Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum
Information and Services in Turkey Section => Banks, Interest, Money Transfers, Insurance => Topic started by: JohnF on May 16, 2016, 10:23:53 AM
-
It's true - the "big guys" who make more in ten minutes trading than many of us make in a normal working lifetime rarely get it wrong, and the smart ones amongst them NEVER get it wrong.
Since Davutoğlu's resignation, that some are actually describing as a form of coup, it would appear that outside investors are bailing from Turkey faster than the head disappears from a pint of Efes. The HDN (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-portfolio-outflows-hit-highest-this-year-on-political-worries.aspx?pageID=238&nID=99135&NewsCatID=344) describes it as "portfolio outflow", an economic phrase that doesn't sound quite so bad as "bailing". This month has seen more investors leave Turkey than any other this year, by 12th May they had dumped $469mil of Turkish stocks and bonds - and the process is still ongoing.
The Al-Monitor (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/turkey-ambiguity-around-economy-creates-concern.html) published an article on the same day, where Tim Ash from Nomura, a Japanese financial house, is quoted as saying:
"Erdogan and his partisans could attribute the 14 years of success to Erdogan's political wisdom. Looking at election results, that may well be true. But the economic miracle in the AKP era has very little to do with Erdogan. Actually the trend for non-traditional policies has negatively affected the economy and market confidence," Ash wrote.
Ash attributed the economic miracle to Erdogan's former economic staff Ali Babacan, Durmus Yilmaz, Ibrahim Canakci and Mehmet Simsek. From this team of experts, only Simsek remains, and it is not yet known whether he will have a seat in the new cabinet. Erdogan's advisers have said that some names might change, but policies won't.
I think most folks with half a brain would agree with him - unfortunately Erdoğan is now "the man". He's in charge, and it yet remains to be seen if the Central Bank will continue to act independently of political interference.
From a purely selfish perspective, I'm glad we no longer have any major assets in Turkey. Rumours about deals being done in dark smoke free rooms ( :) ) between the MHP and AKP, to further the changes to the constitution and allow the "all powerful one" to become the "even more all powerful one" do not bode well for the man (and woman) in the street, in Turkey.
JF
-
Yes but the main thing is the sun is shining today, and the Efes is nice and cold.
-
And how much is an Efes now ?
-
Only one reply before mentioning the price of Efes Alan, you going for a record here?
;)
JF
-
Most people don't know this...
"Ash attributed the economic miracle to Erdogan's former economic staff Ali Babacan, Durmus Yilmaz, Ibrahim Canakci and Mehmet Simsek. From this team of experts, only Simsek remains, and it is not yet known whether he will have a seat in the new cabinet."
Quote from John H's post above
-
Who is this John H fellow?
-
Only one reply before mentioning the price of Efes Alan, you going for a record here?
;)
JF
It's a very important subject in the EPK community, apparently.
-
Who is this John H fellow?
Amazingly it seems I still have time to edit it but I won't.
Sorry JohnF I meant you...
-
The financial markets are rarely wrong... (http://www.calis-beach.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=60758.msg419932#msg419932)
Good to see that people are starting to forget 2007/08 and the collapse of financial capitalism and all that chit-chat about sub-prime mortgages and their repackaging as second level financial products. The banks have been pleading for this for years - "Let's draw a line under this and move on!". It is very bad for bankers' morale that people keep remembering that those very nice people in banking got them made redundant, ensured their children would never get jobs, destroyed entire economies, and that they stayed out of prison and still, magically, got huge bonuses. But, hey, markets can down as well as up - unless you're a top banker of course.
-
The financial markets are rarely wrong...
Good to see that people are starting to forget 2007/08 and the collapse of financial capitalism and all that chit-chat about sub-prime mortgages and their repackaging as second level financial products.
Dont think anyone is forgetting the sub prime scandal, hence I said "rarely" - and the smart ones even made money out of that. The Big Short by Michael Lewis gives an insight into the background of the sub prime lending issue in the US and was recently made into a movie of the same name. Well worth a read, or watch.
JF
-
Excellent Film - it left you thinking "how did WE let them and the regulators get away with this - probably - because very few really understood what was going on other than those who were making obscene amounts of money"