Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum

Turkey Related Subjects => Turkey Discussion Forum (Not Calis specifically) => Topic started by: JohnF on April 03, 2017, 11:17:11 AM

Title: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: JohnF on April 03, 2017, 11:17:11 AM
Seen a few opinion polls recently and it all looks a bit tight. 

A good number have the No camp ahead - while the Jamesinturkey blog, which uses a tracker over all available (established) polls had the Yes camp only slightly ahead.

Reuters published an article  (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-referendum-idUSKBN1712G1)on Thursday where it quoted two AKP sources as saying that the Yes vote has fallen away from their projected 55/56% to 52% in recent weeks.

However on Friday, jamesinturkey reported on a poll conducted at the end of last week which put the Yes camp on 61.4% and the No camp on 38.6%.  Curiously though, 29% of folks polled said they were undecided - more about it at jamesinturkey.com (http://www.jamesinturkey.com/fortnight-turkey-votes-yes-votes-soar-high/).

Its worth remembering that the wee fella has said he wants 60%.  Will he get it?  What will be the impact on foreigners living in Turkey if he does?  What will happen if he doesn't get the majority? 

As had been said often about Turkey just now, interesting times indeed.

JF
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on April 03, 2017, 11:33:58 AM
Reg is like Nippy, he will keeping going until he gets the result he wants.
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: KKOB on April 03, 2017, 11:34:42 AM
I wouldn't trust the pollsters. I've never told an exit- or street-pollster the truth in my life.  ;)
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: JohnF on April 03, 2017, 11:44:56 AM
I wouldn't trust the pollsters.

That's actually a very pertinent point.  Jamesinturkey disregarded a recent poll because he was wary over its provenance, and the fact it put the No camp waaaay ahead.

Pollsters can be just as partisan towards a result as the politicians are about getting the result.

JF
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Colwyn on April 03, 2017, 18:01:18 PM
Perhaps it all depends on whether Turks in the EU defy the "grandchildren of Nazis" and vote for Super-President.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-referendum-europe-erdogan-idUKKBN17517R?il=0 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-referendum-europe-erdogan-idUKKBN17517R?il=0)

Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: JohnF on April 03, 2017, 18:05:14 PM
He's apparently been losing the MHP vote, hence the chest beating nationalistic rhetoric.

JF
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: JohnF on April 16, 2017, 08:39:34 AM
Ach well, it looks like most of the pollsters have the Yes vote ahead, some by a fair amount.

Only glimmer of hope is that they got it spectacularly wrong in most of the recent major elections/referendums...

JF
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Scunner on April 16, 2017, 10:26:33 AM
Well as someone said, No voters may be telling pollsters they voted yes for fear of being arrested and jailed under the State of emergency.

Let's hope so.
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: JohnF on April 16, 2017, 10:27:59 AM
Aye.

JF
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Scunner on April 16, 2017, 10:45:31 AM
Might be Nerja next year
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: BernieTeyze on April 16, 2017, 13:06:25 PM
There is a guy here, very modern, bit of a clothes horse, on trend with everything with selfies to prove it!. He once said to me, I can live without my dad, I can live without my wife, but I can never live without my country. Seems his friends are equally patriotic. I was surprised to see his Facebook page picture turn to evet in the Turkish flag. For some reason I thought his vote would be no.  Politics 'eh.
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: yabanci on April 16, 2017, 16:26:05 PM
With just over half the ballot boxes counted, the yes vote has 57.5% of the vote and the no stands at 42.5%
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Lotty on April 16, 2017, 17:05:37 PM
It's not over till the fat lady sings. . . .
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: JohnF on April 16, 2017, 17:12:27 PM
Yes down to 52.3, as reported by pro government outlets.

JF
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: JohnF on April 16, 2017, 17:17:50 PM
Now down to 52.1.

Close or what?  Probably time for the cats to be released...

JF
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: kevin3 on April 16, 2017, 17:18:32 PM

   The countries Supreme Election Board has just announced that papers that do NOT bear the official seal will be deemed

   to be VALID and counted.   I wonder how many of those there are.       :( :(
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: JohnF on April 16, 2017, 17:21:31 PM
Aye, what a surprise.

Down to 51.99.

JF
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: mercury on April 16, 2017, 18:17:46 PM
Looks like Reg is on to win with 97% of the votes counted.... Pleased we moved back now.... and decided not to holiday there this year...
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: JohnF on April 16, 2017, 18:22:10 PM
Don't think there's enough uncounted votes left to make a significant difference, although would be happy to be proved wrong.

Yes vote currently standing at 51.34% with almost 98% of votes counted.

Not the overwhelming mandate the wee fella wanted, but enough to create his sultanate.

Been a few scuffles in Istanbul and Taksim now sealed off.

JF
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Scunner on April 16, 2017, 18:26:38 PM
Could have coloured this in myself yesterday


(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170416/d2a557f6777206d585b765343212fac8.jpg)
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: stoop on April 16, 2017, 19:52:27 PM
Some reports saying only 91% counted.

It was always going to be Yes though wasn't it?
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: JohnF on April 16, 2017, 20:00:28 PM
Where?

JF
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: KKOB on April 16, 2017, 20:34:35 PM
Turkey !   ;)

Come on, keep up John !
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Ian on April 16, 2017, 20:38:25 PM
Could have coloured this in myself yesterday


(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170416/d2a557f6777206d585b765343212fac8.jpg)

Apparently Reg is annoyed as he says he won both those lakes that are coloured white and wants a recount at Tuz Gölü and Van Gölü - immediately !!!!
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: JohnF on April 16, 2017, 20:46:13 PM
Between 30 and 40 recounts happening - waste of time probably, they'd be better off heading to the pub and having a few beers, while they still can.   

JF
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Dutchie on April 16, 2017, 22:23:59 PM
Not really a surprise unfortunately. He has a lot of followers that's for sure and fraud takes care of the rest.
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: stoop on April 17, 2017, 00:06:03 AM
(https://s16.postimg.org/q7qxdy935/image.png) (https://postimg.org/image/q7qxdy935/)
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: JohnF on April 17, 2017, 00:13:32 AM
Yeah, seen that being reported in a few places now, all from the same source - it would mean that approx five million votes were still to be counted.  Clutching at non existent straws comes to mind with that one.

Legal challenges being prepared and a few late nights tonight for some lawyers.  Good luck with that guys...

JF
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Dutchie on April 17, 2017, 07:50:06 AM
Unstamped ballots?!?

The election officals have an easy solution for that:

https://mobile.twitter.com/KemalAta34/status/853666681176158209
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: stoop on April 17, 2017, 07:51:21 AM
It was much closer than they thought though. Quite a turn round from the early predictions.
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Dutchie on April 17, 2017, 07:57:14 AM
This helped of course : https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lLi1wv-dp4k
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Ian on April 17, 2017, 08:43:06 AM
So so sad - on the BBC news last night - the reporter was in Istanbul - near Gezi Park and said something like:

"usually we would have expected to see demonstrations here (from the opposition NO campaigners) - but those people are wary and  have had the stuffing knocked out of them - we will likely see people who can leave - leaving the country to go to the West - to wait, watch and plan for the future"
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: yabanci on April 17, 2017, 09:03:29 AM
Mugla as a whole voted 69.3% no and 30.7% yes. Fethiye voted 64.7% no and 35.3% yes.
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: JohnF on April 17, 2017, 10:36:09 AM
"usually we would have expected to see demonstrations here (from the opposition NO campaigners) - but those people are wary and  have had the stuffing knocked out of them - we will likely see people who can leave - leaving the country to go to the West - to wait, watch and plan for the future"

It was Taksim Square and it had been blocked off by the Polis earlier in the evening.  Those who can are already leaving or have left - mainly the educated and the better off.  The UK and Germany appear to be the top choices and I personally know several folks (in Istanbul and Ankara) who have contingency plans in place to get out.  I also know many who are already out - Cambridgeshire seems to be a popular destination for some reason!

Turkey is facing brain drain (http://uk.businessinsider.com/turkey-is-facing-brain-drain-2016-8?r=US&IR=T)

Turkey's post-coup brain drain (http://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-post-coup-brain-drain/a-36482586)

Even the pro government media are aware of what is happening hence:

Turkish scientists flocking back home to reverse brain drain (https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/2017/01/09/reverse-brain-drain-brings-back-hundreds-of-scientists-academics)

In a nutshell, this article effectively admits they're having to bribe scientists to come back to Turkey.  Well, at least that's better than having them extradited!

JF
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Colwyn on April 17, 2017, 10:54:08 AM
If the AKP wants more scientists and other academics in Turkish society it could try letting them out of prison.
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Menthol on April 17, 2017, 13:13:29 PM
Report from the Olu Deniz school on yabanci voters.
Some may recognise the lady in the photo - and Kathy's new middle name is quite appropriate.

http://www.sondakika.com/haber/haber-fethiye-de-yerlesik-yabancilar-sandik-basina-gitti-9506220/

and a video:

http://m.haberler.com/mugla-fethiye-de-yerlesik-yabancilar-sandik-basina-9506110-haberi/
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on April 17, 2017, 13:35:14 PM
Methol, This is Kathy and Bayram from Goldfinger,  Can you let us know briefly what they are saying.  I am assuming they were voting YES? 
Is this correct?
I thought she was Kathy Joan Salaman, has she changed her name?
Title: Re: Referendum looking tight, or is it?
Post by: Jacqui Harvey on April 17, 2017, 18:12:03 PM
Ha Ha,  Just read Kathy Loon....very funny. They must have got the Joan spelling wrong.  However, in my part of the world a Loon is a man an a Quine a woman.
I now understand she and he have voted Yes. 
I know Kathy has moved to England as they are educating their daughter over there, she just comes home for holidays.  Seems like she came at the right time.