Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum
Information and Services in Turkey Section => Banks, Interest, Money Transfers, Insurance => Topic started by: usedbustickets on February 08, 2011, 20:12:25 PM
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I know this is a subject close to the heart of many, and of general interest to most, so I though I'd share with you some 'thoughts' from my friend of fourteen years who works as Broker in Istanbul financial services.I contacted her to ask what has happened in the last few weeks to drive down the value of the TL to the £, and this is the unedited response provided:-
"At the last meeting of Turkish Central Bank interest rates was left at the same level but took some steps to control the 'let's say' speculative short term capital coming in and out. This changing on the policy of Central Bank seems to weaken TL against all currencies of course, not only GBP. Eventually interest rates arose to 8.42% from 7.98%(which was historical deep). There has been 8 bilion dollars foreign capital exit in last two months. I guess we should call this as correction and 75% of this correction has been done (in stocks,currencies and bonds) another 25% might come as there always be an an exaggeratian after a trend. So If I see 1 pound to 2.750 TL I'm not surprised.(Also I think -to satisfy the businness environment the government supports weak TL anyway. Since there is general election this summer ). Of course you know there mihgt be something else bad around the world and affect us and we'll be talking about different numbers, this is always possibility."
Just like to stress that this is not any form of financial advice, but simply a view from the 'City' (Istanbul rather than London)on a subject dear to our hearts, the value of the Pound to the TL ;). Hope you find the few lines informative.
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Simples ;)
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2.75 is a bold prediction, and your friend obviously knows his market. I don't know the market at all, and I work on gut feelings. I predict a slow, steady drop in the rate from now, with it falling to at most 2.42 by May the 1st, although I would say probably lower even. I am not a broker, I am someone who is stupid enough to make predictions in public about things I am not qualified to comment on :D
But let's see...
If you have a prediction stick it here too and let's see who gets closest :)
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Go on then, I'll play ... 2.62TL to the pound by 1st May. Not based on econoimic evidenbce or hunches, but simply on the fact that I'm over on that date and a 2.62 rate would suit me nicely for essential purchases such as Efes, G&Ts and of course Spicey Lentil Soup.
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1st May TL/£
Scunner: 2.42
usedbustickets: 2.62
Next!
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As the financial world is still in turmoil the sadvice I would give anyone is not to speculate on whether the TL will go up or down. There is so much uncertainty out there that we are still not out of the woods that anything could happen.
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2.3ten
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In some change shops it will be yes
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2.48 for me
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1st May TL/£
Scunner: 2.42
Jim Fraser: 2.48
usedbustickets: 2.62
Next!
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Looks like the Broker had quick sex change Keith so on that basis I'll venture 2.63 !
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I'm even more confident now I realise it was a woman!
Scunner: 2.42
Jim Fraser: 2.48
usedbustickets: 2.62
scorcher: 2.63
Next!
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Did read short while ago that the lira will/could be 2.70 to the GBP
Feb/March I put this on the forum but unfortunately could not recall which journal I read this in.
I will play 2.7ytl = 1GBP March :D C
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Scunner: 2.42
Jim Fraser: 2.48
usedbustickets: 2.62
scorcher: 2.63
cinders: 2.70
Next!
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2.55 for me :)
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Scunner: 2.42
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Ian: 2.55
usedbustickets: 2.62
scorcher: 2.63
cinders: 2.70
Next!
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2.37
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Highlander: 2,37
Scunner: 2.42
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Ian: 2.55
usedbustickets: 2.62
scorcher: 2.63
cinders: 2.70
Next!
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I wonder what Alper thinks ?
ING is the best place to put it at 9% :D
Ps Trust a Scotsman to pitch low ;)
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still laughing at 2.3ten.......:-)
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2.46
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For me 2.39 Bruce
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Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Scunner: 2.42
bewva: 2.46
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Ian: 2.55
usedbustickets: 2.62
scorcher: 2.63
cinders: 2.70
Next!
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The smart money is on Lance - where is he.....?
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2.65
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Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Scunner: 2.42
bewva: 2.46
Jim Fraser: 2.48
CURRENTLY: 2.54
Ian: 2.55
usedbustickets: 2.62
scorcher: 2.63
Julesp: 2.65
cinders: 2.70
Next!
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2.49
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1st May 2.41
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I reckon 1st May 2-51 ;)
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I'll have a stab at 2.45 :(
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just realised................. my last post was the Devil's work
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2.69TL for me
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2.45and hope im wrong.
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2.58 Changed my mind, let's be bold - 2.85 on expectation of more Middle East uncertainty brought on by the situation in Egypt.
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2.44
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2.78
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2.65
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May - 2.47tl
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Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Karaokemark: 2.41
Scunner: 2.42
Karennina: 2.44
2.45: Davybill, Mr Pickles
bewva: 2.46
Anne: 2.47
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Brianthegardener: 2.49
Desmartinson: 2.51
Ian: 2.55
CURRENTLY: 2.56
usedbustickets: 2.62
scorcher: 2.63
2.65: Julesp, Blueclad
anna-marie01 2.69
cinders: 2.70
thebillet: 2.78
Colwyn: 2.85
Next!
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2.5167
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You obviously don't change your money at the Onur silver shop
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I,ll take a guess at 2.57 if I may..
Thanks
Bernie
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2.58
Dave.
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Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Karaokemark: 2.41
Scunner: 2.42
Karennina: 2.44
2.45: Davybill, Mr Pickles
bewva: 2.46
Anne: 2.47
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Brianthegardener: 2.49
Desmartinson: 2.51
Starman: 2.52
Ian: 2.55
CURRENTLY: 2.55
Slikmrs: 2.57
Faymoore: 2.58
usedbustickets: 2.62
scorcher: 2.63
2.65: Julesp, Blueclad
anna-marie01 2.69
cinders: 2.70
thebillet: 2.78
Colwyn: 2.85
Next!
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Rimms 2.64 - Possible interest rate rise here, the pound will strengthen !
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Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Karaokemark: 2.41
Scunner: 2.42
Karennina: 2.44
2.45: Davybill, Mr Pickles
bewva: 2.46
Anne: 2.47
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Brianthegardener: 2.49
Desmartinson: 2.51
Starman: 2.52
Ian: 2.55
CURRENTLY: 2.55
Slikmrs: 2.57
Faymoore: 2.58
usedbustickets: 2.62
scorcher: 2.63
Rimms: 2.64
2.65: Julesp, Blueclad
anna-marie01 2.69
cinders: 2.70
thebillet: 2.78
Colwyn: 2.85
Next!
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2.68 for me.
WW
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Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Karaokemark: 2.41
Scunner: 2.42
Karennina: 2.44
2.45: Davybill, Mr Pickles
bewva: 2.46
Anne: 2.47
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Brianthegardener: 2.49
Desmartinson: 2.51
Starman: 2.52
Ian: 2.55
CURRENTLY: 2.55
Slikmrs: 2.57
Faymoore: 2.58
usedbustickets: 2.62
scorcher: 2.63
Rimms: 2.64
2.65: Julesp, Blueclad
Wickwilly: 2.68
anna-marie01 2.69
cinders: 2.70
thebillet: 2.78
Colwyn: 2.85
Next!
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Oh lets say....2.50
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Whoops slip of the finger meant to say 2.60 sorry
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I'll give 2.54 a go.
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Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Karaokemark: 2.41
Scunner: 2.42
Karennina: 2.44
2.45: Davybill, Mr Pickles
bewva: 2.46
Anne: 2.47
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Brianthegardener: 2.49
Desmartinson: 2.51
Starman: 2.52
TheBruces187: 2.54
Ian: 2.55
CURRENTLY: 2.55
Slikmrs: 2.57
Faymoore: 2.58
phil grundy: 1.60
usedbustickets: 2.62
scorcher: 2.63
Rimms: 2.64
2.65: Julesp, Blueclad
Wickwilly: 2.68
anna-marie01 2.69
cinders: 2.70
thebillet: 2.78
Colwyn: 2.85
Next!
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262 From the Pookies
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2.54
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2.72 What's the prize if someone gets it right?
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Blimey this is getting popular! Perhaps we should award a prize? How about awarding an honorary degree in Liranomics? We could even invite the Fethiye Clothes Shop Man, who has a Phd in Liranomics, to present it.
Any suggestions for something suitable for a prize, or even potential sponsors of what could become a much coveted and prestigious award?
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2.62
lance ;)
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Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Karaokemark: 2.41
Scunner: 2.42
Karennina: 2.44
2.45: Davybill, Mr Pickles
bewva: 2.46
Anne: 2.47
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Brianthegardener: 2.49
Desmartinson: 2.51
Starman: 2.52
2.54 TheBruces187, ronzeus
Ian: 2.55
CURRENTLY: 2.55
Slikmrs: 2.57
Faymoore: 2.58
phil grundy: 2.60
2.62: usedbustickets, lance
scorcher: 2.63
Rimms: 2.64
2.65: Julesp, Blueclad
Wickwilly: 2.68
anna-marie01 2.69
cinders: 2.70
Jacqui Harvey: 2.72
thebillet: 2.78
Colwyn: 2.85
Pookie: 262 :D
Next!
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2.71 from the Spencer Family!!
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You have to admit, unlike some forums our pointless games do have a point to them :D
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I would a starter at 2.70 in March rising to 2.80 in May and reaching the dizzy 3 when I visit for the 3rd time in July.
Ever the optimist, can anyone sort it and is it negotiable!:D
Kevin
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2.67
Sue
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Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Karaokemark: 2.41
Scunner: 2.42
Karennina: 2.44
2.45: Davybill, Mr Pickles
bewva: 2.46
Anne: 2.47
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Brianthegardener: 2.49
Desmartinson: 2.51
Starman: 2.52
2.54 TheBruces187, ronzeus
Ian: 2.55
CURRENTLY: 2.55
Slikmrs: 2.57
Faymoore: 2.58
phil grundy: 2.60
2.62: usedbustickets, lance
scorcher: 2.63
Rimms: 2.64
2.65: Julesp, Blueclad
DrapeS: 2.67
Wickwilly: 2.68
anna-marie01 2.69
cinders: 2.70
spencer family: 2.71
Jacqui Harvey: 2.72
thebillet: 2.78
PKHUGHES100: 2.80
Colwyn: 2.85
Pookie: 262 :D
Next!
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2-53 please boss! T.
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Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Karaokemark: 2.41
Scunner: 2.42
Karennina: 2.44
2.45: Davybill, Mr Pickles
bewva: 2.46
Anne: 2.47
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Brianthegardener: 2.49
Desmartinson: 2.51
Starman: 2.52
tintin1504: 2.53
2.54 TheBruces187, ronzeus
Ian: 2.55
CURRENTLY: 2.57
Slikmrs: 2.57
Faymoore: 2.58
phil grundy: 2.60
2.62: usedbustickets, lance
scorcher: 2.63
Rimms: 2.64
2.65: Julesp, Blueclad
DrapeS: 2.67
Wickwilly: 2.68
anna-marie01 2.69
cinders: 2.70
spencer family: 2.71
Jacqui Harvey: 2.72
thebillet: 2.78
PKHUGHES100: 2.80
Colwyn: 2.85
Pookie: 262 :D
Next!
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2.56TL for me please.
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Should be 2.62 Mr Scunner. Cheers Mr P.
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it will be 2.6ten at one mans shop
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1st May TL 1.31:D
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Your financial predictions remind me of your football score predictions Andy :D
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AOK: 1.31
Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Karaokemark: 2.41
Scunner: 2.42
Karennina: 2.44
2.45: Davybill, Mr Pickles
bewva: 2.46
Anne: 2.47
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Brianthegardener: 2.49
Desmartinson: 2.51
Starman: 2.52
tintin1504: 2.53
2.54 TheBruces187, ronzeus
Ian: 2.55
CURRENTLY: 2.55
Scouser2: 2.56
Slikmrs: 2.57
Faymoore: 2.58
phil grundy: 2.60
2.62: usedbustickets, lance, Pookie
scorcher: 2.63
Rimms: 2.64
2.65: Julesp, Blueclad
DrapeS: 2.67
Wickwilly: 2.68
anna-marie01 2.69
cinders: 2.70
spencer family: 2.71
Jacqui Harvey: 2.72
thebillet: 2.78
PKHUGHES100: 2.80
Colwyn: 2.85
Next!
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2.65 (would be so happy with that)
Bridge
x
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2.43
Diane 8)
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AOK: 1.31
Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Karaokemark: 2.41
Scunner: 2.42
DianeT: 2.43
Karennina: 2.44
2.45: Davybill, Mr Pickles
bewva: 2.46
Anne: 2.47
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Brianthegardener: 2.49
Desmartinson: 2.51
Starman: 2.52
tintin1504: 2.53
2.54 TheBruces187, ronzeus
Ian: 2.55
CURRENTLY: 2.55
Scouser2: 2.56
Slikmrs: 2.57
Faymoore: 2.58
phil grundy: 2.60
2.62: usedbustickets, lance, Pookie
scorcher: 2.63
Rimms: 2.64
2.65: Julesp, Blueclad, Babadaq Bridge
DrapeS: 2.67
Wickwilly: 2.68
anna-marie01 2.69
cinders: 2.70
spencer family: 2.71
Jacqui Harvey: 2.72
thebillet: 2.78
PKHUGHES100: 2.80
Colwyn: 2.85
Next!
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quote:
Originally posted by steveb1
it will be 2.6ten at one mans shop
:D:D:D
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Anything over 2.55 pleeeeeaase:D:D.
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2.66
Sally
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2.61
Sue
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which outlet is this being based on ?
Is it like betting on snow on xmas day has to fall on telecom tower in London ?
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No it isn't to be taken as seriously as that. The rate will be taken from the rate at the bottom of CBF pages at midday GMT, 1st May 2011.
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2.50 only on the basis that this is my bench mark. and easy to work out how much I'm paying for what. ;)
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What would you really rather though, a benchamrk at 2.50 or my prediction of 2.80, come on tell the truth!!!:D
Kevin
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quote:
Originally posted by Scunner
No it isn't to be taken as seriously as that. The rate will be taken from the rate at the bottom of CBF pages at midday GMT, 1st May 2011.
You never said Midday - in that case can I move my 2.55 to 2.56 please - and then back to 2.55 as the banks close at 5pm :D :D
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2.69 for me
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quote:
Originally posted by PKHUGHES100
What would you really rather though, a benchamrk at 2.50 or my prediction of 2.80, come on tell the truth!!!:D
Kevin
Not had a benchmark for year's:D I would rather 2.80, but hey I'll take a benchmark:D
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i'll go with 2.45 then
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quote:
Originally posted by Ian
quote:
Originally posted by Scunner
No it isn't to be taken as seriously as that. The rate will be taken from the rate at the bottom of CBF pages at midday GMT, 1st May 2011.
You never said Midday - in that case can I move my 2.55 to 2.56 please - and then back to 2.55 as the banks close at 5pm :D :D
Nice try Ian, but 2.56 is already taken by me. ;) :o
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2.75:D
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2.59 :P
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AOK: 1.31
Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Karaokemark: 2.41
Scunner: 2.42
DianeT: 2.43
Karennina: 2.44
2.45: Davybill, Mr Pickles
bewva: 2.46
Anne: 2.47
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Brianthegardener: 2.49
Tonysue: 2.50
Desmartinson: 2.51
Starman: 2.52
tintin1504: 2.53
2.54 TheBruces187, ronzeus
Ian: 2.55
CURRENTLY: 2.55
Scouser2: 2.56
Slikmrs: 2.57
Faymoore: 2.58
Jo: 2.59
phil grundy: 2.60
suec: 2.61
2.62: usedbustickets, lance, Pookie
scorcher: 2.63
Rimms: 2.64
2.65: Julesp, Blueclad, Babadaq Bridge
posleeds: 2.66
DrapeS: 2.67
Wickwilly: 2.68
2.69: anna-marie01, mibur
cinders: 2.70
spencer family: 2.71
Jacqui Harvey: 2.72
daffodil: 2.75
thebillet: 2.78
PKHUGHES100: 2.80
Colwyn: 2.85
Next!
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Hi All
2.73
Brian
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50 million
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2.39. :-\
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For a couple of days this week the Lira has topped 2.6. That's 4% up on 4 weeks ago. If it keeps on in the same way it will, just about, achieve my ambitious target for it on 1st May (i.e. 2.85). Go (down) Lira, Go.
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so how does the exchange rate amount at the bottom of the page compare to changing £ notes . I usually change money at the watch shop on the beachfront or the gift shop next to Idee Hotel. is the figure below higher/lower than I can expect to get or about right ?
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Higher.
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Can you tell me how much commission is charged at the exchange?
Hoping it goes up even more!
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i want it to go down as i am having to go back to UK so i have to change lira to stirling
:-\
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quote:
Originally posted by Scunner
AOK: 1.31
Highlander: 2.37
Scot: 2.39
Karaokemark: 2.41
Scunner: 2.42
DianeT: 2.43
Karennina: 2.44
2.45: Davybill, Mr Pickles
bewva: 2.46
Anne: 2.47
Jim Fraser: 2.48
Brianthegardener: 2.49
Tonysue: 2.50
Desmartinson: 2.51
Starman: 2.52
tintin1504: 2.53
2.54 TheBruces187, ronzeus
Ian: 2.55
CURRENTLY: 2.55
Scouser2: 2.56
Slikmrs: 2.57
Faymoore: 2.58
Jo: 2.59
phil grundy: 2.60
suec: 2.61
2.62: usedbustickets, lance, Pookie
scorcher: 2.63
Rimms: 2.64
2.65: Julesp, Blueclad, Babadaq Bridge
posleeds: 2.66
DrapeS: 2.67
Wickwilly: 2.68
2.69: anna-marie01, mibur
cinders: 2.70
spencer family: 2.71
Jacqui Harvey: 2.72
daffodil: 2.75
thebillet: 2.78
PKHUGHES100: 2.80
Colwyn: 2.85
Next!
Looks like my prediction for the value of the Lira on 1st May is unlikely to be met. The Lira needs to fall by another 5-6% in the next two week or so for me to win. So I am unlikely to be crowned 'Calis Economist of the Year'. Although, like many Tottingham and Liverpool supporters hoping for Champions League football next season, I remain outrageously optimistic that I'll get there in the end. ;)
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Some reports in Turkish newspapers earlier this week predicting that the lira will bounce back in value to sterling. So perhaps 2.40-2.45 will be the summer average.
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quote:
Originally posted by col
Some reports in Turkish newspapers earlier this week predicting that the lira will bounce back in value to sterling. So perhaps 2.40-2.45 will be the summer average.
Yes it's more to do with the value of the pound than the strength of the Lira
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2.45
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Travel FX are offering 2.41.50 at the moment which is the best offer I have seen this week.
http://www.travelfx.co.uk/?gclid=CJaZ4JPR0KcCFYob4Qodoz22DQ
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It's been 2.43 / 2.44 in Fethiye this last week, but only 2.17 when I arrived at Dalaman last Wednesday.
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No doubt there are a few of us who have sat and watched the rate go up and are now watching it go down again :)
I know I certainly have thinking will wait and see what happens, apart from £100 that I changed at 2.40 just before the rate went up.
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I saw this morning that the rate is about 2.59 and remembered this thread. I wish I hadn't; I predicted 2.78 while I think it was 2.53 - 2.54 on 1st May (set as the day for predictions) based on BBC information.
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To day coinmill showing 2.62, Finnans paying 2.56 this afternoon is it on the slipery slope again.
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Coinmill 2.57 now [:o]
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Took Sterling out of HSBC today, then went inside to change to TL (Nationwide UK account, zero charges if we withdraw Sterling). In the window it said 2.3, bank teller say's 2.2, no we say and double check, so does he. Now 2.29, he says 2.2 still. So we decide to go elswhere as we suspect we were 'done' by them a couple of weeks ago. We then go to the ING bank, where we normally change money, lo and behold it is 2.6! So if you want to change sterling DON'T go to HSBC.
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have changed money in hsbc for years and have allways got a very good rate changed money there today and got 2.57
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Do they not charge a commission in all the Banks?
I went in Garantee Bank and they wanted 10TL to change £100.
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I only got 2.39 at the post office I was shocked
Will exchange now in Turkey :(
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that was yesterday by the way !!!!!
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quote:
Originally posted by patrice
I only got 2.39 at the post office I was shocked
Will exchange now in Turkey :(
Wow Patrice ,why did you finally realise ?: :)
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Unfortunatey Ronzeus I was in a hurry and accepted it
still I only exchanged a £100 I will now wait till I am in Turkey.
Normally the rate is good at the post office.
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Never mind ,the rate is great in Turkey so enjoy yourself.
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Rate in M&S today 2.50, must be even better in Turkey.
Kevin
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2.58/2.59 here today
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Rate in M&S up again yesterday, 2.54.
Kevin
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I might have been out on the date but those of us that predicted 2.70+ were right about the direction. I wonder what will happen if/when there is an interest rate increase here in Blighty.
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M & S were offering just over 2.60 yesterday which I thought was quite good, so got some to start us off in September. Hopefully the rate will keep going up.