Author Topic: Lira getting Stronger - Why?  (Read 291587 times)

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Offline jackstee

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #760 on: March 13, 2017, 13:49:51 PM »
OK
A big question
Do we recon the TL will take a big dive during or straight after the referendum



Offline Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #761 on: March 13, 2017, 14:05:45 PM »
To give people a better chance of making a guess can you tell us what the result of the referendum will be, and how close?

Offline jackstee

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #762 on: March 14, 2017, 08:05:49 AM »
I don't really think that will matter. Just thinking it may drop as a gut reaction.

Offline JohnF

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #763 on: March 14, 2017, 08:19:24 AM »
Ok, crystal ball time   :)   if the Yes side win by a substantial majority then I suspect we'll see the lira strengthen, maybe not by much and chances are it'll be a temporary rise.

If the No camp win, then I suspect the lira will fall simply because all manners of hell will break out in Ankara and who knows what the ramifications of a No vote will be.

Interesting article in the Al Monitor a few days ago suggesting that if it looks like a No vote, then the the referendum may be cancelled/postponed:

While the fateful date of April 16 — the day the constitutional amendments that could give Erdogan extraordinary executive powers and transform him into the "sultan president,” as many observers and his critics allege — approaches, the possibility of rejection by popular vote surprisingly increases.

This by itself is a real matter of concern for Erdogan. He has proved to be a master of winning elections over two decades, and nobody could imagine that he would gamble the biggest prize of his long and successful political career. Every precautionary measure to secure a “yes” vote on April 16 has been taken.

Turkey is moving to the polls under unprecedented waves of crackdown that saw more than 110,000 people purged, sacked or detained, with around 44,000 put behind bars, including co-chairs of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), and many prominent journalists and opinion makers in the country. Any semblance of dissent against Erdogan is under threat of being severely punished. He characterizes anybody who announces or may think of casting a “no” vote as a villain, traitor and terrorist. A state of emergency is in force and will remain in place on election day.

Full article: here

JF

Offline Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #764 on: March 14, 2017, 10:12:05 AM »
As economists say ... On the one hand markets like stability so after a clear RTE win the lira could rise. On the other hand a RTE victory would encourage him to interfere more with monetary policy which the markets don't like so the lira could fall. This is why the politician's prayer is "Please oh please send me a one-armed economist".

Offline davybill

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #765 on: March 14, 2017, 12:58:57 PM »
You will have a job to find one thats  Harmless?

Offline JohnF

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #766 on: March 16, 2017, 11:26:37 AM »
Another good day for the lira despite the Fed increasing rates - I think a lot of folks thought it'd take a hit if the US rates were increased but looks not to be the case.  TCB held their rate to 8% today which looks like having been a good move, not that the wee fella would let them raise the interest rate anyway...

JF

Offline yabanci

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #767 on: June 22, 2017, 09:52:19 AM »
The confrontation centering on interest rates: President wanting them low; head of CB saying they must rise.

Looks like the President might win this confrontation.


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-pm-warns-banks-to-cut-interest-rates-or-govt-will-take-its-own-measures.aspx?pageID=238&nID=114620&NewsCatID=344




Offline Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #768 on: June 22, 2017, 10:32:39 AM »
“Our bankers should not take this as a threat." No, they'll meet lots of interesting lawyers, judges, academics, journalists and others once they are banged-up.

Offline Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #769 on: July 05, 2017, 15:04:03 PM »
Yesterday the Central Bank announced the good news that inflation has fallen to 10.9%. Today the lira has lost 1% in value. Woz goin' on over there?




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