Where will it all end ?

[ronzeus]

The best solution would be for the more moderate members of his parliament to force RE out ,will it happen, in my opinion a small possibility.

[Colwyn]

There are three very important years ahead. In 2013 Erdogan wants to get a new constitution accepted. The main thrust of this is that political power is shifted from the Prime Minister post to the Presidency. There are fears that this will lead to a further concentration of political power in Turkey especially following Erdogan's complaint last December that progress in Turkey was being hindered by the separation of powers. However, the draft constitution includes some changes that MPs representing Kurdish interests have been pressing for some time. RTE hopes AKP and BDP votes together will gain him a parliamentary super-majority. If not he says he will call a national referendum. In 2014 there will be Presidential elections. If the new constitution is passed RTE will likely "do a Putin" - i.e. swap places with current President Gul (RTE is not allowed to stand again for PM office). In 2015 there will be a Parliamentary election.


So, some key questions are how will the current protests, and more importantly the Government's response to them, affect these three crucial issues. If things go according to Erdogan's plan then by 2015 he will have a secure, and more powerful, position. Surely the events of the last couple of weeks will lead to more people being worried at this prospect - in parliament and/or in the proposed referendum. Will this be significant enough to derail Erdogan's train (remembering that he has said democracy is like a train - you get off once you have reached your station). I certainly hope so.

[apollo]

A well balanced and thought provoking interview on Hard Talk with Elif Şafak . The author of The b*****d of istanbul.

I think that Turkey is reaping the whirlwind following decades of neglect and indifference shown to the electorate by previous governments. These actions handed election victories to RTE on a plate.

The opposition parties have done nothing and show no signs of doing anything to try and redress the balance.

[Supacabby]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b02m1bjw - Fast forward to 33:50 - interesting discussion today on the Jeremy Vine show.

[kevin3]

The Turkish Regulator has today fined several TV stations for screening scenes of the demonstrations which will corrupt the minds of children and youths.Reported in the Hurriyet News and Daily Zaman papers.    "Just Breaking" on BBC News. RTE has given authorities 24 hours to end ALL demonstrations.It reminds me of the last days of Saddam, Gaddafi & Mubarak. Bad times for sure. I think the opposition are hiding behind the headstones watching him digging his grave.  .                                                                                                                   

[jondo]

Back in 2008 I had a discussion about the 2007 elections with a popular Turquoise-Coast-‘resort-town’ business owner who speaks excellent English, so there were no ambiguities or misrepresentations in his understanding of, or reply, to my questions.

I asked who he had voted for in the previous elections. “AKP” was his happy reply and “No” he wasn’t a supporter as such, nor particularly political.

I remarked that there were suggestions in the media that a strong AKP-led government was very likely to lead to stricter Islamic rules being imposed, in time, and that votes like his could have given RTE too strong a mandate to be challenged in the future, if the outcome of the stricter rules weren’t popular. I had even mentioned the famous “tram ride” quote to help inform his answers.
 
His gung ho reply to this - “I, and those like me, who voted them in can always vote them out at the next election: but they have improved things in Turkey for many people so they are all right”.

We chatted again in 2012. The same question. The same reply.

So, less than a year later a double whammy for his resort, and his business no doubt, with visitor numbers decreasing year on year anyway! He can only hope the protests do lead to change! I sincerely wish them luck with that.

I’m reminded of another country where largesse has been known to sway the vote with ultimately calamitous results!

[Kevin Sowten]

Looks like it might go to a referendum   
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22882460

[kevin3]

Changing by the minute. !! The Head of State of the judiciary has just announced that a referendum cannot overrule any decisions made by the judiciary.!! Also. Efes has taken down it's website "as any advertising of alcohol violates new law No 6487", and RTE has just reiterated his 24 hours warning.   

[Colwyn]

Various senior figures in AKP have been making conciliatory noises (like referendum) for some time but Erdogan has notably not been amongst them - instead he has been consistently hard-line. Now he says his tolerance is over. Does he describe sending in the police to use gas bombs and cannisters, water canon, baton charges, and so on as "tolerance"? I wonder if the protestors found it so.

[usedbustickets]

I am not advocating this, but given Turkish history in the last 100 years will the army, who have been weakened or perhaps sidelined is a better word under Erdogan, take the opportunity to step in to protect 'the people' in Taksim from further brutal attacks encouraged by Erdogan and his hardline supporters??  Just a thought, but I'd be interested to hear what others think?