Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum
Information and Services in Turkey Section => Banks, Interest, Money Transfers, Insurance => Topic started by: Scott and Lisa on January 06, 2014, 13:50:18 PM
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im very interested to know peoples opinion on the way the Lira is going. what would peoples guess be on the price at the end of April?
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The lira is going down. By the end of April it will be lower than today. [According to my faithful seaweed].
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I'd take a look at the thread http://www.calis-beach.co.uk/forum/banks_interest_money_transfers_insurance/just_hit_3.30_53532.100.html (http://www.calis-beach.co.uk/forum/banks_interest_money_transfers_insurance/just_hit_3.30_53532.100.html) I think a lot has been said there already.
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The lira is going down. By the end of April it will be lower than today. [According to my faithful seaweed].
Ah fine guidance again from my Neo Iconclastic Broker and his ever faithful seaweed.
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ive read all the stuff, i was hoping people would estimate a guess in actual figures!
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S&L, you ask about next April. There are local elections in March. Will those elections demonstrate that:
A) The AKP is back in control of Turkish politics, the situation has been stabilized and the economy is heading into calmer waters;
B) The CHP has made massive strides, the AKP's days are numbered and the economy will soon be under new control;
C) The AKP has split into Erdogan and Gul factions with considerable in-fighting, no opposition party has emerged as a credible alternative government, political uncertainty has massively increased and foreign investors and bond-holders are fleeing the country;
D) Some other outcome - please specify.
If you can say what the outcome will be you can give people a good chance of predicting where the Lira will be.
Then we'll have to consider the impact of all of this on the Presidential elections of August 2014.
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i give up!
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Good idea! But if you want more perplexity you could try this extraordinarily gloomy prognosis for Turkey 2014 from the Turkey Pulse column in Al Monitor (always thought provoking but not necessarily reliable):
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/01/erdogan-elections-power-struggle-kurd-gulen-syria.html#
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Based on how long is a piece of string, the economic stupidity levels of this government, the ever changing political environment, international currency speculation, and of course the faithful seaweed guide, I'd say, if I was a gambling or speculation man, that the lira has further to fall ... now how much will depend on said length of string, stupidity levels, politics, and wetness or otherwise of seaweed... I'd therefore take a punt that it will fall somewhere south of 3.8TL to £, but for a more accurate assessment I'd look at the TL to $ or euro rate.
As a certain Mr K Marx noted:
It is absolutely impossible to transcend the laws of nature. What can change in historically different circumstances is only the form in which these laws expose themselves.
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Didn't you go off with the money in last year's competition scott and lisa :)
I'll go with whatever you say this time :)
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Of much more importance to many will be ' how much will a large Efes be' ??!!
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Now, now H. You know that there is a UK legal requirement that any financial recommendation has to come with health warning that: "past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes".
Of much more importance to many will be ' how much will a large Efes be' ??!!
I know the answer to that one. More.
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That's true H! How about another one?
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Based on Colwyn's choices A to D . I would predict C.
WW
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Sainsbury supermarket 48 hour sale on turkish lira,they are giving you 3.48 to the pound offer finishes soon sounds like not a bad deal considering your buying in the uk and not turkey.
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Of much more importance to many will be ' how much will a large Efes be' ??!!
Not something for you to worry about, Gordon, Loz has plans for a more exotic holiday destination for you. I hear fermented yak's milk is still at a quite reasonable price (while stocks last).
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Scotland's not like that anymore!
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so i take it thats a no then!
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The lira will be 4.09/£ on the last day of April.
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Thank you for humoring me Scunner!
3.41
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3.48
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3.79
WW
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3.89.
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I propose a new "End of April Guess the Rate" competition and thought this time we could support the wonderful Embrace Ladies who do so much for kids locally and just don't get the 'column inches' others do.
Fiver in winner takes half - shall I set it up?
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That's a "Yes" from me - even if it is a set-up.
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I've had a word with RTE. Natta mean? Natta mean??
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Yes, count me in.
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Oh how I hope it continues in the current direction - my pension pot comes in at the end of June and will be transferred to Turkey as our 'starter for ten' before we retire there in October ;D
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Careful what you wish for KS. If it does continue in the same direction it will be because Turkey is still experiencing political and economic instability. Is that the sort of country in which you want to live?
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Are you crackers - sticking your pension pot in to such a volatile and unstable currency?
JF
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Fiver in winner takes half - shall I set it up?
Yes please.
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Ha Ha !!!! (Its not ALL of our money !!!)
I suppose I should leave it in a low interest account in UK ;)
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If it ends up at 5 or 6 lira to the pound in October you'll wish you hadn't bought all those liras in June
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Pity we don't have crystal balls - we'd all be rich ;)
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Well you might not be ;)
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Count me in.
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If it ends up at 5 or 6 lira to the pound in October you'll wish you hadn't bought all those liras in June
Funnily enough Angela's pension pot comes in October - so we shall see :) :) :)
Sure as hell our money will go further in Turkey than the UK !!!
(And I'd be working till 70 to afford the same lifestyle there)
Who knows - watch this space.
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Count me in am back to full time work now which equals full time pay woop woop :)
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We're in, 4.1 for us. ;)
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At last! Count me in
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I will start it as a topic in it's own right in the morning - feel free to post your predictions here for now and I'll transfer them. Anyone who wants to rethink what they have guessed here can reply to say so, otherwise they'll be listed in the morn :)
Fivers to keith @ calis-beach.co.uk @ Paypal or direct to the Embrace shop (but best by Paypal to be honest).
Feel free to have more than one guess, they're a fiver each ;)
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I'll go for complete collapse and devaluation :(
JF
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It's only a fiver
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Its only a prediction.
JF
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I'm in but want to change prediction to 3.9 please. will send fiver by pay pal to you Keith.
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EG, gloomier mood today or have you got new inside info?
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If I told you I'd have to kill you :D ;)
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If it goes to six ill give you a kiss ha! ha!(6)
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I'm hoping for no more than 5.99 :P
Ok the exchange rate competition is set up at http://www.calis-beach.co.uk/forum/calis_beach_questions_and_information/new_charity_competition_predict_lira_exchange_rate_53914.0.html
Please don't add them here in this topic, I'll not be checking.
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3.59 straight drop this morning to 3.575 - did they throw a wedge at it today?
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I think it was because the £ took a straight drop against the $ and the € both of which stay steady against TL.
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The usual Friday feel good factor - nothing more scientific than that ;)
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I think the rate will drop to around the 3.20TL to £1 mark end of April seems things are turning now as elections approach it will go up again then decrease in the honeymoon period after. Seems a .15 change in a few day is not unusual and also the news on the currency markets is Lira is looking a good buy now so they must reckon it is going to start strengthening soon.
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Another poor day for the lira so far - lost a full 1% against the GBP and now edging over the 'significant' milestone which is 3TL/€.
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Stock market also falling.
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Kinda wondering if the TCB has now done its dough and this is the result...?
JF
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Latest economic data published this morning show Turkey's already large current account deficit got worse in November. Turkey now needs even more international inflows to remain buoyant and still no sign of interest rate rise. We'll see what happens on the 21st.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/14/markets-turkey-idUKL6N0KO0WG20140114
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25548060
a bit of optimism
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I heard the economist who coined MINT being interviewed a few days ago. Unfortunately, despite it being quite an extended interview, the interviewer lacked the intelligence and/or knowledge to ask for comment on what has been happening in Turkey since mid December and whether or not it put put a dent in his headline-grabbing prediction.
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The TL took another dive this morning. Now $ is through 2.2, the € through 3, and the £ through 3.6. Will the CBank be able to claw this back during the day?
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im starting to regret putting so much in my Turkish account, just my luck to do it when the Lira weakened, i put mine in at around 2.7 and 2.8 with the added interest i still need it around 3 to break even
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A lot are in exactly the same position.
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so what / where would you consider to be a stable economy in this funny old world we live in?
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You have to make your own judgement in respect of risk/return.
Over the years I've been amazed at the number of folks who put all their money into TL - the Turks dont, they know better from bitter experience of how you can have your savings/investments virtually wiped out overnight. This is one reason why so many have gbp/eur/usd accounts and why it is so easy to open one.
JF
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JohnF, I suspect there is something of a British mindset, or perhaps a mindset of those who are used to living in economies with a relatively stable currency. This assumes that getting a high interest rate is "a good thing" without thinking that rates are high for a reason. In the case of the TL I suppose the main reasons are the risk of devaluation and the risk of high inflation. For the last ten years taking the first aspect of this view would have served someone well. The TL has been stable against international currencies at the rate of 2.5:£ plus/minus a bit. But, nearly always, the second aspect has been a major factor. The notion that getting 10% from a lira account is "obviously" better than getting 2% from a GBP account is going to take some shifting for those who have gotten used to this over the last decade.
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I suspect you're right Colwyn, and yes, the past few years has seen the TL stabilise against the major currencies. But its a bit like house-training a feral animal, you never know when its going to turn round and bite you in the arse.
Your second factor is the one many folks conveniently ignore. Great getting 10% on your money, but when inflation is running at 7.4% its not such a "great" deal after all. In fact, recent figures show that alcohol, tobacco, cafes & restaurant and transportation all rose closer to 10% as opposed to 7.4%.
JF
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john the inflation dosnt effect those of us who live in England, But i am am one of the ones caught out in buy the previous stable years and good interest, but maybe things will turn round
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The TL is doing well today and holding its own against $ and €. But you couldn't tell that by looking at the £ which is up across the board - including a rise over 3.63 against the TL. It happened at 9.30 so I'll now have to search out what was the bit of good news that prompted this.
P.S. Most likely it was the release of the UK retail figures showing a 2.6% rise in December. Change of the £:TL not down to Turkey CBank and AKP: that makes a change.
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The TL is doing well today and holding its own against $ and €. But you couldn't tell that by looking at the £ which is up across the board - including a rise over 3.63 against the TL. It happened at 9.30 so I'll now have to search out what was the bit of good news that prompted this.
Probably Giedeon's announcement of an above inflation increase to the Minimum Wage, to allow others to share in the economic success of this government, he said. I say it's to cut down on the Tax Credits etc. paid to people on Minimum Wage ....... don't think I'm wrong. happy to hear arguments against my view.
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3.64 TYL To the £1.00 today, Got to the HSBC in Fethiye at 11,00 am, and guess what no GBP left in the ATM,S, set off down the street and suddenly the air was rife with the smell of bacon and eggs, and there they were, packed mulberry tree, full English everywhere. bloody Ex Pats. ;) :( :(
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Putting your money into a foreign currency takes some guts - especially the YTL. I would only put in what I could afford to lose.
If you like a risk then bit coins would have been a good one to have a go at.
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how much Turkish lira do u want? get the floorboards up!!!! lol
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DM, just as well you didn't get £ this morning. It went through 2.65 this afternoon.
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It went through 2.65 this afternoon.
Old habits die hard eh :)
3.65 ;)
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I think Colwyn might have been talking about the price of a coffee in Bristol.
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Or the temperature
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Actually it is the inches of rainfall we have had this week. And I'm fed up with up. The footpath to the local is a quag and I have to walk there the long way via the road.
P.S. The Lira has now gone through - I'll try to get this right - the 3.66 mark.
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Just turned my laptop on, desktop showing 3.657 lira to the pound. Like Des I tried to get sterling today and the machine was empty, that was at 2:00 pm.
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I know Marggie, the crafty buggars know what we are trying to do, and do,nt fill the ATMS up, so we cant go into the bank with say £1.000 and change it to TYL. >:(
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But Des, the one thing they want/need is for people to use foreign currency to buy lira...
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The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Turkey meets next Tuesday (21 Jan). What will will happen?
A. Economically they have to raise interest rates.
B. Politically they can't raise interests rates.
C. In a compromise, interest rates will be raised but by a trivial amount (say, under 1%) so it won't be enough.
D. Something else (please specify).
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so explain Keith, why are their machines not giving it to us.
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The machines are of foreign design and are programmed to work with the international interest rate lobby to destablize the Turkish economy and overthrow the properly elected and legitimate Government in the current coup attempt. RTE told me so yesterday.
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and colwyn please give it a rest, you make no sense at all, if I may, can I ask you when were you last in Calis
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The machines are of foreign design and are programmed to work with the international interest rate lobby to destablize the Turkish economy and overthrow the properly elected and legitimate Government in the current coup attempt. RTE told me so yesterday.
I believe I asked that question to Keith not you.
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Now now Des, goodwill to all men is the CBF way. I would imagine with the majority of sterling withrawers being expats, they are getting their pounds out to benefit from the high exchange rate. They do it earlier than you ;)
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HSBC full this evening with lovely sterling cash. You must be going to the wrong machines Des.
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The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Turkey meets next Tuesday (21 Jan). What will will happen?
A. Economically they have to raise interest rates.
B. Politically they can't raise interests rates.
C. In a compromise, interest rates will be raised but by a trivial amount (say, under 1%) so it won't be enough.
D. Something else (please specify).
My prediction is:
D. - The MPC and the CBT have a punchup but nothing's resolved then the meeting breaks up :)
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Now now Des, goodwill to all men is the CBF way. I would imagine with the majority of sterling withrawers being expats, they are getting their pounds out to benefit from the high exchange rate. They do it earlier than you ;)
Spot on Keith, that was what I was joking about, they beat me to it, will be there 6 am Monday morning queuing up as though it were a January sale at Harrods. :D :D
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My prediction is:
D. - The MPC and the CBT have a punchup but nothing's resolved then the meeting breaks up :)
I don't know how the Turkish CBank runs its business. In the UK the votes are announced some time after the decision when people have started thinking about something else. My guess would be that things are far more secretive in Turkey. But the end result of your scenario will be no change in interest rates. The same result as my choice - which is option B.
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Saw a brief 3.6925 earlier
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CBank announced at 12 noon GMT that interest rates would remain unchanged. TL:£ now through 3.7.
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Yes that was well received
(http://www.calis-beach.co.uk/tryGBP.jpg)
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You can almost hear the counter clicking as the Lira passes new milestones. Now £ = 3.71TL.
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Lubbly Jubbly. ;D ;D ;D ;
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Yes Des, 30% more lira for your pounds sterling. Should help a bit when the price of everything goes up 40% over there...
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Yes, guess your right Keith, I,ll still buy you a pint though. ;)
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And I'll still accept it
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CLICK. Just over an hour after it went through 3.71 it has now gone through 3.72. I think the description "freefall" is looking more plausible.
CLICK. 15 minutes later it touched 3.73. Perhaps it will settle back for a while now. If not surely the CB will have to rethink.
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Or perhaps a meteoric rise :-\
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im now starting to get very worried
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This is getting ridiculous. The US$ is an incredibly important currency in Turkey most international trading is done in dollars lots of busness rents are in dollars and also many goods and its now 2.26 and also Europe is a big trading partner.
I can't believe interest rates haven't gone up and while its nice to get a good exchange rate for the £ as sure as night follows day prices will inevitably go up. Not great for the normal working Turk and small to medium size business owner either.
I had one of my wholesaler in istanbul on the phone last night almost in tears. Just one cost affected is his business premises rent. Set in dollars at the moment that means a 12 thousand lira increase for him per year. And it's not over yet and it's not the only thing that he pays for that's priced in dollars.
Most of the shop and restaurant rents in Ölüdeniz are also in US$.
Beyond a joke now >:(
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Exactly, and it's not just the things individuals and small businesses have to buy in dollars that will start to cripple things. Commodities like gas and petrol are imported at dollar prices and that increase (in the amount of lira needed to buy) has to be passed on all the way along the line. You don't need to be an economist to know that when fuel prices increase, the price of everything increases.
Furthermore, the exchange rates of the lira to the pound/dollar/euro has no effect on the "average" Turkish person so they'll be facing these price increases without any benefit of a rising amount of lira per foreign currency unit.
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That's exactly right!
It's also ridiculous that so many things in Turkey are priced in foreign currency. Basically this means the lira is not trusted as a currency.
Also the rationale that by not putting up rates because it will lead to inflation is seriously flawed because all the things outlined above by Keith are going to cause inflation anyway. Apparently putting up rates would be like accepting there will be inflation.
So lets all bury our heads in the sand then! Honestly what jokers!
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Yes Des, 30% more lira for your pounds sterling. Should help a bit when the price of everything goes up 40% over there...
So cynical for one so young Scunner !!!! ;)
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Realistic I call it :)
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Can't believe the Central Bank didn't make a small concession and increase interest rates just a single percentage point or one point five as everyone knows its what the markets expected and wanted.
The problem now is that it could be viewed as the Central Bank is too frightened to upset RTE and would prefer to try and swim against the tides of the markets even though it might mean the lira drowning!
Crazy - but it shows how frightened everyone is ???
President Gul - where are you - time to make a move ........................,
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Can't believe the Central Bank didn't make a small concession and increase interest rate
Unfortunately it is no longer a small concession. Both RTE and Basci have staked their reputations on seeing off the foreign "interest lobby": RTE by stating it is part of a coup attempt against the AKP government; and Basci by saying he rejects orthodox economic policy being imposed on the CBank and promising to prove his alternative policy will triumph. There is a lot of political testosterone in this.
I wonder how RTE got on in Brussels today. Good news for the markets do you suppose? I don't.
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Exactly, and it's not just the things individuals and small businesses have to buy in dollars that will start to cripple things. Commodities like gas and petrol are imported at dollar prices and that increase (in the amount of lira needed to buy) has to be passed on all the way along the line. You don't need to be an economist to know that when fuel prices increase, the price of everything increases.
Just to prove you right I have been monitoring some Turkish Airlines flights from Manchester to Dalaman via Istanbul in March for a few weeks now.
They have been daily at £147 since New Year - now they are £166.
That's about 12% by my reckoning with more to come I suspect !!!
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As an Ex-Pat here, you would think that I'm delighted that my monthly occupational pension which is paid in GBP is a great thing as it will buy lots more lira, the fact is that as someone who still has ambitions to travel, I need to save these pounds rather than change my lira back into GBP, €, $, Thai Bat or HK$.
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Last week the PTT changed the way it calculates the price for small parcels (under 2 kilos) and letters.
For example a parcel that two weeks ago would have cost 32tl now costs 88tl to send to Australia. Math isn't my strong point but that's one hell of an increase.
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200% + increase - makes my 12% look good !
Seriously though you can see prices changing already and it can only continue to go one way - not going to be easy for local people and businesses :-(
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On the plus side this party is only in power because it was considered to be good at managing the economy. As things stand and if this trend continues then they are likely to lose the support of large swathes of the population as this will hit the ordinary workers and people the hardest as discussed on the previous page.
The next couple of years are going to be very interesting indeed!
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Somehow you just can't see RTE going quietly unless his own party manage to force him out - but will they?
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We too are saving our sterling for travel (the rate is never on our side lol), now pull more lira out of the bank. In effect its like playing the stock market,, to know how to make the best of your money. Swings and roundabouts. Feel for the average Turk, who will feel it most, with increasing costs........how will RTE appease this situation, for his followers. Can free wood, coal, fridges, new hospitals, roads, etc do it!!!!again........
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A relatively quiet morning for TL against the $ and € but the £ is out of line and still sharply strengthening. CLICK 3.74.
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3.75 - it's getting silly now
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In the pipeline.
First, the US's "tapering" of its economic stimulus has not yet started to bite - although there has already been plenty of impact in anticipation. Second, but only affecting the £ directly, UK unemployment announced today down to 7.1%. The Governor of the Bank of England stated the BoE would begin considering increasing interest rates when it hit 7%. I don't expect them to do so immediately but when it happens it will further strengthen the £. Third, the impact of whatever bombshell RTE is going throw into the kitty next (any guesses?).
In face of this I think my end April forecast of 3.89 is a little dodgy. Not that the number is wrong; merely the date - should have been March (February?).
P.S. An early answer to point 3. Today "Almost 100 prosecutors and judges are removed from their posts while 470 police are sacked or reassigned in Ankara."
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/92230/World/Region/TIMELINE-Turkeys-political-crisis.aspx
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Don't bring your liras over here either - today's buy rate at the Post Office means you'll have to give them 4.21 TL to get a British poond.
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Don't bring them over and don't take any back. Spend all you've got left on the last day. At 4.21 to convert back to £ it would almost be worthwhile buying something at Dalaman Airport!
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Steady on Colwyn :)
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Yeah, I got a bit carried away there.
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Is it worth changing our pounds into lira now in Uk?
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I think the rate will be 4.00 by the end of January and 6+ by The elections in March. Everytime he opens his mouth (RTE) the rate goes up.
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Diver baz is that a serious prediction?
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I'd go along with Baz's predictions - things will slide for a while, it's impossible to see any good news for the lira or the economy coming anytime soon.
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6plus in 2 months!
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How has this Tiger economy crashed so suddenly, I take it its the usual lack of confidence due to political instability ?
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I bet there are a lot of ex pats all over Turkey who are now thinking w t f have we done. And a lot who were planning to sell up are thinking that the price of there property is going to drop and drop.
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How has this Tiger economy crashed so suddenly, I take it its the usual lack of confidence due to political instability ?
a contributor maybe, but more likely the gourging of cheap foreign credit.
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I bet there are a lot of ex pats all over Turkey who are now thinking w t f have we done. And a lot who were planning to sell up are thinking that the price of there property is going to drop and drop.
Yes and quite a lot saying, what am I going to spend all these extra liars on?
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They'll find plenty of things
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Liars sounds about right!
Turkish will find it very expensive to buy from the English now.
Best thing we did was buying with money we could afford to lose ten years ago. Sounds smug I know but it was a conscious decision back then.
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3.75 - it's getting silly now
Through 3.80 already today. Past silly. How can the people that run this economy sit and watch this...
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I think they are too preoccupied watching their arses Keith.
Priorities innit.!!
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To be fair they (RTE and puppet Basci) are not doing nothing. Today they are predicted to throw $100million at the problem. The thing is that it doesn't work and the more they keep doing it the more it doesn't work.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-lira-approaches-23-threshold-against-us-dollar.aspx?pageID=238&nID=61444&NewsCatID=344 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-lira-approaches-23-threshold-against-us-dollar.aspx?pageID=238&nID=61444&NewsCatID=344)
And it looks like they threw a big chunk of it in at around 11.30 (Turkish time).
Chart shows $:TL.
(http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a138/ColwynJones/chart_zps77f243cc.png)
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Have no fear, we are hoping to come to Turkey for a family holiday and will need visas - so there's another $80 they can throw at it.
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Scunner - the George Soros of Calis. (Apparently you've been called a lot of things in Calis: but I bet not that).
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Never been called Soros in Turkey no - sarhoş once or twice :D
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"To be fair they (RTE and puppet Basci) are not doing nothing. Today they are predicted to throw $100million at the problem. The thing is that it doesn't work and the more they keep doing it the more it doesn't work."
Is that out of his own shoebox pocket.
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I toured around a few Turkish forums to see what people were saying about the current crisis. There is an astonishing amount of economic and financial illiteracy out. Many people seem genuinely to believe that the Turkish economy is almost entirely dependant on a tiny strip of land within one mile of the Aegean or Mediterranean coasts. A few of them suffer the delusion that the government relies on the money brought into the country by expats. One character proclaimed the theory that the Turkish government lowers the value of the lira in the Spring in order to attract more tourists into country and raises it again in the Autumn ("stands to reason" he said). And no-one on the forum corrected him on this - mind you he is a moderator.
Of course there are a few who have some sort of idea as to what is happening and some very well informed but they are pretty scarce. I am beginning to agree with Martin Lewis that basic understanding of personal finance should be taught in UK schools, except that things-teachers-should-do is already a very long list and getting longer.
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Best thing we did was buying with money we could afford to lose ten years ago. Sounds smug I know but it was a conscious decision back then.
Yeah, it does sound smug Stuart but it was exactly how we felt when we bought at Violet.
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I agree with you Colwyn both things re personal finance and also that to teach it would be on teacher's ever growing lists...
I admit I am relying heavily on people on here that seem to know what they are talking about re the lira to make my decisions and judgements whilst watching the rate in Turkey and also in uk...
I too am not at all meaning to sound smug and I genuinely feel for the people who are finding themselves in situations that they would rather not be in as in if they want to sell up and return to the UK they can not, but we never bought our property to make money on either in renting or hoping for it to increase in value and then sell at a gain...It is what it is a holiday home...
I am so glad of a lot of things at the mo and one of those things is that is we never sold up in the uk and moved to Turkey completely which six years ago I wanted to do sooo badly, once the novelty or adventure or whatever along with the rose coloured glasses wore off I simply could not bear to find myself in that predicament...
Again thanks for this great forum who does seem to have members that are in the know of what is occurring re these very unstable times...
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Are we on this slippery slope again............................
FIRST TURKISH LIRA
After periods pegged to the British pound and the French franc, a peg of 2.8 Turkish lira = 1 U.S. dollar was adopted in 1946 and maintained until 1960, when the currency was devalued to 9 Turkish lira = 1 dollar. From 1970, a series of hard, then soft pegs to the dollar operated as the value of the Turkish lira began to fall.
1966 – 1 U.S. dollar = 9 Turkish lira
1980 – 1 U.S. dollar = 90 Turkish lira
1988 – 1 U.S. dollar = 1,300 Turkish lira
1995 – 1 U.S. dollar = 45,000 Turkish lira
2001 – 1 U.S. dollar = 1,650,000 Turkish lira
2005 – 1 U.S. dollar = 1.29 new Turkish lira (The use of New Turkish lira, which drops 6 zeros from the currency Turkish lira, was implemented in 2005)
2010 – 1 U.S. dollar = 1.55 Turkish lira
19 October 2012 – 1 U.S. dollar = 1.79 Turkish lira
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ive decided mines coming out, id rather lose a few thousands now than run the risk of losing it all
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S&L, it seems you will joining large numbers of Turks in bailing out of TL in savings accounts: "So far, the currency’s weakness has been driven by Turkish companies and banks and by households switching savings into dollars"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/32e28ff2-81f2-11e3-87d5-00144feab7de.html (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/32e28ff2-81f2-11e3-87d5-00144feab7de.html)
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Showing 3.80 to the pound now. :o
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im just going to right it off as a bad decision or bad luck, and move on
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Scott don't feel like that - any investment has made interest and while few of us are lucky enough to enter and exit at the optimum times (if any of us) you have the option to choose at least. I know of quite a few people who lost everything in Turkey. And that is literally everything.
If you see something rolling towards a cliff your human instinct is to grab it, not to get the deck chair out and hope it stops before the edge.
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CBank changed its currency tactics today. Instead of "managed foreign-exchanged auctions" (I'm not sure what these are but I guess they are selling dollars in exchange for lira off-market) it is now intervening directly (to $100m) in foreign exchange sales. I don't know quite what the difference is but the Wall Street Journal article (below) says it is a more powerful measure and hasn't been tried for 2 years. Unfortunately it also says this won't work: one cynical financial expert said it just gave Turkish people the chance to buy more dollars with their lira - I guess that will please many. How well did this new tactic work? Well the TL is back over 3.80 to the £. CBank has another new scheme to introduce on Monday so, according to the article, it is hoping to dampen things down tomorrow to get through to its new idea. I don't know what this is yet so I'll have to do some research. I suspect it is imposing behind-the-scenes, under-the-counter interest rate increases for businesses and banks whilst keeping the headline Base Rate the same - thus saving RTE's and Basci's political face.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304632204579338160540599296?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304632204579338160540599296.html (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304632204579338160540599296?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304632204579338160540599296.html)
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Scott don't feel like that - any investment has made interest and while few of us are lucky enough to enter and exit at the optimum times (if any of us) you have the option to choose at least. I know of quite a few people who lost everything in Turkey. And that is literally everything.
If you see something rolling towards a cliff your human instinct is to grab it, not to get the deck chair out and hope it stops before the edge.
Excellent reply Keith. :)
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Scunner I think I'm misreading your reply ( the written word and all that!) are you suggesting I wait? Or that Getting out is right? Or none of the above!
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It was more that gaining interest previously should help offset a certain amount of losses caused by exchange rate changes - the loss overall may not be as much as you think if you bail out now. Nothing ventured nothing gained, we could all have joined a day later/bailed a month earlier but few get it spot on.
Don't see it as a disastrous venture if you pull out now. And don't fiddle while Rome burns :o
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I see, thank you
Fiddle while Rome burns! What's that about!
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Fiddle while Rome burns! What's that about!
The source of this phrase is the story that Nero played the fiddle (violin) while Rome burned, during the great fire in AD 64.
There are two major flaws with the story. Firstly, there was no such instrument as the fiddle (violin) in first century Rome. There's no definitive date for the invention of the violin, or of its synonym as fiddle, but it certainly wasn't until at least the 16th century. If Nero played anything during the Rome fire, it was probably the lyre.
Secondly, the story may be completely false and Nero may very well not have neglected his duty at all. Nero died four years later, and we should remember that history is written by the victors. The historian Suetonius records the Nero was responsible for the fire and that he watched it from a tower while playing an instrument and singing about the destruction of Troy. Others record this story merely as a rumour.
By modern-day standards Nero certainly appears a bizarre character, but that doesn't make this story true. Roman scholars differ over interpretations of events surrounding the fire. The rivalries and conflicting accounts, even those in contemporary reports, make the 'fiddling' story uncertain.
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I have decided to stick and keep everything crossed and see what occurs in the next few weeks, if we lose it will mean I have to work for one more year but at least I have a choice unlike some poor folk...
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So if you are fortunate enough to transfer a large sum of money to Turkey at the peak exchange rate (say 6.0 ?)
and interest rates are then increased to curb the slide, you make more interest on the investment - SIMPLES !!!
Your only enemy then is inflation (offset by your investment interest)
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If we knew what the peak will it would be very easy
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The peak might be 1.5 million to the pound
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What will be will be (as Doris Day once sung) :)
Given the choice of retiring at 60/55 or having to work till 70/65 to have an affordable retirement
I think we'll be risking Turkey in October.
(On the other hand we might forget Calis altogether and take that timeshare in Chernobyl that I
mentioned in a previous reply to the naysayers!!! )
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By all means, live your dream but I think I would be leaving the bulk of my money in the UK. Interest is low I know but the situation in Turkey is far too volatile at the moment to be investing large amounts of money.
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wise words
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Volatile is the word Marggie this morning the rates on offer at change shops can be as high as 3.73tl and one of the banks I noticed was 3.81tl to £ these are tourist rates!!!Those of us who are fortunate to be here and nibbling daily at rates are indeed getting a good deal.As for investment long term thats different scenario.
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And the bottom line for interest rates is that they are way higher than UK rates for a reason.
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I see on Travelfx this morning we can get 3.73 in the U.K. Absolutely amazing rate. Never seen it so high.
http://affiliate.travelfx.co.uk/BestPricePromise/29/index.php
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CLICK. 3.85.
I've been trying to find out what it is that CBank will be doing on Monday. The policy is Additional Monetary Tightening (AMT). This is a short-term rise in the rate applied to overnight lending/borrowing rates and is fiercely difficult to understand. As far as I can work out - and I could do with some help on this - it is like this. At the end of each trading day banks settle their accounts, paying off all those things that have been paid in and taken out. For example, when you use your Norwich & Peterborough card to withdraw funds from a Garanti ATM at the end of the day N&P has to settle up with Garanti. But Garanti also has to settle Turks/expats using their Garanti cards in Santander ATMs in the UK. So at the end of each trading day some banks are in surplus and some have a shortage. Those in surplus lend to CBank; those with shortage borrow from them. The overnight rate is the interest the CBank charges when doing this. Raising this interest rate is like raising base rate but only on a temporary basis - one day at a time.
On Monday 27th CBank will raise the O/N from 7.75% to 9% and do the same on Thursday 30th. What will happen? The only study of this I have found (see below) shows that in normal trading conditions ForEx stability is improved. But I have two problems with this. The improvement is only temporary and goes up as soon as AMT is removed; and, of course, conditions in Turkey are hardly "normal" at the moment. This may be why most financial commentators are not convinced it will do anything to reverse the downward trend of the Lira. We'll see next week.
http://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/46615.html (http://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/46615.html)
CLICK 3.86. CLICK 3.87.
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So its their equivalent of LIBOR (which I think means London Inter Bank Offered Rate) which has been scandalised recently as the big banks were fiddling overnight it to make more money?
Looks like when a government does it - it is OK?
Like you - I think it seems like a pin prick when something much larger (scale wise) is needed - like I said before 2% (max) increase in interest rates?
But there again if the Germans say it worked in the past - who knows??
MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany
Abstract: Since the global financial crisis, Central Banks have used various policy tools to sustain financial stability besides price stability.
Additional Monetary Tightening is one of these tools that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey used in 2011-2012. The effects of this tool on the exchange rate are the main theme of this paper. Our analysis indicates that additional monetary tightening has a significant role in reducing volatility in the exchange rate. It is also shown that during the days of additional tightening Turkish Lira appreciated against the emerging market currencies.
There is a lot more but that will do nicely for now............. ;)
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What will be will be (as Doris Day once sung) :)
Given the choice of retiring at 60/55 or having to work till 70/65 to have an affordable retirement
I think we'll be risking Turkey in October.
(On the other hand we might forget Calis altogether and take that timeshare in Chernobyl that I
mentioned in a previous reply to the naysayers!!! )
Well said Kevin, you could sit around forever waiting, and then spend the rest of your days wishing you had done it. Like anything worth having it is never simple or easy, other wise every bugger would be doing it!
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Ian
Yes, it is like LIBOR except that LIBOR is calculated (or rigged) by the major UK commercial banks on the basis of reportedmarket rates and is the normal, permanent mode.. What we are dealing with on Monday is the official Central Bank of Turkey rate being calculated, exceptionally and for a limited period only, on the basis of what it thinks would be the market rates. Normally CBT tries to determine/influence market rates by setting a notional overnight rate. But of course things aren't normal.
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XE Currency Converter 24/01/2014
ConverterRatesNewsInfo
1.00 GBP = 3.85363 TRY
British Pound ↔ Turkish Lira
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I found this interesting
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/24/emerging-market-currency-chaos-stock-markets
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The AKP will be along shortly to tell you the Guardian is part of the "Parallel Papers "
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Parallel Universe more likely.
I posted this article because
a) The Turkish Deputy PM offers helpful clarification
b) I think the reporter was named perfectly for a career as a Telegraph scribe
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/10596296/Emerging-market-rout-turns-serious-punctures-exuberance-in-Davos.html
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Well Ali Babacan might be right about one thing; albeit at the cost showing that his boss is wrong. Despite all RTE's huffing and puffing about foreign financial plotters bringing down the Lira this FT article (see below) says very little foreign withdrawal has taken place either from shares (down this year from 66% to 62%) or from bonds (down from 25% to 22%). No sign here of large capital outflows. So what accounts for the drop in the Lira? According to the FT: "So far, the currency’s weakness has been driven by Turkish companies and banks and by households switching savings into dollars." This runs contrary to what has widely been believed which is that RTE is scaring off international investors, but it seems to be backed up by data. Instead it seems that it is the Turkish (companies and individuals) who are in a headlong rush to get out of Lira and into some safer currency - especially $.
www.ft.com/cms/s/0/32e28ff2-81f2-11e3-87d5-00144feab7de.html (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/32e28ff2-81f2-11e3-87d5-00144feab7de.html)
Sorry. This links seems not to be working. But you can get to the article by Googling "ft lira tumbles" [other search engines are available].
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Would that suggest 'everyday' Turkish people have lost faith in RTE? Because it was them who voted his party into government - could mean they're on the way out? I still thought he would walk any future election because most of the (non-coastal) country support him come what may.
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I would assume that the people getting out of Lira would be wealthy individuals who 'manage their portfolio'. Erdogan' support amongst poorer citizens, especially in central and eastern Anatolia are not likely to be taking much notice of this crisis yet. They may start to do so when prices really start rising steeply.
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I'm not so sure - I suppose my thoughts are influenced by memories of the queues of locals at Turkish banks on a Friday afternoon, taking all their money out because it was a Bank holiday weekend and they didn't fully trust the bank to last 3 days. They'd be there again on the Tuesday to put it all back in.
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If you're right S. the April elections will be even more interesting than already anticipated.
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I would assume that the people getting out of Lira would be wealthy individuals who 'manage their portfolio'.
Not necessarily - many Turks do not trust the lira and much prefer "hard" currencies or gold when it comes to their nest eggs. That's why it's so easy (and common place) to open up GBP/EUR/USD accounts with local banks.
I also suspect a lot of businesses are increasing their foreign currency reserves as opposed to simply switching from the lira. Within the business community contracts are often written in USD/EUR in preference to the lira. With regards to employment contracts, I knew a few folks in Istanbul who have lira contracts but they really are in the minority - most go for EUR/USD/GBP.
JF
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That's interesting John. I'd never thought about why Turkish banks offered non-Lira accounts so readily. I guess I had assumed it was just in expat areas and large cities like Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir. Quite a contrast with Brits moving to Turkey, many of whom seem enthusiastic about plunging their £s into TL account to get their hands on the "large" interest rates - although not so large when you take inflation into account.
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Quite a contrast with Brits moving to Turkey, many of whom seem enthusiastic about plunging their £s into TL account to get their hands on the "large" interest rates - although not so large when you take inflation into account.
Yeah, this is an oft debated topic up north in the 'Bul.
A good few of our friends have been there a long time, from way before the mass exodus from the UK and Scandinavian countries to buy up Mugla, Aydin and Antalya. They can remember, as can my missus, when a loaf could double in price between asking for it and paying for it. This historical distrust, along with the Turks natural distrust, of the lira has been tempered slightly over the past few years when there was a certain stability in the economy (and of course, the lira).
However, this has not been sufficient for them to plunge large volumes of hard currency into high interest lira accounts - that's not to say no-one does, just that they are careful with their exposure. No one I know has had any serious amount of money in lira for nearly a year (some might, but they ain't admitting it!). They also simply cant understand the logic whereby someone sells up in the UK, puts significant wedge into high interest lira account then lives off the interest (supplemented possibly by UK pension) - and to be honest, I don't either. When you factor in inflation, especially in some significant sectors, the net gain after tax isn't quite so attractive.
JF
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we just spent the weekened with our turkish friends (unfortunatly in england!) hes convinced that it will come back down again, im still not so sure, and will be withdrawing as my bonds finish, 1 is in the next few days, 1 in march, but 1 in september which is th one im really worried about
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You live in Folkstone, why did you buy so much lira - just curious.
If its a serious wedge then maybe the long game is worth a punt... and I do mean a punt. If I'd serious money in lira then I'd think twice/ thrice about pulling it out. Not sure what I'd eventually decide, but wouldn't be swayed by the ramblings of various punters on an online forum (and I include myself in that).
JF
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hi John
we bought in Lira either to gather interest return to GBP and use for investment in England, or long term use in Turkey
i find the advice and "ramblings!" on here extremely useful, and thank you all for them, there are many people on here more experienced with the workings of turkeys political and monetary systems than i am, maybe thats why ive bought so much Lira?
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3.92 just now, It's not getting any stringer,
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I don't know when CBank was hoping that Additional Monetary tightening would kick in, but it sure ain't happening yet. It is currently through 3.92. That is beyond my end-April bet for the charity game (3.89). That's 2% down against the £.
Sorry Rimms - same time as yours.
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3.92 and rising, be 4.00 by February I think. :)
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If you've got your pot in Lira, are feeling somewhat bruised and are into Schadenfreude then here's a crumb of comfort. Stock exchanges in London and other European capitals have lost 3.5% of value since Friday morning and New York will probably join them when its markets open this afternoon. One of the main reasons for this is reported to be worries over the financial instability of emerging countries - of which Turkey and its tumbling Lira stands in first place. So that has knocked several hundred quid off my stocks & shares ISAs. Boo-hoo.
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It's always going to be a worry when you have changed your money over to a different currency because you inevitably follow the exchange rate, just in case you ever need to change it back. I think most people who have come to live here will have taken the long term view and hope that this economy which only 9 months ago was being described as a 'Tiger Economy' and one of the five most strongly emerging markets on the planet, yet here we are, following a number of political problems and looming elections with the currency in seeming free fall.
In the 1930s your pound bought you more than 5$ and at a point in the 1980s you could hardly get more than 1$.
Can a Country and it's whole economy become a basket case in less than a year? I hope not but we will see.
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Can a Country and it's whole economy become a basket case in less than a year?
It happened to all the countries in North America and the EU in 2008. It depends on what the economy is built. Are Turkey's economic foundations secure? Or is its impressive growth based on unsustainable personal credit and international debt - i.e. borrowing from the future and from others countries? A different topic maybe.
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Really good analogy Colwyn, who'd have thought just a few years ago that today the UK would have such a strong pound, falling unemployment, rising manufacturing and exports sector. Talking about change, the lira has just strengthened about twelve points in the time it took me to write this. It's a funny old game !
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maybe its on the slide!
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Not slide. Slippery slope.
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one bond finishes tomorrow so im changing that back, its the one that finishes in september that worries me
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Currently the Lira is 1% up against the $ - yes UP! Early reports suggest that CBank chucked in a big load of dollars to protect the currency this morning and it didn't work. So it has called an emergency Monetary Policy Committee meeting for tomorrow to. So the Lira seems to have rallied after that news. That meeting should be really interesting. I have to suppose there will be big backtracking, climb down, U-turning and interests rates will be raised. But will RTE allow that?
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Turkey in emergency meeting on lira
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Sorry folks my copying and pasting has not worked!!! There is a link on Facebook with that heading, I have to go back to work now so don't have time to do it again until this evening maybe someone else can find it and redo if not I will do it tonight....
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25913095
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"It set out its plans in a statement at midnight (22:00) GMT Tuesday." (BBC News)
Well obviously I realized that Scunner was a very clever chappie but I hadn't realized that in CBF he had created a device that operates 36 hours into the future.
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the buy back with finans bank is now 3.70 a change of .11 in 3 hours
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I now read that it is the outcome of tomorrow's emergency meeting that will be announced at midnight Tuesday (10pm GMT). That still sounds odd to me. Why is CBank announcing decisions at midnight? Is a very long, dissent-full meeting expected? Are the reports still wrong? Should be OK for you, S&L, if the bounce-back holds good for your withdrawal.
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Sounds like a good Tuesday evening, Liverpool vs Everton follow by the announcement
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The timing of the announcement may be because the Turkish stock market will be closed.?
I don't think the Lira will settle this side of the elections and I think it will rise a lot further.
Gulens just given his first televised interview in 16 years and discusses how people should vote. !!
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Is the midnight announcement timed for the opening of the Tokyo stockmarket, the first major market to open each day ?
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No it's at midnight because they prefer to be sacked just before bed than to have to get up early for it.
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Finansbank back up to 3.75
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According to a Reuters Poll of 31 Turkish and International Banks,the majority believe the Central Bank will raise Interest Rates by between 1.25% to 4.25%.One forecast no change to rates.
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All this urgency and emergency - why was it decided not to touch interest rates at the recent meeting, then days later a hastily arranged emergency meeting - wasn't it an emergency when they decided no change was needed?
Indecision and panic don't help much when running your central bank.
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If they person who predicted 4.25% works for a Turkish bank I bet he/she will be keeping quiet about it in public.
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3.610469 TL sell rate with Finans Bank
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Debenhams where just over 3.81 today. Very good for a rate in the U.K.
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Debenhams where just over 2.81 today. Very good for a rate in the U.K.
2.81 is a very bad rate Jacqui. 3.81 would be a very good rate in the UK ;)
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3.81 must be better than you would get in Turkey today. Debenhams might be be better sticking to selling frocks or whatever it usually does.
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Showing 3.76 at Debenhams online so definitely possible earlier. They will maybe offset it with their buy rate - currently a whopping 4.2988 to buy a pound sterling.
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I got 3.66 today at the official change shop in Calis
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garanti currently showing 3.61 fall from 3,92 this morning
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No, Scunner, Phil went to Debenhams today when it was showing 3.76 and the assistant told him if he could find a better rate on the internet to come back and they would beat it He found 3.81 so he went back and they gave him 3.81.50
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I am so glad that I know bugger all about macro (or is it micro) economics.
When we are next in Calis, whenever that is, I will take my hard earned pennies to Zumrut and gladly accept any rate that he is offering
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No, Scunner, Phil went to Debenhams today when it was showing 3.76 and the assistant told him if he could find a better rate on the internet to come back and they would beat it He found 3.81 so he went back and they gave him 3.81.50
I don't doubt it Jacqui - but you said they were offering 2.81, not 3.81. I see you have edited it to 3.81 now ;)
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Online now. Sainsburys still offering 3.74 through money supermarket
I've just gambled and changed £2000. That gave me 7480 lira
Plus they gave me £4 off with nectar card
We will see if it pays off, but I'm happy with that
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Forgive me and I know full well that everything is relative. but the difference between 3.815 and 3.760 per £ 100 is 5 lira Wow -how amazing is that
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I don't know money market terminology but last night I think I became a "bull". I bought £1500 worth of lira at 3.812, no commission, free delivered. In my uneducated opinion the only options for the lira crisis meeting were devalue or increase interest rates.
For those interested I used travelmoneymax.com and opted for Travel Premier, part of I.C.E.
At the time my desktop monitor was showing 3.93 and is now showing 3.621.
It'll be interesting to see if I get "bit on the bum".
I edited this a while ago and corrected 3.93 lira to 3.843. however it has vanished along with scunners post about the 66K apartment sale, mystified!!!
Now scunners post has come back!!
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Forgive me and I know full well that everything is relative. but the difference between 3.815 and 3.760 per £ 100 is 5 lira Wow -how amazing is that
Yes Highlander, all relative - now what is the difference between 3.75/£ and 2.75/£ over £60,000 - this is relative to someone who sells their apartment at 2.75 (May 2013) and in the last few days has to bring the money to UK in sterling...
Don't worry, I'll do the maths for you
Their £60,000 would now be worth £44,000 - that's £16,000 simply gone in 9 months. Sadly 8% interest p.a. on 60k won't help much over the same 8 months.
A bit more hard hitting that your 5 TL example.
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Finans bank now offering 3.47 to the pound, a bit differnt than yesterday's 3.81! A massive difference if turning back into gbp
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From the Hurritey this morning.
Turkey's Central Bank hiked all of its key interest rates in dramatic fashion at an emergency midnight policy meeting Jan. 28.
The bank raised its overnight lending rate to 12 percent from 7.75 percent, its one-week repo rate to 10 percent from 4.5 percent, and its overnight borrowing rate to 8 percent from 3.5 percent - all much sharper moves than economists had forecast.
Some win, some lose.
TC
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I note that Travelfx have gone down to 3.50 whereas Debenhams are still offering just over 3.76 The Debenhams rate seems to be set for the day, so, it may be worth members getting their Lira with Debenhams today. http://finance.debenhams.com/travel-money/overview/
Re H's question. If you are told you can take the 3.76 or go and look for a higher rate on the net and it will be bettered, what would you do? Just take the 3.76 or look for a better rate? there would be nothing to lose. :)
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Jacqui I am trying to but some tl from Debenhams do you know if they deliver as I can not find a delivery option and we don't have a Debenhams near us, thanks ;)
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...or indeed "lose" just like the Toffees ! ;)
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Finans bank now offering 3.47 to the pound, a bit differnt than yesterday's 3.81! A massive difference if turning back into gbp
3.622380 TL this morning! this is one crazy country!
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Wow! That is a hell of a rate rise! 4.25%! Right up at the top end of expectations. If that doesn't sort out the Lira problem in the short-term then it is really deep trouble. But this morning has started in the familiar way of recently - down to 3.7 from a best position of under 3.6.
Erdogan must be spitting feathers and his advisers walking on eggshells.
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does this mean banks will raise the interest rate? the bonds on offer appear to be the same?
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If using billions of dollar reserves to buy lira didn't work, and significant hikes in interest rates doesn't help after the first 12 hours, can we conclude that this is very serious indeed..?
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While the causes of these problems remain unchanged I think the answer is yes.
And I don't see any changes in the near future, sadly.
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Yes interest rates are already being put up in banks see my seperate post on Garanti.
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If using billions of dollar reserves to buy lira didn't work, and significant hikes in interest rates doesn't help after the first 12 hours, can we conclude that this is very serious indeed..?
Think we need to wait till the American markets open to get a better idea of how this bump will effect things.
JF
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Jacqui I am trying to but some tl from Debenhams do you know if they deliver as I can not find a delivery option and we don't have a Debenhams near us, thanks ;)
Sorry Karen, I don't know if they deal online, why not ring up and ask? Phil works in Aberdeen so it's a short walk to Debenham for him.
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The rate is bouncing about just under 3.7 at the moment. We will have to see if it settles there today and for the rest of week to tell whether the CBank move has worked. This may not seem a huge gain since the rate was only 3.75 when the decision was announced but probably most of the benefit was gained on Monday when the announcement of the emergency meeting immediately reversed the run on the lira that was looking only hours away from going over 4.00. There was almost universal expectation of a rate rise so markets already took it into account. The "extra" small improvement may represent the response to the unexpected large scale of the hike. On the other hand I have read one commentator wondering if the hike was too big to be credible and comparing it with Norman Lamont hike from 10% to 15% in 1992 which didn't work. I do wonder how long CBank can maintain this very higher rate. I'm glad I'm not paying off a Turkish credit card or a small business looking for a bank loan.
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Decent article in todays FT: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/007a630e-88c4-11e3-bb5f-00144feab7de.html#axzz2rmiwUb2n (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/007a630e-88c4-11e3-bb5f-00144feab7de.html#axzz2rmiwUb2n)
JF
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Sell Rate
3.690172 TL
Back to normal
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Debenhams have changed their prices today so it's now 3.61.
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In the pipeline. Riza Sharraf: A tale of gold smuggling; Iranian sanction breaking; bribery of ministers and their sons; favours done; police swoops; suspect arrested, thrown in prison and awaiting trial. Not a new Hollywood movies. Instead the trigger for the corruption charges of December 17th and subsequently. The court case should prove interesting daily reading - if the press are permitted to report it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-29/turkey-scandal-places-jailed-millionaire-at-center-of-gold-trail.html
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The Lira is on the run again! Just gone through 2.3 to the dollar and showing no signs of slowing the fall at the moment. It was 2.25 when the hike was announced.
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Mid market rate now 3.78
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Hi- advice needed
I have almost 7tl to invest- what should I do?
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Well Colwyn I am sure that was a book I have read before!
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Looks like earlier gains against the GBP are gradually being eroded. Went as high as 3.58 and now trading just under 3.80 - went as low as 3.84 a little while ago.
JF
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Hi- advice needed
I have almost 7tl to invest- what should I do?
Buy a litre and a bit of petrol then sell it back to the garage when it is 20tl/litre.
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The question on every ones lips but no one dares ask :) has the price of efes gone up
Actually this is a serious question because a lot of people relate the price of beer or a meal to their spends when on holiday, I am sure I read somewhere that it used to be the price of a big Mac
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Quite right, trainer. Big Mac used to be an absolutely standardized product all over the world (I say this with all the authority of someone who has never been into a McDonald's in his life). Therefore economists found Big Mac pricing a good rough-and-ready guide to the cost/standard of living in different countries. Also, on Monday I heard a guy from the Carlsberg Brewery in Nottingham talking about the Beer Index saying that beer sales were a very good indicator of people's spending power - which, he claimed, was slowly picking up as UK started clawing its way out of the depth of the recession. Efes as a standardized mass product is actually quite a good indicator but heavily influenced by AKP deterrent pricing - for health reasons of course, not religious ones).
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Is now the time to buy lira - is it now going to fall downwards?
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Just been offered 3.76 in UK - good deal?
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Its only a good deal if, when the lira drops even further, you don't start moaning that you wish you'd held on :)
JF
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3.76 was to buy lira with £
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My feeling is that if such a huge hike in interest rates can't strengthen the lira significantly over the 24 hours following the rate increase, then days with no huge interest rate hike are going to be pretty grim for the lira.
3.76 may look a bit poor for £1 this time next week. But as Mr JF suggests, it's all up to you and how you feel about it really.
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Its up to you - its your money and I know I would do what *I* feel is best, rather than canvassing opinions on here. We're all keyboard traders and since I pulled almost every penny out of lira in May last year no direct interest in the rates.
3.76 sounds good today, but it may be poor tomorrow, or not. Not trying to be evasive or deliberately vague, honest!
JF
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Many thanks for your advice
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Before the Turkish market opened this morning overnight trading had lifted the Lira to 3.58. Now it stands at a little over 3.71. What can we tell from this? Well, not very much really. I suppose we can say it shows the rate hike wasn't quite the magic bullet that some people were hoping but the rate at the end of today was better for the TL than yesterday - and you can't say that for many days this month. It might have been different if a 1.5% hike had been introduced in December before the freefall began but people have got used to escaping from Lira an it may take some days for this sentiment to change. My seaweed is neither wet nor dry: so it is as undecided as I am. In the longer term I expect worse news for the Government and that can only hurt the Lira.
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One thing that may (and indeed may not) play a part is the number of people waiting for the rate to drop so they can bail out of the lira and get their pounds. We have a number on CBF and we are a tiny part of things.
The theory (maybe not the practice) being, as interest rates are increased, the stronger the lira gets, the more people sell their lira - which is surely not going to help. Maybe the number of British in Fethiye doing or planning to do that is not exactly significant but when you think of all the resorts and cities, and all the foreign nationals, it might be.
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Fed continues QE tapering programme - expect slight fall again as markets open on Thursday?
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3.777861 TL
Finansbank sell rate, so back where it was before the announcement
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Interesting article on bbc website
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25959096
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Lira is holding up surprisingly well today - maybe some calm waters until the March elections bouncing between 3.65 and 3.75 ?
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Yes, a pretty good day for the Lira with the dollar pushed under 2.25. I suppose after $20billion+ spent on support (a third of Turkey's reserves) and a big rate rise of 4.25% (which financial commentators have labelled "Shock and Awe" ;) I guess Turkey has bought some calm. But I wonder whether this will last until March, Ian. We haven't heard Erdogan's response yet, corruption court cases are in the pipeline and at any moment RTE may declare telekinetic warfare on London and New York or some equally barmy project.
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As long as they don't arrest his son Bilal - my biggest fear!!!
WHY - as he is the co-owner of BIM - where I deserve a loyalty card and that type of reckless action may result in my weekly shop going up dramatically ;)
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Here is an article that predicts that in the short-term the Lira will bounce around between $:TL rates of a high of 2.30 to a low of 2.22. If the Lira falls above/below this band then resistance/support correction forces will apply before 2.34/2.195 to return the rates to the band. At current £:$ rates that is a band of 3.8 to 3.6 (approx).
The analysis is based on something called "Fibonacci replacement". This is highly technical and based on financial mathematics. The best I can get to understanding it, is that it is based on "random walk theory". This asks you to imagine a drunk wandering along a road. There is no way you can predict where the drunk will stagger next but, generally speaking, he stays on the road. If he goes off the road and over the pavement he staggers back again. But over a long time he goes further and further to one side or the other. This is an extremely speculative interpretation of Random Walk Theory into which I have no intention of delving over the next weeks in order to gain a better understanding. Perhaps someone could test it by observing someone who has been enjoying considerable Efes before the price goes up - again.
However, we might watch the Lira rate over the next month to see if it stays inside the 3.8/3.6 band before it begins heading off in the same direction (downwards) as it was going before the intervention.
http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/em-rundown:-where%27s-the-crisis-heading-to-next%3F-20140130207372/ (http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/em-rundown:-where%27s-the-crisis-heading-to-next%3F-20140130207372/)
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I think my 3.65 / 3.75 was not far out then ;)
PS And I don't even drink !!!
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Sounds a good bet Ian
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Good call there Ian. Did Fibonaccia method; of was it just watching fellow CBF memebers on their way home? The band is a short-term prediction. What happens in the longer term?
ISTANBUL, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Turkish households and firms are hoarding dollars, suggesting they have little faith the lira will be spared a further emerging markets sell-off despite a massive rate hike this week.
Turks, as JohnF keeps reminding us have keen memories haven't forgotten 2001.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/31/turkey-economy-idUSL5N0L51KA20140131
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That Fibonacci was a busy bugger. There's the Fibonacci Sequence of numbers, the Fibonacci Spiral, the Fibonacci Search Technique, Fibonacci Cubes to name but a few.
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My personal opinion is after March elections - it will just break through the 4 level - but then it will stabilise again towards the Summer at 3.75 as I believe that is its new level as long as there is not an emerging markets crisis - (which the Americans can control if they so wish) or ongoing fighting on the streets of major cities due to political unrest - and if there is - then the sky's the limit!
I suspect Erdogan will get a slight bl**dy nose but not enough to make him stand down and if he exerts his usual iron grip approach then that would probably be viewed as a better position by the markets - irrespective of his policies - than riots!
I also believe there is a "clandestine" plot to get Gul into power and that would be a very positive move but I cannot get my head around how this can be achieved without some serious tears?
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That Fibonacci was a busy bugger. There's the Fibonacci Sequence of numbers, the Fibonacci Spiral, the Fibonacci Search Technique, Fibonacci Cubes to name but a few.
And Fibonacci with seafood and parmesan.
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What sites do people use to check the lira prices?
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Hi - I use this on the XE app but you get the same information here and if you click the "graphs" icon to the left that is very useful.
http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=GBP&To=TRY
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thanks Ian, this seems like the one i use, it stops at 22:00 friday night, te postoffice and finans bank are showing a lot lower, do you know why this is
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Can't say - all I know is that usually my bank TEB offers very close to this rate on a 3 plus or 3 minus basis depending on if you are buying or selling.
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i cant seem to sell my lira back to pounds, do i have to close the account to get the option?
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It can be an option like 'buy foreign currency' rather than 'change TL' - not sure which bank you are with but try that.
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It can be an option like 'buy foreign currency' rather than 'change TL' - not sure which bank you are with but try that.
That's correct - you do need a GB account to place the funds and from memory on TEB it is under INVESTMENTS or FOREIGN EXCHANGE
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im with Finnans bank, but i cant find the option anywhere? ive got some sat in a daily interest account waiting for the right time (i hope) to cange it over
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also in the daily interest account its getting 9.50% the 32 day time deposits are offering 8.80% this makes no sense to to me, or am i missing something?
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3.636649 TL is the buying rate at Finanas bank now with the exchange rate at round 3.64
earlier in the week the buying rate was 3.47 with the exchange rate at 3.71
Could anyone shed any light on this for me?
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looks like its on the move again
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Today's decline is because of this statement:
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-339226-.html
Can't imagine it will drop through my range of 3.65 to 3.75 though.......
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The present Mrs H bought yesterday. Think she got 3.39 which matters not beacuse she won't spend any of it ;)
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Ian. I admire your confidence in your predictions but TL has been stronger than 3.65 for a week until today.
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Ian. I admire your confidence in your predictions but TL has been stronger than 3.65 for a week until today.
See the chart and click 1 week on the side for period:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=TRY
1 or 2 % variance is acceptable as that is usually " trimmed/taken" in commissions anyway ;)
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Nice line that, Ian. Think I'll borrow it for my explanation of how I didn't win the End-April Prediction charity game.
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Hi, can some give me an idea of current £ to Lira rate out there at the moment. Looks like it has dropped from the 3.70 ish rate and wondering if I should buy in UK before I leave for my next trip out there on the 30/3/14. Thanks.
Kevin
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3.66 in Garanti bank on 20/02. Today in fethiye change shops 3.57.
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Managed to get 3:52 on Friday in Thomas Cook so not a big difference at the moment !!
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3.62 in Seker Bank this morning.
WW
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i must say im impressed, nearly 13000 views! just shows we all like to keep an eye on the pennies
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Thanks for the responses, 3.43 in M&S today so might be worth waiting until I come out, although will check out Thomas Cook and if 3.60 in the UK, I will purchase. Thanks again Guys.
Kevin
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Steady decline this week, phone tapping issue prob got a bit to do with it.
Five Day Graph (http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPTRY=X&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=)
JF
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Currently reading down 1.66% against the dollar today. I think that's more change than any time since January.
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Currently reading down 1.66% against the dollar today. I think that's more change than any time since January.
What the market people describe as absence of certainty, even if that certainty is Reg!!
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Changed some money this evening near Liverpool St London and got 3.59 :)
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Got £300 from the ATM at HSBC in Fethiye at 14.00hrs today. Got TL3.66 at the money changers.
Don.M
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Don, don't use the guy in the shops opposite Migros, lots of warning about him on this Forum. In fact, perhaps time for another picture of him for the new members
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Thanks Jacqui I use the one on the corner just down the road from him at the start of the one way system.
DonM.
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3.56 in M&S today, so got some!
I agree the guy across road from Migros, fell for that once years ago, never again. His picture is actually on the forum somewhere! ;)
Kevin
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Hi Keven,
What's his scam then? I've never been tempted but it's nice to know what he's up to. :) :)
DonM
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He makes it look as if you are getting a great price by adding lots of digits after the lira, I have been looking on the forum to find his picture and more details of how he constructs his scam but I am unable to locate it. He wears glasses, he is a small chap, and has a clothes shop directly opposite the Migros on the front in Fethyie. Not sure if many would fit that description though!
Kevin
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Look under change man on search. Top left hand corner
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Not in the clothes shop any more has moved a few doors along and is operating from an emlak office, Surely it's not his new venture, the mind boggles !!!
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When he scammed us a few years ago he was adding it all up on his calculator and said something like 'shall I round it up' and we said yes as, at first, it sounded like he was doing us a favour! It was a couple of hours later that OH said 'Why did he have to round it up?' So after doing our own calculations realised we'd been done! >:(
It wasn't for much, but I don't like the idea that someone like this slimeball has been doing this for so long and probably still gets away with it on people who are new to Fethiye and not had the luxury of being warned about him on here.
We walked past him last year and he asked if we wanted any change - I'm afraid my response is unprintable!! ;)
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He tries to confuse people by asking if they have 5 lira. If the rate was, say 3.9. He would offer you 3.0.10 So you think you are getting 3.10.
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I have had conversations with several different people who say he didn't rip them off, then as I describe some of his many tricks they realise, there and then, that he did.
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Do you still have that picture of him Scunner? might be good to let new members see him, just before the season starts.
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I do, I'm phone only right now but will dig his charming face so all are aware. His nephew contacted me last year (his English is better than his uncle) telling me to remove all references and images of his uncle or be taken to court. I await that invitation :)
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He tries to confuse people by asking if they have 5 lira. If the rate was, say 3.9. He would offer you 3.0.10 So you think you are getting 3.10.
And this is exactly how his scam works -
He creates confusion so some are led to believe that 3.10 is a better rate than 3.9. By saying "three point ten" instead of 3.1
Simple but effective.
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(http://s1.postimg.org/xfuc7d3gr/image.jpg) (http://postimg.org/image/xfuc7d3gr/)
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Thanks Susie, that's great. I have saved a copy of this picture and it would be a good idea if other members do too, so they can, if needed show it to new visitor's to the area.
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He or his friend are usually sitting on a scooter outside the shop,he will get up when he sees you coming,
And ask you if you want change currency.
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I think you can even buy a house from this nice kind gentleman now. I think he has the emlak next door.
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Hmmm, an interesting but horrifying thought....
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So what is the exchange rate today in Fethiye?
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3.6Ten
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I've just been checking our Tescos credit card and we are getting 3.59 lira exchange rate. :) :) It would be interesting to know what the exchange rate is like on the other cards?
DonM
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Or from our trusted friend 3.ten (3.10)
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The Visa rate for yesterday was 3.666 (applicable to Nationwide and Halifax Clarity credit cards and N&P debit card).
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I meant in The Turkish banks but thank you.. Same as a lot of people we are waiting with baited breath for it to go down.. Was that a pig flying past?
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Mercury, I was replying to Don who had a query about his Tesco card. I assumed that was Tesco UK.
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It was a UK Tescos card I was asking about.
Don
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Oops sorry..
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Steadily climbed today
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Sod it..
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It's a real tough situation for those with lira and ultimately needing to change to pounds. I used to think I set the sterling/lira exchange rate - if I needed lira the rate would plummet in the days before my transaction, if I needed to change lira to pounds the rate would soar just before.
We brought our money home at a rate which was devastatingly bad, yet with hindsight we are so glad we did. The rate is far worse now. I suppose it's easy to tell people to bite the bullet and get out, because I do believe that. But I know only to well how hard a decision that is to make.
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Mines still in Scunner, I keep thinking if it remains steady I can recoup my losses with the interest, I bet I'm not the only one who has thought this before!
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Bad press=Weakend lira
I'm starting to get the hang if this
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I have left mine in the banks and am still hoping that there will be some form of honeymoon period after the elections to stabilise the rate a bit, as is usual after elections whoever wins! So I would suggest not biting the bullet just yet.
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Scott and Lisa, same here on the interest side at least it is making something compared to UK rates it's still better on that side with the interest rates, just need a miracle now to see it return to sub 3.25 for us. Perhaps like Scunner said on his luck, I should come back out and build a villa as I know it will plummet then. ;)
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I could really do with taking it out now to use for a deposit for a house, so fingers crossed