Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum
Turkey Related Subjects => Turkey Discussion Forum (Not Calis specifically) => Topic started by: Ian on July 29, 2011, 19:31:18 PM
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Gosh - could see the lira hit 3 to the Pound now!!!!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14346325
Seriously not good for stability - is this the last throw?
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Yes, my partner is saying this also, Big Problems here.
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Not good.
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quote:
Originally posted by Julesp
Yes, my partner is saying this also, Big Problems here.
Could your partner elaborate a little for the politically unaware of us Jules (in simple terms please).
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The ruling party have got what they want. The Military Chiefs who would not 'toe the line' are now no more. The Prime Minister/President can now appoint sycophants into the empty posts and therefor any threat, to changes in the constitution or any other legeslation, from the military is now gone.
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So the rate should hit 2, not 3 then...
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Probably
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If they go quietly and no one objects?
Ps if the USA do not agree their debt ceiling by Tuesday then I suspect the rate will not go down as the weak dollar is the main reason for the weak lira although some unrest would equally damage it.
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I believe the reason for the recent current exchange rate bump is to do with Turkey's credit rating and the overheating economy due to an inbalance between import and exports.
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quote:
Originally posted by Scunner
So the rate should hit 2, not 3 then...
This probably depends on whether the money markets believe these event have made Turkey a more, or less, stable society. Or (more likely) whether the money men think it increases the amount of uncertainity about Turkey's immediate future. An increase in perceived risk, or an increase in uncertainity about risk, would, in orthodox economic theory (with which I don't always agree), lead to a weakening in the international value of the lira. If this happened 3 or more would be a more likely scenario unless other facors intervened (e.g. an increase in the Central Bank base interest rate). The money market on Monday should be interesting on this.
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Yes that is pretty much the view I was making with less words - stability is the primary factor for any economy; Iraq had a far better economy under Saddam yet change does not necessarily cause instability. The mumblings of the military may well have kept the government of the time more accountable but also made it a little less strong and stable. Personally I thought the military played a good part in keeping things moderate but moderate and stable aren't the same thing. Agree that Monday is going to be quite a day...
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quote:
Originally posted by Scunner
So the rate should hit 2, not 3 then...
I dont understand the politics But, my partner, Yetis, who is an accountant and a money expert by trade, worked in banks for years after graduating from university, reckons the lira will hit 3tl to the pound next month,
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Am I right in the thinking then that Turkey could become like Iran etc-AKP are rooted in Islam, will they want the women to start wearing head scarfs again and this type of thing-sure it would completely ruin tourism, but of course they don't care!!! The army will not there be there to stop them. If this is so I want to get on the first plane out of here!!!!
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I wish I'd paid more attention at school, and understood a little more about global economy and politics :(
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Mr. Pickles, you can learn all you want or need to know with a little bit of surfing on the web and I can highly recommend Al Jazeera English for in depth analysis on virtually any issue that has a global relevance.
You will recognise a lot of well respected British journalists hosting shows and they have journalists that are nationals of the countries they are reporting from around the world which gives an edge to the coverage that is missing from other World News channels who just send an anchor in as and when needed.
Inside Story today (AJ) covered the resignation on the Chief of Staff and Generals in Turkey and its repeated again at 8.30pm tonight Turkish time so 6.30pm UK time.
I have managed to miss it twice already and can't watch it tonight so if anyone else can watch and feed back I would be interested to hear what was discussed.
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Here is the link to today show...
Turkey: A New Political Era
http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/insidestory/2011/07/201173194112483174.html
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This article may also be of interest
Turkey on Trial
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/201173171846381691.html
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Well there seems to have been a more-or-less neutral reaction by Turkish money markets this morning. The lira strengthened by 0.8% but that sort of daily shift is not at all unusual and is less than many of the ups and downs of the last couple of weeks. Similarly there has been little impact on the Istanbul Stosk Exchange with shares up a mere 0.5% - again nothing out of the ordinary. It seems like we have been more interested in the resignation of the generals than the money people.
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The removal of the military from the political scene is probably seen as a step in the right direction by the EU and the money markets.The power of the military is actually seen as a cause of uncertainty and no one likes the possibility of a military coup evety time they do not agree with the actions of the elected government.Whether Turkey moves closer to the middle east and the adoption of more muslim values is perfectly within the rights of the Turkish government. This is a government that has a mandate from the Turkish people.
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The government is the bike. The military controlled the brakes. They made the bike safer but restricted the speed. Now the bike can go at full speed, which is great as long as it is pointed in the right direction :D
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Great analogy Scunner....
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Scunner, sorry but I totally disagree with you on this. The AK party is the elected party and has the mandate to do what it thinks is best for Turkey. Military coups in Turkey had no legal validity and only happened when the military decided it did not like what the government was doing. What would you think if we elected a left wing government in the UK and the military took power because it did not like the policies that it wants to persue. The government is elected by the people. The AK party has not made any attempt to hide its leanings towards theIslamic world. The actions it has taken regarding the sale of drink and the wearing of the burka are examples of the way they think. The people of Turkey voted for this.
Turkey is a democracy and not a tin pot military dictatorship.It is also a member of the G20 as one of the biggest economies in the world.
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So, what did I say that you disagree with?
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The military should not be the so called brake. The military are thereto serve the government in power and not to dictate policy.The brake in any country has got to be the ballot box.
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No I agree with you - my analogy was an attempt to paint simply the situation as was in Turkey. The military was the brakes, not that the military should be the brakes.
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The way you put it is correct in the way that the country was run. They have had 3 military coups and one nearly coup in the past 50 years. Some of the demands of the military like a minimum of 8 years schooling were right. Others such a banning the wearing of the head scarf at uniis,in my opinion,an attack on human rights.
Sometimes,I do think that Ex pats do over react to what the government is doing. The banning of the sale of alcohol is totally consistent with muslim beliefs.The government has not been totally stupid and recognised its importance to tourism so the ban in no way impacts on Fethiye. The wearing ofthe head scarf is a basic human right.If the Koran was strictly applied the Britsh tourist would not be able to wander around the way that they do. Some of the tourists I saw when we lived in Turkey would make you wish for strict enforce of the Koran.
The problem with Islam and for that matter almost all religons is that there are fundementalist sects that create fear and terror. Suicide bombers and the like should not be seen as the stereotype muslim.
Apologies if I have gone a little off topic.
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Actually the AKP had 50% of the votes which gives it a mixed mandate because 50% of the people did not vote for them. True democracy aims to build consensus and takes account of all views in decision making processes.
The AKP wanted to railroad through changes to the constitution one of which would have allowed PM Erdogan to become the President in a newly defined role that would allow him to continue to dominate and influence Turkish politics. Under the current system he can not run again. It is a good thing that the AKP did not win a constitutional majority but having locked up key opponents they continue to obstruct the right of uncharged but elected Members of Parliament to take up their rightful positions to Government posts they were elected too by the people and weakens the legitimate opposition.
The main reason the AKP is so popular is because for many years prior to their election there was a long period of instability in Turkey. The AKP have done many good things for the people of Turkey, a stable government is important for Turkish people, inflation and interest rates are down and they have an impressive approach to foreign policy. That said the economy is overheating, Turkeys credit rating took a knock recently, the Kurdish issue and now unrest in Syria on its doorstop.
The military traditionally were considered the upholders of the constitution and the protectors of a secular state. They intervened if the constitution was being flouted or abused.
The questions to ask is why if they are so popular are so many members of the opposition, the judiciary, academics, lawyers, senior members of the armed forces locked up on trumped, unproven charges for years and years. Have you any idea how many journalists have been murdered in Turkey this year alone? And why have they weakened the power and diluted the independence of the judiciary which is crucial in any democracy.
In the Middle East we have all observed how the people's popular uprisings against people who had/have absolute power have used the internet to organise and tell the rest of the world what is going on.
Isn't it a little bit suspicious that the AKP intends to censor what people can access on the internet? Thirteen thousand web sites are already blocked but secret lists are being drawn up and in a few weeks time we will all have an imposed filter system that will restricted the right to access information on the internet.
Absolute power is never a good thing and mandate or no mandate marginalising 50% of the population will not lead to continued stability in the long term and will be detrimental to the role in the world of such an important and strategically placed country. Democracy in any country is not determined by the ballot box it is determined by the active and meaningful participation of the people in all levels of decision making that affects their lives.
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quote:
Originally posted by Ovacikpeedoff
Sometimes,I do think that Ex pats do over react to what the government is doing.
Yes and almost definitely more than they/we did about those folks in Westminster when previously living in the UK - but it is natural to wonder what is going to come and demolish one's new found dream life.
Islam, and to the point a more fundemental Islamic Government is not "what happened in Iran", it can be what happens in Dubai, and they've shifted a few properties and accommodated an expat or two over the years 8)
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Totally agree with Nichola
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What an excellent post by Nichola
I personally think she has got it spot on as well :)
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Yes,you have Iran and you also have the gulf stateswhich are muslim states that have openly touted western investment in property.They strictly invoke muslim law.
In a democracy whether it is right or wrong the majority party tends to form the government and at the end of a term of government you have a general election. It is then that the voters have the right to change government.The AK party has been inpower since 2002 and has just won its third general election with a substantial majority. The AK party has the biggest mandate to govern of any major country in the world. The opposition in Turkey instead of being a true opposition just cry foul and try to pass every major bill that the government introduces to the constitutional court.
You have actually knocked a hole in your own argument when you wrote that this government has brought stability and econmonic improvement. With regards to the economy what major country is not having problems at the moment. Turkey has tried to join the EU and they are unlikely to succeed because countries like France, Germany and the Netherlands will oppose their application. Turkey has been forced down the route of having to trade with its near arab neighbours and the former soviet trading block.Some of themajor countries in the world are currently under the threat of downgrade. The USA, the biggest economy, is facing a downgrade in the next couple of days. In fact Turkey has done well and has not been subject to losses incurred in most of the western world.
These popular uprising in the middle east are actually taking place in countries where dictatorships were in power, Tunisia, Lybia and Syria were nothing but tin pot dictatorships and any elections held were rigged before the first vote was cast.
As I said earlier the military has no right to interfere in the running of the country. They interfere to make sure their own power has not been taken away.If you want to see a real economic crash in Turkey lets have a military coup and foreigninvestment will just leave the country. In every democratic country the judiciary is always influenced by the incoming government as it is the right of the government in power to make the appointment. In republican times in the US the supreme court judges tend to be republican party supporters and the system is not much different in the UK. In the Uk the bishops of theAnglican church are approved by the government.
The AK party does not have this super majority where it can introduce constitutional change without reference to the people.
Scunner, with regards to dreams living in the sun it is a worrying time. So far the Turkish government has not really done a great deal to impact the lives of foreigners living in Turkey.
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Worrying time due to the nature of the Government or worrying time due to the mild threat of a military coup every other month - is there much of a difference...
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Army coups brought only bad things to Turkey. I was a teen when 12th of september coup is done. We are learning what kind of dirty things (tortures, corruptions etc.) were done in those days now. The chief of that coup is still alive, the question is, why he is not arrested if the generals who made only plans for a coup are arrested nowadays (I know the reason) :)
Personally, I prefer AKP than a coup.
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and why does Turkey still have the same constitution now which was put in place by General Evran? Now military officers are finding out what guilty till proven innocent really means as now they are the victims to the constitution they created by being stuck in jails till their court date comes up.
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Its got to be better that the ever present threat of a military coup has finally been removed.The army should be run by the government. The government should be elected by the people.A truer democracy at last.
How do you control the excesses of the government. Thats more difficult.The ballot box eventually,but in the meantime, public opinion through all communication media is really the only outlet.
Lets hope Turkey survives this government and its more fundamental leanings
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OPO - can you explain what argument I have knocked a hole in by acknowledging and recognising some of the positive accomplishments of the AKP? I am afraid I didn't really understand what you were trying to say.
Starman - last year there was a referendum in Turkey that changed significant parts of the constitution including undermining the independence of the judiciary. PM Erdogan was gutted when he didn't win a constitutional majority in the recent election that would have allowed him to push through more changes without consultation with either the "elected" opposition or the people of Turkey.
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You have to read some of the things this PM has said in recent weeks to get an indication of which way the country might go. One of his recent statements, and I am not quoting verbatim, is that he does not see the need for ore than two political parties in Turkey, the party in pwer and the opposition, and if both parties agree on the majority of things then why bother having two parties, just merge the two and run the country loke this with a president!
Didn't Hitler start out this way?
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Look at the Lira at the bottom of the screen - look at the turmoil in the USA Stock Markets - as I said previously - the fortunes of the Lira are inextricably linked to the Dollar (for the time being)
America sneezes - the Lira catches a cold ;)
quote:
Ps if the USA do not agree their debt ceiling by Tuesday then I suspect the rate will not go down as the weak dollar is the main reason for the weak lira although some unrest would equally damage it.
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AKP closed all pig slaughter houses as they were deemed not up to european standard.
Now ask them how many cattle and sheep ones they closed. Or was everyone up to standard.
Hidden agenda maybe