Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum
General Topics => The Debating Chamber => Topic started by: JohnF on October 09, 2013, 12:48:25 PM
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A number of folk I work with (Istanbul law firm) reckon Turkey is on the edge of a recession.
Discuss.
JF
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I think two factors are at the top of the pile in looking at Turkey's short/middle term economic future. One, is common to emerging economies: it is the expected US secession of quantitative easing measures that have encouraged investment in nations such as Brazil, India and Indonesia. The other is specific to Turkey: in general it is the product of Erdogan's increasing authoritarianism but more specifically it is his attack on large Turkish corporations (seen as pro-protest or insufficiently "on message" with AKP's vision) and foreign corporations (bizarrely accused of fuelling the Gezi Park protests - variously, the BBC broadcasting anti-Turkey propaganda, Lufthanza attempting to sabotage the third Istanbul airport, and other more nutty conspiracy theories*). This combines with wild attacks on Turkish and international financial institutions. Not surprisingly, potential investors are regarding Turkey more warily. Recession? Maybe. Slower growth? Quite probably.
Here is a review from that mouthpiece of neo-liberal capitalism, The Wall Street Journal: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324886704579052871861015240.html (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324886704579052871861015240.html)
* My favourite is the AKP supporter who said international agents were attempting to kill Erdogan via telekinetic attack. One month later he was appointed advisor to the PM.
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The other is specific to Turkey: in general it is the product of Erdogan's increasing authoritarianism but more specifically it is his attack on large Turkish corporations (seen as pro-protest or insufficiently "on message" with AKP's vision) and foreign corporations (bizarrely accused of fuelling the Gezi Park protests - variously, the BBC broadcasting anti-Turkey propaganda, Lufthanza attempting to sabotage the third Istanbul airport, and other more nutty conspiracy theories*).
The "little man" wasn't long in getting his revenge on the Koç Group (the owners of the Divan Hotel which allowed injured protesters to be treated in its lobby) and several other major Turkish corporations. Koç lost a $1.5billion naval contract - which had previously been agreed - and several of the companies within the group have been subjected to overly rigorous tax investigations.
JF
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There was a similar article in the DT Business section on 6th October
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10359501/IMF-chides-Turkey-on-reckless-policies-as-taper-looms.html
There is little in the press (that I have seen) about the continuing protests in Turkey - confirmed by this article in the Financial Times.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f1b242a6-1bbd-11e3-94a3-00144feab7de.html#axzz2hIe2oEDU
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In the future one will be able to read how all this was a plot to destabilize the national socialist Islamic state in his book "my struggle"!
And, for those who may not understand what I mean, and not obvious, I will translate into the German as the modern Turkish language uses a lot of the German alphabet ---- "Mein Kampf" Alle ist klar???
He is a dictator, and has systematically set about destroying any opposition, the "purge" of the Military, the erosion of Ataturk's secular state, and now the control of industry and commerce, I await with trepidation the torchlight parades with young turks dressed in the uniform of the Erdogan Youth!
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I await with trepidation the torchlight parades with young turks dressed in the uniform of the Erdogan Youth!
An appropriate analogy with one exception - it will not be the youth of the country, but a prior generation. We've already had groups of AKP supporters wielding batons and in one case, a machete, roaming the streets of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir dispensing their form of justice to the "unruly alcoholic terrorists" who dared to protest against the ruling party. Interestingly enough the Polis allowed them free reign and in some cases, simply handed captured protesters over to them for some summary justice.
It took media focus and pressure from opposition MP's for the machete wielding AKP supporter (he was caught on several videos now online) to even be questioned by the Polis never mind charged - I understand he was given bail and is now abroad outside the jurisdiction of the Turkish courts.
JF
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Sorry for the back to back postings, but I was chatting to friend in Ankara this evening and we were reflecting on the way things are moving (politically) in Turkey and and how in some regions they have closed their eyes to what has been happening over the past year (well, longer really) or so. I know Martin Niemöller has been to a certain extent discredited in respect of his support for the NS in Germany, but no-one can take away the sentiment behind his little bit of prose, and I'm changing it a wee bit:
First they came for the Generals,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a General.
Then they came for the journalists,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a journalist.
Then they came for the Kemalists,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Kemalist.
Then they came for the trade unionists,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a trade unionist.
Then they came for the youth,
and I didn't speak out because I was old.
Then they came for me,
and there was no one left to speak for me.
JF
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And I believe those words are very near the truth,
I read the Zaman and the Hurriet every day and
when you see the things that are being changed
by new laws and other things that are simply brushed
aside without challenge the word Democracy rings hollow.
ps. I believe the machete attacker is back in Turkey and has
been released
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It is a powerfully made point but we shouldn't take it too literally. Erdogan has sent generals, journalists, and others through court and into prison to serve their sentences: Hitler sent people direct to concentration camps from which a great many never emerged.
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It is a powerfully made point but we shouldn't take it too literally. Erdogan has sent generals, journalists, and others through court and into prison to serve their sentences: Hitler sent people direct to concentration camps from which a great many never emerged.
Well, for now, until he declares a state of emergency, followed by press restrictions, followed by foreign press banned from areas, followed by "Suicides", followed by "High Treason and sentenced to death by Islamic Courts". I was in Iran from 1979 to 1980 --- I have seen it all before! I have a photograph with 12 people on it, I finally was pulled out by HMGovernment sending the RAF at dawn on a Thursday morning --- by Tuesday evening two people on that photograph were the only ones who had not been shot dead!
I am seriously concerned that the scene is being set for a totalitarian hard line Islamic regime that will ride roughshod over the constitution and remove all opposition and if that doesn't look like working will rig the ballots and close the country down, Perhaps we should suggest he renames himself as Recep Mugabe Khomeini Erdogan!
Of course the World and the UN wont let this happen, just as they didn't applaud at the UN when the Khmer rouge having possibly murdered millions in Cambodia declared that "The Cities have been cleansed"! If they don't stop him in Turkey now --- we are looking at a bloody and vicious Civil War in a few years time.
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Quote: If they don't stop him in Turkey now --- we are looking at a bloody and vicious Civil War in a few years time.
Sadly JT, I think you are right.
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It is a powerfully made point but we shouldn't take it too literally. Erdogan has sent generals, journalists, and others through court and into prison to serve their sentences: Hitler sent people direct to concentration camps from which a great many never emerged.
Colwyn, there was an element of tongue in cheekism there...
JF
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We will find out within 2 years thats for sure
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Well now, they have just made it legal for women in Parliament and the Civil Service to cover their hair with religious style. No issue -- but of course -- it is the Hijab! It isn't about them wanting to, it is about them now being able to be forced to wear it by Husband / Family which they couldn't before --- another nail in secular coffin! I believe there have been a raft of changes to voting rights etc. no doubt to be followed by boundary changes to ensure AKP support where they want it --- its vote rigging in advance.
Will the Turkish people really get a true Democratic vote -- the AKP still have time to change enough things to prevent that. If they really can kick Erdogan and the AKP out there is only one choice. A single law that repeals just about everything they passed immediately and a firm return to secularism.
It isn't that they are heading for recession -- they are being driven towards it -- the loss of confidence will follow the Islamist changes! Turkey was attractive for foreign investment --- with it looking more like Teheran every day that will dry up -- who will suffer the most? the Turkish people!