - and he's the chap that made billions out of Norman Lamont's bumbling incompetence in just a few hours some years ago. I wish I had as much confidence in the outcome as the markets seem to do.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 21, 2016, 14:35:29 PM
Bookies look like they're following the money markets, odds for a remain vote back to 1/4 or 5 on.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 21, 2016, 14:57:35 PM
As a younger man I worked in a number of bookies' offices. I have no great trust in the knowledgedge they have - only their ability to do sums
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on June 21, 2016, 15:08:31 PM
George Soros predicts the £ will lose 20% of value if the disaster of Brexit happens - and he's the chap that made billions out of Norman Lamont's bumbling incompetence in just a few hours some years ago.
Yes Soros the lover of the Euro, which he has always argued is the way the UK should go... so I do not think people need be by swayed by his overall judgement.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 21, 2016, 15:23:41 PM
As a younger man I worked in a number of bookies' offices. I have no great trust in the knowledgedge they have - only their ability to do sums

I didn't say they were correct in their view, just that they have taken their lead from the financial markets. Or maybe its the other way round?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 21, 2016, 15:24:20 PM
Still not got the hang of the Quote function then, UBT. I say nothing about your grasp of finance.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 21, 2016, 15:31:31 PM
I didn't say they were correct in their view, just that they have taken their lead from the financial markets. Or maybe its the other way round?
No, my view is that the odds are merely based on amounts of money at risk so that the bookmaker (nearly) always comes out on top. My guess is that a lot more money has been put down by Remain punters, so they won't get a lot back. Whether they are Remain voters we can't tell. Perhaps they are Leave voters thinking "Well at least if we lose the vote I'll have a few quid to console myself with the odd couple pints!". Bookies always hedge their bets; why not punters?



Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on June 21, 2016, 15:53:04 PM
Yes Colwyn im edging my bet a Pound each way.lol
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 21, 2016, 16:00:01 PM
You aren't worried about a draw then?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Ovacikpeedoff on June 21, 2016, 16:13:56 PM
We will be fine. If it all goes wrong and the economy goes into recession Boris will go on national TV and apologies. I am sure that will be great solace to those who have lost their jobs and their homes.

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: usedbustickets on June 21, 2016, 16:38:48 PM
Still not got the hang of the Quote function then, UBT. I say nothing about your grasp of finance.
Appears I have got the hang of it, cos I got your immediate attention and response!!

As to my grasp of finance, you are probably correct to say nothing, lest it exposes your own flawed analysis.

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 21, 2016, 07:35:36 AM
Bumpy ride ahead for the lira methinks - as Colwyn said on another thread its hitting all time lows against the USD dropping to 3.09 last night.  Seems to have recovered slightly, to 3.05, but if it carries on with the current trend it could make for a hard winter for many - oil & gas more expensive.

How the TCB deal with this will be interesting, they no longer have the pretty astute Mr Basci on board to fend off interference from the government.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 21, 2016, 08:56:30 AM
Istanbul Stock Exchange has dropped by 12% since the alleged coup.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 09, 2016, 11:07:53 AM
A quote from the Deputy Prime Minister, Nurettin Canikli, has pretty much confirmed what most thought - the TCB is now under control of the wee fella.

“We will cut the rates below 10 percent without creating pressure for the banking sector in line with President Erdoğan’s recommendations”

Not good for the economy when the TCB is doing the bidding of someone who ultimately wants zero percent interest rates...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on August 09, 2016, 19:14:29 PM
Now REg has made friends with Russia things will only get better.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 10, 2016, 09:53:26 AM
Not good for the economy when the TCB is doing the bidding of someone who ultimately wants zero percent interest rates...
I have a basic understanding how usury-free banking works, but not Islamic Central Banking in the absence of interest. I thought I might try to get the beginnings of an understanding of it. It is hard going but here is a relatively brief overview of the basic economic theory - not easy but it did give me some glimmer of understanding.
http://www.islamic-banking.com/iarticle_1.aspx
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 10, 2016, 10:22:43 AM
As I've mentioned before, Islamic banking is now big business (  :) ) in Turkey.  Most of the major law firms are well geared up now doing deals and helping investors get involved in projects that conform to the pretty strict rules associated with it.

One of the issues I see is that on one hand Turkey is touting itself in the international financial arenas for investment, but on the other hand some in government have this goal of reducing interest rates to zero thus making it potentially unattractive to either non-Islamic investors or those without the deep understanding of the Islamic banking system. 

Basci knew the score - he knew what was best for the Republic of Turkey in terms of the economy.  Basci is gone.  The TCB is now being effectively run from the wee mans front room with his pals doing exactly what he tells them to do.  What a way to run a country...

JF

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 10, 2016, 11:26:14 AM
Islamic Central Banks have a range of tools at their disposal to regulate the currency in the absence of interest rates. Here are some ("mudaraba" refers to the relationship between the provider of funds and the recipient of fuds):   


Fixing a minimum and/ or maximum ratio of profit for Islamic banks in their joint venture and Mudaraba activities.  These ratios may vary for different fields of activity.

Designation of various fields for investment and partnership within the framework of the approved economic policies, and the fixing of a minimum prospective rate of profit for the various investment and partnership projects. The minimum prospective rate of profit may vary with respect to different branches of activity.

Fixing a minimum and maximum margin of profit, as a proportion to the cost price of the goods transacted, for banks in installment and hire purchase transactions. [/size]Determination of types and the minimum and maximum accounts of commissions for banking services.[size=78%][/size][size=78%]
[/size]Determination of the types, amounts, minimum and maximum bonuses, and the establishment of guidelines for advertisements by banks.[size=78%][/size][size=78%]
[/size]Determination of the minimum and maximum ratio in joint venture, Mudaraba investment, hire purchase, installment transactions, buying or selling on credit, forward deals with respect to various fields of activity; and also fixing the maximum facility that can be granted to each customer.[size=78%]
[/size]So far I have heard nothing about which of these regulatory tools Turkey Central Bank would use. Erdogan just seems to want to lower interest rates without proposing an alternative. I don't think Islamic Central Banking is a problem in itself, many countries have it, but not having a plan for an alternative to interest seems to spell trouble.[size=78%]http://www.islamibankbd.com/abtIBBL/cis_central_banking_in_islamic_framework.php (http://www.islamibankbd.com/abtIBBL/cis_central_banking_in_islamic_framework.php)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 24, 2016, 10:16:31 AM
Interest rates cut again.

This is what the international credit rating agencies, as published by HDN (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-central-bank-cuts-rates-for-sixth-straight-month-amid-worries.aspx?pageID=238&nID=103158&NewsCatID=346), think:

Credit agency Fitch lowered its outlook on Turkey to negative from stable last week following the July 15 failed coup attempt, while Moody’s said on July 18 it was putting its Turkey rating under review for a possible downgrade to junk status.

Interestingly, The Daily Sabah (http://www.dailysabah.com/economy/2016/08/23/central-bank-cuts-upper-band-by-25-base-points-as-expected) made no mention of any negative thoughts in their reporting, simply confirming who is in charge at the TCB:

The CBRT has responded to the government's repeated calls for cheap credit. In late liquidity window interest rates – between 4 p.m. (1300 GMT) and 5 p.m. (1400 GMT) – the borrowing rate was kept flat, and the lending rate was reduced from 10.25 percent to 10 percent.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on August 24, 2016, 17:12:26 PM
Well, what seems to have happened is that the lira has turned lower against the pound as expected after prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover Candlestick pattern, dropping to a two-week low.  But you knew that anyway, didn't you?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 24, 2016, 17:20:37 PM
But you knew that anyway, didn't you?

Of course I did (after five secs with Mr Google)  :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 04, 2016, 16:15:41 PM
Today the £ has fallen to a 31 year low against the $. Those charming Brexit people told me this definitely wouldn't happen and anyone who said it would was a member of Project Fear.: the naughty little Brexitliars! The only "good" news is that the TL has done even worse so you'll get more lira to the pound. Not doing me much good at the moment since I am in Euroland.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on October 04, 2016, 22:43:33 PM
Today the £ has fallen to a 31 year low against the $. Those charming Brexit people told me this definitely wouldn't happen and anyone who said it would was a member of Project Fear.: the naughty little Brexitliars! The only "good" news is that the TL has done even worse so you'll get more lira to the pound. Not doing me much good at the moment since I am in Euroland.

I don't remember anyone saying the pound wouldn't drop. Anyway it's a small price to pay to get out of the hell hole of the EU. My stock market linked investments seem to be doing ok though.

There was far more project fear from the remainers that just hasn't happened.

Portugal seems to be doing quite well this year. Busiest I've seen it for many a year.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 05, 2016, 17:51:51 PM
Portugal seems to be doing quite well this year. Busiest I've seen it for many a year.
There were certainly lots of people walking the Estoril-Cascais promenade this afternoon celebrating Republic Day.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 03, 2016, 10:47:57 AM
That's the lira taking a bit of a pumping this week against sterling, certainly not helped by the surge this morning after the Article 50 decision.  Started at 3.77TL to the pound on Monday and now 3.86TL to the pound just now.  Seems relatively stable against the USD for the past week, been hovering around the 3.11/12 mark - still not good though. 

I wonder how long this resurgence in sterling will last, time to hit the doviz and get a wee bargain for a while maybe?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on November 03, 2016, 11:32:28 AM
 

 time to hit the doviz and get a wee bargain for a while maybe?





Got 3.80 at Seker Bank this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 03, 2016, 11:35:48 AM
Finans buy (GBP) rate for internet banking currently 3.85TL.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 10, 2016, 14:31:33 PM
I have taken my eye off this - what's happening to the TL today/this week? It is taking a hammering against $, € and £ and presumably other currencies in which I am not much interested.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 10, 2016, 14:39:43 PM
Hit 4.05 to the quid and 3.24 to a buck a wee while ago, but more importantly for me right now is the fact the GBP hit 1.14 against the euro.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on November 10, 2016, 15:26:11 PM
Will this hold out until I get back Sat night Sunday morning
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 10, 2016, 15:59:32 PM
I'm sure JohnF will have a word with The Man if you ask nicely.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 11, 2016, 10:32:11 AM
Had a quick word, he said "how about 4.14?" 

Seriously though, its dropping like a stone.  At this rate (3.27 to the USD), THY will be asking Biggles to come out retirement...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on November 13, 2016, 18:22:37 PM
Ok..I need to change this money.where and what is the best rate...I,'ve obviously missed the higher rate. When do they decide what the rate will be?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on November 13, 2016, 18:35:14 PM
When do they decide what the rate will be?

As soon as you decide to change it.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 13, 2016, 19:35:00 PM


   Garanti are showing 4.11.     Pop down to the banks early and check the rates in two or three banks that

   are near to each other.?  Pick the best.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on November 14, 2016, 16:41:34 PM
Got into fethiye they were offering 4.5. I went to kuwait bank and got 4.8 and somehow a new bank account...
Got to say they were faster than a speeding bullet and I walked out of there with my new visa debit card..unlike the 3 months we waited at deniz bank...all in all a succesful mission..thanks for the help guys x
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 14, 2016, 16:44:26 PM
4.05 and 4.08 perhaps. Otherwise you'll start a stampede.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 15, 2016, 14:10:09 PM
This morning The Times published a "secret Gov memo" that the Gov didn't know what it was doing over Brexit and the £ immediately fell by 1% against other currencies. The Gov replied that it didn't know that it didn't know what it was doing so the £ clawed back to only 2/3rds of a percent down. Can any tell Bernie what will happen tomorrow?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on November 15, 2016, 18:03:47 PM
Bernie is on a new mission..1. To leave Inspectors office next week with as much of my wealth intact as I entered with, thanks to residency and health insurance costs . 2.To find a nice new black soba, a la profile picture with remainder of wealth. I shall wait to change my remaining £40 on the day it hits 5...now now,dont scoff, you were all saying it wouldn't go back up to 4 a short while back...
watch this space : :) ;D ;D ;D :-*
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 15, 2016, 18:15:06 PM

   Price Waterhouse has issued a statement admitting that one of it's staff, without authorisation, and without any

   contact with Government Ministers or Downing Street "leaked" a "secret memo" which were merely their own

   view and obviously designed to discredit the Governments Brexit position.A sad individual that doesn't believe

   in Democracy. I hope tomorrow that sad individual is jobless.The market will be fine Bernie.Spend,spend,spend.

                                                                                                                                                            ;)  ;)  ;)  ;)     
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Highlander on November 15, 2016, 18:54:32 PM
Apart from the Price Waterman bit (?) I agree entirely.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 15, 2016, 19:05:03 PM
What Price Waterman bit? Are you slipping even more confusion into this?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on November 15, 2016, 19:09:28 PM
Reports stating that it was an employee of Deloitte who leaked the memo.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on November 15, 2016, 19:11:15 PM
I think they're part of the same group though......
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on November 15, 2016, 19:20:02 PM
Apart from the Price Waterman bit (?) I agree entirely.


Is he Dennis's brother
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Highlander on November 15, 2016, 21:03:08 PM
What Price Waterman bit? Are you slipping even more confusion into this?

That;s why I put the question mark - didn't know for sure if they were one in the same.

All reports I read and heard quoted Deloitte.  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on November 15, 2016, 21:14:31 PM
Apart from the Price Waterman bit (?) I agree entirely.

Price WaterHOUSE   ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Highlander on November 15, 2016, 21:29:55 PM
That's the fella  :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 15, 2016, 23:13:10 PM


   There was talk on this evening news programme's about Price WATERHOUSE losing a very lucrative contract

   through this controversy. When they are in a position to effect the markets they are expected to act responsibly.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 16, 2016, 09:05:46 AM
All reports I read and heard quoted Deloitte.   :)
Blimey, PWC and Deloittes? It could be the strangest government-toppling coup ever. Two of the Big Four accounting firms conspiring in revolution!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 16, 2016, 11:45:54 AM
Don't think too many external influences are required as far as lira concerned.  Still in free fall and TCB making no effort to prop it up.

JF


 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 16, 2016, 14:52:53 PM



     4.14  Garanti Bank.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on November 16, 2016, 15:20:12 PM
Hey Kev, when you posted 4,11 for Garanti, the bank in fethiye was only offering 4,7. Hence me joining kuvait Turkey 4.8. Took the advice on here looked around, and Deniz and the one over the road were 4.5.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 16, 2016, 15:29:11 PM
You are missing out that .0 again Bernie!

Although the £ is doing well the benchmark for currencies is the $. On that measure the lira is 7% down since the start of November. Perhaps it will bottom-out soon; if it doesn't Bernie's 5TL:£ may actually be on the cards in the next 6 months.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on November 16, 2016, 15:53:50 PM
I,ll hang on to my £40 then  ;D ;D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 16, 2016, 17:31:04 PM
Yeah, stick that forty quid in yer knickers for a rainy day.  All the market forecasts are that the lira still has a bit to go, certainly against the USD, before any "bottoming out" is likely to be seen.

As regards Sterling, I think a lot will depend on the up coming Supreme Court decision which could push it substantially either way against most currencies, although maybe not the lira or the Chinese Yuan  :)  In the interim, I suspect we might see a slowing down of the slide against Sterling but with the lira, who knows!  It could hit five to the pound by the end of the month if it does carry on the way its going.

That was all just a roundabout way of saying I haven't really got a clue  :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 16, 2016, 17:33:40 PM
Yeah, stick that forty quid in yer knickers for a rainy day.
Bernie forgot to pack her knickers.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on November 16, 2016, 17:34:29 PM
I heard she left them on the plane
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on November 16, 2016, 17:43:56 PM
She's a carpenter?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 16, 2016, 17:48:02 PM
I heard she left them on the plane

So that why the polis and jandarma were out in force at Antalya the other day then, chemical warfare suits and three dead sniffer dogs I heard.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on November 16, 2016, 18:18:19 PM
That was rather rude Mr F..
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 16, 2016, 18:25:47 PM
Only slightly  ;)

Anyway, you started it.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Lotty on November 16, 2016, 22:25:58 PM
Children! Be nice.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 16, 2016, 22:34:16 PM
Sorry miss...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on November 17, 2016, 00:22:30 AM
I'm Australian as well......

Moi aussi.

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 17, 2016, 15:03:13 PM


  Garanti Bank  4.17           
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on November 17, 2016, 17:13:47 PM
Kev,when it says Garanti rate,where do you get that rate? The bank isn't offering it,..any ideas?tar

Lotty itsim  :-\ ;D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 17, 2016, 19:11:25 PM

    Bernie

    I'm quoting the Banks up to the minute rate off their Website. The local branches rate will always be slightly lower.


                                 http://www.garanti.com.tr/en/index.page


     Scroll down slightly, rates on right hand side.        :)


      As I type this it is  4.1836. 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on November 17, 2016, 20:00:43 PM
4.19..cum on 5  ;D when does this benefit thing kick off again. : :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 17, 2016, 20:27:47 PM
4.19..cum on 5

Careful what you wish for...

Seriously, a weak lira does no-one any good.  Most of the shops, restaurants and bars have to pay their leases in dollars or euros, but sell their goods and services in lira.  Only thing they can do is put prices up.

Oil and gas is paid for in dollars, so the cost of fuel and utilities is going to skyrocket if the lira keeps falling against the dollar.

Ultimately, its the man/woman in the street who suffers when stuff like this happens, you can be sure the wee fella ain't turning the heating down a few notches or sticking an extra jumper on in his 6,742 room gaff in Ankara.

So far the central bank hasn't made any efforts to prop up the lira (not that they're short of the funds to do it) so maybe they're going to see how far it'll go.  Who knows.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 18, 2016, 09:13:08 AM
Dollar now at 3.4 so lira is down 10% since the start of November. Mind you, the pound managed to do that in one day.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: trainer on November 18, 2016, 10:36:42 AM
XE currency exchange live rate as of 10:35  4.22049TRY
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 20, 2016, 16:41:59 PM
So far the central bank hasn't made any efforts to prop up the lira (not that they're short of the funds to do it) so maybe they're going to see how far it'll go. 

Looks like 3.4 to the USD was as far they were comfortable with.  A meeting on Friday between the state bean counters and the TCB led to it being reported that the TCB will "take necessary measures to support financial stability".  Feck knows what that means, but its about time they did something else it could be four to the dollar by the end of the month.

JF

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 21, 2016, 11:43:57 AM
Another important meeting tomorrow to discuss lira - some saying the government might allow the TCB to increase interest rates.  The wee fella will be spitting feathers if that happens!

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 22, 2016, 12:38:07 PM
Meeting cancelled.  Everything in the garden is rosy according  (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-government-cancels-meeting-to-discuss-lira-weakness-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=106405&NewsCatID=344)to the PM:

Speaking to reporters on Nov. 22 at Istanbul’s Atatürk Airport, Yıldırım said “there is nothing to worry about in the economy,” despite recent turbulence.

Oh, that's fine then.  Nothing to worry about.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 22, 2016, 12:52:59 PM
"Everything will be alright in the end. If it isn't alright then it isn't the end". Just a few people making a fuss about nothing. Probably Scottish - like ruddy Storm Angus that battered us on our Exeter get-away over the last few days. 3.363 TL to the $  is perfectly alright. Isn't it?


Oops, 3.367
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 22, 2016, 13:07:55 PM
Aye, it wouldn't surprise me if the wee fella phoned them up last night and cancelled the meeting - I mean, raising interest rates? 

I read elsewhere that they're blaming the weakness of the lira against the dollar on Trump now, but what about sterling (was 4.21 this morning, down from 4.15 on Monday morning), who they gonna blame for that?

JF

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on November 22, 2016, 13:34:38 PM
Got 4 .16 at Seker Bank this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 23, 2016, 09:21:32 AM


   Yesterdays meeting was cancelled "by order".  It will take place today, chaired by guess who.??         ;)


                                                                                                                                                                   HDN

                                                                                                                                                             
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 23, 2016, 15:12:29 PM
RTE has gone on TV to say that Turkey's interest rates are too high, and the CB is independent but ... the $/TL rate shot to 3.415 within a couple of minutes but has clawed back a little since.


http://uk.reuters.com/article/turkey-economy-erdogan-idUKI7N1D3004
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 23, 2016, 21:29:25 PM
Yesterdays meeting was cancelled "by order".  It will take place today, chaired by guess who.??

Aye, and that went well.  Lira continues to weaken against GBP/USD/EUR.

Mibbe he'll tell the "independent" central bank to drop the rates and then we'll really see the lira plunge.

Hope they didn't burn al those million notes...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 24, 2016, 11:31:18 AM
Turkey's Central Bank has shrugged off Erdogan's attempts at intervention and made small interest rate rises. Overnight borrowing rate was unchanged at 7.25% but overnight lending went up be 0.25% to 8.5% and one week repro up 0.5% to 8%. The dollar/lira rate immediately improved to 3.37 but since sunk back to 3.39.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 24, 2016, 12:16:20 PM
Turkey's Central Bank has shrugged off Erdogan's attempts at intervention and made small interest rate rises.

Someone will be preparing their cells in Sivilri prison...

Suspect the freezing of the accession process to the EU by the European Parliament hasn't helped.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 24, 2016, 13:08:14 PM
freezing of the accession process to the EU by the European Parliament
So unfair after Barmy Boris saying in September that he supported Turkey's accession to the EU when he was in discussion with the W***erer in Ankara. (You know, that Boris chap who warned that Turkey was imminently about to join the EU and 70 million Turks would be heading for the UK unless we voted Brexit and, now we are going to leave, is advising people as to who should join!).


Back on topic ... the CB's move seems to be failing already. The dollar hit 3.44 this afternoon - another record low for the lira.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on November 24, 2016, 13:53:14 PM
Yes Colwyn but you see Boris knows we are leaving the EU so he won't be that bothered if they join.

He probably also realises it will never happen. They won't join in his lifetime.

The pound appears to be moving back against most currencies. I think only the Bitcoin seems to be holding up well and that's probably due to American buyers post Election.

I think we were buying lira at around this level just before the referendum.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 24, 2016, 14:16:42 PM
Quote from speech last night by the wee fella:

“I have nothing against the independence of the Central Bank, but I cannot allow my people’s will and rights to be taken away with high interest rates,”

Kinda sums his view up.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 24, 2016, 14:17:39 PM
I think we were buying lira at around this level just before the referendum.
Yep, the pound and the lira are equally weak.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on November 24, 2016, 16:18:55 PM
Quote from speech last night by the wee fella:

“I have nothing against the independence of the Central Bank, but I cannot allow my people’s will and rights to be taken away with high interest rates,”

Kinda sums his view up.

JF
Well the Bankers have taken no notice, and raised the interest rate 5o points.

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 24, 2016, 18:30:29 PM
But it didn't work. TL is finishing the day at 1.5% down against the $. I suppose RTE will use this as evidence that raising interest rates doesn't work - quite apart from interest being usury and so is against Islam.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 25, 2016, 10:25:29 AM
I'm not sure if this is in the right section, maybe I should be posting this in the jokes section...

That paragon of truth and honest reporting, The Daily Sabah, puts a whole different spin on the wee fella's meeting on Tuesday and has come up with ten outcomes.

The first is:

The economy is strong and solid: The Turkish economy is strong, resilient and solid. The depreciation of the TL against the dollar is not due to the dynamics in Turkey but rather to global factors. There is no currency risk in Turkey.

Thirty seconds with XE confirmed that not only is the lira losing ground (rapidly) against ALL major currencies, it's also doing pretty badly against the Indian Rupee, the Albanian Lek and even the Chinese Yuan, which incidentally is reckoned to be in as bad a place as the lira.

On the plus side, it does seem to be holding its own against the Colombian Peso.

Full article here. (http://www.dailysabah.com/economy/2016/11/25/erdogan-chairs-5-hour-economy-meeting-urging-to-take-measures)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on December 01, 2016, 13:36:36 PM



      4.40 TL                                    Garantee Bank
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 01, 2016, 14:58:23 PM
And the dollar has pinged 3.5. Seems just a few days ago we speculating whether 3.4 would be the sticking point. Oh, it was just a few days ago.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on December 02, 2016, 11:06:00 AM



           4. 47 TL               :o
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 02, 2016, 11:22:17 AM
Yeah, and it wont stop there.

I think the news yesterday that the AKP and the MHP are now BFFs is giving everyone the jitters - new constitution will ultimately sail through and give the wee fella the supreme level of power he's been gagging for.

If the old saying about someone turning in their grave was true, we could expect to see Ataturk surfacing somewhere in the southern hemisphere shortly.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 02, 2016, 11:48:26 AM
The Gov will soon have plenty of money to back up the lira. It hopes to raise $10 billion from sale of 600 companies it seized post-coup. Production of shoeboxes must be in overdrive.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 02, 2016, 12:24:29 PM
He just cant help himself, can he?

Last proclamation from supreme leader in waiting:

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called on Turkish citizens on Dec. 2 to convert their foreign exchange into gold or the Turkish Lira, adding that there was no option other than cutting interest rates to spur growth.

Following his remarks in Ankara, the lira saw fresh lows against the U.S. dollar.

“Those who keep foreign currency under their mattress should come and turn them into lira or gold,” Erdoğan said in a speech to mark the opening of an automotive showroom complex.

“Such moves will hit some people’s game. Do not worry. We will destroy this game together. We saw such things in 2007 and 2008. I then said the problems would not affect Turkey. I am now saying the same thing. The problems will not even touch us,” he added.

Lira versus USD, 3.55 and against the quid, 4.48.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on December 02, 2016, 14:14:12 PM
I got 4.36 today.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 02, 2016, 14:22:46 PM
You got robbed.  Finans buy rate for sterling was 4.44 ten mins ago.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on December 02, 2016, 14:25:49 PM
I got 4.36 today.

It is higher than that in the U.K. Bernie,  Where did you get your money exchanged?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Highlander on December 02, 2016, 14:28:15 PM
I got 4.36 today.

It is higher than that in the U.K. Bernie,  Where did you get your money exchanged?

The Change Shop   ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 02, 2016, 14:32:17 PM
It is higher than that in the U.K. Bernie

Where?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 02, 2016, 14:37:51 PM
I got 4.36 today.

By the way, I was only joking about getting robbed.  The Finans rate is for customers only and given the fluctuations today, 4.36 to 4.38 would be about right at a doviz or change shop.  Maybe a touch low against a bank but as the lira was at 4.40 for a bit today, not to be sneezed at.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 02, 2016, 14:42:15 PM
Bernie was very pleased to have got a great rate until you lot strode in and /pis/ rained on her parade. Shame on you!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 02, 2016, 14:43:29 PM
Ok dad.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stopfordian on December 02, 2016, 16:20:39 PM

 XE currently 4.45 > £.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 02, 2016, 16:23:47 PM
Now 4.46  :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on December 02, 2016, 19:52:36 PM
At Kuwait bank where I hold an account. ..these rates that are advertised never seem to be available on the ground, and I'm tired of walking around looking. As for weeing on my parade all you arse holes did that on November 20th and not one of you wished me happy birthday. Well except lotty n somebody else a couple days before..
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kayakebab on December 02, 2016, 19:59:04 PM
Got 4.44 in Seker today.

Sent from my LG-H815 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 02, 2016, 20:21:40 PM
not one of you wished me happy birthday.
You didn't get my card then?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on December 02, 2016, 20:50:53 PM
not one of you wished me happy birthday. Well except lotty n somebody else a couple days before..

How old were you Bernie? Because right there you sound around primary school age
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on December 02, 2016, 21:59:27 PM


  I tried to wish you Happy 39th Bernie but you were out chasing the rainbow.          39. !!     Now that's a Soba thought.

  Hope you got stamped.     :)  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on December 02, 2016, 22:40:40 PM
Bernie,  I wished you a Happy Birthday on Facebook as did 28 people.  Including members from here, so sometimes people will wish you a Happy Birthday on F.B and will not bother to do it again on CBF.   
I know Lottie is not on F.B.

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on December 03, 2016, 00:27:39 AM



       Sod Farce Book.  It's  CBF wot counts.            ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 03, 2016, 12:26:49 PM
As for weeing on my parade all you arse holes did that on November 20th and not one of you wished me happy birthday.
Don't fret about it Bernie. I have on here since 2003 and no-one has ever wished me "Happy Birthday".
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on December 03, 2016, 12:34:56 PM
Happy Birthday Colwyn, merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you too! X
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 03, 2016, 12:40:27 PM
Got a nice fire going there, Bernie.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Highlander on December 03, 2016, 13:48:46 PM
all you arse holes...............

Does that include all of the members who have offered you free advice over a long period and on a variety of topics >:(
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 03, 2016, 14:01:04 PM
Stop being so precious...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on December 03, 2016, 17:58:07 PM
Highlander...really???
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Highlander on December 03, 2016, 23:45:48 PM
Bernie

Well yes to be honest.

Unless I misread your post, you called people who had genuinely tried to help you over a long period and on a variety of issues, arse holes.

If I have misread your intentions then please let the Forum know.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 03, 2016, 23:50:13 PM
If any of us who she called arseholes decide to be offended,  don't worry,  we'll let you know so you can be offended on our behalf.

FFS.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Highlander on December 04, 2016, 00:04:13 AM
JF - I was expressing an opinion on Bernie's post but you seem to imply that isn't allowed on this Forum
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on December 04, 2016, 06:14:41 AM
My comment was aimed at the people I have craic with on here. The fact that you want to want to turn it into  something more sinister says more about you than it does about me Highlander. You seem to pinpoint me a lot in your private messages too. I thought you were being helpful but I can see now you are just being malicious. I,m  sorry your comment didn't have the desired affects with lots of likes and people jumping on the bandwagon to berate me for my tongue in cheek comment aimed at people that I banter  with. Like the boys said if they had a problem with it they would let me know...and besides It had the desired affect and I got my birthday wishes albeit late.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 04, 2016, 09:17:51 AM
I can see now you are just being malicious.
I have never met Highlander but have some knowledge of him from his posts and actions on here and am fairly confident in saying I don't think he is capable of being malicious. You wrote a "jokey quip"; H read a "foul insult". Just a breakdown in the meaning and intention of words. Don't let's escalate it, eh?

[P.S. I have had a nod from "certain persons" that I might be in line for the Nobel Peace Prize shortlist this year if I make the right moves and noises].
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on December 04, 2016, 09:49:34 AM



      Now you're taking the Peace Colwyn.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on December 04, 2016, 09:50:03 AM
Bernie,  I have had the pleasure of meeting Highlander and can tell you he is a very nice and very caring person and not at all malicious. 
I think members being called a-holes may have upset some people who did not take your remarks as a joke.
As Colwyn says, do not let this thing escalate.  It is coming up to Christmas, so a time for goodwill to all men (and women).
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on December 04, 2016, 12:24:36 PM
Well sincere apologies to those that didn't. As it was kind of mid banter with the people involved, it seems a little bit obvious that it was not aimed at the cbf people in general.
I didn't think it was necessary to bring it up and make a thing out of it. I don't think I have ever made any comment to anyone on here before  that would think I viewed them in that way..this was a joke.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: lissa on December 04, 2016, 15:20:34 PM
Not a very amusing joke.........seems a bit of an extreme way to get a birthday wish. Just saying.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 04, 2016, 15:43:53 PM
Can the lira recover a bit next week do you think? No, nor me.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stopfordian on December 04, 2016, 15:50:44 PM

 Not quite freefall at the moment, but the parachute may be handy..  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: BernieTeyze on December 04, 2016, 16:32:15 PM
10..



Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on December 04, 2016, 16:33:18 PM

    At a rally today, appealing to citizens to once again empty their mattresses, that nice Mr Erdogen said everything will be fine.     :)

    So there you have it.              I wonder if the disposable footwear containers will be emptied.??       ???



Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 04, 2016, 17:17:44 PM
I hear Tayyip, Jose and Christiano will be meeting next summer
on the beautiful holiday island of Caixa de Sapatos.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on December 04, 2016, 18:53:40 PM



        Imrali Island might be a more apt destination.!!           ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 04, 2016, 19:28:38 PM
More appropriate for one of them, but less lucrative for all three..
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on December 05, 2016, 07:49:47 AM
I hear Tayyip, Jose and Christiano will be meeting next summer
on the beautiful holiday island of Caixa de Sapatos.
Why/ Do they use lira there?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on December 05, 2016, 08:32:32 AM
In them maybe.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 05, 2016, 09:11:44 AM
Why/ Do they use lira there?
I believe they take any currency.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on December 07, 2016, 08:03:33 AM
Big lira fight back since yesterday
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on December 07, 2016, 10:10:11 AM
Must be all those loyal Erdogan followers changing their dollars into lira.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogans-call-on-citizens-to-sell-dollars-prompts-crazy-campaigns-across-turkey-.aspx?PageID=238&NID=106920&NewsCatID=344


 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on December 07, 2016, 10:34:05 AM
Big lira fight back since yesterday

There must have been a hell of a lot of $ under the bed ;-)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 07, 2016, 10:59:34 AM
So what is happening to all those $, € and £ saving accounts. Are banks being leant upon to convert them into TL?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on December 07, 2016, 12:53:17 PM
And what happens when the TL falls against the $ and his subjects realise how much money they have lost?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on December 07, 2016, 12:55:24 PM
He'll just tell 'em that 5h1t 'appens.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on December 07, 2016, 13:01:48 PM
If they are daft enough to do it because he asked, they'll be daft enough to forgive him
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 07, 2016, 13:12:00 PM
In twenty years of visiting Turkey it has never crossed my mind that Turks might be daft about money. But Erdogan left the door open: he called on patriots to convert foreign currency into lira or gold. I seem to remember that only a year or so ago Erdogan was complaining about gold hoarding slowing the economy. Can anyone recall this more clearly?

Ah yes, here it is:
http://www.dailysabah.com/finance/2014/12/28/turkey-getting-gold-out-from-under-turkish-mattresses (http://www.dailysabah.com/finance/2014/12/28/turkey-getting-gold-out-from-under-turkish-mattresses)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 07, 2016, 13:59:01 PM
The weak lira is causing problems for companies repaying debt in dollars. In turn this is leading to a rise in bad debts for Turkish banks and that, in turn, is giving them problems in making loans to business that RTE insists must be done. What to do? Simple, just change the rules on how much bad debt provision banks have to make - halve it for small and medium-sized enterprises. Then invest this "extra" cash into Turkish companies.

Anyone see banking failures down this road?


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-06/souring-loans-strain-turkish-banks-pressed-by-erdogan-to-lend (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-06/souring-loans-strain-turkish-banks-pressed-by-erdogan-to-lend)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 07, 2016, 15:51:20 PM
Lots been going on past few days both politically and in the markets - personally, been way more interested in how the EUR/GBP situation is than the lira and getting sorted for our Winter sojourn to south west Spain.  So much to do, so little time...   :)

Anyway, it looks like the government have gone into overdrive in an attempt to shore up the lira.  They've been "persuading" large corporations to convert cash reserves held in foreign currencies to lira and make announcements that future deals (seven figure and up) will only be made in lira.  At least one government department bought over a QUARTER OF A BILLION DOLLARS worth of lira this week.  Yep,  $261m changed into lira.

If you add in the pious ones who doggedly believe everything the wee fella says and who have been raiding their mattresses and piggy banks to buy lira then it's hardly any surprise that its improved against most major currencies.

As per usual, he's even managed to make out that this isn't Turkey's fault, oh no sir, it's that big bad boy called Soros who is manipulating the Forex markets to stage an economic coup.  Well, the Daily Sabah certainly believed him and have stated in print that the funds controlled by George Soros are behind the weakening lira.  No mention of the Turkish banking system being downgraded by Fitch Rating from stable to negative for 2017, the difficult relationship with the EU or any of the other domestic factors that have led to wariness about the lira by investors. Its all a western conspiracy you know...!

I'd be surprised if this isn't a temporary blip in the fall of the lira (actually I wont, as nothing surprises me about the Turkish economy any more!) and in a few weeks, maybe even days, it starts the slide once again.

Most of the above is in the HDN and SABAH.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on December 08, 2016, 14:44:55 PM
It's losing ground against the pound today. 4.38 ATM.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 09, 2016, 11:53:40 AM
Well, it looks like days rather than weeks.  Lira steadily losing ground to both GBP & USD despite even more national organisations and institutions selling off their foreign currency reserves. 

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on December 09, 2016, 12:15:47 PM
Lira steadily losing ground to both GBP & USD despite even more national organisations and institutions selling off their foreign currency reserves. 

JF

As well as Reg changing up all his Shoeboxes into Lira, allegedly.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/president-erdogan-has-converted-all-his-currency-into-lira-spokesperson.aspx?PageID=238&NID=107061&NewsCatID=346
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 09, 2016, 12:55:41 PM
Aye, the wee fella changed a couple of hundred thousand dollars, allegedly.  Doesn't even come under the heading of loose change for him I suppose.

Rather than changing foreign currency to lira, I've heard more recently about folks getting their money OUT of Turkey - and I can't say I blame them. 

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 13, 2016, 12:26:19 PM
Well done to the wee fella.  All those folks who changed their dollars, sterling and euros into lira have now just lost money. 

Dollar back up to 3.48 (high of 3.52) today and sterling up to 4.43.

Never mind, at least they enjoyed free ayran and kebabs and some even scored a free headstone.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on December 13, 2016, 12:52:43 PM
Well done to the wee fella.  All those folks who changed their dollars, sterling and euros into lira have now just lost money. 

Dollar back up to 3.48 (high of 3.52) today and sterling up to 3.43.

Never mind, at least they enjoyed free ayran and kebabs and some even scored a free headstone.

JF

It was always going to be a short term fix.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stopfordian on December 13, 2016, 13:01:03 PM

 I wonder how many actually fell for it..
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: jackstee on December 13, 2016, 14:33:15 PM
Think you mean 4.43
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 13, 2016, 14:50:08 PM
Yes, you're right. Typo.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 14, 2016, 15:29:22 PM
Economic news announced today is that the Turkish economy actually declined in the third quarter of 2016 (first time since 2007) and direct foreign investment in first 7 months of the year fell by 68%. Following this bad news rose by 0.85% against $. The reason for this is ............. a complete mystery to me.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stopfordian on December 14, 2016, 16:08:57 PM

 Maybe because the $ dropped today?. The federal reserve is issuing a policy statement later today re, interest rates.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 14, 2016, 16:29:51 PM
That may well be it. When I looked earlier the $ was up against more currencies than it was down but that has now reversed. However, $ has dropped more against ₺ than any other currency. If Fed does increase interest rates then we might expect $ to rise again.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stopfordian on December 14, 2016, 17:29:32 PM

 Colwyn, where did you get your tl sign. I like that.  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on December 14, 2016, 17:35:55 PM
Here ... 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 14, 2016, 17:50:52 PM

 Colwyn, where did you get your tl sign. I like that.   :)
Word/Insert/Symbols/More Symbols/Currency - about 20-25 places below Basic Latin on the list.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stopfordian on December 15, 2016, 09:02:34 AM
Here ... 

 Haha, cheers KKOB, will send it back when I've finished with it..
 Thanks Colwyn, don't use my laptop much and not got word on iPad, but nice symbol and info as to where it is.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 15, 2016, 12:12:34 PM
                             
                            ₺
                       ₺
                 ₺
            ₺
      ₺

Yep, still going up.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on December 15, 2016, 16:42:08 PM
                             
                            ₺
                       ₺
                 ₺
            ₺
      ₺

Yep, still going up.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on December 15, 2016, 16:57:16 PM
I found this one going dead cheap. Inflation I guess.  ;)

(https://image.freepik.com/free-icon/turkey-lira-currency-symbol_318-49444.jpg)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on December 15, 2016, 17:24:52 PM
Thanks for the additional information davybill
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on December 15, 2016, 17:34:03 PM
Thanks for the additional information davybill
Your welcome,
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on December 20, 2016, 12:06:48 PM
No change in Interest Rates this month from the T.C.B.


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-central-bank-keeps-rates-unchanged-in-unexpected-move.aspx?pageID=238&nID=107540&NewsCatID=344
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 03, 2017, 15:39:15 PM
TL has started first US business day of 2017 by boinging 3.6 to $. No great surprise I suppose; except for the general unpredictability of currency.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 09, 2017, 09:15:12 AM
It wasn't that long ago we were wondering if 3.5 to $ might be a temporary ceiling for the ₺. This morning it touched 3.7. Even the £ is rising against ₺ - the only major world currency against which it is doing well.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on January 09, 2017, 09:19:13 AM
It wasn't that long ago we were wondering if 3.5 to $ might be a temporary ceiling for the ₺. This morning it touched 3.7.

Highest I've got for today on XE is 4.51. Will it get to 5?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on January 09, 2017, 17:41:36 PM
It wasn't that long ago we were wondering if 3.5 to $ might be a temporary ceiling for the ₺. This morning it touched 3.7. Even the £ is rising against ₺ - the only major world currency against which it is doing well.
That's good keep it going.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 10, 2017, 12:32:37 PM
Why on earth would you want to "keep it going"?

A lira in freefall does no-one any good, unless of course you're an ex-pat living off a sterling/euro/dollar pension who has no regard for how this will affect Turkey as a whole.

Getting ominously close to 3.80 against the USD today - that will be a very serious milestone.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 10, 2017, 15:06:00 PM
John, would you like to explain why you think 3.80 would be such a significant landmark?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on January 10, 2017, 16:08:14 PM
Why on earth would you want to "keep it going"?

A lira in freefall does no-one any good, unless of course you're an ex-pat living off a sterling/euro/dollar pension who has no regard for how this will affect Turkey as a whole.

Getting ominously close to 3.80 against the USD today - that will be a very serious milestone.

JF
Its lovely to wind you up John,as you have when you said folks living over here were nuts, or don't give a s---.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on January 10, 2017, 17:04:44 PM
Why on earth would you want to "keep it going"?

A lira in freefall does no-one any good, unless of course you're an ex-pat living off a sterling/euro/dollar pension who has no regard for how this will affect Turkey as a whole.

Getting ominously close to 3.80 against the USD today - that will be a very serious milestone.

JF

Well one reason is that it might just attract more holidaymakers but apart from that there is only the cheaper exports that it helps.

It doesn't help the man on the street as it will fuel inflation even further. It doesn't help those wanting to sell to Turkish buyers either. They will not pay over inflated prices.

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 10, 2017, 18:06:58 PM
Why on earth would you want to "keep it going"?

A lira in freefall does no-one any good, unless of course you're an ex-pat living off a sterling/euro/dollar pension who has no regard for how this will affect Turkey as a whole.

Getting ominously close to 3.80 against the USD today - that will be a very serious milestone.

JF
Its lovely to wind you up John,as you have when you said folks living over here were nuts, or don't give a s---.

You'll have to do a lot more to wind me up, in fact I doubt you could - you can't even manage to get yer wee out of context quote right.  I actually said:

 "Does kinda make me question you folks who are moving to Turkey full time just now - are you naive, or do you just not give a sh1t?"

A statement I stand by and going by the massive drop in European buyers in Turkey over the past twelve months it looks like I'm not the only one with that opinion.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 10, 2017, 18:19:39 PM
John, would you like to explain why you think 3.80 would be such a significant landmark?

I should have said another serious milestone - this is an all time low and despite the TCB doing their best today it's still sitting at just under 3.78.

Stoop - you know as well as I do that Turkonomics will kick in and it won't be vastly cheaper for tourists.  Poor exchange rate...  bump up the prices.  In many cases they have to, most commercial rental agreements are in dollars or euros not lira.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Kevin Sowten on January 11, 2017, 06:29:13 AM
We've lived here for just over 2 years and the £ to TL rate was 3.5 on arrival.
Hence we have had a 30% increase in the value of our UK pensions in that time.
I have not noticed a significant increase in prices in that time (apart from alcohol tax !)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 11, 2017, 09:10:28 AM
Inflation in Turkey was 7.7% in 2015 and 9.65% in 2016. I am surprised you haven't noticed it. Meanwhile, the dollar has smashed through 3.8 to dollar and is now around 3.86. The lira is on the run and there are two weeks before CB Monetary Policy meeting. 4₺ = 1$ by the end of the week?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 11, 2017, 11:03:17 AM
Kevin - you probably haven't noticed prices creeping up, but many Turks living on 1200-1500tl a month have done.  Rents, utilities, SGK, basic food stuffs etc.

I'm as guilty of not really noticing either, flying visits to Istanbul don't really give me much insight as to local prices - apart from the alcohol!

The biggest danger, in my opinion, is inflation - Turkey has a bit of a history there. My other half was working in Istanbul during the mid nineties when if you got paid in lira you needed a wheelbarrow to pick up your wages.  I remember when I first came here inflation was sixty odd percent.

The AKP built on work done previously to stabilise the economy when they got power in 2002 and to a certain extent since then things have been relatively stable.  Unfortunately, it looks like the wheels are getting a bit wobbly on this financial journey...

This article on bloomberg makes interesting reading:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-10/why-the-lira-s-in-trouble-2017-s-worst-performer-in-charts

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Saga Louts on January 11, 2017, 11:06:53 AM
Should we not rename this thread as the to is weaker and weaker
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on January 11, 2017, 11:16:46 AM
John, would you like to explain why you think 3.80 would be such a significant landmark?

I should have said another serious milestone - this is an all time low and despite the TCB doing their best today it's still sitting at just under 3.78.

Stoop - you know as well as I do that Turkonomics will kick in and it won't be vastly cheaper for tourists.  Poor exchange rate...  bump up the prices.  In many cases they have to, most commercial rental agreements are in dollars or euros not lira.

JF

Most tourists don't see it that way though. They look at the £1 v's the TL and base their decisions on that alone.

They are also getting less against the Euro so some see it as a cheap holiday.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 11, 2017, 11:31:53 AM
It would be good if they did, turkey could really do with a tourism boost this year.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on January 11, 2017, 12:20:13 PM
It would be good if they did, turkey could really do with a tourism boost this year.

JF

Yes I agree but the terrorism is the thing in the way.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on January 11, 2017, 14:05:54 PM










         Plus the wee fella Stoop, but his strength has been in keeping the average Turk feeling better off financially.  Now however----------.?








Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on January 11, 2017, 14:18:46 PM




           TL 4.72.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 11, 2017, 15:27:04 PM
Dollar now well through 3.9 and on the way to make my guess of 4 before the end of the week. An important decision coming up for Turkey: CB to follow usual financial procedure and raise interest rates; or follow RTE and make an Islamist stand against interest rates (and usury) - which will be wrapped up as a "pro-growth" policy. Turkey's corporations have big dollar debts that are getting more difficult to cover everyday. They can get deeper into trouble.

Does it matter to the Turk on the Bursa dolmus? I will do when the company he/she works for declares 15% redundancy because of "the economic situation".
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 11, 2017, 17:29:30 PM
In certain sectors in Istanbul this is already happening - legal and financial sectors been shedding staff for a couple of months now.  Marketing budgets slashed and bean counters now being listened to...

One company I work for has put an embargo on new hires and is now touting for (unpaid) interns to pick up the slack.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: YILDIRIM on January 13, 2017, 15:14:10 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170113/104edd634bada44547dfe18bc8ad3617.png) firsth message on this subject 29-10-2014 and these day 1 pound = 3.559 lira and now 1 pound = 4.61 lira (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170113/b038cf440a6b71bfc276077e6006bc62.png)  somebody change this subject  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 13, 2017, 17:48:56 PM
somebody change this subject   :)

Why change the subject? The topic is discussing the lira versus other currencies?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: YILDIRIM on January 13, 2017, 19:55:28 PM
somebody change this subject     :)

Why change the subject? The topic is discussing the lira versus other currencies?

JF

Please read and try understand it 'Lira getting stronger - why?' Its not versus to other currency or anything .

Some body must be change it " poud getting stronger - why? Look graphics . Please be gentlemen .this subject look like a aimed to make fun ...

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: sadler on January 13, 2017, 20:03:01 PM
Certainly not aimed to make fun, Yildirim, when this post first appeared, the lire was getting stronger. No one is happy at the fate of the lire. It is just so sad and we would all, hopefully, wish the lire would strengthen.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 13, 2017, 21:08:41 PM
Yildirim - I think you've misunderstood the topic and it's title.  It actually tracks the lira from it strengthening to its current position over almost three years later.  While you might argue that overall it's not a laughing matter, this is CBF and some posts show it at its irreverent best.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 14, 2017, 09:39:36 AM
I think the title has become ironik. Besides which the pound is not getting stronger.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on January 17, 2017, 12:42:56 PM
An important decision coming up for Turkey: CB to follow usual financial procedure and raise interest rates; or follow RTE and make an Islamist stand against interest rates



Turkish PM Yildirim is saying that the Central Bank will not hesitate to do what is necessary to stop the sharp falls in the Lira.So will the CB raise Interest Rates next Wednesday??

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/central-bank-will-not-hesitate-to-do-what-is-necessary-turkish-pm.aspx?pageID=238&nID=108634&NewsCatID=346
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 17, 2017, 15:07:57 PM
Wow, that is putting a heavy emphasis on the meeting. I shall be following with (increased?) interest nest Tuesday.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 19, 2017, 15:10:36 PM
With the lira having lost 7% against the dollar since the start of this year people have been busy addressing the problem. First CBRT has gone for currency swaps in a move that Erdogan sycophant Daily Sabah seems to think is a cunning plan (I assume they don't watch Blackadder) and later Erdogan aide Cemil Ertem promised that the interest rate option is "on the table" for next week's Monetary Committee meeting.

Today the lira responded by dropping another 1% against the dollar.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on January 23, 2017, 11:34:55 AM
According to a panel of economists a quarter of one percent interest rate rise is on the cards at the TCB meeting tomorrow. If that happens Reg will not be a happy bunny.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 23, 2017, 14:36:17 PM
Some economists are more bullish. Of 18 that Reuters polled 3 didn't expect movement, but 15 did of whom 9 thought it would be +0.5%. Now that will make RTE irritated. Finance institution UBS reckons that it will take +2.0% to stabilize the economy. I suspect that would cause another RTE hissy fit and another bout of allegations of financiers being "economic terrorists".


https://financialtribune.com/articles/world-economy/58006/turkey-cb-facing-interest-rate-dilemma
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 23, 2017, 14:52:28 PM
+2.0% to stabilize the economy currency.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 24, 2017, 11:49:05 AM
Central Bank didn't go for +2.0% nor +0.5% nor +0.25% for the main policy rate. It opted for 0.0%. The imprint of Erdogan's jackboots all over the decision. Not likely to make foreign investors keen on Turkey.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on January 24, 2017, 11:53:58 AM
Well borrowers will be happy.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 24, 2017, 12:05:10 PM
Central Bank didn't go for +2.0% nor +0.5% nor +0.25% for the main policy rate. It opted for 0.0%. The imprint of Erdogan's jackboots all over the decision. Not likely to make foreign investors keen on Turkey.

...and as a result, the lira immediately lost six kurus against the dollar - GBP rate went from 4.65 to 4.72.

I don't think the markets have much faith in the lira at all, and today the TCB missed an opportunity to stabilise, or maybe even strengthen, the lira.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on January 25, 2017, 09:41:23 AM
Now 4.80 to the £
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: MrT on January 25, 2017, 14:14:25 PM
Not a good day for the lira just hit  4.82 to the £
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Daffodil on January 25, 2017, 15:31:05 PM
Five TL to the pound now!!!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 25, 2017, 15:46:32 PM
Where you seeing that?  Topped out at 4.84 today.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Daffodil on January 25, 2017, 15:50:09 PM
Sorry, just amazed how things are going. It is £1.03 for five TL so I was just shocked.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 25, 2017, 15:53:53 PM
Its ok, truth be told I was half expecting it get closer to five than it has today.

Maybe its about time someone updated the Efes Price Index... 15tl for a 50cl by start of season?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 25, 2017, 16:08:46 PM
Sorry, just amazed how things are going. It is £1.03 for five TL so I was just shocked.
It may just be thruppence to you but to currency wonks such matters are of vital importance.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: MrT on January 25, 2017, 16:25:27 PM
Its ok, truth be told I was half expecting it get closer to five than it has today.

Maybe its about time someone updated the Efes Price Index... 15tl for a 50cl by start of season?

JF

I'm pretty sure that will happen the Efes price fixing cartel always seem to keep beer at similar to prices to the UK, apart from the pub at the bottom of my road who manages to sell pints for £1.80
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: madmart on January 25, 2017, 18:09:04 PM
Efes in my local Spoons is £2.20. Much prefer Doom Bar or Abbot in there though!!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 25, 2017, 18:23:45 PM
My local for the past month or is €1.50 for a 50cl of Estrella, the equivalent to 6tl.  There is simply no comparison with the additive infested product named Efes.


(https://s29.postimg.org/vv7auz20z/IMG_20161226_WA0000.jpg) (https://postimg.org/image/vv7auz20z/)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on January 26, 2017, 09:26:39 AM
Nudging 4.90 TL to the pound this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 26, 2017, 10:56:44 AM
Seems to be recovering - the way it was going earlier on this morning five looked a sure bet by COB.  Lets hope the wee fella keeps his mouth shut tomorrow, he often says something incredibly stupid on a Friday and give the markets serious jitters.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on January 27, 2017, 08:53:56 AM
So what will come first, 5/£ or 4/$
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 27, 2017, 08:56:02 AM
£ on 4.88 and $ on 3.89. Which one will break .00 first? KKOB will be taking bets ... but I doubt he will be paying out.


Oh, Scunner had the same thought.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on January 27, 2017, 10:30:35 AM
KKOB will be taking bets ... but I doubt he will be paying out.


Don't drag me into this. I'm quite happy with the exchange rate here.

I'm getting 6 to the £1. Pig's trotters, that is.

  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on January 27, 2017, 10:40:06 AM
xe.com are showing the £/TL rate as 4.868 at 10.30 27th Jan.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 27, 2017, 11:05:48 AM
Looking unlikely today, the biggest losses seem to happen in the morning.  But, you never know with the lira.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 27, 2017, 12:16:02 PM
Seems to be recovering - the way it was going earlier on this morning five looked a sure bet by COB.  Lets hope the wee fella keeps his mouth shut tomorrow, he often says something incredibly stupid on a Friday and give the markets serious jitters.

JF
Reuters report in the last hour: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan declared his opposition to the central bank's interest rate corridor policy in comments reported on Friday and reaffirmed his view that interest rates cause inflation, "not tomatoes, not pepper" ... Raising interest rates influences the exchange rate and inflation in a negative way,

http://www.metro.us/news/turkey-s-erdogan-weighs-in-against-central-bank-rates-policy/wrlqaA---xFXKEcKLOOtBBkJInuBj8g/ (http://www.metro.us/news/turkey-s-erdogan-weighs-in-against-central-bank-rates-policy/wrlqaA---xFXKEcKLOOtBBkJInuBj8g/)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: MrT on January 27, 2017, 13:39:04 PM
Tempted to get some holiday money out early I can get 4.69 to the £ at a local Cash Generator.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: MrT on January 27, 2017, 13:58:25 PM
My local for the past month or is €1.50 for a 50cl of Estrella, the equivalent to 6tl.  There is simply no comparison with the additive infested product named Efes.


(https://s29.postimg.org/vv7auz20z/IMG_20161226_WA0000.jpg) (https://postimg.org/image/vv7auz20z/)

JF

I was in Spain a few months ago at a music festival and the drinks were very cheap, no surprise the beer in bars can be  €1.50  when you can get 12 cans of San Miguel on offer in the supermarket for €5 , and unbranded beer was as low as 25 cents per can.  "Estrella is a bit rich tasting for me"
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 27, 2017, 14:01:39 PM
Tempted to get some holiday money out early I can get 4.69 to the £ at a local Cash Generator.

Finansbank giving 4.85tl to the quid right now.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 28, 2017, 09:24:58 AM
The financial institution Fitch has joined S&P and Moody's in dropping its sovereign borrower rates for Turkey to "Junk" status. Financial Times says: 'The ratings blow means Turkey’s domestic banks will now face higher funding costs to access central bank loans at a time when growth has fallen to its lowest since 2009 and investors have dumped the currency.'  Exactly the sort of thing RTE expects of "economic terrorists".


https://www.ft.com/content/feb883bd-577f-31c6-b977-1c8082eccbad
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 28, 2017, 12:31:20 PM
Monday morning will be the best time for any "five & four" watchers...

JF

Title: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on January 31, 2017, 08:32:31 AM
Junk status but the strongest fight back in ages. I'll never understand it all...
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on January 31, 2017, 10:13:03 AM


    The shoe box shuffle.??
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: patrice on February 06, 2017, 15:14:27 PM
4 .57 today is the TL recovering ?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on February 06, 2017, 15:45:20 PM
You could say its showing signs of improvement, but not sure if its on the path to recovery as yet.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 06, 2017, 16:39:01 PM
It is not possible to know for certain what is going on inside the Central Bank but there is some speculation that it is making access to funds more expensive for commercial banks without actually changing the main headline rate. This chokes off the money supply without actually disobeying "The Tall One". Unfortunately it will have the same result of increasing borrowing costs for companies wanting to invest - which is the opposite of what RTE wants. Will they get away with this ingenious trick? Is it more than a short-term fix? Tune into the soap opera again tomorrow!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on February 06, 2017, 17:59:20 PM
Its not speculation, they started it in middle of January, if memory serves me correctly.  There's been a couple of mentions of this in the media, selling to banks at 10% instead of 8%.  I'll try and post a couple of links tomorrow.

JF

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on February 07, 2017, 07:29:06 AM
Yes the Lira doing better than its done for a while, considering all the problems they have had
with the coup and bombs in Istanbul.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: patrice on February 07, 2017, 08:26:37 AM
4.58 tl to the pound today
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: jackstee on February 07, 2017, 09:18:45 AM
4.5 yesterday at Dikmens
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on February 17, 2017, 11:32:48 AM
Been a good few weeks for the lira, strengthened quite a bit against both the dollar and the pound.  Sitting at 4.56 to the quid, up from 4.89 four weeks ago.

Are we seeing an upturn in confidence regarding the lira, or is this a false dawn where it'll all come tumbling down on the 17th April?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 01, 2017, 15:39:07 PM
February has been a good month for the Lira. It improved against the dollar from 3.8 at the start to 3.6 towards the end of the month. This follows an extraordinarily bad start to the year. So it is not yet clear whether this a sign of a better climate for the lira or merely a correction to the wild fall of the first week in January
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 03, 2017, 16:50:52 PM
Nothing like a jump in the inflation rate to bring it all tumbling down again... 4.55 against the pound from 4.44 and 3.78 against the dollar from 3.58.

The inflation rate hit 10.13% in February, exceeding even independent forecasters predictions (9.8%), and is now making the forecast for March (10.34) look pretty conservative.  This the highest its been since 2012. 

Lets see what rabbit the government pull out of a hat to slow things down before 16th April.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 13, 2017, 09:59:16 AM
Those of us who have been following the story of Erdogan v. Basci/Çetinkaya for many years will by now be well-prepared for the coming Trump v. Yellen story. A President determined to boost economic growth at all costs; a central bank head concerned about a over-heated economy based on growth of consumer demand leading to inflation. The confrontation centering on interest rates: President wanting them low; head of CB saying they must rise. Sound familiar? But surely a US President won't be as aggressively headstrong, willful and vindictive as Erdogan? Oh, it's Trump isn't it.


https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/12/business/trump-fed-interest-rate.html?emc=edit_th_20170313&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=48388843
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: jackstee on March 13, 2017, 13:49:51 PM
OK
A big question
Do we recon the TL will take a big dive during or straight after the referendum
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 13, 2017, 14:05:45 PM
To give people a better chance of making a guess can you tell us what the result of the referendum will be, and how close?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: jackstee on March 14, 2017, 08:05:49 AM
I don't really think that will matter. Just thinking it may drop as a gut reaction.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 14, 2017, 08:19:24 AM
Ok, crystal ball time   :)   if the Yes side win by a substantial majority then I suspect we'll see the lira strengthen, maybe not by much and chances are it'll be a temporary rise.

If the No camp win, then I suspect the lira will fall simply because all manners of hell will break out in Ankara and who knows what the ramifications of a No vote will be.

Interesting article in the Al Monitor a few days ago suggesting that if it looks like a No vote, then the the referendum may be cancelled/postponed:

While the fateful date of April 16 — the day the constitutional amendments that could give Erdogan extraordinary executive powers and transform him into the "sultan president,” as many observers and his critics allege — approaches, the possibility of rejection by popular vote surprisingly increases.

This by itself is a real matter of concern for Erdogan. He has proved to be a master of winning elections over two decades, and nobody could imagine that he would gamble the biggest prize of his long and successful political career. Every precautionary measure to secure a “yes” vote on April 16 has been taken.

Turkey is moving to the polls under unprecedented waves of crackdown that saw more than 110,000 people purged, sacked or detained, with around 44,000 put behind bars, including co-chairs of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), and many prominent journalists and opinion makers in the country. Any semblance of dissent against Erdogan is under threat of being severely punished. He characterizes anybody who announces or may think of casting a “no” vote as a villain, traitor and terrorist. A state of emergency is in force and will remain in place on election day.

Full article: here (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/03/turkey-referendum-may-be-postponed.html)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 14, 2017, 10:12:05 AM
As economists say ... On the one hand markets like stability so after a clear RTE win the lira could rise. On the other hand a RTE victory would encourage him to interfere more with monetary policy which the markets don't like so the lira could fall. This is why the politician's prayer is "Please oh please send me a one-armed economist".
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on March 14, 2017, 12:58:57 PM
You will have a job to find one thats  Harmless?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 16, 2017, 11:26:37 AM
Another good day for the lira despite the Fed increasing rates - I think a lot of folks thought it'd take a hit if the US rates were increased but looks not to be the case.  TCB held their rate to 8% today which looks like having been a good move, not that the wee fella would let them raise the interest rate anyway...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on June 22, 2017, 09:52:19 AM
The confrontation centering on interest rates: President wanting them low; head of CB saying they must rise.

Looks like the President might win this confrontation.


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-pm-warns-banks-to-cut-interest-rates-or-govt-will-take-its-own-measures.aspx?pageID=238&nID=114620&NewsCatID=344



Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 22, 2017, 10:32:39 AM
“Our bankers should not take this as a threat." No, they'll meet lots of interesting lawyers, judges, academics, journalists and others once they are banged-up.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 05, 2017, 15:04:03 PM
Yesterday the Central Bank announced the good news that inflation has fallen to 10.9%. Today the lira has lost 1% in value. Woz goin' on over there?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on July 05, 2017, 15:47:45 PM
Tomatoes.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tomatoes-become-game-changer-in-turkeys-easing-inflation-rate-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=115035&NewsCatID=344






Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on July 06, 2017, 11:44:20 AM
The lira has topped 4.70 to the pound on XE today,the highest it has been since early February.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 06, 2017, 13:43:31 PM
Just when Turkey is deploying troops in a show of support for Qatar so sticking its tongue out to Saudi Arabia. Trump will sort it all out - via Twitter.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Ray1951 on July 07, 2017, 14:10:49 PM
All branches of Ramsdens in the UK have recieved a memo stating that once their stock of Turklish Lira are gone, they will no longer stock Turkish Lira.  I also heard that some branches of Thomas Cook have said the same.  Personally, I think it's just the Turkish government trying to get people to change Sterling over there. Any other views?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 07, 2017, 14:54:26 PM
Perhaps their finance departments have suggested that TL is in for a rocky ride in the near future so instead of holding stocks of lira it would be better to order supplies when/if required? Just a guess.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on July 07, 2017, 15:44:14 PM
All branches of Ramsdens in the UK have recieved a memo stating that once their stock of Turklish Lira are gone, they will no longer stock Turkish Lira.

I never thought of using my TL in Harry Ramsden's. Next time I'm in Chester I'll let you know how I got on.   :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on July 07, 2017, 17:48:42 PM
All branches of Ramsdens in the UK have recieved a memo stating that once their stock of Turklish Lira are gone, they will no longer stock Turkish Lira.

I never thought of using my TL in Harry Ramsden's. Next time I'm in Chester I'll let you know how I got on.     :)

Reminds me of the guy who mined Bitcoins in the early days. He went to buy some pizzas and offered the guy 10,000 Bitcoins for two pizzas.

He realised a few years later that if he had kept them that they would would have been worth $78m dollars.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on July 07, 2017, 18:07:38 PM
Mined or minted ?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on July 07, 2017, 19:58:51 PM
Ramsdens never have a good exchange rate anyway.  Best to change in Turkey.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on July 07, 2017, 20:30:25 PM
Mined or minted ?

Mined. They are mined on a PC.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on July 07, 2017, 20:35:11 PM
Here's the actual story. Seems I was given the wrong info a few weeks back as at that time the bitcoin was worth about 3,000 dollars - so it would only have been 30 million dollars.

http://gulfnews.com/business/economy/the-10-000-bitcoin-pizza-purchase-remembered-1.2032051
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: corbindallas on July 17, 2017, 11:55:18 AM
I can never work out the Lira rate, all Turkish indicators are showing positives, inflation down, unemployment down, growth up, relationships with Russia back on track, Quatar relief adds to export market, Coup over a year now, referendum out the way, tourism rising, foreign investment growing etc etc, so why the bloody hell is Lira getting weaker against the Pound???? On the other side Sterling has all negative indicators, BREXIT, inflation, austerity, debt mountain growth, public spending increase, political uncertainty/unrest etc etc. but holding strong???? Weird and impossible to predict!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 17, 2017, 12:35:58 PM
It looks to me that the lira has been pretty stable, or rising, since the disastrous January of this year. At the start of February the rate was 4.75:£ and now it is 4.65:£ - an improvement of 2% for the lira. But that is a bit feeble due to the recovery of the pound at the same time. Against the usual international measure - the dollar - the lira has improved by 6%. What's wrong with that?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: corbindallas on July 19, 2017, 13:12:57 PM
Not sure 4.87 to 4.44 in last 6 months is stable, especially when exchanging forex, every time it starts to go down gradually it then jumps up quickly and as I said there seems no proper underlining to why.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 19, 2017, 14:44:31 PM
I don't know where you are getting your numbers but, if they were correct, that would show the lira getting stronger by nearly 10% whereas your original post said you wondered why it was getting weaker.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: corbindallas on July 25, 2017, 11:04:26 AM
Yahoo finance for the figures and today it is 4.63%, my point is that the rate is not stable at all, yet the economic returns suggest it should be good, even yesterday the IMF posted a positive re the Turkish economy, today it has reflected this by getting weaker not stronger??
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 25, 2017, 11:57:14 AM
Lira is a volatile currency and has been for years.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 25, 2017, 14:15:49 PM
I am going to agree with both of you. I agree with corbyndallas that, in the short term, the lira bounces up and down with no clear driving force for these variations (if we could predict currency movements we would be multi-billionaires!). Also JohnF is right that, as one of the "emerging economies" Turkey is always closely watched and thus its currency potentially volatile. My comment was intended to point out that the lira has been RELATIVELY stable since the start of February. The graph below shows a 12 month view $/TL. As you can see in the period from start Oct to (nearly) the end of Jan the TL took a  real hammering - losing 22% 0f its value. Sice then it has just jiggled up and down a bit.

(https://s18.postimg.org/tcdhaw085/Screenshot_3.png) (https://postimg.org/image/tcdhaw085/)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on September 12, 2017, 14:31:50 PM
Understanding Currency Exchange Rates

The Unite union says that, finally, after 7 years of oppression by a Tory Government utterly clueless about economics, it is going to organize opposition to the vicious and vindictive 1% pay rise cap on public sector workers. The money markets seem to believe that the workers are likely to be victorious against the weak and wobbly Tories - "ruling" by permission of the headbangers in DUP - and thus that the BoE will be inclined to raise interest rates. Buoyed with this optimism the £ has leapt up against all major foreign currencies - including a 1.7% hike against the lira which currently stands at over 4.55 to the pound.

See? It's easy this currency business, isn't it? You could have predicted that yesterday. Couldn't you?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: madmart on September 27, 2017, 12:06:37 PM
According to my phone the lira is now at 4.8 to the pound. How long before it hits 5?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 27, 2017, 12:36:18 PM
According to my phone the lira is now at 4.8 to the pound. How long before it hits 5?

Same question was asked in 2015. Never quite got there.

If it keeps going down we will just have to buy some more ;-)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 27, 2017, 20:59:25 PM
I remember thinking it would never go above 3. And then 4.

5 is more likely as we look at raising interest rates in the UK - the next big milestone before 5 is it reaching its highest rate since the 000's were dropped. That stands at 4.8605, and was in late January this year. We hit 4.8048 earlier today.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on October 09, 2017, 08:10:53 AM
Hit 4.93 earlier today
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on October 09, 2017, 09:46:54 AM
Tit for tat diplomatic row with US and potential incursions into Syria giving the markets a bit of a worry over the lira.  Chances are it'll recover, but then it may not.  :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 09, 2017, 10:21:48 AM
Rise in Turkish inflation (it went over 11% in September) suggests underlying economic weakness. Erdogan will be putting pressure on the CB to reduce interest rates to respond to high inflation - his target is 5%. If CB gives in then Scunner's 5TL pound may be just round the corner, especially since the £ is bouncing back after a few very bad days. (Tories: the party that put the May into mayhem).
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Ray1951 on October 09, 2017, 11:32:17 AM
All you 'would be' financiers will make NO difference to the world's economy but I'm sure it keeps you out of mischief. Currencies rise and currencies fall and always will.  If you can live day to day, month to month etc. just accept it and use the fluctuation for friendly banter.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Highlander on October 09, 2017, 12:49:34 PM
Eh ?

If people wish to comment on the present exchange rate that does not mean they consider themselves financiers surely. :(

If I commented on missions to the moon would that make me a would be rocket scientist ?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 09, 2017, 17:08:52 PM
How's the weather up your way, H? Oops, you're not a meteorologist so you wouldn't know, would you?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on October 09, 2017, 17:24:17 PM
All you 'would be' financiers will make NO difference to the world's economy but I'm sure it keeps you out of mischief. Currencies rise and currencies fall and always will.  If you can live day to day, month to month etc. just accept it and use the fluctuation for friendly banter.

What a very odd post to make on a DISCUSSION forum. 

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 11, 2017, 13:58:18 PM
Chances are it'll recover, but then it may not.   :)
Lira having a good day and has made back a big chunk of its Monday losses.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Daffodil on October 24, 2017, 00:57:48 AM
A Lira is 20p now!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on October 24, 2017, 06:13:26 AM
Nearly, but not quite.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on October 24, 2017, 07:50:01 AM
4.83tl to the pound in Seker bank yesterday. 4.75 Calis beach change office.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 24, 2017, 09:00:50 AM

"A Lira is 20p now!"

"Nearly, but not quite."


Hooray! To add to the celebratory atmosphere of the new CBF both Fabian and JohnF are right!!!

Google does indeed report that
1 Turkish Lira equals

0.20 British Pound

That is because it takes the pound to two decimal places and, quite properly rounds down to 0.20.

XE, on the other hand, states it to six decimal places as:
1 TRY =0.204149 GBP


Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on October 24, 2017, 09:02:26 AM
Will it make 5?

What with this and the Bitcoin I seem to be spending half my day on XE!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on October 25, 2017, 11:48:36 AM
Lira at an all time low against the pound today, currently sitting at 4.94.  Not doing too well against the USD either but nowhere near as bad as against the GBP.

Five by Friday?  No idea but if it carries on the way its doing today I wouldn't bet against it.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 25, 2017, 15:02:16 PM
Lira down to 20.23p. Going, going .....
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on October 25, 2017, 15:59:42 PM
... 20.19p ...
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on October 25, 2017, 16:07:23 PM
Now 20.17p.

It's three kurus plus the odds away from 5.  Maybe tomorrow...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on October 25, 2017, 16:49:33 PM
Still dropping, 20.12p now.  Looking like when not if.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: sadler on October 25, 2017, 17:47:48 PM
 :o
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on October 25, 2017, 18:36:07 PM
Five.

We'll actually 5.02 tl to the quid.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on October 25, 2017, 18:41:34 PM
Indeed


(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171025/22650e5ce3318c7c514e22d1ff313468.jpg)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Daffodil on October 26, 2017, 09:11:31 AM
Good gracious,still going down!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on October 26, 2017, 09:35:03 AM
How long till 6 :D


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on October 26, 2017, 10:10:27 AM
Still only 4.80 outside the Calis Change Office this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on October 26, 2017, 16:54:18 PM
Got 4.93 at bank in Fethiye today
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 01, 2017, 08:55:34 AM

         5. 06  today

       
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 01, 2017, 10:22:06 AM
So what will happen tomorrow? The money markets seem to be expecting the BoE to increase ointerst rates from 0.25% to 0.5%. If so that that can be expected to consolidate the stronger £. But suppose it doesn't. The Monetary Committee has been very cautious up to now and the last vote was 7/2 in favour of leaving the rate the same. Quite a few people will have to change their minds this time. If they don't and the  rate stays the same we might expect the £ to fall below 5 again.

The ball is rolling ... place your bets now please, Ladies and Gentleman.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 01, 2017, 12:31:53 PM



    You've sent it up to 5.08  Colwyn.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 01, 2017, 12:41:11 PM
Yeah, I'm betting Carney has hyped up a rate rise so much he'll be putting pressure on the committee to confirm it. There, that should put the rate up to 5.TEN !
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 01, 2017, 13:14:17 PM
Sterling having a good couple of days versus the Euro as well, currently at its highest for a few months.  Long may that one continue!

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on November 02, 2017, 11:16:47 AM
Looks like a 90% chance of a rise.

Lira and Euro have gained slightly this morning but the big news is bitcoin.

£500 invested two years ago now worth over £28k.

Damn I wish I’d listened to my kids for once - grrrr
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 02, 2017, 12:17:13 PM
Sterling fell off a cliff against the Euro and the Lira...  bummer.  Lets see what happens with the afternoon trading, may see a recovery.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on November 02, 2017, 13:05:43 PM
Looks like a 90% chance of a rise.





A 0.25% rise in UK interest rates. Lira now up to 5.11 to the pound.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on November 02, 2017, 13:07:35 PM
0.25 - 0.5% ! We knew it was coming eventually.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 02, 2017, 13:16:28 PM
Looks like a 90% chance of a rise.





A 0.25% rise in UK interest rates. Lira now up to 5.11 to the pound.

Where you getting that from?

The lira strengthened from 5.04 to 5.00 immediately after announcement and is still only at 5.01 to the pound.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on November 02, 2017, 13:46:35 PM
I was looking at XE, but it must have been a blip as its now showing 5.00 and with a high of only 5.06, much earlier today.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on November 02, 2017, 16:25:38 PM
Just shows the post Brexit reduction wasn’t needed. We are back where we were before the vote. Carney is a fool!

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 02, 2017, 16:47:49 PM
Just shows the post Brexit reduction wasn’t needed. We are back where we were before the vote. Carney is a fool!
??? Have you come off your medication, Stoop?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 02, 2017, 17:02:31 PM
Just shows the post Brexit reduction wasn’t needed. We are back where we were before the vote. Carney is a fool!
??? Have you come off your medication, Stoop?

His maths is obviously as good as most "brexiteers", i.e. seriously flawed.

JF
Title: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on November 02, 2017, 17:38:46 PM
Why would a UK interest rate rise cause it to weaken against other currencies? Surely it should be the other way round.

The more I see the less I understand.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 02, 2017, 17:49:55 PM
Quite. This is why is ain't a great idea to bet on exchange rates unless you have insider knowledge*. Here is a stab at an answer. All the money markets had already decided that a rate rise was coming and had taken that into account over the last few days so the £ was already pushed up. Therefore when it happened it didn't provide a fresh boost to the pound. That's what I expected to happen. But the £ actually went down suggesting that the money markets wanted better than 0.25%. Or perhaps a strong statement of further rises to come.

* Except for my brother who bet on the Brexit vote going wrong so bought a big heap of Euros before the vote when the pound still had a good value and so has a stock put aside for his next few year's holiday. Smart arse!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on November 02, 2017, 18:06:31 PM
The UK interest rate dropped 0.25% last August. It’s just gone up 0.25%.

By my maths that’s back where we started.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on November 02, 2017, 18:10:24 PM
Well it means we are back to where we were last August, I think interest rates started before then  :D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on November 02, 2017, 18:11:32 PM
Just shows the post Brexit reduction wasn’t needed. We are back where we were before the vote. Carney is a fool!
??? Have you come off your medication, Stoop?

His maths is obviously as good as most "brexiteers", i.e. seriously flawed.

JF

You can apologise any time you feel like it. No rush  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on November 02, 2017, 18:16:45 PM
Well it means we are back to where we were last August, I think interest rates started before then  :D

You know what I meant!

Anyway it was 2009 when it went to 0.5% so yes you are correct - it started well before last August   ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 02, 2017, 18:31:26 PM
Before the referendum the pound was worth 1.3€ and now it worth 1.12€ (down 14%). Inflation was 0.3% and is now 3% (10x higher). I suppose we should be grateful it is not a lot worse. Perhaps it would be without cautious BoE policy. Still David Davis has promised we will have trade deals with most of the rest of the world by July 2018 so everything will be fine by next summer.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on November 03, 2017, 09:57:27 AM
Before the referendum the pound was worth 1.3€ and now it worth 1.12€ (down 14%). Inflation was 0.3% and is now 3% (10x higher). I suppose we should be grateful it is not a lot worse. Perhaps it would be without cautious BoE policy. Still David Davis has promised we will have trade deals with most of the rest of the world by July 2018 so everything will be fine by next summer.

Cautious? Did you ever read Carney’s report on what the Brexit vote was going to do to the economy? That’s the vote - not actually Brexit!

He’s a numpty who should go back where he came from.

Anyway I’ll get a decent pension rise next Feb for once   ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 03, 2017, 09:58:03 AM
The remains weak, losing out to $, € and £ with the pound going back over 5 again. It seems this is partially fed by increasing inflation: figures announced today show a rate of 11.9% - the highest since October 2008.

Ah Stoop, I see you are following instructions from Brexit High Command to pile blame on Carney. I heard Norman Lamont saying exactly the same yesterday. Well he certainly knows about interest rate rises having given us two in one day on Black Wednesday! And costing Britain £3.3billion in just a few hours, for no benefit at all. At today's prices that would be £7 billion - i.e. the net cost of an entire year's membership of the EU.

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on November 04, 2017, 09:54:23 AM
Well since the vote the ftse 100 and 250 are at all time highs.

This means anyone with a pension invested or a stock market based investment is doing well.

Carney was a remoaner who hit the panic button before and after the vote. He warned of economic disaster if we voted leave. It hasn’t happened.

In fact our service sector( our largest sector)  has recorded excellent rises again this quarter and it’s mooted this is due to the possibility of a hard Brexit.

Rock on Tommy!

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 04, 2017, 10:49:05 AM
Meanwhile, in the real world, the TL is back to 5.08 to the pound, down to 4.5 to the euro and the next meaningless milestone may be the 4TL dollar.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on November 04, 2017, 23:27:08 PM
Meanwhile, in the real world, the TL is back to 5.08 to the pound, down to 4.5 to the euro and the next meaningless milestone may be the 4TL dollar.



Excellent leftist diversion. Corbyn will be proud.????????????
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on November 04, 2017, 23:30:56 PM
In a topic about the value of the lira, a post about the value of the lira is a “leftist diversion”?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on November 05, 2017, 00:12:26 AM
So what will happen tomorrow? The money markets seem to be expecting the BoE to increase ointerst rates from 0.25% to 0.5%. If so that that can be expected to consolidate the stronger £. But suppose it doesn't. The Monetary Committee has been very cautious up to now and the last vote was 7/2 in favour of leaving the rate the same. Quite a few people will have to change their minds this time. If they don't and the  rate stays the same we might expect the £ to fall below 5 again.

The ball is rolling ... place your bets now please, Ladies and Gentleman.

Coleen started it Scunner  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 05, 2017, 06:35:49 AM




             Fluctuations.           ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 05, 2017, 10:40:33 AM
In a topic about the value of the lira, a post about the value of the lira is a “leftist diversion”?
Don't try confuse the lad, Scunner, he's already terminally muddled.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 06, 2017, 09:57:46 AM
Here is a teaser for you. Turkey's Central Bank is hoarding gold. Gold worth over $5 billion has been bought up this year {I reckon that is over 100 tons}. So ... why? In a Mortimer and Reeves moment, Robin Bhar (a Society Generale financial analyst)  said “There could be any number of reasons why they’re doing this, we just don’t know”. So there you are, free rein to exercise Turkey's second most popular pastime - conspiracy theory (the first being smoking of course). Why is the CB gathering a mountain of gold?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-03/turkey-s-gold-buying-spree-has-market-wondering-how-much-and-why (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-03/turkey-s-gold-buying-spree-has-market-wondering-how-much-and-why)
[You may need to sign up direct or via facebook to read the full text]


Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 06, 2017, 11:06:58 AM


    Could be anticipating a run on the price of Efes.?

    I get the feeling that some problems are being masked plus there are upcoming elections that have to be fought and bought.

    Or they could be preparing to tell the EU and it's democracy where to go and go down the undemocratic Eastern route.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 06, 2017, 11:22:44 AM
A couple of weeks ago HDN noted that the Central Bank had also been stockpiling great piles of cash, far more than it needs to pay off current debts. If you see fleets of artic trucks being loaded up with shoeboxes and heading for Istanbul it could be a sign that Erdogan is preparing to do a runner.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/ugur-gurses/treasurys-cash-central-banks-gold-reserves-rising-121410 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/ugur-gurses/treasurys-cash-central-banks-gold-reserves-rising-121410)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on November 07, 2017, 07:39:37 AM
Maybe hes found out about where the  Queen Elizabeth is stashing her money, in the Cayman islands.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 07, 2017, 08:33:11 AM

   Well according to today's HDN the Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim has 8 companies offshore in Malta registered in his families

   names, as revealed in the "Paradise Papers. The main opposition party CHP are asking him to explain  this.

   Who else may be found out. ??          :o
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Daffodil2017 on November 07, 2017, 11:29:01 AM
What happens if the lira drops to  virtually worthless against the pound?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 07, 2017, 11:39:00 AM
CBF will have to scrap the Efe$ Index.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on November 07, 2017, 12:18:40 PM
We'll have to reintroduce the COBI (Cost OF Baklava Index).
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Daffodil2017 on November 07, 2017, 14:46:24 PM
Does that mean you will be paid to drink Efes?  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: sadler on November 07, 2017, 15:08:38 PM
Does that mean you will be paid to drink Efes?   :)





Now that sounds like a plan.  :D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 07, 2017, 16:05:45 PM
Yeah, I'm betting Carney has hyped up a rate rise so much he'll be putting pressure on the committee to confirm it. There, that should put the rate up to 5.TEN !
It took a while but it finally got there.


(https://s1.postimg.org/3eylgjifzv/Lira.png) (https://postimg.org/image/3eylgjifzv/)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 07, 2017, 16:10:31 PM


    The power of CBF eh.!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 07, 2017, 18:05:04 PM
Does that mean you will be paid to drink Efes?   :)

No, I still wouldn't drink it, even if being paid.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on November 08, 2017, 09:36:06 AM
In a topic about the value of the lira, a post about the value of the lira is a “leftist diversion”?
Don't try confuse the lad, Scunner, he's already terminally muddled.


I’m not confused at all thanks  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 17, 2017, 08:34:50 AM


      5.14  this morning.             ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: MrT on November 17, 2017, 10:24:29 AM


      5.14  this morning.              ;)

5.16 when I just looked, The Liras not having a good day
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 17, 2017, 10:30:48 AM
Sometimes Erdogan likes to come out with some provocative outburst after Friday prayers. Has he said anything that might trigger a fall of 1.25% against the £, 1% v, €uro, and 0.8% v. $ ? Or is it perhaps an organized testing of the TRY to see whether the CB is willing to support it?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Laura B on November 17, 2017, 11:53:34 AM
You're quite correct and here is the reason:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/lira-weakens-to-3-9-against-dollar-after-erdogans-central-bank-comments-122577
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 20, 2017, 13:42:29 PM



        5. 19  now.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on November 20, 2017, 18:16:49 PM
5.07 to 5.20 in one day - not good.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 20, 2017, 20:00:10 PM


    Big problems coming via USA.        ;)          Squeaky bum time.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 21, 2017, 07:51:48 AM


         5.25  today.                6.00 by Christmas.????     
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on November 21, 2017, 09:51:44 AM
Got 5.19 in Seker Bank this morning. The Change Offices in town were giving 5.07.  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on November 21, 2017, 09:54:11 AM
https://www.dailysabah.com/finance/2017/11/21/us-dollar-euro-renew-record-highs-against-turkish-lira
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on November 21, 2017, 10:54:19 AM
Ah, that explains it.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 21, 2017, 11:31:53 AM
Just makes all those shoeboxes full of dollars and euros worth even more.

Seen nothing to suggest the TCB can stop this slide medium term.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on November 21, 2017, 13:21:20 PM
All the people that took RTE's advice in January to sell foreign currency and buy lira will be happy.

€1000 in January would have bought around 4100 TL at best.

4100 TL is today worth around €886
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 21, 2017, 16:00:08 PM
Meanwhile ...  the TL is back to 5.08 to the pound, down to 4.5 to the euro and the next meaningless milestone may be the 4TL dollar.
A couple of weeks on, and the £ is up around 5.26₺, the € above 4.6and the countdown is on for $ = 4... yesterday 3.921, now 3.965 ... that's a jump of another 1% today.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on November 22, 2017, 04:35:50 AM
All the people that took RTE's advice in January to sell foreign currency and buy lira will be happy.

€1000 in January would have bought around 4100 TL at best.

4100 TL is today worth around €886

meanwhile he's put all his Lira into bitcoins   ;)

£500 2 years ago = £33,000 today  :o
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on November 22, 2017, 18:36:58 PM
The lira has a good day today - against the Zimbabwean dollar.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 22, 2017, 23:03:43 PM
Ha ha! 

Believe it or not, but the Zimbabwe Dollar made gains against the lira this week. 

Bizarre!

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 23, 2017, 09:08:59 AM
Unlike the UK, Zimbabwe has a strong and stable government.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 23, 2017, 09:57:25 AM


      But just like the UK they have a splintered and weak opposition.


      It;s  5.22  by the way. !!            ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 24, 2017, 09:17:16 AM
I found this graph interesting. It shows the performance of TRY versus USD since AKP got into power. The lira was generally level or above its initial value until 2011. Then it dropped by 10% and stayed there until start of 2013. But since then it has been downhill all the way. Not the crazy devaluations of the years before AKP but it is 50% down on where it started at the beginning of the AKP regime.

(https://s7.postimg.org/50cjomnav/AKP_TRY.png) (https://postimg.org/image/50cjomnav/)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 24, 2017, 09:56:19 AM
The AKP undid a lot of good work that had been carried out under the previous ruling coalition.  They took a lot of credit for economic measures put in place by the ANAP & DSP and given the state of the economy (and the lira) after fifteen years of AKP rule, one wonders what it'll be like by the time the next elections come round.

5.25 to the quid and 3.94 to the dollar just now. Suspect we'll see the dollar rate breaking 4.0 shortly, another disastrous economic milestone on the AKP's watch.

JF

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 28, 2017, 08:22:32 AM
Slight recovery on both fronts since trading opened on Monday morning.  If you believe the CHP then maybe thats not such good news for the wee fella and his family:

“Erdoğan, I will ask you a simple question: Do you know that your children, your brother-in-law, your father-in-law, your brother, and your former executive assistant have deposited millions of U.S. dollars with a company based in off-shore tax-havens?” Kılıçdaroğlu said on Nov. 21, referring to a specific company without citing its name.
Looks like the paradise Papers have the dirt on Yildirim, his son has stashed a fair wad in Malta.
More here: Link (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/chp-and-akp-trade-barbs-over-claims-of-erdogans-relatives-off-shore-accounts-123158)
JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 28, 2017, 10:00:47 AM



     A  CHP spokesman has said that Kilicdaroglu will today name names.

     And news is filtering through that Zarrab will NOT stand trial in the US as he's been co operating with authorities.

     The Halbank official  Attilla will stand trial alone.  Zarrab is a young guy and would'nt want to spend the rest of his

     life in a US jail so he's done a plea bargain.  What has he told them.????  Watch the Lira. !!!!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 28, 2017, 11:23:59 AM
Twenty five years in a supermax prison or spills the beans...

Easy choice for him, and I suspect the feds are sweetening the deal for all the dirt they can get. It's how they use it that'll be interesting.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 28, 2017, 12:04:50 PM



       Kilicdaroglu has just stated that he holds the transfer documents to millions of dollars that have been transferred by

       the wee fella's family to accounts in the Isle of Man that were opened with a £1  deposit.   HDN.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 28, 2017, 12:27:51 PM
It is rumoured that the documents held by Kılıçdaroğlu are SWIFT transfers to an Isle of Man company hiding millions of dollars transferred by Erdogan relatives.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 28, 2017, 13:45:09 PM


   Kilicdaroglu has now gone on to name family members, amounts transferred, dates, names of the company's set up,

   changes of names, Swift documents, Bank documents ect. He is now calling on Erdogan to resign.

   The name of the company set up is Bellway Ltd.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Laura B on November 28, 2017, 14:18:22 PM
And the big guy's lawyer has taken up the reins

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogans-lawyer-slams-chp-heads-off-shore-claims-about-president-as-fake-and-lies-123214
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 28, 2017, 14:31:31 PM
All we need to find out now is that the millions came from kickbacks to Erdogan from the 'gold-for-gas' plot and we'll have the two current scandals neatly tied together.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Laura B on November 28, 2017, 14:39:04 PM
And Zarrab has put up his hands!

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-iranian-businessman-reza-zarrab-pleads-guilty-in-us-report-123220
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 28, 2017, 15:03:52 PM
And, obediently, the lira has lost 1.25% against the dollar.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on November 28, 2017, 22:03:20 PM




              5. 29  this evening
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on November 28, 2017, 22:06:07 PM
4 to the $ looming close :O
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on November 29, 2017, 05:28:22 AM
Above 5.30 this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 29, 2017, 11:11:20 AM
4 to the $ looming close :O
This is the third time in two weeks that the dollar has shot to 3.95 and then stuck. Is TCB doing everything it can behind the scenes to support the lira to delay the psychological barrier of 4 being broken (we know it has plenty of foreign currency and gold to do this)? Will TCB break this time?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on November 29, 2017, 16:41:34 PM
4 to the $ looming close :O
This is the third time in two weeks that the dollar has shot to 3.95 and then stuck. Is TCB doing everything it can behind the scenes to support the lira to delay the psychological barrier of 4 being broken (we know it has plenty of foreign currency and gold to do this)? Will TCB break this time?

Help please! Brain trying to work this out.

Does this mean that Turkey is buying foreign held lira with its stocks of dollars /gold to falsely over value the lira?

I'm not an economist - by any stretch - but this seems like a very short term fix.

(Is this what happened when Gordon Brown sold our gold or was that a different thing altogether?)

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 29, 2017, 17:06:11 PM
Your first and second suppositions are correct. The Turkish Central Bank can help to ensure that there is a demand for lira - keeping prices up - by buying them itself. It got much of the cash and gold for doing this by the government persuading Turkish citizens that the patriotic thing to do was to give up their own dollars and gold in exchange for lira - thus supporting the lira and providing the Central Bank with more reserves without them having to go onto the international markets. [I don't know how many Turks actually followed this advice, rather than hiding their wealth in the Isle of Man]. Your second point about it being short term is also probably right since, sooner or later, the Bank must run out of dollars and/or gold. The hope is that by "weathering the storm" the lira comes out on the other side of the storm and then will not need support. Perhaps there will be good economic news for Turkey and perhaps inflation will come down. The problem for the Central Bank is that its most powerful weapon to support the lira, to increase interest rates, drives Erdogan into a spitting frenzy and you might get called traitor, Gulenist, terrorist and be chucked in prison.

On the other point about Brown's gold sell-off this was different. Brown thought that the UK would get a better return on its assets by investing them instead of leaving them sitting idly in gold bullion. Later gold went up in price and, with the benefit of hindsight, some people said be had been wrong to sell. He was almost certainly wrong to let people know he was selling off big piles of gold as this drove down the price. Here's a reflection on those old events that is written without too many of those long economicky words with which, allegedly, Gormless Gove has fallen in love:
https://www.ft.com/content/5788dbac-7680-11e0-b05b-00144feabdc0 (https://www.ft.com/content/5788dbac-7680-11e0-b05b-00144feabdc0)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on November 29, 2017, 17:09:06 PM
Thanks Colwyn.

Much clearer now.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on November 29, 2017, 17:35:46 PM
It seems to have to sign in to read the article. i don't think you have to pay; I certainly haven't.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on November 29, 2017, 17:39:04 PM
Can't seem to get into it without subscribing but your explanation more than covers it for me.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on November 29, 2017, 17:53:22 PM
It's 'free to read' here  ;) :-


   The continued run of the gold price is a global investment sensation. Recently it broke the $1,500 an ounce barrier for the first time, 30 per cent higher than a year ago. Surely this lays bare the extraordinary foolishness of Gordon Brown’s announcement, 12 years ago this week, that the UK Treasury would sell off some of Britain’s gold holdings?

Actually, no. On this one occasion, Mr Brown’s decision was the right one. Let speculators go gambling on a shiny metal, if they want to. For most governments in rich countries, holding gold remains a largely pointless activity.

With hindsight, of course, Mr Brown could have gained a better price by waiting. At current rates, the $3.5bn the UK received selling bullion between 1999 and 2002 would have been closer to $19bn. The difference at current exchange rates, by the way, would be enough to cover a little over three weeks of the UK’s expected public deficit for the fiscal year 2010-2011 – not negligible, but hardly pivotal.

Mr Brown, his critics say, must be kicking himself. Similarly, the French no doubt still suffer sleepless nights for prematurely taking profit on their Louisiana claim by offloading it to Thomas Jefferson in 1803. And had I put my life savings on Ballabriggs at 20-1 before last month’s Grand National, I’d be writing this on a solid platinum laptop while being sprayed with pink champagne in my new beachfront villa in Barbados.

That is the way of things with speculative assets. The truth is that no one has a good explanation why the gold price is currently where it is. The familiar story – a hedge against inflation or government insolvency – is flatly contradicted by the low yields and inflation expectations in US Treasury bonds. The volatility of gold (and other precious metals – witness the huge drop in silver prices this week) merely underlines the risk of holding it. The $1,500 landmark is a nominal price: had governments listened to the bullion fanatics and loaded up on gold in the last big bull market in the early 1980s, they would still be waiting to earn their money back in real terms.

More substantively, criticism of Mr Brown’s sale also betrays a misunderstanding of why a country such as the UK has gold at all.

In common with most rich nations, the function of British foreign exchange reserves is not for the government to manage wealth on behalf of the country. British citizens do that themselves. The UK does not have a sovereign wealth fund that aims to maximise returns, and nor should it. It is not a big net oil and gas exporter such as Norway – UK net foreign exchange reserves are about $40bn, equivalent to 2 per cent of nominal gross domestic product, while Norway’s sovereign fund has $525bn, equivalent to almost 140 per cent of its GDP.

Nor does the UK pile up foreign assets by persistently selling its own currency to manipulate the exchange rate, as does China. It is notable that the much-vaunted official purchases of gold over the past year are mainly by countries such as China and Russia – and, to a lesser extent, Mexico – with big excess reserves.

UK reserves are there mainly for precautionary reasons – to intervene in currency markets to stop a run on sterling or to pursue monetary policy objectives. Yet gold is badly suited for this task because, despite recent interest from private investors, a large proportion of global above-ground stocks – 18 per cent in 2010 – is still held by governments.

Any attempt to sell off large amounts quickly risks driving down the world price, which is what happened after Mr Brown’s announcement in 1999, leading to an international agreement between central banks to restrict further sales.

A precautionary reserve asset held for intervention purposes whose price is likely to fall the instant it is used to intervene is singularly pointless. Of course, central banks selling into a rising market like today’s may not have the same impact as in 1999, but who knows what demand for gold will be like if and when the intervention is needed?

There remains only one other main reason for governments to hold gold – to set monetary policy by linking the national currency to the gold price. This remains as bad an idea as ever. It would have meant sharply tightening monetary policy since the fall of 2008. This would have been madness.

Private investors, and sovereign wealth funds out to make returns, can punt their money on what they like. If they choose to plonk it down on the blackjack table of the commodity markets, that is their decision. But there is no good reason that governments that hold reserves for purely precautionary purposes should feel the need to follow them.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on November 30, 2017, 12:23:17 PM
5.33 to the pound earlier this morning, but the dollar still not broken the symbolic 4tl barrier yet.

Massive trade deficit announced (73.9%) and inflation at a nine year high (11.9% last month), only a matter of time before the dollar cracks 4tl.

Will it be a rant from the wee fella, or will it be the CHP backing up their claims regarding the wee fella and his family?

I reckon this coming Monday could be an important days trading for the lira.

JF

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 01, 2017, 11:49:28 AM
Interesting article in today's HDN relating to Halkbanks position as a state lender and the allegations that it facilitated sanction busting transactions by Iran.  The penultimate paragraph is probably the most important:

"Ankara is duly expected to deny all the accusations, even if the court eventually fines Halkbank. In that case, however, Turkey’s banking sector may face heavy penalties, as the U.S. Treasury could withdraw a license to clear dollar transactions. Congress could also impose further economic and political sanctions."

Full article (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/selin-nasi/turkeys-options-in-the-zarrab-case-123312)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on December 02, 2017, 00:31:35 AM
It's 'free to read' here   ;) :-


   The continued run of the gold price is a global investment sensation. Recently it broke the $1,500 an ounce barrier for the first time, 30 per cent higher than a year ago. Surely this lays bare the extraordinary foolishness of Gordon Brown’s announcement, 12 years ago this week, that the UK Treasury would sell off some of Britain’s gold holdings?

Actually, no. On this one occasion, Mr Brown’s decision was the right one. Let speculators go gambling on a shiny metal, if they want to. For most governments in rich countries, holding gold remains a largely pointless activity.

With hindsight, of course, Mr Brown could have gained a better price by waiting. At current rates, the $3.5bn the UK received selling bullion between 1999 and 2002 would have been closer to $19bn. The difference at current exchange rates, by the way, would be enough to cover a little over three weeks of the UK’s expected public deficit for the fiscal year 2010-2011 – not negligible, but hardly pivotal.

Mr Brown, his critics say, must be kicking himself. Similarly, the French no doubt still suffer sleepless nights for prematurely taking profit on their Louisiana claim by offloading it to Thomas Jefferson in 1803. And had I put my life savings on Ballabriggs at 20-1 before last month’s Grand National, I’d be writing this on a solid platinum laptop while being sprayed with pink champagne in my new beachfront villa in Barbados.

That is the way of things with speculative assets. The truth is that no one has a good explanation why the gold price is currently where it is. The familiar story – a hedge against inflation or government insolvency – is flatly contradicted by the low yields and inflation expectations in US Treasury bonds. The volatility of gold (and other precious metals – witness the huge drop in silver prices this week) merely underlines the risk of holding it. The $1,500 landmark is a nominal price: had governments listened to the bullion fanatics and loaded up on gold in the last big bull market in the early 1980s, they would still be waiting to earn their money back in real terms.

More substantively, criticism of Mr Brown’s sale also betrays a misunderstanding of why a country such as the UK has gold at all.

In common with most rich nations, the function of British foreign exchange reserves is not for the government to manage wealth on behalf of the country. British citizens do that themselves. The UK does not have a sovereign wealth fund that aims to maximise returns, and nor should it. It is not a big net oil and gas exporter such as Norway – UK net foreign exchange reserves are about $40bn, equivalent to 2 per cent of nominal gross domestic product, while Norway’s sovereign fund has $525bn, equivalent to almost 140 per cent of its GDP.

Nor does the UK pile up foreign assets by persistently selling its own currency to manipulate the exchange rate, as does China. It is notable that the much-vaunted official purchases of gold over the past year are mainly by countries such as China and Russia – and, to a lesser extent, Mexico – with big excess reserves.

UK reserves are there mainly for precautionary reasons – to intervene in currency markets to stop a run on sterling or to pursue monetary policy objectives. Yet gold is badly suited for this task because, despite recent interest from private investors, a large proportion of global above-ground stocks – 18 per cent in 2010 – is still held by governments.

Any attempt to sell off large amounts quickly risks driving down the world price, which is what happened after Mr Brown’s announcement in 1999, leading to an international agreement between central banks to restrict further sales.

A precautionary reserve asset held for intervention purposes whose price is likely to fall the instant it is used to intervene is singularly pointless. Of course, central banks selling into a rising market like today’s may not have the same impact as in 1999, but who knows what demand for gold will be like if and when the intervention is needed?

There remains only one other main reason for governments to hold gold – to set monetary policy by linking the national currency to the gold price. This remains as bad an idea as ever. It would have meant sharply tightening monetary policy since the fall of 2008. This would have been madness.

Private investors, and sovereign wealth funds out to make returns, can punt their money on what they like. If they choose to plonk it down on the blackjack table of the commodity markets, that is their decision. But there is no good reason that governments that hold reserves for purely precautionary purposes should feel the need to follow them.


Brown was an economic fool and cost our country a fortune.

Only Corbin and MacDonald could top him!

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 02, 2017, 09:51:16 AM

Brown was an economic fool and cost our country a fortune.


Stoop, it's a pity your knowledge of economics is so poor that you couldn't even manage to read this simple article that explains why you are wrong. Never mind, I'm sure you are happy with your simplistic view of the world however misguided.

"Surely this lays bare the extraordinary foolishness of Gordon Brown’s announcement, 12 years ago this week, that the UK Treasury would sell off some of Britain’s gold holdings? Actually, no. On this one occasion, Mr Brown’s decision was the right one."
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on December 02, 2017, 10:06:08 AM
Stoop has never forgiven Gordon Brown for taking us into the Common Market
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 02, 2017, 12:18:07 PM
Oh, is it that what it is. I thought it was that he blamed Brown for refusing to let us join the Euro. If we were in € Stoop wouldn't have to get aerated about the Bank of England.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 04, 2017, 14:51:10 PM
I reckon this coming Monday could be an important days trading for the lira.
JF
The £ has had a good day on rumours that we might be able to reclaim something from the Brexit mess. It is up against € and $. But is having an even better day: up against the £, further up against the $ and even further up against the €. And the reason for this is ... . . .? Suggestions invited. Finally a post that actually fits the title of the thread!

[P.S. As a wild guess I think the £ money markets may be underestimating "The Irish Problem" - specifically the DUP.].


Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 04, 2017, 15:16:48 PM
Yep, pound having a good day against the euro which makes me a happy camper  :)

Had a feeling the lira would go significantly one way or the other today, and sure enough it's done really well against the dollar and to a lesser extent against the pound.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 04, 2017, 15:29:42 PM
1.14 eh? I imagine you are dancing in the street and swilling back the fino.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 05, 2017, 09:19:56 AM
[P.S. As a wild guess I think the £ money markets may be underestimating "The Irish Problem" - specifically the DUP.].
Well I got something right for once - and I wish I hadn't. The 10 DUP MPs now dictate to the UK Government what it is allowed to do about of Brexit and the £ has tumbled back down again.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on December 05, 2017, 11:27:40 AM
1.14 eh? I imagine you are dancing in the street and swilling back the fino.

Not quite dancing in the street, but certainly swilling down the Fino. At one euro a pop it's so hard not to  :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 06, 2017, 14:08:31 PM
A week ago the dollar was over 3.95 to the lira and people were speculating on it hitting 4 by the end of the week. Now it is below 3.85 and may be going lower. Funny old thing this currency stuff, ain't it?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on December 06, 2017, 14:43:41 PM
A week ago the dollar was over 3.95 to the lira and people were speculating on it hitting 4 by the end of the week. Now it is below 3.85 and may be going lower. Funny old thing this currency stuff, ain't it?

Yeah - a year ago my son was adamant that Bitcoin would reach $10,000 by the end of this year. It’s almost £10,000.

If only I’d listened :(
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: 1calis on December 06, 2017, 19:05:33 PM
bitcoin over $12000 today on bitfinex
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on December 07, 2017, 07:41:48 AM
And Bitcoin is now over 55,000 TL.
That would have bought you a few Efes Stoop.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on December 07, 2017, 21:52:49 PM
Just gone to $16,300!

Fortunately my better half listened!

I love my sons :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: 1calis on December 09, 2017, 14:32:05 PM
Bitcoin down a bit today. Ethereum being talked about as overtaking bitcoin. That could mean from $450 to over $15000 if bitcoin does not plummet.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on December 09, 2017, 15:21:49 PM
 >:(  I lost my Bitcoin when it fell through a virtual hole in my electronic pocket :( 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on January 15, 2018, 18:12:09 PM
Bad day for the lira
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 15, 2018, 18:15:07 PM
I doesn't look quite so bad in dollars - but clearly a bloody nose.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on January 15, 2018, 19:37:55 PM



         It's all part of the wee fella's strategy.  He has a cunning plan. !!!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on January 15, 2018, 20:49:26 PM
I know someone else who had one of those.

(http://fileunderoptimism.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/baldrick-blackadder.jpg)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: philrose on January 16, 2018, 07:09:34 AM
5.24 and still dropping.....
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 16, 2018, 15:44:10 PM
It appears to have recovered, slightly. 

Could be a big week for the lira, interest rate announcement due at some point and, according to HDN (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-lira-falls-amid-escalating-geopolitical-concerns-125845), Fitch Ratings may adjust Turkey's credit rating.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 16, 2018, 16:37:21 PM

Daily News is suggesting that the immediate trigger for the fall in the lira is Turkey's decision to launch a campaign in northern Syria against the Kurdish YPG. The US is supporting a coalition of the YPG to work alongside the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to setup  a border control zone. Meanwhile Erdogan says Turkey will work with the SDF in order to attack the YPG. Messy enough for you? To compound this, as JohnF says, important financial news to follow later in the week.


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-lira-falls-amid-escalating-geopolitical-concerns-125845 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-lira-falls-amid-escalating-geopolitical-concerns-125845)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 20, 2018, 16:09:42 PM
Ok, interest rates unchanged and Fitch Ratings unchanged.  Would be happy days for the lira if the wee fella hadn't decided to wage war on Syrian Kurds in Afrin, with threats to carry out a major incursion into a neighbouring sovereign state.

As it stands today, it's shelling and overflights by Turkish fighters jets - soon as they physically cross the border who knows how it'll affect the lira.  If I was a gambler, I know which direction I'd betting on...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on January 21, 2018, 18:27:20 PM
5.27 to 5.33 in one second just now
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on January 21, 2018, 18:59:30 PM
Blimey! Who  woke up the money markets on a Sunday? Perhaps it is just a few small trades and things will get back to normal trading tomorrow? Or perhaps starting an invasion on a Sunday doesn't catch everyone asleep/on the beach.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on January 21, 2018, 19:34:08 PM
Tomorrow morning could be interesting
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on January 21, 2018, 20:07:51 PM
It'll be Just Another Manic Monday.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 21, 2018, 22:50:09 PM
That's a first for me, seeing the lira hit an all time low against the quid on a Sunday night when most markets are closed. Doesn't bode well for the morning...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 22, 2018, 08:16:43 AM
...and as usual, you can just never tell with the lira!

Recovered, although maybe that sounds a bit too positive, to 5.29 against the quid and 3.81 against the dollar when the main European markets opened - still, could be an interesting week.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on January 25, 2018, 09:08:46 AM
Another record low for the lira today against the quid, 5.35 and if you're a Finansbank customer you can get 5.33 right now.

Doing better against the dollar but that's more to do with the dollar weakening I think.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 08, 2018, 14:28:07 PM
In the UK the BoE warns of interest rate rises so the sterling bounces up to a new record high against the lira. Pity HSBC won't give you any in Fethiye!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on February 08, 2018, 14:56:45 PM
Perhaps they're trying to hang on to their £'s instead of the TL ?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: 1calis on February 08, 2018, 16:56:26 PM
Is it just the ATM's or also the branches?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 20, 2018, 16:19:13 PM
The Odd World of Money Markets
This morning our Brexit Supremo, David (Dangerous) Davis announced that: Britain will not be "plunged into a Mad Max-style world borrowed from dystopian fiction" after it leaves the EU. Did anybody, other than Stoop, suppose we were actually headed for Mad Max World? Apparently - Yes! The money markets seem to have been worried about this and were so reassured by Davis' remarks that Sterling took a happy upward leap and is now running at over 5.32 to the lira.


Strange eh? Now ... who asked whether the £/TL would be higher or lower in August?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on February 20, 2018, 17:25:04 PM



    Or perhaps  the markets were reassured by Comrade Corbyn's claims that his habit of" hanging out " with repressive regimes

    and terror groups around the globe was nothing to do with spying after all, and they were just his preferred company.

    Events in Syria could effect more than just the Lira, I think.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on February 21, 2018, 09:22:58 AM
Yeah, he's got a great sense of humour has Jeremy.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on February 21, 2018, 10:39:04 AM



     Well it deserted him yesterday when challenged by the press. He threw a wobbler did Jeremy.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 08, 2018, 14:17:52 PM
On the day when HDN are reporting that Turkey hopes to have 5 million German tourists this year, following improving relations between the two countries, there is encouragement for EU tourism as the Euro hits record levels against the Lra. After some weeks of calm for the lira this seems to be more a sign of the continuing strength of the € (up 17% against $ in the last 12 months) than any great weakening of ₺.which remains steady against £.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 13, 2018, 07:58:04 AM
All time low against sterling this morning, 5.36 and looks like its got further to go.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on March 13, 2018, 08:43:00 AM
I will have to get to the bank.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on March 13, 2018, 10:11:19 AM



           Take a wheelbarrow.      :)  :)  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 13, 2018, 10:47:23 AM
5.376 now.  Probably a small van would be better.

A bit of a turbulent time ahead methinks, Moodys downgraded Turkeys rating (as a country) last week, this was how Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-ratings-moody-s/moodys-downgrades-turkeys-sovereign-rating-markets-shrug-idUSKCN1GK0WW) reported it:

"ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Ratings agency Moody’s cut Turkey’s sovereign rating further into junk territory overnight, citing a continued weakening of its economic and political institutions and the increased risks from its wide current account deficit."

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Taddy on March 13, 2018, 12:09:37 PM
the menu prices on the chalkboards will be getting scrubbed out and changed on a daily basis at this rate. Hope they have enough chalk to last the season.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 13, 2018, 12:41:59 PM
If they are still there to do that. This is not good news for a lot of small Turkish businesses as very often their rent is paid in dollars, euros or sterling.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Taddy on March 13, 2018, 14:05:03 PM
Did not mean to be flippant here.
The strong Lira may help in some way, for example where travel articles state what good value a countries currency is compared to previous years.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on March 13, 2018, 14:16:55 PM
It won't help selling property though unless you find non Turkish buyers :(
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on March 13, 2018, 16:13:57 PM
Now at 5.40 on XE.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on March 13, 2018, 16:50:28 PM
It won't help selling property though unless you find non Turkish buyers :(
Well you could buy some property instead?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on March 13, 2018, 16:59:42 PM
In all my years of going to Turkey I have never changed my tl into GBP's once back in uk, i have always kept it for the next trip, therefore Iv never paid much attention to what the exchange rate is this way round, I know its not good, does the buy back rate show on XE please?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 13, 2018, 17:38:42 PM
XE shows 1 TRY at 18.47p.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 13, 2018, 18:05:19 PM
P.S. This is not quite the same as a "buyback rate" if by that you mean a special agreement you made with the currency supplier to buy back any unspent lira at an agreed customer rate. But, since you don't usually change back to £s, I guess you don't have one of these.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on March 13, 2018, 18:56:58 PM
It won't help selling property though unless you find non Turkish buyers :(
Well you could buy some property instead?

Been there. Done that.  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on March 13, 2018, 22:01:54 PM
Thank you Colwyn I have been on XE having a look at tl to gbp...ooh no Iv never heard of a buyback rate agreement
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on March 13, 2018, 22:49:24 PM
In terms of property, if you agree that prices aren't hugely different to ten years ago, 2008, a £45k 2 bedroom apartment in Calis would cost a Turkish buyer 108,000 TL (2.40/£) back then. Although the price in pounds hasn't changed, today they would need to find 243,000 TL.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 14, 2018, 09:19:03 AM
Thank you Colwyn I have been on XE having a look at tl to gbp...ooh no Iv never heard of a buyback rate agreement
Here is the Moneycorp Guarantee

For your unspent currency, we will:

But they have a relatively poor exchange rate of 5.16 so the buy back rate would be 19.37p - so you'd lose on taking it out (compared with changing in Turkey) but gain on buyback. Not really worth it.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on March 14, 2018, 10:59:23 AM
Thank you Colwyn I have been on XE having a look at tl to gbp...ooh no Iv never heard of a buyback rate agreement

Tesco's, The Post Office, M&S, Debenhams, banks and travel agents etc usually have their buy and sell rates displayed at their foreign exchange counters
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on March 14, 2018, 14:29:27 PM
Now at 5.40 on XE.

5.425 not long ago today
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on March 15, 2018, 09:41:31 AM
The Dikmen change office in Fethiye was giving 5.31 this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on March 15, 2018, 18:25:20 PM
Pushing 5.45 the last time I checked.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on March 16, 2018, 16:53:36 PM




              5.46 at the mo'       ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 19, 2018, 09:08:27 AM
Just pinged through 5.5 to the £. Next landmarks: 4 to $ and 5 to €.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on March 19, 2018, 10:30:54 AM
https://www.dailysabah.com/finance/2018/03/19/euro-hits-record-high-dollar-climbs-against-turkish-lira
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 19, 2018, 11:46:19 AM
Jeez, the Sabah printing bad news - the guy who wrote that will probably be in prison by now...

Over 5.53 to the quid now.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on March 19, 2018, 14:00:54 PM




             5. 55 And rising.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: madmart on March 19, 2018, 17:26:26 PM




             5. 55 And rising.
6 to the £ when?

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on March 19, 2018, 19:17:43 PM
Have recent visitors to Fethiye/Calis noticed price increases in shops/restaurants/bars/hotel rooms etc. as a result of the weaker Lira?

....plus what's the price of an Efes?  8) 8)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: pompeylee on March 20, 2018, 04:50:35 AM
Hi Stuart,  no not noticed any yet & can still get an efes between 8.99 & 16TL, lira is 5.5194 today although I saw advertised for 5.60 in cappadocia,  will try to post some (there's loads it was great) pics later.
(https://s9.postimg.org/f5rk66i63/20180317_184825.jpg) (https://postimg.org/image/f5rk66i63/)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 22, 2018, 09:40:00 AM
Expect another record low this afternoon or tomorrow morning, against the quid that is. 

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 22, 2018, 09:57:16 AM
6 to the £ when?
The Financial Times is reporting fears of a "depreciation spiral" for Turkey since it has lost 3.4% against USD this month - and the dollar hasn't been having a particularly good time. One economist is quoted as saying the lira is 15% overvalued. So today's 5.55 might be heading well over 6 in the not too distant future.
[Sorry, I cannot reproduce FT link to this story].


Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on March 22, 2018, 13:18:23 PM



   Now I wonder who will get the blame for this lot.??  He's running out of suspects              ??? ???
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 22, 2018, 13:44:56 PM
Now isn't this pretty?

(https://s9.postimg.org/aptkdud97/Lira_March18.png) (https://postimg.org/image/aptkdud97/)

Compare with the first post on this thread in October 2014.




Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Kevin Sowten on March 22, 2018, 14:39:39 PM
Funnily enough that first post was made 3 days before we moved here (Glad it didn't go 60% the other way  ;D )
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on March 22, 2018, 18:17:05 PM
Now isn't this pretty?

(https://s9.postimg.org/aptkdud97/Lira_March18.png) (https://postimg.org/image/aptkdud97/)

Compare with the first post on this thread in October 2014.







Or in Thai - hahahahaha
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on March 23, 2018, 06:54:06 AM
Hit 5.60 to the £ on XE this morning. Got 5.54 in the bank, and showing 5.48 in Dikmen change office.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 23, 2018, 09:45:36 AM
Was actually as low as 5.65.  Worrying times.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 23, 2018, 10:15:45 AM
The dollar briefly broke through the 4 lira line but is now back below at 3.965. In the past the Central Bank, it seems to me, has striven to keep TRY on the low side of 4. Will it be throwing money at this today?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on March 23, 2018, 19:51:10 PM




                  5. 65 at the mo'
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: lissa on March 23, 2018, 20:52:47 PM
Not good for us earning lira. ☹️
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 26, 2018, 18:24:48 PM
Even more bad news for you, another record low against sterling today, 5.68 and the dollar broke the "4 barrier" on Friday.  Slight recovery but nothing to suggest the slide wont continue.

Looks like the euro is heading towards 5, another milestone the TCB wont be happy about.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 28, 2018, 11:19:30 AM
The dollar has peaked through 4 three times this morning. I wonder if the markets are testing the Central Bank's resolve.

(https://s9.postimg.org/lsq9a4unf/Screenshot_13.png) (https://postimg.org/image/lsq9a4unf/)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on March 28, 2018, 11:34:09 AM
At least the TCB has a bit of money to throw at the problem.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-central-banks-net-profit-soars-in-2017-129359
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 28, 2018, 11:40:20 AM
Nice typo in that article: "Last year, the bank transferred some 6.41 liras of its profit to the Treasury". Whoopee!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on March 28, 2018, 13:08:23 PM
How do you know it's a typo...?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on March 28, 2018, 13:50:31 PM
Are you stirring a scandal on where the rest of the 6.41 billion lira went? Its not in Spain's Islas Caja de Zapatos, is it?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 04, 2018, 09:45:59 AM
I found this Al Monitor article interesting. It highlights Turkey's booming economy in 2017 with the second highest growth rate in the OECD. But if you measure the GDP in $ terms it actually shrank in the same period. And with inflation and unemployment both in double figures many Turks have not done well in the boom. The "boom" was driven by the Government's encouragement of borrowing and based on consumer spending bringing in foreign imports rather than new jobs in Turkey. This has resulted in Turkey's growing debt much of which is in $ which were nearly 22% more expensive to repay by the end of 2017 due to currency weakness. This leaves a fragile economy, continuing pressure on exchange rates and a reluctance by foreign capital to invest in Turkey. The article concludes:   "Political uncertainty is the main reason foreign investors hesitate to put money in Turkey. A critical election cycle is looming in 2019, but a wait-and-see attitude prevails on financial markets because of the talk of early elections. This reason alone could prompt the government to bring the polls forward — to fall this year, for instance — to end the uncertainty." (Mustafa Sonmez, Turkish Economist)

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/04/turkey-dark-side-of-glowing-growth-rate.html (https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/04/turkey-dark-side-of-glowing-growth-rate.html)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 05, 2018, 10:30:02 AM
It looks as though the Central Bank is unwilling or unable to protect the lira from further falls. The dollar has settled over 4.00, the euro is at 4.95 and the pound on 5.67. The usual CB mechanism for strengthening the currency is by raising interest rates but Erdogan ended March by insisting: "Interest rates are the main reason behind all evils in the economy,” and is now demanding a "competitive lira" by which he means an attractively weak lira to make Turkish goods more competitive internationally. I think those taking £s to Turkey can expect to be getting far more ₺ in return - even if they have to spend far more of them than they did last year.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-govt-working-on-plan-to-lower-interest-rates-sources-129789 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-govt-working-on-plan-to-lower-interest-rates-sources-129789)


https://en.trend.az/world/turkey/2882401.html (https://en.trend.az/world/turkey/2882401.html)

https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-currency/turkish-lira-weakens-to-near-record-low-on-interest-rate-worries-idUSL5N1RI15O (https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-currency/turkish-lira-weakens-to-near-record-low-on-interest-rate-worries-idUSL5N1RI15O)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 05, 2018, 11:30:13 AM
He's always been against high interest rates but his perspective is more personal than him having a great grasp of international or domestic finance issues, at least thats my opinion.

The problem with a weak lira is that while it does make Turkish exports more attractive, it hits the man in the street far more than it does those in their gilded palaces.  Higher rents, increased prices for imported goods, reduced ability to travel outside Turkey etc.  A lot of business in Turkey is done with hard currencies such as the dollar and the euro, no-one wants to use the lira due to its volatility.  Yes, Turkey does need to reduce its trade deficit but there are many other ways to do it - allowing the lira to tank is a poor choice, if indeed it is a "choice".

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 05, 2018, 14:06:16 PM
He's always been against high interest rates but his perspective is more personal than him having a great grasp of international or domestic finance issues, at least thats my opinion.
I suspect his perspective is also influenced by the Islamic injunction against usury, around which he attempts to wrap a, not very plausible, economic cloak.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 05, 2018, 14:19:26 PM
That's what I meant  :) maybe I should have said "personal and religious".

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 06, 2018, 15:53:44 PM
Broke 5.70 to the quid now.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 06, 2018, 18:44:18 PM
All is revealed...  there are rumours flying about that the Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Şimşek is considering resigning.  He's the chap who is responsible for the economy   :)

Al Monitor made a very telling comment, "An ethnic Kurd who had enthusiastically embraced Erdogan’s now shelved overtures to the Kurds, he is known to oppose the president’s unorthodox views on the economy".  They also said that he has been "persuaded" to stay on, for the "good of the country and the good of the cause".  In this context, "cause" is seen as Turkeys Islamist movement.

Full articles here: Al Monitor (https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/04/rumors-mehmet-simsek-resigns.html)    HDN (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-blasts-central-bank-over-interest-rate-policy-129826)


JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 09, 2018, 15:22:57 PM
The lira continues to notch up milestones on its downward journey. The £ passed 5 back in November, the dollar hit 4 last week and now the euro scores 5. Next up: the pound hits 6?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on April 09, 2018, 15:27:06 PM
Next up: the pound hits 6?

Well the £ just hit 5.75
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 09, 2018, 15:29:02 PM
Next up: the pound hits 6?

Unless the TCB do something drastic then yes, 6.00 it'll be and not that far away.  The lira has gone from 5.27 to 5.75 in the space of four weeks, terrible state of affairs for many businesses in Turkey.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on April 09, 2018, 21:07:45 PM
TUI Tiverton (Devon) today gave me 5.35 Lira to the pound. I went there 'cos I needed some "arrival" money.

I have US dollars and Euros to exchange when I get there. I will use a Fethiye bank.

TUI initially offfered 5.05 but when I told them that the Post Office rates were better they went from 5.05 to 5.35 Lira to the pound.

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Toky on April 09, 2018, 22:31:45 PM
Does anyone know the exchange rate of the US $ to Lira?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 09, 2018, 23:32:40 PM
xe.com

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 10, 2018, 13:55:12 PM
Next up: the pound hits 6?

Well the £ just hit 5.75

Well, one day later and it's broken 5.81.  Freefall is the term that comes to mind, against sterling certainly.  Oh wait, 4.10 against the dollar and 5.06 to the euro.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 10, 2018, 14:48:02 PM
Wow! Today down 1.7% against the £, slightly more against € and 1.4% against $. Erdogan is going to get his wish for a "competitive" lira at a run.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 10, 2018, 14:54:04 PM
Now 5.85 and still dropping.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on April 10, 2018, 15:26:21 PM




          The wee fella has asked AKP officials not to discuss the state of the economy.          How strange.      ???
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on April 10, 2018, 17:03:20 PM
He will let,yourself and Colwyn do it Ha Ha!

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on April 11, 2018, 10:03:03 AM





           5.87          ???
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: philrose on April 11, 2018, 12:47:31 PM
5.92 and still falling....
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 11, 2018, 16:14:15 PM
JohnF keeps reminding us of how the exchange rate affects business by making it more expensive to pay back on foreign loans and investment. Two articles in today's Hurriyet give examples of the importance of this. One reports that two huge Turkish companies want to restructure their debt: the media giant, Dogan Holdings, and the biggest sweet company, Ulker, that both have around $6 billion debt they are finding hard to repay. So I had to find out a bit more about "corporate debt restructuring". Apparently it is a milder alternative to bankruptcy - so it is big stuff. It involves trying to get your debt holders to agree to lowering your debt and/or letting you repay it over a longer period. To persuade them to do this you could swap debt for shares or warn your lenders that you might go broke and not be able to pay anything if they don't help you out of the hole.

How did giant Turkish companies get into this mess with 7% growth last year? Dogan gives a good example. If the interest rate it pays rises by 1% it has to pay 6 million lira; if the $ exchange rate rises by 1% it costs 116 million lira. Since 2012 the $ exchange rate has risen by 113%. Ouch!

With escalating hostilities between Erdogan and Deputy PM Simsek over the issue of interest rates cracks may be appearing in the AKP Government. It may be the best hope of getting rid of Tayyip in 2019 (or sooner) - even though that is currently not a realistic prospect.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/ahu-ozyurt/fasten-your-seatbelts-storm-is-approaching-130095 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/ahu-ozyurt/fasten-your-seatbelts-storm-is-approaching-130095)

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/ugur-gurses/fallout-from-turkeys-currency-depreciation-credit-restructuring-130092 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/ugur-gurses/fallout-from-turkeys-currency-depreciation-credit-restructuring-130092)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 11, 2018, 16:44:40 PM
Oops! The extra to pay is 60million TK versus 116million. The article doesn't state over what time period, but the point is that every % on exchange costs double that on interest.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Daffodil2017 on April 12, 2018, 07:57:27 AM
5.889 today .16 pence for a Turkish lira!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on April 12, 2018, 14:12:19 PM
Its all a conspiracy by those Outside Powers said Erdogan  today.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-blasts-investors-amid-tumbling-turkish-lira-130212
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 12, 2018, 18:56:50 PM
Today RTE says that the lira is loo low and “The rise in exchange rates has no reasonable, logical or regular explanation,” A couple of days ago he was saying it was too high and that Turkey needs a "competitive currency". Difficult to keep up isn't it!

P.S. Wazz wiv the cool dude in the shades look?

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on April 16, 2018, 15:04:43 PM




      When your'e a financial genius you have to look cool man.  He leaves all the opposition in the shade (or prison)


        5. 89 at present
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 16, 2018, 15:11:30 PM
Hangover shades 8)

He was out on the batter and did at least two bottles of raki, smoked forty fags and then....

Better shut up now, said enough to get five years in Silivri prison   :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on April 16, 2018, 15:26:28 PM



      His kids have gone off the radar. ??          ???
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 26, 2018, 12:14:15 PM
Keeping low profile I think Kevin, under orders from "the party" probably. 

Anyway, interest rates up by .75% yesterday and that coupled with the election announcement has certainly helped the lira.  Sitting at 5.68 against the squid and back under 5 to the euro.  Dollar still strong though, looks like it doesn't want to go under 4 to the lira!

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on April 26, 2018, 14:18:13 PM
Better shut up now, said enough to get five years in Silivri prison    :)
What's Spain's recent record like on extraditing people to Turkey on terrorism charges?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on April 26, 2018, 14:37:40 PM
I'd have thought Turkey's got enough nutcases of it's own without having to import them.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on April 26, 2018, 15:05:58 PM
Better shut up now, said enough to get five years in Silivri prison     :)
What's Spain's recent record like on extraditing people to Turkey on terrorism charges?

Very good actually.  They've refused the majority of requests from Ankara, usually for writers and journalists - who are all in fact members of several terrorists organisation, all at the same time.  Or they've simply been nasty to that lovely man in charge.

 :P

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 02, 2018, 10:17:26 AM
S&P, in an unscheduled meeting, took the emergency step of pushing Turkey's sovereign debt (the sum of government borrowing) further into "junk" status. S&P said it was concerned with Turkey's overheating economy riding on a credit-fueled wave and lack of control by the Central Bank. The AKP has stirred this pot by promising a $6billion handout bonanza ahead of June's election. I suspect the lira will be tumbling back down to record low levels in the next few weeks.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 03, 2018, 10:54:54 AM
Lira didn't take long: passed 4.2 to $ this morning. € steadily over 5 again and £ catching up.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on May 03, 2018, 12:31:12 PM
£5.70 on XE at 12:30pm
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on May 03, 2018, 16:41:13 PM
£5.70 for what
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on May 03, 2018, 16:50:18 PM
£5.70 for what

Oops - 5.70 TL for £1 ????
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 08, 2018, 10:06:52 AM
Yesterday the Central Bank got nervous about the weakness of the lira against the dollar which had got to 4.2901. So it cut back on the amount of foreign currency each bank can hold as part of its reserves. The lira recovered to 4.25 in reaction. Unfortunately, today the lira sank even lower and hit 4.3:$ another ¾% down. Is anybody going to suggest an interest rate increase before the election? ........ Thought not.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-central-bank-takes-reserve-requirements-step-to-shore-up-lira-131429 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-central-bank-takes-reserve-requirements-step-to-shore-up-lira-131429)


Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 08, 2018, 10:32:06 AM
I think what happened with the lira (after election announcement) a couple of weeks ago was not dissimilar to the "new manager bounce" often referred to in football when a poorly performing manager is sacked and a fresh face brought in.

It's still well over five to the euro, and you are correct about the dollar - record low this morning.  It is slowly but surely losing strength against sterling and currently sitting at 5.80, down from 5.54 in the days immediately subsequent to the election announcement.  It wouldn't surprise me to see 5.90+ against sterling be the end of the week and 4.40+ against the dollar.  On the other hand the TCB might pull a rabbit out of a hat...   :)

One of the main issues appears to be the central banks inability to curb inflation, currently sitting just under 11%.  Standard and Poors also downgraded Turkey's rating again, and amongst the areas of concern they cited the consistently missed inflation targets.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 09, 2018, 07:51:02 AM
Not a good day for the lira yesterday. It didn't take till the end of the week for 5.90, in fact depending on todays trading there could be record lows against all three major currencies.

Sitting at 5.91 earlier this morning before recovering to 5.88 against the squid and 4.37 against the dollar.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 09, 2018, 09:16:35 AM
Central Bank is buying up huge amounts of lira to boost the currency. It is working  so far (about half an hour) with $ and £ down about 1%. And going lower. Will it last? I doubt it.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 09, 2018, 09:24:57 AM
Given that the treasury had an $8.4Bn deficit  in the period Jan - Apr 2018, not sure how long they can sustain a major purchasing campaign.  Mibbe they should ask the wee man for a bung?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: kevin3 on May 09, 2018, 09:42:03 AM



    The wee fella is today warning that Trump's announcement will cause a financial crisis worldwide.


    That's his excuse sorted. 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on May 09, 2018, 10:43:05 AM
Not to worry, Reg is going to sort out this economic mess at 14.00 today.


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-summons-urgent-economy-meeting-as-turkish-lira-plunges-131547
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 09, 2018, 12:44:46 PM
Bloomberg says:"Given that Simsek and Cetinkaya are attending the meeting, they may “be able to convince President Erdogan that the most efficient way to stabilize the lira and to reduce the risk of a full-scale financial crisis” is to raise interest rates substantially, said Piotr Matys, a strategist at Rabobank, who says a hike of at least 200 basis points* is needed."[* i.e. +2%]. It has happened before after an Erdogan emergency economic meeting apparently - but only by a rise of 0.25%. Difficult to see him swallowing 2% with six and a half weeks to go before the election


https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2018/05/09/erdogan-said-to-summon-officials-as-lira-slides-to-record-low (https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2018/05/09/erdogan-said-to-summon-officials-as-lira-slides-to-record-low)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 11, 2018, 17:36:11 PM
Erdogan's brilliant, but secret, masterplan to save the lira has not started very well. The £ is back above 5.8 (near to 5.84), $ back over 4.3 and € touched a record breaking 5.15. Perhaps he'll be able to hush it up.

P.S. Oh! Just read that Erdogan has been up to his usual Friday tricks saying that "interest rates are the mother of all evils". And then he threw in an attack on “foreign exchange speculators, interest rate (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/interest%20rate) lobbies and enemies of Turkey (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/Turkey) under the guise of credit rating firms”. This was after one of minister saying yesterday that Turkey had never gone to war with the market. Well it has now!

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-again-blasts-interest-rates-as-the-mother-of-all-evil-131702
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 15, 2018, 10:32:30 AM
On his visit to the UK Erdogan confirmed his views on the economy: "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/Erdo%C4%9Fan) said he plans to take greater control of the economy after presidential elections next month and the central bank will have to take note of what the president says and act accordingly." After he has won the election “I will take the responsibility as the indisputable head of the executive in respect of the steps to be taken and decisions on these issues”.

The lira lost another half percent this morning.


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-erdogan-plans-to-take-greater-control-of-economy-131813
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on May 15, 2018, 11:44:31 AM
Erdogan's brilliant, but secret, masterplan to save the lira has not started very well. The £ is back above 5.8


Now up to 5.96 this morning on XE.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 15, 2018, 12:25:53 PM
Now 5.98. 6 at some point today?

Oh, yes. Just a minute ago
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on May 15, 2018, 14:29:39 PM
Omg its hit 6 on XE now!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Laura B on May 15, 2018, 14:42:54 PM
Helped no doubt by this statement

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-erdogan-plans-to-take-greater-control-of-economy-131813
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on May 15, 2018, 18:03:11 PM
He will of course not see that the very idea of him controlling economic policy causes the TL to weaken and therefore viewed by the world as not the best idea.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 16, 2018, 10:47:13 AM
The dollar first hit the 4:TL mark on 23rd March. Now, less than 8 weeks later, it has reached 4.5 - down 12.5% in two months. Crisis? What crisis?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 17, 2018, 10:59:50 AM
Strong statements have been made in defence of the lira: "The CBRT [Central Bank (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/Central%20Bank) of the Republic of Turkey (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/Turkey)] is closely monitoring the unhealthy price formations in the markets,” the bank said in a statement."Necessary steps will be taken, also considering the impact of these developments on the inflation outlook,” the bank added. So there! When Erdogan met with investors in London they came away saying they were "baffled" and "flabbergasted" with RTE's policies and couldn't understand how he expected them to work. Meanwhile Deputy PM Simsek (and former banker) said he hoped for "political pragmatism" in the future - wonderful store of optimism that Simsek's got so he can continue to draw upon it after so many setbacks.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ankara-seeks-to-defend-lira-amid-concerns-dollar-rally-131897 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ankara-seeks-to-defend-lira-amid-concerns-dollar-rally-131897)




Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 17, 2018, 13:10:52 PM
When Erdogan met with investors in London they came away saying they were "baffled" and "flabbergasted" with RTE's policies and couldn't understand how he expected them to work.

That's always going to be the problem when he meets folks who do actually understand how a country's economy is meant to work, and all he does is use shoeboxes as a measurement of performance...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on May 17, 2018, 21:55:09 PM
6.029 on xe.com at 21.45 today.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on May 18, 2018, 19:18:58 PM
On this day 5 years ago we transferred cash from Turkey back to UK, hugely irritated by the soaring TL/£ exchange rate.

2.73
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 21, 2018, 11:35:36 AM
The lira had a bad week last week losing 3.5% against the dollar. It is already 1.5% down at the start of this week. Also down 1% against £.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 21, 2018, 12:46:52 PM
Dropping like a stone just now, 6.13 against sterling and 4.57 to the dollar.  From what I've read, the biggest issue is inflation - crunch time coming up when this months figures are released.

But don't worry, the wee fella has it all under control.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 22, 2018, 12:20:42 PM
OK £ has got 6.2. Just had to stay there until July 1 for my prediction to come right.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 22, 2018, 13:06:38 PM
...and in a flash it's 6.25, although just as I started replying here it's recovered a little bit.

This must be a concern ahead of the election, it wouldn't be good for the ruling party to head into an election on the back of the economy seriously tanking.  Lucky all the "gifts" that are being handed out are in lira I suppose.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 22, 2018, 17:48:01 PM
If things carry on downhill at the same pace as they have done since the dollar hit 4 on March 23rd, then the dollar will 5 just days before Round One of the election. That'll take some explaining from AKP.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on May 23, 2018, 08:17:35 AM
From around 4.40/$ to 4.80/$ in a single week. Spinning out of control.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on May 23, 2018, 08:53:13 AM
And up to 6.44tl to the £ on XE this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on May 23, 2018, 09:28:36 AM
6.53 a few minutes ago
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 23, 2018, 09:38:28 AM
Only one person to blame for this situation.

Fitch, a credit referencing agency, stated yesterday:

“Comments from the Turkish president raise the possibility that discretionary policy making and policy predictability will come under pressure after June’s elections”

Basically, the wee fella came out with his mantra about lowering interest rates despite inflation heading north like an express train - but the killer blow was his statement that he intends to be "more proactive" in shaping the central banks policy.  A little bit like letting a five year old drive a Maserati.

One wonders if emergency financial measures may be on the cards any time soon... :(

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Taddy on May 23, 2018, 09:39:40 AM
 :o  I am going in just over 3 weeks. Bought some Lira to tide us over the first 3 days. Definitely not buying any more Lira in the Uk now. who knows where this will end up. 
Just hoping it will attract late bookers with these rates over the summer.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on May 23, 2018, 09:43:31 AM
Dolar 4.80 is now trending worldwide on Twitter this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 23, 2018, 09:55:39 AM
Actually it hit 4.89 a wee while ago, but has recovered to 4.84.

Five by close of business highly likely I reckon.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 23, 2018, 10:20:30 AM

One wonders if emergency financial measures may be on the cards any time soon... :(

JF
Any suggestions as what these may be? Will any big business CEOs be bold enough to suggest to RTE that he compromises over the short term.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 23, 2018, 10:48:55 AM
The obvious one is an immediate hike interest rates, but the due to the stubbornness of the wee fella someone would need big balls to implement that against his wishes, again!  It's what Russia did a few years ago when the rouble went south and, along with other financial measures, slowed things down.  That said, I don't think the rouble has really recovered to previous values.

I wouldn't like to speculate on what other measures the government/central bank may decide, if they do anything at all right now.  They may simply try to ride it out.

Like Keith, I'm just glad we no longer have any assets in Turkey and got out at a decent (relatively speaking) rate.  When we sold the apartment in Karagozler last year the deal was priced and sold in sterling.

The few hundred lira in my Finans account is our only casualty. 

JF

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on May 23, 2018, 11:25:25 AM
This is all making me rather edgy, I appreciate tourists are happy to be getting more tl for their £...we do still have assets in Turkey invested years ago, have never had the need to change back to gbp, if the “wee fella” ( I love that name for him!) does decide with his well known stubborness to ride things out and take no action, if we have no need to change back will our “assets” be ok? Weve tried to get to grips with understanding the effects of it all but we just dont get it! What part exactly does the up and coming election play in the tl being on the up?   :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 23, 2018, 12:18:47 PM

Apparently there was another meeting of the brains trust of Turkey's Economic Management Team on Monday. Seems to have worked as well as last week's meeting. The $ topped out at 4.929 this morning before it fell back to 4.84 - presumably due to Central Bank buying back lira with dollars.
What part exactly does the up and coming election play in the tl being on the up?      :)
In the election run up Erdogan has made it inescapably clear what he intends to do when he gets his hands on supreme power. He intends to lower interest rates. International investors do not share his view that this will lower inflation. Instead they see inflation sky-rocketing and the currency being reduced to near rubbish. Obviously they don't want to hold lira so they are selling it off and nobody wants to buy it except the Turkish Central Bank. Thus the value of the lira drops even more.

Over the short term what makes things worse for the lira is that Erdogan has gone and told everyone that he is not going to accept the use of what nearly all conventional economists think is the strongest CB weapon - i.e. raising CB interest rates to cool things down. So everyone in the market now knows the lira will not be effectively defended. Great day for speculators: they know which way the lira go (down); they can't lose - unless CB boss Cetinkaya goes against Erdogan and risks going to prison as a "terrorist".


Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on May 23, 2018, 12:38:06 PM
Thank you very much Colwyn for your post very interesting, I kind of get some of it now I think! I knew RE wants lower interest rates and I also knew if he was to raise the rate it would help the falling tl...I guess it will end up being his way or the high way and b@@@@r the business’s etc this is having an impact on!
I guess for now Im pretty much screwed!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 23, 2018, 12:44:45 PM
It depends what your assets are, I guess. Having loads of cash in lira deposit accounts wouldn't be good.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 23, 2018, 13:37:52 PM
Like Colwyn said, the folks who are in a precarious position are those with large amounts of lira in the bank or other lira investments, who, at some time in the immediate future may want to convert some of that lira into sterling (or euro or whatever).  If you're in Turkey for the duration, then all you have to contend with is inflation eroding your capital.

I've seen (on other forums) folks saying that they don't care about the exchange rate as they're still getting 10%+ interest.  All good until you realise that inflation is in double digits which kinda wipes out those gains, after the tax man has had his slice.  My OH was working in Istanbul during the crazy times where a loaf of bread could change price between you picking it and paying for it, lets hope it doesn't get to that stage.

Short to medium term I don't think folks who own property have much to worry about (purely my opinion) from an economic perspective, unless they want to sell up.  The problem then is that their perceived (sterling) value of their property is unlikely to be met.  Of course there'll always be exceptions, but when the economy is in turmoil property prices tend to fall.

While I would urge caution to anyone considering purchasing a property in Turkey right now, if we hadn't sold Karagozler last year I wouldn't be overly concerned - that said, I'm still pleased that we did. 

JF
 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 23, 2018, 14:27:56 PM
Market analysts are calling for a Şimşek strike. [Sorry, couldn't resist the obvious pun].

Tim Ash, an emerging markets strategist at Bluebay Asset management and long-time Turkey watcher, called on Wednesday for the country’s top economic officials to threaten resignation in order to avert a crisis. Deputy prime minister Mehmet Simsek, finance minister Naci Agbal and central bank governor Murat Cetinkaya needed to “put their jobs on the line for the good of the country” and “tell Erdogan that he is wrong on rates,” he wrote on Twitter. “There is still time to stabilise things but [interest rates] need to be hiked.” (Financial Times, 23/05/2018).
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 23, 2018, 17:24:39 PM
Turkey Central Bank says it has held an emergency meeting on interest rates. Lira mounts recovery on this news. $ and £ now over 2% down on day's trading. But markets still very volatile. I can't find any statement on the outcome of the meeting. Up 0.25% on interest rates isn't going to impress anyone; up 2% might just about do it. More importantly it shows CB willing to defy the President.


Wow! Announcement just made. Interest rate up 3% ! Erdogan will be boiling; good idea for aides to keep out of his way for a while.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on May 23, 2018, 17:37:13 PM
Rate just took an immediate plummet!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on May 23, 2018, 17:38:00 PM
Its tl account! Both you guys posts are interesting and informative, I have no plans to convert it to any other currency so from what I read its not all bad though Im wondering whether to go on a massive shopping spree next month!
Wow good to hear about the chaps who have stood up to T.W.F   :)( i soo love that name!)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on May 23, 2018, 17:39:59 PM
Wow it has hasnt it Keith Iv checked it around 6 times today, so that little hike in the interest rate has defo done something   ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Kevin Sowten on May 23, 2018, 18:11:36 PM
"In an extraordinary Monetary Policy Committee meeting late on May 23, the Central Bank increased the late liquidity window lending rate to 16.5 percent from 13.5 percent."
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 23, 2018, 18:54:35 PM
That they did. I but I reckon they checked out this topic just to make sure they were doing the right thing  ;)

JF
Title: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on May 23, 2018, 19:26:42 PM
Experience shows these are all short term fixes. It’s worth bearing in mind that if and when the rate soars off again, the ‘wee fella’ will consider that to be proof that he was correct - that raising interest rates isn’t the solution.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 23, 2018, 19:29:43 PM
If he'd simply leave it all to Simsek he'd have it sorted in six months.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on May 23, 2018, 19:58:01 PM
Do you think he might?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 23, 2018, 20:19:47 PM
Well, he's not running in the election and some are suggesting that it's because he'll be joining the cabinet if the wee fella gets back in - elected members have to resign now to join cabinet. So who knows, he's got the skills if left alone.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on May 23, 2018, 20:20:04 PM
6.09 now
Title: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on May 23, 2018, 20:35:05 PM
That’s nothing - a 3% interest rate hike hasn’t brought the exchange rate down to what it was last September, or 6 weeks ago, it has only brought it down to the rate it was the day before yesterday..:
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 24, 2018, 08:29:56 AM
Yes, you're right.  Too little, too late comes to mind.

Its falling again this morning, against all major currencies.  I hate to agree with the wee fella, but I reckon some currency traders smell blood and may see opportunities to make a lot of money off a weakening lira.  However, they're not doing it because its Turkey, they're doing simply to make money. 

Just going back to Şimşek for a sec, he's always struck me as being a smart guy working within a government that very often doesn't let the smart guys do what they do best. Unfortunately, the markets are all spooked by the possibility of the wee fella being more hands on, they know he's a bit of a nugget when it comes to the economy.  So it doesn't matter who ends up in charge of finance and the economy in the cabinet, it looks like he'll always have the final say.  Not good.

Here's hoping we don't end up back where we started in a day or so, although there are some casual visitors to Turkey who will no doubt be rubbing their hands at all the extra liras to their pounds.

JF
 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on May 24, 2018, 09:24:37 AM
Experience shows these are all short term fixes.

Seems so. The banks were giving 6.05 tl to the  £ on Tuesday morning. Today following the late liqiuidity rate hike, it was giving 6.20 tl to the £.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 24, 2018, 12:40:49 PM
 The fix doesn't seem to have worked. The lira has given back over half of its post-hike gains losing 4.5% to dollar and pound this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on May 24, 2018, 12:59:03 PM
Just checked on XE and it appears to be on the rise again! :(
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 24, 2018, 14:56:31 PM
So what do the Central Bank and the AKP Economic Management Team do now? They have thrown 3% at the problem and the lira is still in the run. Chuck another 2% after the first chunk to prove they are standing behind the currency? Can you remember what happened in the UK on "Black Wednesday" in 1992 when George Soros walked away with a speculative £1bn and Norman Lamont (one of those "safe hands" Tory Chancellors) cost us £3.4bn in a few hours? Or do they hope Erdogan comes out and says he supports all measures taken by Turkey's independent Central Bank? If CB had stepped in with 3% a week ago there probably wouldn't be a problem now. But doubts and suspicions have built up in the market and, possibly, the speculative vultures (today's George Soros'es) are circulating. Oh dear.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 24, 2018, 15:05:59 PM
As I said before, too little, too late.

You can see the same pattern developing against sterling:

(https://s7.postimg.cc/ha6x95j2f/Screenshot-2018-5-24_XE_GBP_TRY_Currency_Chart_British_Pound_to.png) (https://postimg.cc/image/ha6x95j2f/)

Wouldn't surprise me if we're right back where we started by tomorrow afternoon.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: LeeGlo on May 24, 2018, 23:05:47 PM
TRNC (Northern Cyprus) are so concerned about the TL that they are considering changing their currency

https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-lira/turkish-cypriots-consider-abandoning-sinking-lira
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on May 24, 2018, 23:59:47 PM
That's very interesting - I wonder if they can? Never really understood how they relate to Ankara...
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 25, 2018, 00:41:28 AM
False news  :)

Constitution doesn't allow for it. Good column inches though...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 25, 2018, 09:37:41 AM
Reuters is reporting the CB rate hike as a victory for Şimşek. Together with close colleagues, he first persuaded PM Yirdirim of the need for the hike, who then persuaded Erdogan to put aside his opposition (or at least voicing it).

https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-economy-primeminister/rpt-as-lira-tumbled-turkeys-prime-minister-won-erdogan-over-for-rate-hike-idUSL5N1SW0Z4 (https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-economy-primeminister/rpt-as-lira-tumbled-turkeys-prime-minister-won-erdogan-over-for-rate-hike-idUSL5N1SW0Z4)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 25, 2018, 17:04:28 PM
The lira has finished the week well; up 0.7% against $ and over 1% against € and £. Looks like Simsek's assurances that the Government will back any further actions the CB deems necessary have quietened things down. It may work - if Erdogan is able to keep quiet about the evils of interest in advance of the elections (a pretty big "if" that).
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 25, 2018, 17:19:36 PM
I think he'll keep his mouth shut for a bit, the whole slide was on the back of his comments in respect of the economy and how he was going to be more hands on.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on May 28, 2018, 12:36:46 PM
The lira has finished the week well; up 0.7% against $ and over 1% against € and £. Looks like Simsek's assurances that the Government will back any further actions the CB deems necessary have quietened things down.
Also started the week well. 4.56 to the Dollar and 6.08 to the Pound. Simsek's calming influence.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-lira-firms-as-deputy-pm-simsek-central-bank-chief-meet-investors-132460
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 28, 2018, 19:48:05 PM
Under 6.00 to the quid by early/middle next week. Mibbe  :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 30, 2018, 10:18:53 AM
Didn't take that long.

5.97 this morning  :) and that's despite Moody's cutting their growth forecast for Turkey.

Looks a little bit like he is leaving Şimşek and Çetinkaya (TCB governor) to get on with the job.  Only possible bump in the road ahead is the election, and from the lira's perspective a resounding victory for AKP will likely further strengthen it.  However, a hung parliament may send it off again.  Who really knows  :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 30, 2018, 10:24:23 AM
Lira up 1.5% against £,$ and € this morning. For those playing Scunner's little game he has craftily made the target date on the middle Sunday between Round One and Round Two (if there is a second round).
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on May 30, 2018, 11:04:03 AM
Well, my 5.45 is looking good right now  ;)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on May 30, 2018, 19:33:31 PM
EUROPEAN banks fear the dramatic crash of the Turkish lira could spark a crisis reminiscent of the one that hit Wall Street financial institutions 20 years ago.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/967131/europe-banks-crisis-turkey-lira-crashing-us-dollar-recep-tayyip-erdoga
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Phil on May 31, 2018, 09:46:35 AM
It all sounds a bit Greek..........
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 31, 2018, 10:02:30 AM
He didn't say whether Greece was involved but Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu has stated it was an organized campaign masterminded abroad but he was not yet ready to name names.

“When it is time, we will announce [the details]. See how the credit rating agencies decrease their ratings?” the foreign minister asked, referring to Moody’s recent decision (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/moodys-slashes-turkish-growth-forecast-to-2-5-percent-132579) that slashed forecasts for Turkey’s economic growth, citing deepening market pressure and growing risks. They began working on how they could demolish Turkey through its economy (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/economy) after the July 15 coup attempt failed. We have managed to repel these attacks with minimum damage by taking precautions,” Çavuşoğlu said.“Some countries are in this scheme, as well as financial institutions and the interest rate lobby. These include some Muslim countries, too. I will not name names here, I am only drawing the framework.”

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-fm-accuses-some-muslim-countries-for-trying-to-demolish-economy-132594 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-fm-accuses-some-muslim-countries-for-trying-to-demolish-economy-132594)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on May 31, 2018, 11:35:47 AM
I don't know whether it has anything to do with the Foreign Minister's intervention but the £ is back over 6 and the $ over 4.5. Şimşek must be busy devising exquisite tortures for Çavuşoğlu. We could have a UK versus  Turkey contest as to which has the barmiest FM.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 01, 2018, 09:58:33 AM
Lira down 2% so far today.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 01, 2018, 10:21:44 AM
Bugger.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on June 04, 2018, 09:30:20 AM
Turkey's annual inflation  figure rose 1.3% in May to take it up to 12.15%. Not had any major effect on the lira rate, yet.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-annual-inflation-at-10-85-pct-in-april-132754
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 04, 2018, 10:40:10 AM
No, but it will.

Some commentators are now suggesting Turkey may need an IMF bail out, comparing its economic situation to Argentina. 

This was in Al-Monitor (https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/05/turkey-is-turkish-economy-heading-for-imf-bailout.html) a few days ago: "Is Turkey on course to follow Argentina’s footsteps? Korkut Boratav, one of Turkey’s most respected economists, said a run to the IMF is almost inevitable for Turkey in 2019, regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections."

Lets hope he is wrong.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on June 07, 2018, 12:33:36 PM
The TCB has hiked interest rates again, this time by another 1.25%.


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-central-bank-makes-decisive-hike-to-main-interest-rate-lira-firms-132940
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 07, 2018, 15:49:21 PM
Given the lira a boost, up against the three main currencies.  Heading for under 6 to the quid, sitting at 6.01 just now.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 08, 2018, 11:26:23 AM
Looks like the markets just don't have confidence in the lira, as despite the rate increase, it's slipping back.

I think the recent downgrading of seventeen Turkish banks by Moody's has had an impact, coupled with a further downgrade of Turkey's sovereign rating today - as the FT puts it:

Ratings agency Moody’s cut Turkey’s sovereign rating further into junk territory overnight, citing a continued weakening of its economic and political institutions and the increased risks from its wide current account deficit.

Not good.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on June 11, 2018, 10:13:48 AM

On Saturday Guven Sak's article in Hurriyet outlined Turkey's problem in having a very high private debt from years of funding investment from foreign capital. This was OK in an era of Quantitative Easing with lots of cheap money available but the world is now moving to Quantative Tightening and Turkey needs a to lower its indebtedness. He suggests that Turkey needs a stabilization package to manage this (like Argentina); but it doesn't have one. He concluded: "That is why a simple rate hike is not enough for the lira (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/search/lira) to stabilize, even in the short term".
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/guven-sak/whats-the-matter-with-the-turkish-lira-133025 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/guven-sak/whats-the-matter-with-the-turkish-lira-133025)

It didn't take long to confirm his view: the lira is down 1.5% against the dollar this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on June 12, 2018, 10:17:53 AM
Dollars gone up, after Trumps  agreement with Rocket Man.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on June 20, 2018, 12:13:20 PM




Looks a little bit like he is leaving Şimşek and Çetinkaya (TCB governor) to get on with the job.

JF

That did'nt last too long then.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/interest-rates-need-to-fall-for-investment-says-erdogan-133526
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on June 20, 2018, 12:35:35 PM
I know.  Too much erdoganomics going on in the background.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Colwyn on July 05, 2018, 18:09:34 PM
Long-time visitors and residents will remember when we all used to be millionaires in Turkey. This was when a large Efes cost 1 million lira. Then the government decided to knock six noughts off the end of the currency and those millionaire days were behind us. But 18,000 new millionaires have been created since the start of 2018. This is not due to brilliant entrepreneurship amongst Turkish businessfolk; it is because the lira has fallen so much since January and because Turkish millionaires, wisely, tend to hold the majority of their cash in foreign currencies. So their wealth now counts higher in lira.


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/some-18-000-turks-become-millionaires-as-lira-slid-to-record-lows-134223
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on July 10, 2018, 06:51:21 AM
Another bad day for the lira yesterday  following the news of Reg's choice of Finance Minister in his new  cabinet.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44774316
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 10, 2018, 11:49:59 AM
It wasn't just a bad day for the lira, it was (in my opinion) a bad day for Turkey.

The news that the wee fella has started inserting his feckin family into the cabinet cost the lira about 3%, but has cost Turkey the chance to sort out the economy before it gets any worse.  Most commentators had Şimşek as a stick on to be asked to join the cabinet, although given the powers the presidency has now its likely his advice would have been ignored by the all powerful supreme leader.

What next... Bilal for ministry of justice?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 11, 2018, 10:55:29 AM
Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse...

So, not only is his daughters bloke in charge of finance AND the treasury, he issued a decree that lets the president appoint the Central Bank governor, the deputy governors AND the TCB's monetary policy committee for four years at a time.

Unsurprisingly the markets responded by bombing the lira and the stock market fell by over 2%.  If the lira continues its descent then its likely it'll hit another all time low against the dollar this afternoon - and probably sterling as well.

One wonders what will happen if Albayrak's (and Binali Yildirims sons) alleged involvement in tax evasion using offshore accounts as revealed in the the Paradise Papers becomes more widely known, as it stands all references to this potential scandal are being censored in Turkey.  Oops, just committed a crime     :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on July 11, 2018, 16:26:40 PM
Reg reckons the Turkish economy  is fine.  ;)

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-economy-is-on-the-right-track-erdogan-says-134452

Lira now at 6.37 to the pound at the moment.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on July 11, 2018, 17:54:21 PM
6.38 and rising!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 11, 2018, 19:23:28 PM
Falling...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on July 11, 2018, 20:44:59 PM
Into the abyss !  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: mercury on July 11, 2018, 20:57:28 PM
Shouldn't this be changed to why is the Lira getting weaker.. ?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on July 11, 2018, 21:18:10 PM
Ecolution
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: sadler on July 11, 2018, 21:30:39 PM
 :
Ecolution

Is that a word?    :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on July 11, 2018, 21:38:52 PM
Never used to be.

Economic evolution?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on July 13, 2018, 17:50:03 PM
Been watching the tl on xe ever since the new finance minister was appointed, today even though its well known that you normally get less as we head to the weekend at my last look its now at 6.40! Is it going to reach 7 next week who knows...some one asked a question the other day think it was on here if restaurants would be printing new menus because of the high exchange rate, a place we went to the other day and not been for a while has increased a lot on its menu and stuck little stickers over the prices, though id guess this would be more to do with the inflation rate wouldnt it? 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Ray1951 on July 14, 2018, 19:35:28 PM
We were astonished at thereasonable prices in June.  We thought the exchange rate would have seen prices increase but overall, they hadn’t. Food in Mosail Bacphce and Livadi were incredibly reasonable and excellent quality and it was much the same everywhere.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on July 15, 2018, 06:52:43 AM
Food in Mosail Bacphce and Livadi were incredibly reasonable......

And the drink ?  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 15, 2018, 14:17:05 PM
Big day for the lira tomorrow. 

Fitch, the global ratings agency, downgraded Turkeys status to BB with a negative outlook.  As far as I can make out, this information wasn't released until after the markets had closed on Friday night (13th July).

Another concerning item is that the stock exchange appear to have virtually condoned insider trading - they have suspended the directive that meant folks (or their families), with close connections to a particular company or stock, who trade in that stock using internal information will no longer be investigated.

Those coupled with rampant inflation, uncertainty over the wee fellas son in law's abilities and doubts over the independence of the central bank mean we could be looking at a serious drop in the lira as soon as the markets open tomorrow.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 16, 2018, 09:35:44 AM
Well, just goes to show that the financial markets are funny old beasts. So far the lira is trading round about the same as on Friday.

Maybe the son in law IS a financial genius...

...and maybe I'll be flying to the moon on Thursday  :)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on July 16, 2018, 10:53:49 AM
Chatham House don't rate his chances too highly.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/turkey-road-severe-economic-crisis#
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on July 24, 2018, 08:14:32 AM


Maybe the son in law IS a financial genius...






And not afraid to defy daddy-in-law.

https://www.dailysabah.com/economy/2018/07/24/turkish-markets-lira-soar-ahead-of-central-bank-meeting
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on July 24, 2018, 12:05:16 PM
Well, just goes to show that the financial markets are funny old beasts. So far the lira is trading round about the same as on Friday.

Maybe the son in law IS a financial genius...

...and maybe I'll be flying to the moon on Thursday   :)

JF
What with Thomas Cook.LOL.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 24, 2018, 12:41:23 PM
Maybe the son in law IS a financial genius...
And not afraid to defy daddy-in-law.

https://www.dailysabah.com/economy/2018/07/24/turkish-markets-lira-soar-ahead-of-central-bank-meeting

Rates unchanged, lira dropped like a stone.

Kinda says it all really.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on July 30, 2018, 11:40:29 AM
Another big week for the lira coming up.  It's currently trading just below the previously reached all time lows and I suspect the folks that are in the know reckon the inflation rate may increase for July.  If it increases significantly then expect further downgrades by Moodies and Fitch, the latter already predicting 5.5tl to the dollar by the end of 2018.

Some sources do predict a slight fall, 14.4% being one mentioned.  I hope if it does, the Central Bank (i.e.the wee fella) doesn't see this as an opportunity to reduce interest rates. 

Annoyingly it looks like TDN are suffering from the recent takeover, mostly "positive" stories in the economy section.  No mention of the many Turkish companies having to restructure their foreign currency debt or what independent commentators are saying about the economy.  All good here, nothing to see, just move on.

JF


Title: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 01, 2018, 20:44:52 PM
Bad day for the lira again, one hell of a fall around 4pm GMT - resulting in the biggest TL to £ exchange rate so far
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 01, 2018, 20:53:55 PM
Reckon someone's leaked July's inflation rate...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 01, 2018, 21:16:06 PM
It hasn’t gone down then :D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 02, 2018, 02:46:53 AM
Reason for drop is announcement of US sanctions against two Turkish government cabinet members over the Andrew Brunson affair.  The lira broke the "five to the dollar" barrier even after the markets closed.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on August 02, 2018, 09:23:28 AM
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-lira-skids-past-5-to-the-dollar-on-us-sanctions-news-135319

Lira above 6.65 to the pound on XE this morning as well.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 03, 2018, 02:37:42 AM
Speculation growing that Turkey may approach the IMF for a bail out.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on August 03, 2018, 09:18:47 AM
Inflation rate up again ,for July.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-inflation-rises-to-15-85-pct-in-july-135365
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 03, 2018, 09:20:38 AM
Or just take over thriving private businesses to bolster their finances
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 03, 2018, 10:13:29 AM
Or just take over thriving private businesses to bolster their finances

Well, lets face it, they've been doing that on a regular basis since July 2016   ;)

Last figure I seen was approximately $60Bn worth. 

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 06, 2018, 17:01:05 PM
Another bad Mondays trading for the lira, record lows again as a result of the US deciding to review Turkey's duty free status for a number of commodities.

Sitting at 6.78 against the quid and a shocking 5.24 against the dollar.

Reckon August is going to be a significant month for Turkey's economy.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on August 06, 2018, 17:53:42 PM
6.82 and rising. 7 by tomorrow?

Crazy!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 06, 2018, 18:12:21 PM
8 by Friday  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: madmart on August 06, 2018, 18:15:52 PM
We're out beginning September. 9 or 10 by then?

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: chris35 on August 06, 2018, 20:43:28 PM
(https://s8.postimg.cc/l9q6s129t/image.png) (https://postimg.cc/image/l9q6s129t/)
Transferwise rate tonight
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on August 06, 2018, 21:06:39 PM
It’s bad for locals and those who might expect to sell their home to a Turkish buyer (unless he or she has a stash of £).

A neighbour sold her house to a Turkish family for 90,000tl just over three years ago. That was £30k. Today she would need to ask almost 210,000tl.

Scary!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: madmart on August 06, 2018, 21:08:32 PM
6.87 now
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: philrose on August 06, 2018, 21:58:46 PM
6.90!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 06, 2018, 23:08:02 PM
A brief lunge over 7 for a mo - 7.0134

Now 6.88ish
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: madmart on August 09, 2018, 08:24:35 AM
6.95 just now

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 09, 2018, 09:01:12 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks seven today, another milestone and against a weak pound which has lost ground this week due to the Brexit bollox.

The important one for Turkey is the dollar.  The wee fella hates the dollar and it really riles him that so much of Turkeys debt is in dollars.  There's a good article in Al-Monitor about this, and one significant paragraph is this:

"According to figures compiled by the financial daily Dunya, 54% of Turkey’s exports and 36% of its imports last year were paid in euros, while the dollar was used in 39% of exports and 58% of imports. Only 3% of exports and 2% of imports were paid in Turkish liras."

His solution to reducing reliance on the dollar is to try and use national currencies when dealing with trading partners, such as the rouble with Russia, the Yuan with China etc.  How successful that'll be remains to be seen.

Its well worth a read.  Al-Monitor (https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/08/turkey-steps-up-efforts-to-shun-the-dollar.html)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 09, 2018, 09:14:37 AM
6.98672 on xe.com at 09.15 !
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: blueclad on August 09, 2018, 12:32:22 PM
 ASDA in Southampton today when we went to buy £ 50 worth to tide us over when we arrive late in Calis  very soon  had SOLD OUT no more due to next Tuesday... Todays rate was   6.5460   at 10 am showing on the screen
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 09, 2018, 13:25:51 PM
Funny that, 'cos the money exchange in ASDa Wrexham were only offering 5.9 on Tuesday and had plenty in stock. I can't think why.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on August 09, 2018, 14:31:20 PM
Showing  7.00 on XE at the moment.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 09, 2018, 14:50:31 PM
Not just 7.00 now, but 7.03.  Dollar at 5.45.

Wait, wait, all is not bad - the world renowned economist and financial guru Berat Albayrak has a plan, and its not just any old plan  :)  this one's a wee fella's son in laws plan.  In fact, it's so special he's not going to tell us about it until tomorrow.  Oh the excitement.

It really had better be a good'un, went to 7.045 while I was typing this post...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on August 09, 2018, 15:01:56 PM
Yes,  he will be revealing his New Economic Model.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-to-reveal-new-economic-model-on-aug-10-135633
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: MrT on August 09, 2018, 15:11:19 PM

Its quite shocking

Lira has lost 3.07% against the £ just today, and 7.3% against the pound in 1 week. And the £ isn't in great shape. I'm sure there will be some winners and losers who gamble on Forex this week.

Someone was telling me at Christmas in the Nil bar me how much he gets in interest keeping his money in a Turkish bank account and how little he earns when he had his cash in a UK bank account. He didn't seem to grasp that it loses more than that in value with depreciation against the £.




Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 09, 2018, 15:24:01 PM
Someone was telling me at Christmas in the Nil bar me how much he gets in interest keeping his money in a Turkish bank account and how little he earns when he had his cash in a UK bank account. He didn't seem to grasp that it loses more than that in value with depreciation against the £.

To be fair, if someone is resident in Turkey and doesn't have the need to change lira into sterling or euros, then the depreciation against other currencies isn't so much of a problem.  It only becomes a problem if they decide to leave Turkey and cash in their lira, that's when their losses will become apparent.

What is an issue is that interest rates are high for a reason - and the main one is that inflation is high in Turkey.  So once you take the tax off the interest received and gauge that net figure against the current inflation rate, then they're not making as much as they think.  There are investment products available in the UK that give far higher returns than the high street banks, with much less risk than lumping it into a Turkish bank.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: MrT on August 09, 2018, 15:57:20 PM

To be fair, if someone is resident in Turkey and doesn't have the need to change lira into sterling or euros, then the depreciation against other currencies isn't so much of a problem.  It only becomes a problem if they decide to leave Turkey and cash in their lira, that's when their losses will become apparent.

What is an issue is that interest rates are high for a reason - and the main one is that inflation is high in Turkey.  So once you take the tax off the interest received and gauge that net figure against the current inflation rate, then they're not making as much as they think.  There are investment products available in the UK that give far higher returns than the high street banks, with much less risk than lumping it into a Turkish bank.

JF

I see what you mean.  why would you look back on your old currency when you have made the move over.  Still I'd rather keep my money in a safer currency than the Lira far too volatile at the moment.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on August 10, 2018, 06:30:58 AM
The money markets don't  seem to be impressed with Albayrak unveiling his new economic plan. The dollar is trading at over 5 70 this morning and the pound is now over 7.30 tl.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: MarKar on August 10, 2018, 08:19:48 AM
I have just read a post on another site that says the banks have closed to foreign exchange, can anyone confirm or explain what this will mean. Thanks
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on August 10, 2018, 09:43:50 AM
7.62 as I type!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on August 10, 2018, 09:45:06 AM
I have just read a post on another site that says the banks have closed to foreign exchange, can anyone confirm or explain what this will mean. Thanks

Can’t imagine why they would. Surely they want any currency other than the Lira right now?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 10, 2018, 09:49:18 AM
I have just read a post on another site that says the banks have closed to foreign exchange, can anyone confirm or explain what this will mean. Thanks
Some have, some haven't. 

Things are not looking good.  Even the currency conversion sites have the lira trading at different prices, apparently it was over eight to the pound earlier although XE have a low of 7.74.

Can’t imagine why they would. Surely they want any currency other than the Lira right now?

They may not have the lira to exchange.

All very worrying.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: daveG on August 10, 2018, 09:51:42 AM
On our return in mid June we did buy some currency to bring back for our autumn break at 6.0ish so bit of a bummer!!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on August 10, 2018, 14:03:03 PM
Not much of a plan then. Dollar now over 6.25 and the pound at 8.00tl.

https://www.dailysabah.com/economy/2018/08/10/finance-min-albayrak-says-turkeys-new-economic-approach-will-be-decisive-target-change
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 10, 2018, 14:31:59 PM
8.30 ! Parachuting's obviously getting popular as the TL goes into freefall.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on August 10, 2018, 16:04:32 PM
Reg was obviously  very pleased with his son-in-law's handling of the economy today.




(https://s22.postimg.cc/71f3rfvjx/image.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/71f3rfvjx/)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: MarKar on August 10, 2018, 17:30:49 PM
I've changed a little money in fethiye today at the change office as we were worried incase we couldn't get any for a few days as we are here on holiday. 7.10 at the office many rumours of over 8tl to the £, but not actually found anyone who's got that amount.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: freebee on August 10, 2018, 18:05:33 PM
keep looking the rate is 8.25 in UK
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 10, 2018, 18:14:49 PM
8 by Friday    ;)

Jeez I was only joking!!

I need to be careful what I say in public   ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: madmart on August 11, 2018, 01:53:27 AM
Reg was obviously  very pleased with his son-in-law's handling of the economy today.




(https://s22.postimg.cc/71f3rfvjx/image.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/71f3rfvjx/)


They both look as if they've realised the only answer is to get Diane Abbot in to help them.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 11, 2018, 10:20:48 AM
I saw posts from several different people on Facebook who said they had gone or will be going to get their money changed into lira for next year’s holiday while the rate was so high

<sigh>
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 11, 2018, 10:50:03 AM
If it's on Facebook, it must be the right thing to do.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on August 11, 2018, 10:56:59 AM
Im sooo fed up of seeing all the posts about where can folk buy tl at the highest price and how some are gutted as they bought when it hit 5 or 6 and now they have lost x amount of tl by buying at the lower rate...
Seriously surely “ the wee fella” and his s.i.l are going to have to intervene very soon now and do something, I dont pretend to understand the financial markets but I do know this is really bad for Turkey, couldnt believe the speed of watching it fall yesterday sad times  :(
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 11, 2018, 11:08:29 AM
Unfortunately, some folks cannot see past how many more Efes they'll get for their money.  There's nothing wrong with that if you're a casual tourist to Turkey who has no connection to the country other than as a holiday destination on the odd occasion.

The damage being done to the economy, and peoples lives, just now is disgraceful.  The government has decided to go head to head with the US over Pastor Brunson (and allegedly reneged on an agreed deal) and the US is flexing its financial and trade muscles.  To quote the all powerful and supreme leader:

Those who have dollars, euros or gold under their pillows [savings at home] should go and exchange them with the [Turkish] lira. This is a national struggle. This will be my nation’s response to those who have declared an economic war.

We will work a lot and we will try to make our country more modern with all of its 81 provinces, God willing. Just know that we are better than yesterday now, and tomorrow we will be better than today. Don’t worry.

There are various campaigns. Don’t care about them. And don’t forget that if they have their dollars, we have our people and our God ... I want your patience and ardour."

Man goes into shop to buy groceries.

Cashier: 375tl please, how do you wish to pay?

Man: ...God?

(shamelessly lifted from twitter)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 11, 2018, 11:21:33 AM
Cashier: 375tl please, how do you wish to pay?

Man: ...Quickly?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 11, 2018, 12:11:37 PM
There's a lot of talk about the hardship for the local people - is there really though? Those who voted AKP are often likely to be more self sufficient with their own tomato plants and chickens etc - how does the exchange rate affect them?

The big hits are yet to come - the businesses that expanded massively on borrowed money that will be simply unable to repay their dollar loans due to the payments more than doubling - they will become nonviable and with that mass job losses and closure.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: lissa on August 11, 2018, 19:52:51 PM
Food price hikes already hitting. Though I agree that some people who have their own chickens, goats, land won't be affected just yet, many of the village people in the surrounding tourist areas sold lots of their land. Some obviously still retain some but the feel near to resorts has changed, I feel. Many gave money to their children, other relatives, whoever, to open businesses. This coming weekend in Fethiye and Calis will be busy, but this winter?  Businesses will fail without a doubt. I have lived here for a number of years but have always been surprised at the level of rents in Fethiye, especially in Paspatur and along the old and new kordon. Always in dollars or euros also.
There are some very ruch people in Fethiye, and obviously everywhere else, but a lot that aren't. God only knows what will happen, but as our leader said, we have god!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Phil on August 12, 2018, 13:06:24 PM
If I owned a business in Turkey ( big or small ) I would be quite happy for my customers to pay me with sterling at the moment.

Are there any signs that shops, restaurants , excursions sellers etc. are actively encouraging people to pay with other currencies ??


Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: sadler on August 12, 2018, 13:14:12 PM
If I owned a business in Turkey ( big or small ) I would be quite happy for my customers to pay me with sterling at the moment.

Are there any signs that shops, restaurants , excursions sellers etc. are actively encouraging people to pay with other currencies ??



I was buying jewellery in Ed’s with sterling in July.   :)


Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 13, 2018, 09:27:29 AM
Fortunately this forums server is based in the UK.  It is also located within a UK top level domain (i.e. .co.uk). 

If it wasn't then the wee fella, if he knew about us, would be gunning for us.  Nearly four hundred social media accounts are having legal action taken against them for "provocative statements" about the lira, and its current state.  A sort of online purge you could almost say.

So, if your going to say anything "provocative" in this topic, just make sure you are not readily identifiable  ;)

Anyway, another bad Mondays trading.  The wee boy simply hasn't instilled any confidence whatsoever to investors and traders in the lira.

His cunning plan to save the economy was worthy of an episode of Blackadder.

What is a concern is his statement from todays HDN (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/action-plan-to-soothe-dollar-volatility-underway-turkeys-treasury-minister-albayrak-says-135727):

"Albayrak dismissed any suggestion that Turkey might intervene in dollar-denominated bank accounts, saying any seizure or conversion of those deposits into lira was out of the question, warning that "legal action will be taken against those who spread rumors and lies."

In the interview Albayrak described the lira's weakness as "clearly an attack," echoing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan."

To me this shows that he's toeing the party line, i.e. Turkey's economic issues are all caused by others and that the ruling party are blameless.

The response to the question of privately held dollar accounts is expected - I'm not sure if legally they can seize/convert foreign currency accounts, but given the powers now held by the all powerful supreme leader, it'd only take a nod.  Remember Cyprus anyone?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 13, 2018, 12:41:20 PM
It's hovering at 8.96. Will it fall to 9 today ?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 13, 2018, 19:07:05 PM
There's a post from Sinan Demirbas of The Travel Shop in Marmaris that's been copied onto the Hiroshima page on FB that says that as from this morning banks in Marmaris are no longer accepting £s or Euros. So, The Travel Shop is advising tourists to change their money to TL before coming out to Turkey.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 13, 2018, 19:25:17 PM
Isn’t that the opposite of the official plea for people to give up their foreign currency and exchange it for lira?

I can’t say I’m not confused once again...
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 13, 2018, 19:55:21 PM
Exactly. Me too.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on August 14, 2018, 14:34:44 PM
Isn’t that the opposite of the official plea for people to give up their foreign currency and exchange it for lira?

I can’t say I’m not confused once again...

maybe they don't want to take the hit?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 15, 2018, 08:47:36 AM
There seems to have been a slight recovery overnight.

7.63 this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 15, 2018, 08:57:20 AM
I take it all back, the wee boys a financial genius.

I've just sent him all my pocket money that I've saved up and told to make me rich  :)

So far he hasn't replied...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 15, 2018, 09:16:53 AM
He'll be looking for shoeboxes, not matchboxes.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 15, 2018, 09:23:04 AM
Yeah, my three pounds five shillings and thrupence probably isn't enough :(

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 15, 2018, 10:06:38 AM
 ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 15, 2018, 11:27:00 AM
It’s been a while since the topic title was accurate
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on August 15, 2018, 14:58:19 PM
So - do you think should I buy now in the UK or wait until I arrive in Calis in two weeks time?

Seems a bit of a coin toss to me now.

I know that Calis gives better rates on the day but two weeks ahead?

One of those "I should have bought last week" moments, maybe?

In recent years I've waited and always done better by it.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 15, 2018, 15:05:14 PM
I'll be honest, I bought yesterday at 8.00TL/£ and I'm feeling slightly pleased with myself as it' now 7.70 on xe.com . Whether I'll still be feeling pleased next week, who knows ?  :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on August 15, 2018, 16:52:06 PM
There is a right ole slanging match going on on fb re “the as the crisis is now over” ( of course it is) will the price of beer, wine boat trips etc come back down ( of course they will) and it kind of got out of hand as someone made a remark about the ladies posting saying they were all “Turkeyboy fans” so someone said he was leaving the group as its now become like the Calis Beach Forum where there are people waiting to jump on you and have a go if you ask a question lol! Oh and someone else posted and said the tl rate has a reprieve because of Bayram, would Bayram have an effect on it in any way at all just curious  ;D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 15, 2018, 16:55:17 PM
Oh and someone else posted and said the tl rate has a reprieve because of Bayram, would Bayram have an effect on it in any way at all just curious  ;D

He's a good lad that Bayram. Painting, decorating, sorting out the TL. Is there no end to his skills ?  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 15, 2018, 16:56:43 PM
...the Calis Beach Forum where there are people waiting to jump on you and have a go if you ask a question lol!


Oh no there aren't !!!  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: marina on August 15, 2018, 17:10:11 PM
There is a right ole slanging match going on on fb re “the as the crisis is now over” ( of course it is) will the price of beer, wine boat trips etc come back down ( of course they will) and it kind of got out of hand as someone made a remark about the ladies posting saying they were all “Turkeyboy fans” so someone said he was leaving the group as its now become like the Calis Beach Forum where there are people waiting to jump on you and have a go if you ask a question lol! Oh and someone else posted and said the tl rate has a reprieve because of Bayram, would Bayram have an effect on it in any way at all just curious  ;D

Been watching that myself, getting very heated now, but I'm keeping out of that one!    ;D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 15, 2018, 17:29:51 PM
Over? According to some sources it hasn't really started, end of August/beginning of September is when things might really go pear shaped.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on August 15, 2018, 17:31:18 PM
whuch fb site is it on please?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on August 15, 2018, 17:34:05 PM
He certainly is a good lad Bayram very pleased to have found him on our last trip! I know I thought the exact same thing JF re it being over prob is only the tip of the iceburg!

Ha me too Marina staying out of it!    ;)

Sorry forgot to say im pretty sure its the fethiye area ex pat group as someone said it should be renamed the fethiye area expats moaning group which gave me a hearty chuckle
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: marina on August 15, 2018, 17:35:13 PM
The ex pats group Stuart.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on August 15, 2018, 17:44:23 PM
Thanks Marina but there isn't one called that.

There seem to be scores of 'em on Facebook.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: marina on August 15, 2018, 17:49:11 PM
Sorry Stuart it's Fethiye Area - ex pat's zone
 ;D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 15, 2018, 18:13:46 PM
Do you think I should make a couple of comments on there to settle things down a bit ?  8)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 15, 2018, 18:18:11 PM
There is a right ole slanging match going on on fb re “the as the crisis is now over”


Thank god for the Fethiye expat economists.

The crisis is indeed over!

We haven’t seen rates this low in such a long time.

5 days ago to be precise.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: lissa on August 15, 2018, 18:37:25 PM
Yes, getting very heated and some incredible comments. Some people say they will strike any restaurants/bars off their lists if they put prices up. Many rents are paid in euros or dollars......certainly along the 'new' Jordon in Fethiye and in Paspatur, so would should they do? Give them Efes for free? And all the time, these people are getting a great exchange rate and/or high interest rates on their Turkish lira bank accounts. Though nobody has said about the real value of that money now. Only a very few saying about Turkish people having to cope with all this, all very sad. I might go on there and ask how much an Efes is now.........
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: lissa on August 15, 2018, 18:41:45 PM
Also meant to say that I thought the comment on there about this forum was very unfair. All jumping on each other's remarks and also making some uncalled for remarks on that forum from what I see.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 15, 2018, 19:00:14 PM
You do need a spine on here if you turn up spouting nonsense, that much is true. If you don’t like the fact that people disagree with you then it’s best you storm off in a mood. It’s a discussion forum, People seem to think it is cliquey because people disagree with them and they don’t like that.

Not a patch on that group which puts our occasional friction to shame.

Each to their own I guess. I don’t lose sleep over it.

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: marina on August 15, 2018, 19:53:27 PM
They're still at it over there! : :) ;D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Anne on August 15, 2018, 21:35:15 PM
Bunch of morons.  The usual expats who think it's their God given right to get things on the cheap 'cos we live here' 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on August 15, 2018, 22:23:25 PM
Ooh is it still going on “on there” weve been out celebrating that the crisis is now over joking I am! We are all pussycats on here compared to some of the Turkey based fb groups! Couldnt believe some of the nasty comments last weekend all because a mother asked where in Fethiye was Mcdonalds as her children werent liking the food in Turkey  :(
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: marina on August 15, 2018, 22:43:50 PM
I'm not really sure why I joined the ex pats group. I find so many of the comments on there really patronising towards 'tourists' which becomes a dirty word amongst some of them. Either that or they are making fun of them or making nasty comments as Karennina has said. I repeat SOME, not all ex pats. It's like they were never tourists before they decided to live there.
I know there are loads of nice, friendly ex pats there, we've met  some!  ;D 
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: sadler on August 16, 2018, 07:08:03 AM
I get the impression from a few (by no means the whole of the expat community) that they were so dissatisfied with life in the U.K. that they upped sticks and moved lock stock and barrel and are now financially trapped. After a short time the rose coloured glasses slipped and they very quickly tried to turn their new paradise into a little Brit!  Coming full circle their moans and groans continued but now aimed at The Turkish way of life and towards the tourists who they resent for enjoying Turkey. Just professional moaners who resent anyone who is lucky enough to be happy with their lot. Luckily they seem to congregate in their favoured watering holes which are easily avoided. ( I would like to impress that it is only a small minority, but they make a loud noise).
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on August 16, 2018, 08:49:07 AM
I do apologise for having hijacked this thread! Im not sure why I joined the xpats group either   :)I totally agree re some of the comments on there towards tourists...We know folk who have moved over and are really happy with life in Turkey but I do think some have made the move and now cant afford to come back to the uk which would be a truly terrible postion to be in...I know when we bought 11 years ago I was so desperate to move over and im sooo very glad Derek was the sensible one who didnt want to move over and realistically it was never a possibilty as our eldest son will always ( probably) live with us...I love the sunshine but since becoming a “certain age” in life Iv found the last few years July/ August simply unbearable in Turkey and was actually soo disappointed on coming home in July to find the uk also like a furnace! We said last trip a couple more years and I think we will be looking at selling our apartment and going back to just being tourists holidaying in hotels in different parts of Turkey...what I like love about good ole CBF is if you post about topics like “ superglue being used to glue false lashes on”, the salon ruined my daughters hair by over bleaching”, “last night I found a dead rat in me KFC” etc these topics will stay “live” to be debated as Scunner says this is a discussion forum, the amount of posts on the Turkey groups on fb that will say “an admin turned off commenting for this” as they dont want people to read the truth about their “mates” salon/ bar/ restaurant is unbelievable! Just the other week a girl wanted to warn of a salon in Hisaronu that simply did not give them the service they had booked and paid for and of which one treatment resulted in her friend getting a blood blister in her eye! She tried maybe three attempts but each post quickly had those words applied re admin turned off commenting...so for me love it or hate it long may CBF continue and I do apolgise for such a long post first thing in the morning   :) will I be seeing those famous words “ your post was removed by admin” ha ha   ;)  ;)  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: marina on August 16, 2018, 09:40:54 AM
Well said Karennina. Totally agree with you. We are, and always will be, tourists and I make no apology for that. I can't stand the heat of July and August (even mid June to mid September sometimes) so we'll carry on doing just that for as long as we want. We have no ties other than emotional/sentimental ones so we also go as 'tourists' to other places and don't go back if we don't like them. Suits us anyway   ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 16, 2018, 09:54:35 AM
What these short sighted folks don't realise is that if were not for all the "tourists", Fethiye (and Calis) would be a very different place.  There'd be a distinct lack of watering holes and a lot of their behaviour wouldn't be tolerated, e.g. getting poured into taxis at 4pm etc.

Marinas comment that they themselves were tourists at some point is also correct.  I've heard the comment "I'm not paying that price, I live here you know" on so may occasions and even now it grates.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: madmart on August 16, 2018, 09:58:12 AM
I live here you know seems to be a particular calling cry of the english at home and abroad. I heard it about a month ago in Cornwall from some pillock who was going the wrong way round a roundabout.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 16, 2018, 10:06:05 AM
The English invented roundabouts, so it's OK.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: marina on August 16, 2018, 10:20:37 AM
I live here you know seems to be a particular calling cry of the english at home and abroad. I heard it about a month ago in Cornwall from some pillock who was going the wrong way round a roundabout.

 ;D ;D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on August 16, 2018, 10:59:12 AM
Bunch of morons.  The usual expats who think it's their God given right to get things on the cheap 'cos we live here' 
Yes and the people that come out now and again and think its their God Given rights to cheap flights,
because they own a place here?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: nichola on August 16, 2018, 11:11:52 AM
The TL has rallied against the US$ due in part to tighter restrictions on personal credit, limiting the amount of foreign currency that can be exchanged in a day (affects speculators that buy and sell for profit causing it to drive the lira down) and Qatar promising to inject US$15 Billion into the Turkish economy.

Turkey has also reciprocated with sanctions against the US putting various tariffs on the import of cars, alcohol, rice, cigars targeting about $1 billion worth of the $12 billion imports into Turkey.

The US is the 4th largest exporter to Turkey.

The American Pastor has not been released (High Court) but will go to appeal.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on August 16, 2018, 11:27:55 AM
Good to see some Retaliation.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Highlander on August 16, 2018, 21:33:29 PM
Bunch of morons.  The usual expats who think it's their God given right to get things on the cheap 'cos we live here' 
Yes and the people that come out now and again and think its their God Given rights to cheap flights,
because they own a place here?

Firstly, we don't own a place in Calis.

But I am fairly sure that those who do only want to pay the same as expats for flights.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 16, 2018, 22:11:10 PM
I don't think I've ever met a single UK based Calis property owner who believed they had some God given right to cheap flights.

What a load of tosh.

Oh sorry, was that a bit too cliquey?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Anne on August 16, 2018, 23:33:17 PM
Bunch of morons.  The usual expats who think it's their God given right to get things on the cheap 'cos we live here' 
Yes and the people that come out now and again and think its their God Given rights to cheap flights,
because they own a place here?

Will just keep my mouth shut on this uncalled for comment
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 17, 2018, 00:55:01 AM
Bunch of morons.  The usual expats who think it's their God given right to get things on the cheap 'cos we live here' 
Yes and the people that come out now and again and think its their God Given rights to cheap flights,
because they own a place here?

Will just keep my mouth shut on this uncalled for comment

That makes a feckin change  :-*
JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on August 17, 2018, 06:37:58 AM
Yes  Skunner just testing the Cliqueyness.and it worked.
No mention of the so called Morons 😎😎😎😁
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on August 17, 2018, 06:49:18 AM
Its finding the cliqeyness now Skunner,
Even if it was a load of Tosh.😎😎😁😁
Title: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 17, 2018, 08:08:22 AM
Yes  Skunner just testing the Cliqueyness.and it worked.


Where the definition of cliqueyness = I’m an expat and a number of people dared to disagree with my more important opinion
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 18, 2018, 11:48:06 AM
Looks like the lira might be in for a bit of a battering when the markets open on Monday.  S&P and Moody's both downgraded Turkeys rating further yesterday, although S&P did suggest that an upgrade is possible if they see the new economic policies working and inflation to be curbed.  The inflation figure for August is looking to be a pretty important figure, lets hope it's not an increase from July.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 18, 2018, 11:51:23 AM
I'll put 50 kurus on it being down.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on August 19, 2018, 09:44:04 AM
Never mind China going to lend Turkey a  few bob.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Phil on August 19, 2018, 10:42:49 AM
Never mind China going to lend Turkey a  few bob.

I thought it was that great footballing nation, Qatar, that had volunteered to save the economy ...........
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: nichola on August 20, 2018, 09:19:46 AM
Someone has taken pot shots at the US Embassy in Ankara - no one was hurt, suspected to be due to increased tensions between Trump's America and Turkey.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on August 20, 2018, 10:01:06 AM
Never mind China going to lend Turkey a  few bob.

I thought it was that great footballing nation, Qatar, that had volunteered to save the economy ...........
China also according to the news.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 20, 2018, 10:05:44 AM
Never mind China going to lend Turkey a  few bob.
I thought it was that great footballing nation, Qatar, that had volunteered to save the economy ...........
China also according to the news.

They'll take money from anyone, just a shame Russia is a bit skint right now...  ;)

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 20, 2018, 13:53:37 PM
Shots fired at the US Embassy in Ankara.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/08/turkey-shots-fired-embassy-ankara-deepening-row-180820054356692.html

 That'll ease the tension.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: nichola on August 20, 2018, 20:33:07 PM
Turkey has initiated a dispute complaint with the World Trade Organisation against additional tariffs imposed by the United States on Turkish steel and aluminium imports, the WTO said on Monday.

www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/08/20/business/20reuters-turkey-currency-usa-wto.html
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Highlander on August 21, 2018, 21:53:21 PM
Looks like the lira might be in for a bit of a battering when the markets open on Monday.  S&P and Moody's both downgraded Turkeys rating further yesterday, although S&P did suggest that an upgrade is possible if they see the new economic policies working and inflation to be curbed.  The inflation figure for August is looking to be a pretty important figure, lets hope it's not an increase from July.

JF

Did it go "down" (less tl to the GBP) then ?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on August 22, 2018, 07:06:20 AM
Never mind China going to lend Turkey a  few bob.
I thought it was that great footballing nation, Qatar, that had volunteered to save the economy ...........
China also according to the news.

They'll take money from anyone, just a shame Russia is a bit skint right now...   ;)

JF
must have Scottish ancestors.😁😁
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 27, 2018, 20:36:02 PM
Looks like the rollercoaster is setting off again. 7.93 on xe.com
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: marina on August 27, 2018, 20:39:35 PM
You missed the bit where it went over 8 earlier today before dropping down again!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 27, 2018, 21:04:12 PM
Oh, I'm sorry. I have a life.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: marina on August 27, 2018, 21:55:49 PM
 Really?  ;D ;D  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Daffodil2017 on August 28, 2018, 07:41:52 AM
Goodness gracious! 12pence for a Turkish Lira today!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Stuart T on August 28, 2018, 15:40:48 PM
I have some "travelling" Lira for when I arrive and then will exchange some pounds sterling in Calis.

I thought to add a few Lira before departing and discovered that Lloyds Bank has no Lira and the local Post Office has ordered its "maximum"amount and has none to spare. The local Tui has no Lira and doesn't know when they'll have any more.

The UK's run out of Lira!

Should I use hard cash/notes to buy Lira in Calis or would my Lloyds debit card work just as well without prohibitive penalty?

If cash is best I'll draw it out tomorrow before Thursday's much looked forward to arrival.

Thank you.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 28, 2018, 15:49:52 PM
I can sell you some.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Kevin Sowten on August 28, 2018, 16:40:13 PM
Lloyds charge £1.50 per sterling withdrawal (I do it weekly here in Fethiye)
Don't withdraw lira (3% plus £1.50 - OUCH !!!!)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Daffodil2017 on August 29, 2018, 06:42:19 AM
Is the Turkish Lira becoming a closed currency?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 29, 2018, 08:44:25 AM
Prices are rising so fast they need all their notes back
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 29, 2018, 11:46:42 AM
Another big hit for the lira today, Moody's downgraded the credit rating of twenty banks and finance companies yesterday.

But fear not, the boy says everything is rosy. 

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 29, 2018, 12:50:42 PM
(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/62771302.jpg)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 29, 2018, 16:42:58 PM
The £ seems to have bucked up a bit.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on August 29, 2018, 19:29:26 PM

TURKEY’S lira currency crisis shows no signs of abating as economic confidence slumps to a nine-year low.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1010180/turkey-lira-crisis-turkey-economy-erdogan
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: nichola on August 29, 2018, 21:50:47 PM

The UK's run out of Lira!

Should I use hard cash/notes to buy Lira in Calis or would my Lloyds debit card work just as well without prohibitive penalty?

If cash is best I'll draw it out tomorrow before Thursday's much looked forward to arrival.

Thank you.

Bring cash, why pay to draw it out and some of the cash machines in Çalış have reputations for being dodgy/cloning cards.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on August 30, 2018, 12:49:07 PM
As the recent crisis was declared over, this must be a new crisis.

Lira weakening at alarming rate.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: wickwilly on August 30, 2018, 19:03:20 PM
Apparently the deputy governor of the Turkish Central bank has just resigned. Hence throwing the Lira into even more of a downward spin. It can't be confirmed apparently because today is a public holiday!!
WW   
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on August 30, 2018, 19:45:21 PM
Its actually strengthened slightly to 8.65, from 8.85 earlier in the day.  Similar with dollar and euro but I reckon its a temporary respite.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on August 31, 2018, 14:26:18 PM
Another big hit for the lira today, Moody's downgraded the credit rating of twenty banks and finance companies yesterday.

But fear not, the boy says everything is rosy. 

JF

And don't listen to those credit agencies, they are just a bunch of fraudsters.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/credit-rating-agencies-are-fraudsters-turkish-president-erdogan-says-136356
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 03, 2018, 10:21:38 AM
Inflation rate jumped to 17.9%.  It's unfortunate but not surprising really.

Those "frauds" at the global credit referencing agencies are going to continue to mark Turkey, and its financial institutions, down until the government gets a grip of this.  Its interesting that, as yet, it hasn't had a major effect on the exchange rates.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Daffodil2017 on September 06, 2018, 22:19:20 PM
In Nicosia people are marching in protest about the price increases due to the Turkish Lira falling in value.Electricity has really increased in price.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 12, 2018, 15:44:19 PM
Big day for the lira tomorrow, TCB meeting to decide on interest rates.

Guesses anyone...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: wickwilly on September 12, 2018, 18:44:46 PM
He will probably insist the TCB keeps it the same!!!
WW
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on September 12, 2018, 18:54:07 PM
I reckon it will go up😎😎😍
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on September 13, 2018, 08:48:41 AM
The Turkish lira will receive a strong boost against the pound soon enough. We are heading out to Calis soon and the markets always react to that news by reducing the exchange rate.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: marina on September 13, 2018, 09:06:40 AM
Hope that's not October when we're out Scunner!  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: madmart on September 13, 2018, 09:23:24 AM
The Turkish lira will receive a strong boost against the pound soon enough. We are heading out to Calis soon and the markets always react to that news by reducing the exchange rate.
You make it up out of the increase in the share price of Efes though. Doing my best to help it along at the moment.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: cenk on September 13, 2018, 09:24:18 AM
There is a meeting of Central Bank this afternoon. The economists says if an interest rate increase decision is taken in this meeting, exchange rate will drop. Lets wait and see...
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on September 13, 2018, 09:31:39 AM
Big day for the lira tomorrow, TCB meeting to decide on interest rates.

Guesses anyone...

JF

Market analyst's are predicting a rate hike of up to 4 percent by the TCB today.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: blueclad on September 13, 2018, 09:32:35 AM
I hope it does not drop to much were out on 1 st October just for one week .
  Its a free holiday all expenses paid  that's flight/ hotel / transfer  and the remaining £ 215 cash to spend on meals thanks Thomas Cook giving us £700 delay compo plus CIP refund  and a brilliant deal from late deals revisited who are part of TUI .
if it drops it will cost me so a trip to the bank :(
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 13, 2018, 09:52:45 AM
Big day for the lira tomorrow, TCB meeting to decide on interest rates.

Guesses anyone...

JF
Market analyst's are predicting a rate hike of up to 4 percent by the TCB today.

Yes they are, but who knows how much influence the anti rate increase supreme all powerful leader will exert.  Anything less than 4% and the lira will be in big trouble.  I wonder if he'll be having one eye on the local elections coming up in the Spring and maybe accept the rates have to rise?

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Daffodil2017 on September 13, 2018, 10:56:12 AM
I see that He is now the chairman of Turkey's wealth fund and strategic assets with his son in law as deputy.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 13, 2018, 12:00:09 PM
"ISTANBUL: The lira tumbled after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey should cut interest rates just hours before the central bank is due to review policy.

Speculation has been growing that the monetary authority will deliver a sizable interest-rate increase Thursday after it signaled potential action last week to help stem accelerating inflation. The currency slid more than 3 percent against the dollar, set for the steepest decline in two weeks.

While Erdogan said the central bank is independent and will take its own decision, his comments are spooking investors. They worry that the president’s long-held distaste of higher borrowing costs will stand in the way of effective policy action needed to anchor the nation’s assets."

Full article here (https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/09/13/turkish-lira-slides-as-erdogan-calls-for-lower-interest-rates/)

I was wondering why the rates took a tumble this morning...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 13, 2018, 12:09:03 PM
Someone at the central bank has cojones, 24%.

The wee fella will not be a happy all powerful supreme leader...

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on September 13, 2018, 12:25:18 PM


The wee fella will not be a happy all powerful supreme leader...

JF

Well at least he has a nice new shiny Boeing 747 to play with.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/photo-qatar-emir-gifts-turkeys-erdogan-boeing-747-8-aircraft-136794
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on September 13, 2018, 12:26:58 PM
He's got a far better toy than that   ;)

I see that He is now the chairman of Turkey's wealth fund and strategic assets with his son in law as deputy.

Almost feels like he's turning the country into his own family business.

JF
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: madmart on September 13, 2018, 16:41:28 PM

Well at least he has a nice new shiny Boeing 747 to play with.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/photo-qatar-emir-gifts-turkeys-erdogan-boeing-747-8-aircraft-136794

Will it be known as Reg Force 1?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Daffodil2017 on September 13, 2018, 16:56:53 PM
With 50 Billion to play with including Turkish Airlines he certainly can make his mark!
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: stoop on September 18, 2018, 12:32:24 PM
On the move again! 8.48 latest rate I have.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on September 18, 2018, 13:20:48 PM
Hold very tight please. Ding ding !
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on October 01, 2018, 16:04:29 PM
TURKEY has been dealt further financial backlash as manufacturing activity slid to its lowest level in nine years, according to a business survey today.

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1025298/URL-Turkey-lira-latest-currency-exchange-rate-Tayyip-Erdogan-US-Donald-Trump
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on October 03, 2018, 08:45:51 AM
More pressure on the lira this morning following the September  inflation rate rising to 24.52%

https://www.dailysabah.com/economy/2018/10/03/turkeys-annual-inflation-rate-hits-2452-percent-in-september
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: nichola on October 03, 2018, 18:44:57 PM
Flipping heck!

Still below 8 though at the moment
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: marina on October 03, 2018, 20:11:48 PM
Just got 7.5 at Calis Change Office tonight.
We'll see how it changes while we're here.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: sadler on October 03, 2018, 20:58:36 PM
The pound sterling is weak at the moment, how is it doing against the dollar and the euro?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: nichola on October 03, 2018, 21:33:19 PM
Nearly 6 to the $ and nearly 7 to the Euro
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on October 04, 2018, 10:05:14 AM
Gone to 8.04 this morning at xe.com .
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on October 04, 2018, 10:10:11 AM
Keep your eye on it.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on October 04, 2018, 11:16:38 AM
Don't worry, I'm doing that. I've got a large bill to pay in TL so I'm waiting for the right moment.  ;)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on October 04, 2018, 16:56:49 PM
Don’t think about paying till it gets down to 30p
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: mary62 on October 04, 2018, 17:12:17 PM
Don’t think about paying till it gets down to 30p
ROFLMAO. ;D
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on October 04, 2018, 19:06:15 PM
Don’t think about paying till it gets down to 30p

30p !! Do you think I'm made of ********* money ?
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on October 22, 2018, 11:12:48 AM
Great to see the Turkish lira starting to get stronger, against the pound, members very quiet on
this subject lately.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on October 22, 2018, 11:19:04 AM
I think the pound getting weaker against the lira would be a more accurate statement.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on October 22, 2018, 12:01:56 PM
Whys that then.
Title: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Scunner on October 22, 2018, 12:46:08 PM
Because that is what I think.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on October 23, 2018, 07:42:15 AM
Its risen/dropped a tad on xe today
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on October 23, 2018, 08:56:28 AM
Great to see the Turkish lira starting to get stronger, against the pound, members very quiet on
this subject lately.

7.03 Tl to the £ in the Fethiye change offices this morning. 7.35 in the Kuveyt Turk bank.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on October 23, 2018, 10:43:44 AM
Slipped back to 7.56 on xe.com this morning.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on October 23, 2018, 11:22:17 AM
Anyone have any inklings as to why its slipped back please, as in any elections etc coming up? Iv been waiting to change money not sure whether 2 nip into town or wait and see what occurs...
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: cenk on October 23, 2018, 12:28:52 PM
Anyone have any inklings as to why its slipped back please, as in any elections etc coming up? Iv been waiting to change money not sure whether 2 nip into town or wait and see what occurs...
Devlet Bahceli who is the president of MHP, said that his party will not be in an alliance with AKP for the council elections next year.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: Karennina on October 23, 2018, 12:29:54 PM
Thank you very much for the info Cenk   :)
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: blueclad on October 23, 2018, 13:20:06 PM
Our local Tesco store in Southampton TODAY is offering  7,0702 TLR TO £ based on £50  or more
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on October 23, 2018, 16:58:16 PM
The TL has dropped 3% against the USD because of the Jamal Khashoggi killing.

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1035239/Turkey-lira-Turkish-currency-Jamal-Khashoggi-Tayyip-Erdogan-Saudi-Arabia
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on October 24, 2018, 08:29:01 AM
Wheres John and Colwyn when you need them? Haha
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: JohnF on October 30, 2018, 11:44:28 AM
Both taking a break from CBF and I've only popped in to say cheerio!

As regards the Lira, well it's been doing great recently and a lot of that is down to the resolution of the Brunson affair.  Unfortunately, the medium term prospects aren't looking good. 

Inflation is going to be the biggest problem over the next wee while - I don't think anyone will be surprised if this months consumer figure is close to 30%, while the producers inflation rate is a kick in the arse off 46% and expected to hit 60%.  Central bank reserves are way down and consumer spending falling.  Pharmacies and hospitals are suffering from shortages of drugs, even those produced domestically.

For the man in the street this is not good.  All we hear from Ankara is that it is not our fault, well hello sunshine, it is.

Projections suggest inflation to reach 35% by year end. If the government doesn't take effective action to bring it under control this figure may be looked at as conservative. 

Couple of months ago in Jerez I met a bloke from Germany, who said he was of Iranian decent.  Turned out he was actually Turkish.  Also turned out he was a believer in the wee fella and his offspring's bloke. 

So, as things do the conversation ended up discussing the Turkish economy.  Indoctrinated or what, everything was the fault of ............ (insert who you like in there).  He then proceeded to tell me what a great guy the wee fella is and how much good he's done for his country and how great an economist Albayrak is, it all then started to get a bit surreal - I mean, I've met lots of folks like this, but to have such blind faith when your economy is circling the drain and your currency gets rated by Bloomberg as only performing better than the Argentinian peso but worse than the Brazilian real!  Incidentally, the Argentinian peso is the worst performing currency so far in 2018 against the dollar.

That's what Turkey is up against, it's gone beyond a ton of coal or a new washing machine - this guy is a consultant neuro surgeon.

Anyway, I'm off again, might pop back in a bit, might not.  Once the auld fella is feeling a bit better he'll probably be back, dispensing his knowledge and wisdom in the only way he knows  ;)

JF


Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on October 30, 2018, 14:54:18 PM
XE showing 6.99 lira to the pound at the moment. First time since August 9th that the rate has fallen below 7.00.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on November 07, 2018, 09:55:58 AM
The inflation figure rose again in October and now stands at 25.24%.

https://www.dailysabah.com/economy/2018/11/05/turkeys-annual-inflation-at-2524-percent-in-october
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: KKOB on November 15, 2018, 12:42:14 PM
xe.com is showing the £ at 6.91 to the TL as the £ takes a bit of a battering because of the Brexit 'deal'.
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: yabanci on December 03, 2018, 13:30:21 PM
A bit of good news for the Turkish economy. The inflation rate for November fell by 3.62% .However that still puts the annual inflation figure at 21.62%

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-annual-inflation-declines-to-22-pct-in-november-139391
Title: Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
Post by: davybill on December 03, 2018, 15:48:09 PM
Yes the Lira starting to regain its way back also against the euro and the dollar.😁😁😁