Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum
Information and Services in Turkey Section => Banks, Interest, Money Transfers, Insurance => Topic started by: thebillet on November 27, 2013, 14:59:05 PM
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I have never seen this before, a new high (or low) depending on how you look at it. Wonder if it is the strength of sterling across the board or specific to TRY?
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Just looking at today's markets the £ is up in relation to 41 of the 42 currencies on which the BBC Market Data site reports. The only major currency against which it has fallen is the Russian Rouble. But its rise against the TL is one of the largest ones. The US$ and € also strengthened significantly against TL.
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It looks like we've been at this all time high just once before in the past 12 months.
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Is 3.6tl to the £ on before the end of the year? Or will it arrive when the yanks start switching off the dollar e-printing machines, or what is referred to in today's parlance as tapering!!
Great if you are coming over in holiday, not so good if you have TL accounts, in turkish banks especially as they are being constrained to by central bank or more likely government to keep interest rates lower than they should be in a country where the exchange rate is steadily collapsing
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The difficult bit is when you have both i.e. TRY accounts and sterling, the dilemma is whether to change more because it is a good rate but in so doing you expose yourself more to a currently depreciating currency. It goes without saying that these are only relative difficulties as there are those with real challenges in terms of income.
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. It goes without saying that these are only relative difficulties as there are those with real challenges in terms of income.
Your right Billet for most Turks this means a real fall in income as prices rise over time as a result of what has and continues to be a devaluation. Don't think we will see the great one making an announcement like Harold Wilson about the value of the Lira in your pocket though!!
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According to the paper today it's the relative strength of the UK economy that is causing the rise in Sterling. Great for us holidaymakers. Not so good if you play the Lira/Sterling market but that's a risky business anyway and those doing it should already be aware of the risks involved.
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Well I took the plunge and changed this months money into TRY. It feels a bit like hedging my bets; I can at least leave my TRY savings a little longer to compound upwards to offset some of the potential losses (obviously these losses will increase if the TRY weakens further).
By the way it is a bit of a rigmarole withdrawing sterling from an ATM and then putting it in the bank and then on line changing it to TRY so it can be withdrawn. The obvious benefit being an exchange rate of 3.29+ versus 3.21 in Dikmen. Not quite 3.3 but near enough.
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Not so good if you play the Lira/Sterling market but that's a risky business anyway and those doing it should already be aware of the risks involved.
Today the £ is up against 40 out of the 42 BBC regular currency rates. The exceptions, where it is down, are against the Shekel and ... the Lira. But this will probably change by the time you read this. Dodgy game this currency speculation.
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Next you'll be buying Bitcoins Colwyn ;)
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Ah all is revealed Colwyn ...... what is your next step Hedge Fund Management per chance???? ;)
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That will have to wait until I have cashed in my Postal Order.
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It doesn't seem so long ago that an easy way to remember the exchange rate as a tourist was to think "Ten lira costs four pounds". Today it would be "Ten lira costs three pounds" (rate is now 3.34).
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Or perhaps another way of using the current fx rate for quick calculation purposes is to say 1tl is worth 30p.
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3.4 by the end of the day? 3.5 by New Year? Or perhaps the Governor of the Turkish Central Bank will be arrested and it will 4.0 by Christmas?
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ok, can anyone tell me if this goes in my favour when we transfer uk house money to Turkish bank for Turkish house on Monday please?
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Have you agreed the value in £ or TL? Are you paying the money in £ or TL?
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in £ Colwyn transfered deposit in £ to our turkish£ acc.
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In that case I don't see that it will make any difference to you. But if you are buying locally for furniture, white goods, etc. to put into the house then you should be smiling. Your £, converted into TL, now buys you lots more stuff.
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Garanti Bank just posted 3.4 rate.
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whoop! Thanks Colwyn. Is that if I pay in £ or lira, or it doesn't make a difference.
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I was assuming you would convert your £s into TLs at the best rate you can get. If you pay the storekeeper in £s I guess you'll get the rate he offers you. I know what I'd do.
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Give the seller a choice and see what rate they're prepared to offer, or what freebies they'll throw in for their choice of currency.
As an example, if you're kitting out a kitchen with fridge, freezer cooker etc and the seller wants £'s, ask them if they'll throw in a quality toaster or even a microwave. Play them ! ;)
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Does anyone remember if the exchange was as high as this before and if so when?
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I remember when you could get over 2 million to the £ ;)
It's not all good for the property market.
Not good for British sellers either with the main purchasers in Fethiye area now being Turkish. For example a house at an asking price of £100,000 meant 275,000 TL purchase price not so long ago when the rate was 2.75. The same £100,000 house will cost a Turk more like 335,000 Lira now - meaning the same house at the same sterling selling price needs 60,000 lira more to buy it. 60,000 lira even at these mad rates means finding the equivalent of paying £118,000 for what is the same £100,000 house.
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I think if you are trying to sell a property here then you need to set out your stall and decide whether you will only accept a buyer prepared to pay with GBP or accept payment in lira. In my opinion, if you go for the latter, as in Skunner's example I think you are likely to be disappointed. Even though the property market here doesn't have the relative price discipline seen in the UK, believe me, the local Turkish population know exactly where the price lines are and if you think they will pay an extra 10 or 20 thousand lira because of exchange rate fluctuation, then you are fooling yourself.
That being said, it's always a double edged sword when you move over to a foreign currency, the money I brought over with me is worth significantly less if I were to change it back into GBP while my monthly pension which comes over here in GBP is worth significantly more each month.
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Does anyone remember if the exchange was as high as this before and if so when?
The last time it hit 3.34Tl to the £ was 2006 or 2007 I remember as I was holding John and Freda's GBP to pay for the iron railings and told them to hold fire for until I got the best rate.
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I can live in hopes then. X
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Interesting update of the Turkish economy in this article from Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/19/markets-turkey-idUSL6N0JY1E520131219 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/19/markets-turkey-idUSL6N0JY1E520131219)
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Finans bank just hit 3.41 tl to the pound.Wish I had a crystal ball. :'(
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I wouldn't bet against it dropping further...
JF
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Passed the 3.40 to the pound today. Currently 3.42
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3.5 by New Year?
TL went over 3.5 this afternoon. Now settling again? Intervention by Central Bank?
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Reached 3.5 TL Today
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Intervention by Central Bank?
Yes. They are selling $450m a day from now till end of year to prop up the lira due to the current "crisis". A further $6bn set to be sold in January.
You do have to wonder what the lira would be at without this intervention...
JF
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I rather suspect that the Turkish government will run out of money to prop up the lira in the not too distant future. Well certainly they do not have the levels of cash available to the international speculators when they eventually really turn the screws on the Turkish government. I think the bets now are on when in the short term the Turkish interest rates will be hiked up, rather than if in the short term.
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TL has deteriorated by over 5% this morning. It may be getting too late to lever it up with interest rates hikes -or the will have to be substantial. If so RTE is not going to be happy bowing down to the "interest rate lobby" that he has been railing against for the last sic months. Under attack by the Gulen movement and prosecutors on one hand and by infidel financiers on the other, I bet Erdogan is storming about like Gordon Brown on steroids. I imagine people are running for cover.
Correction: it was not 5%. That was what the BBC Money Data page showed and I didn't bother to check it. It was more like 2.5%. But that is a big enough plummet over a couple of hours.
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3.57 lira to the pound now. very nice. :)
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Not very nice for us with money invested here?? :'( :'(
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But nice if you live here Calvin for your everyday shopping, social life etc. ;)
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got 3.55 today from finans
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My desk top currency gadget showing 3.60 at the mo :D
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Not very nice for us with money invested here?? :'( :'(
No, especially if you've put your whole pot in. But then again, should you have put your whole pot in? Especially into a currency that historically is extremely volatile and has been subject to devaluation on more than one occasion?
Most Turks prefer the harder currencies such as GBP, USD & EUR for a reason...
JF
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I thought one comment on the Hurriyet Daily News article was rather good: "The AKP are costing Turkish citizens $450m a day". Then I thought I would so some sums. At around 70 million population that is about $6.4 per person per day. For Erdogan's ideal three child family that is about $32 per day. So @ 5 working days a week the cost per family per week = $160. Wow, that is one hell of a hole in the income of an average Turkish family. How long can it last?
[Perhaps somebody will check my sums because this looks horrendous to me.]
I suppose this is a distorted way of looking at since the money spent isn't "lost" it just loses its value if the TL continues to weaken. So you can spend $450m buying TL975m today but when you want to replenish with dollars it may cost you TL1005/1010m to buy your $450m back.
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Well we are in a lull while the markets are closed but I sense the financial sharks circling and that tomorrow will be an interesting day again for the currency. I suspect international financiers have decided to break the Lira. Anyone seen George Soros strolling around Istanbul this weekend? The Turkish Central Bank has rather shown its hand by saying it is going to throw $6 billion at the crisis in January. Some 20 years ago George Soros threw $10billion at the Bank of England and said he wanted to take that to $15 billion but the Bank of England broke under the strain before he could reach that target. Black Monday for Turkey?
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Colwyn that is very thought provoking, a little deep for me.
I will be watching the markets with interest tomorrow and think of the late Soros, who shall I place my bets with as the winner of this outcome.
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think of the late Soros,
Is that wishful thinking Loz? He is still alive - last I heard.
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I just did a quick google and Colwyn you are correct, 83 and still going and still active, a man that has managed to put the fear of god into many a nation or financial institution, maybe he will be spotted in Istanbul after all.
I thought he died in 2005, now why did I think that?
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This just goes to show that no-one is really sure what will happen - but I suppose if you are the biggest money manager in the world - then you can "spread your risk"- but then again - they are not stupid !
This came from Bloomberg today.
BlackRock Buys
For some investors, the turmoil has been an opportunity to purchase shares cheaply. BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest money manager, said Dec. 23 it added to its Turkish holdings, especially financial stocks, in a bet that the worst of the crisis may have passed.
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I was chatting with some Turkish neighbours and mentioned how hard it must be financially for them with the lira being under so much pressure. I was surprised that one thought the rate currently was 3.1 and the other thought it was 2.8! The latter even had to nip off and check my figures on his PC. On reflection it is obvious that with sterling to exchange I would be more alert to changes but I imagine for locals the impact will come when price rises such as petrol and electricity filter through.
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I remember one of our first friends in Turkey telling us at a time when it moved quite quickly from 2.2 to 2.5 and I was concerned - he said:
"This will only really affect YOU if you are changing your lira back to sterling" - so I suspect you are right that the person in the street will not notice the exchange rates as much as we think.
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The £ is not particularly significant for Turkey; why would it be. a small European currency? What is important is the $. That is how it pays for international transactions.
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I think his real point was it only matters if you are exchanging currency and a meal out next week will still cost him about the same in lira irrespective of the exchange rate.
Now I know the current crisis will filter through to the everyday cost of living prices over the next few months but the man in the street is not feeling the swings as others do which is why "the neighbour" had no real idea of the rate.
And as regards the "cost of living" - it amuses me that "we" often think we are doing well to get 8% interest but if you factor in an annual 10% increase in Turkey there is no real "gain" - you are just running to keep up ;)
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Steady Ian, next thing you know you will be wearing a Gannex mac, puffing on a pipe and telling us "Of course, the Lira in your pocket will not be devalued".
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Lol :D
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I has been a good day for the lira which has bounced back by about 1.5%. Now at 3.50 and nearly back to the 3.48 where it started Friday.
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SBIST100 (stock exchange) up as much as 5.5% today.
Maybe just a correction as things swung a little bit too far last week?
Also interesting quote on another forum:
After taking all my lira out in July at 2.93 back to sterling as advised by my bank manager , we have now put it back to lira today as advised by the same man.
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If he was that good he's have told them a while before 2.93...
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It did make me think though as I have a neighbour who told me in early July that he had been advised by his bank manager at HSBC to put his lira into sterling - we were talking about a lot of money - I thought he was going to a lot of trouble for nothing - shows what I know :P
It does make you wonder if this was expected in some circles?
PS maybe we should all talk to our bank managers more ?? I wonder if Alper saw it coming ?
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I can tell you that Alper consulted with his top brass in Garanti Istanbul who declared "It will not go over 3".
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He has now been transferred to the Tehran branch then :-)
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Well in fairness he didn't say it as far as I know. :D
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Interesting to hear that bank mangers offer currency holding advice in Turkey: even more interesting to hear that people take it.
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He may have also recommended a good line in shoe boxes ;)
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The Central Bank upped the support given to the Lira to $600m yesterday (the biggest since last July) and stated it would do the same today. I assume it hasn't started buying back lira yet since TL has fallen 0.4% against the dollar (and 0.7% against the pound which is having a good day across the board so far).
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I'm fairly sure it has started buying lira back today.
JF
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The Central Bank upped the support given to the Lira to $600m yesterday (the biggest since last July) and stated it would do the same today. I assume it hasn't started buying back lira yet since TL has fallen 0.4% against the dollar (and 0.7% against the pound which is having a good day across the board so far).
Colwyn should I consider you to be my new Broker? ;) ;D ;D
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If you did, it would be you who would be broker. I am merely an interested observer. And what I observe today is that if the Central Bank is intervening it is not being successful (except perhaps in slowing the slide). TL has fallen nearly 1% against the $ today. CB has ploughed in TL3billion since the start of business 24th December and this has resulted in TL falling from 2.08 to 2.14 to the $. A Financial Times quotes an estimate today that Turkey has 38.5 billion of dollar reserves. It is getting through them at a fair rate.
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The markets have lost of confidence in the current administration and this is being shown by the plunging lira. The TCB can only firefight with its dollar and euro reserves - and those are finite.
Unless something radical happens over the next week or so there is a strong possibility of a complete collapse of the lira. Its been struggling for several months now and the sh1tstorm created by the corruption probe has further damaged what was already a fragile currency.
The area around Taksim Square is currently gridlocked with panzers and buses bringing Polis reinforcements from all over - its expected locally that the New Year celebrations will be hi-jacked by anti government protesters and that the subsequent publicity will do this situation no good. Its a lose lose scenario.
JF
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Just purchased lira in Cambridge got 3.37 to the pound, man behind desk said it hit 3.40 yesterday but dropped back a bit today. God knows where it will all end. For me its just holiday money, but for the Turkish people its their lives. As Colwyn says there is only so much propping up can be done.
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Forgive me for being dumb I really do not understand all this but am keeping up to speed with it all on here... If the lira was to collapse what would the implications of that mean to people who have tl in bank accounts in Turkey?
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The main problem is that if they needed to change it to pounds again they would get far less sterling. For example, if they had £10,000 which they changed into lira when it was 2.5TL/£, they would have got 25,000 lira.
Today, it isn't 2.5 it's (around) 3.5 - so to buy a pound costs 3.5 lira - so their 25,000 lira only buys £7140 worth of quids today - around 30% less than they changed in the first place.
The other problem with the rate going higher is that people who are selling their property (in pounds) now have a very expensive property in the eyes of Turkish buyers. £100,000 meant it would cost them 250,000 lira at 2.5, but they'll need to find 350,000 lira if they want to buy it today. 100,000 lira more for the same house, and the asking price hasn't changed!!
Hope that helps a bit.
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Think of it like this :
You had 200 TL in the bank in the summer and the exchange rate was 2.50 TL to the £. So that's £80.
The exchange rate is now 3.50 TL to the £. Your 200 TL is now worth around £57.
You've lost £23 without even touching it.
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Wot he sed!
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Thank you both of you :)so if I am planning on leaving my tl in my Turkish account and not changing it to sterling it will be ok left in the bank?
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If you will use it to spend lira on things in Turkey then yes, it would be sensible to leave it in lira.
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CBank policy still not working. TL down 1% against $ this morning. £ back to 3.6.
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More to go I think...3.8 is the new target?.... unless they give in on the low interest rate policy.
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As a symbolic threshold the € is about to go through the 3 TL frontier.
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As it went through the symbolic 2TL to the $ rate before xmas, and let's be honest the Turks are more worried about the TL to Euro/Dollar rates than they are about the good old Pound Sterling!!
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Turks are more worried about the TL to Euro/Dollar rates than they are about the good old Pound Sterling!!
Correct. Word is (in our office anyway) that the rates are not expected to improve for some time. Personally I think that's an pretty optimistic viewpoint.
JF
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And while we are talking about the Pound, it is probably a great opportunity to remind ourselves of one of the funniest film scenes ever.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrQpe7q03vA (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrQpe7q03vA)
Enjoy ;)
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Nice one.
JF
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Never really "got" the fascination with the Carry On stuff. And it sure don't improve with age. Still, I suppose it marginally funnier than the Turkish economic outlook.
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Maybe you would prefer Mrs Brown's Boys. Some say it is hilarious.
:D
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I wasted nearly seven minutes watching that before the feeling depicted on your right arrow arrow overwhelmed me. In my defence I was stuffed with Christmas pudding and too idle to move more quickly.
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Moved back to 3.57 - but Istanbul stock market (BIST 100) down again today over 2%
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I see that it went up last year a lot but did the prices go up as well?
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Turkish annual inflation @ 7.3% in November. December figures available soon.
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Yes prices did go up although I think it's fair to say many places (bars and restaurants) on balance kept their prices the same. However they have already started to go up again and will continue to do so while the lira is so weak. We have already noticed wholesale prices have risen. Inevitably I think it's fair to say that we will see retail prices and bar/restaurant prices go up too. There is only so much in extra costs that can be absorbed by businesses if they want to stay in business.
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When will RTE "give in" and reverse his policy and increase interest rates on deposits ?
Politically we know he is a "scrapper" who will not stand down of his own accord but the markets are interested in "returns" so I think this is the key question to stop the deterioration of the lira?
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You want the old twenty odd percent interest back again then?
JF
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12% should do nicely - wait and see ;)
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Ah... do I detect a note of self interest?
Generally speaking, high interest rates go hand in hand with high levels of inflation.
Low and stable inflation figures (which are better for everyone) mean low interest rates at the bank.
Ten years ago you could get ridiculous returns on your lira, only problem was that inflation was running at twenty odd percent, which was a big improvement over the previous years where it ran as high as 75/80%.
Maybe you'll get your wish, personally I hope you don't.
JF
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It's not a wish - I am locked in until June with TEB bonds - shows how smart I am - but it is an educated observation after reading up on the subject and my reference to 12% was based on - if it is one of the significant moves that will help stop the run on the lira and it is going to happen - then let it be manageable.
PS I wouldn't want to only be getting 9% when more is available - would I?
See reference to Investors and the quote from the man from The Pru - Citibank
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-335521-.html
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With all this talk and changes to the rate can I ask opinions - I am thinking of transferring my holiday spending Money for this year over to my lira account in Turkey - this will be in my favour as I will transfer a few thousand pound and get more lira for my money . No matter how the rate goes I will still have 3.6 to spend later in the year? Thanks
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Yes but if it goes to 4.6 at the time of your visit you would have effectively lost out to the tune of 1 lira per pound, or 1000 TL per £1000.
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Thanks - Yes this is the risk . However I think I will be happy with 3.6 as I remember a couple of years back only getting 2.2 one visit. Suppose it's the chance one takes.
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Yep it's all a game - not usually much fun though, we always seem to get a low rate when we want a high one and then a high one when we need a low one :)
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Hopefully RTE days are numbered and we can have a new face running the show and a honeymoon period for the economy then I can transfer back to Sterling. ;D
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Yep current exchange rate is just great for holiday makers, and anyone who can draw on sterling for everyday living. But if you are in the unfortunate position of wanting to take money out of Turkey, say after a property sale, it is definitely not a good time to be changing it to sterling.
On the bank interest rate, I would be quite happy to see a consistent 10%.
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Some positive news for a change - let's hope they are right:
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-03/lira-oversold-as-turkish-graft-probe-spurs-drop-market-reversal.html
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Yesterday's comments:
Bloomberg News said that the recent tax hikes have lowered the likelihood that CBank will raise interest rates.
Wall Street Journal said that the recent tax hikes have increased the pressures on the CBank to raise interest rates.
I like to be kept informed by authoritative expert opinion.
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And it is for this reason Colwyn that I retain you as my Broker. ;)
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Wall Street Journal also quotes another piece of expert opinion. "Nihat Zeybekci, said Thursday that the central bank shouldn't feel compelled to undertake a currency defense and that price increases driven by new taxes won't impact inflation." Hmm? Price rises won't impact inflation? That's a somewhat unorthodox analysis. Who is this Nihat Zekbekci fellow? Oh - he's AKPs new Minister for Economic Affairs. DON'T PANIC! DON'T PANIC! as a namesake of mine used to shout (see Sitcom thread).
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Wall Street Journal also quotes another piece of expert opinion. "Nihat Zeybekci, said Thursday that the central bank shouldn't feel compelled to undertake a currency defense.
Is this this aligned with the Central Bank's we've got 6 billion in foreign reserves to use in defence of the lira? I think this is a warning that
a) this piddling sum will soon run out under pressure from the speculators
b) they (the AKP government) can't defend the TL
c) they (the AKP government) won't defend the TL anyway
d) the TL has further to fall as a result of of a) b) and C), and that's without taking into account the linked issues of the current account deficit and tapering of dollar printing by the USA.
BTW is current account deficit the same as a balance of payment (crisis) we used to hear about in the 60s and 70s?
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UBT - like it :) and pretty accurate.
Maybe we'll end up back in the days when my OH would have needed a wheelbarrow to collect her wages if she hadn't been on a dollar contract and folks used to write prices on a chalkboard - loaf of bread could easily double in price in the time it took you to count out the several million required for its purchase.
At our office the new winter coats and boots bought recently are being called Erdoğans Gift, due to most folks being on euro contracts.
JF
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BTW is current account deficit the same as a balance of payment (crisis) we used to hear about in the 60s and 70s?
The balance of payments is composed of two elements. One is the current account which is about income and the country's trading balance. A deficit here can be made up for via the second element, the capital account - i.e. you can balance your national books by selling off your assets or by borrowing from abroad. Turkey has done remarkably well in recent years by paying off its Government debt to the IMF (it cleared the books earlier this year). However, the private corporate sector is heavily reliant on international borrowing - I believe that 40% of business investment is funded from abroad. This is what is becoming increasingly difficult to repay and why some senior business figures are now turning against the Erdogan/Basci policy towards supporting - or rather failing to support - the Lira.
P.S. Mehmet Simsek, Finance Minister, has recently announced "We are not going to fight the markets, we are going to let the adjustment run its course" so - if Basci obeys Simsek's policy - it seems that more Central Bank intervention, particularly I guess the raising of interest rates, is unlikely and the Lira will continue to slide. If you were a neo-classical economist (and I am neither economist or neo-classicalist) you would suppose the Lira will now to free to find its "natural" exchange rate.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0bbab266-76b6-11e3-807e-00144feabdc0.html
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It has been a good couple of days for the Lira. Held its own yesterday and clawed some back today. But my Visa webpage tells me that if you had drawn ATM money with good plastic yesterday you would have got 3.57 TL to the £. So you expats with sterling accounts ought to be happy.
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Quiet day on the exchanges today - the Lira only lost about half a percent against $, € and £ (£ = 2.68+). Perhaps because it is public holiday in USA or perhaps waiting for the meeting tomorrow.
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It broke my heart today when buying a few quid for a trip back to blighty, I had to hand over 2,700 of my lira to get £1,000. Particularly annoying as I had originally bought the lira at 2.85 to the pound. Ah well, you live and learn.
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Rimms - I think you mean 3,700 otherwise can you give me your source - please ;)
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Oops, well spotted Ian, 3,700 it was
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In all seriousness - we are in the same position as you and I know quite a few others in the same boat. It is quite clear that for some this will mean the difference between being able to afford to go back to the UK and now realistically no longer having that option! With the worries around SGK this will be a very stressful time for many in that position.
I know there will be those who will say "more fool them ....." but that is unfair for a number of reasons - especially looking at the stability of the currency over the past 7/8 years and it is sooooo easy to be smart after the event!
Like you we bought most of our lira savings at 2.55 / 2.75 and we will do our best not to exchange to sterling and spend them in Turkey albeit with inflationary impacts diluting their value.
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I guess we have little choice than to play the long game, you never know, it may get back to 2.2 and we will all make a packet, I'm not holding my breath however.
I know a number of people are feeling more than a little down with a number of things that are happening here at present, but one thing I've learned is that a year in Turkey is an awful long time, of course, it could get even worse but let's hope with a fair wind and a favourable election outcome, we can look forward to a returning feel good factor.
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Agreed - and it is still my first preferred place to call home as the benefits still outweigh the negatives :D