Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum
General Topics => All things that have nothing to do with Turkey => Topic started by: sannyrut on October 28, 2011, 11:26:22 AM
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Some say it will bea dead in 5 years,but it's dying on it's feet now.Sarkozy,little grumpy Napoleon, has even asked China to help in the latest bail-out.How humiliating.I say give it 6 months.Any takers?
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6-12 months, it'll take them 6 months to organise the bail-out. Isn't this the 2nd bail-out?
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18 months max. Greece will default followed by Ireland, Italy and Portugal. IMHO it's a House of Cards with those four on the bottom row.
China would be completely nuts to plough in any of their dosh as they would benefit from a European collapse.
Goodbye Europe it was nice doing business with you.
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I'm not sure it is going to survive in its present form and membership, but it will survive by sheer force of political will of the German/Franco axis along with the stronger Northern European countries such as Netherlands.
Wouldn't want to bet on both Spain and more particularly Italy being members of the inner Euro club, at that time, as I am not sure they will be able to overcome the future fiscal hurdles. SO I think we will see the inner core of Euro nations; an outer core group (ERM2), mainly southern european nations and those exiting (with some buffer support) like Greece. Timescale 12-18 months, if they use the breathing space provided by the deal announced yesterday.
By the way it may not be in China's interest to weigh in too heavily with some of their own reserves to help fund the Euro Support Package, but it is certainly not in their interest to see the Euro nations (and indeed other European countries outside of the euro) struggling in economic terms. Firstly because Europe is their biggest export market and secondly they would like to see the Euro, if not replace, then certainly be an alternative to the Dollar as a reserve and possible petro currency, based on the weakness of the dollar. And they certainly do not want to volunteer up their own currency for those jobs !!
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China has been systematically buying natural resources and getting countries heavily in hoc to them for years.
Africa and South America are examples of where they have entered into deals (knowing they will lose some and win some) - I wouldn't underestimate the candle burning late into the night as they try to establish what they could get Europe to mortgage ;)
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I cannot believe it but I actually agree with UBT on something. Italy and Spain are key to the Euro surviving and not Greece. If either goes under the Euro in its present form will go with them. Although France and Germany are reasonably strong at the moment the burden of bailing out the others could certainly have a major impact on France. The surprise package could be someone like Finland. They have a healthy economy and strong public finances. They might decide to call it a day before the demise of the Euro.
Sarkozy is really the first leader to come out and say that Greece should never have been allowed to join as they fudged the results to meet the joining criteria. At the formation of the Euro the only country that actually met the original criteria was the UK and luckily we did not join. Germany still had major debt problems due to unification.
The collapse of the euro will not happen overnight. I do not think that a plan exists as to how it would take place. The turmoil will be immense and will probably make what we are going through at the moment look like a walk in the park.It will take years to get over the impact of the collapse. It is not just the notes and coins, it is a whole infrastructure.Countries outside the Eurozone will not get away without a serious impact on their economies.
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How does this work? If any of us normal people get into difficulty through no fault of their own, its threats ,bailiffs ,fines etc,but borrow billions,don't repay it,then other people write your debt off,then increase the amount you can keep on borrowing from them. Don't understand that.
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quote:
Originally posted by Stan
How does this work? If any of us normal people get into difficulty through no fault of their own, its threats ,bailiffs ,fines etc,but borrow billions,don't repay it,then other people write your debt off,then increase the amount you can keep on borrowing from them. Don't understand that.
Your not wrong, it works on the basis of firstly it is 'too big to fail', and when it does fail then everyone starts saying that it is too late, too big and too difficult to do anything about it - so no need to send in the attack dogs to recover other's losses - and then invariably it is the small guy down the line such as a small supplier or an employee or pensioner, who has to take the real pain of a company collapse.
One of the worst example in my experience is the collapse of the Maxwell empire, although dead Maxwell's family who were all tied in with their father/husband got away with it all scott free, and continued to enjoy an expensive lifestyle.[:(!]
Like Scunner's recollection in another thread where companies go bust, and days if not hours later the directors reform and continue to trade in a new company, with the debts in the old company being absorbed as losses by their suppliers and HMRC.
You don't mind people trying and failing, but when failure's route is everyone else taking the pain, and the directors taking little or no responsibility for their actions in the failed company, you begin to wonder if our administration and bankruptcy rules and procedures are tough enough:-\
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the euro wont fail,they cant afford it to.If they resort back to their old currency the cost would be astronomical and their trade value will be worth nothing.
They are in enough s**t alreasdy but its best to solve it together than go it alone.
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(http://i163.photobucket.com/albums/t301/KayaKoyuWalker/eunaziflag.gif)
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Yes about the swastika.The Greeks are having a field day portraying Germany as the conquering Reich again.Apparently the Greeks are going to vote on the bail out and associated austerity measures.Guess what,popular opinion says, the Greek voters don't want any more interference and will default.Heads up Cameron and horsefly(Clegg).Even the Chinese are sniggering at Sarkozy's fawning.Now give it 3 months to survive.
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Be honest a brilliant piece of political manoeuvring by the Greek PM and whats more the sound of the the eurocrats ticking like clocks because the Greeks will get to see true democracy at work. Only when the people are given the power that real change will appear, the fiasco that was the EU membership in the UK last week is a classic example of the people being ignored. What we have today is one man, one vote, once, every 5 years, all wrong! Governments and politicians have to understand that they are our servants, not our masters. A referendum on all major issues is the way forward for true democracy. And this comes from a capitalist.
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I heard about this referendum this lunchtime and the subsequent debate on the radio. Can't remember his name but the guy was saying he thought it was fantastic because it meant the banks' would lose out financially.
the thought did cross my mind that it isn't the Governments who run the World, it is the banks. They also make so much money out of us all I, for one, wouldn't mind the Greeks saying 'no'.
And yes, I would give it 3-6 months before it goes belly-up.
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What impact is all of this likely tp have on the Lira ?
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It is a nice day in a small Greek village.
Times are bad, everyone has debts, and all live on credit.
On this day, Piet, a Dutch tourist drives through the village, stops in front of a small hotel.
He tells the owner he wants to have a look at the rooms, maybe rent one, and puts 100 € on the desk as a caution.
Hotel owner gives him a pair of keys.
With the visitor upstairs, hotel owner grabs 100 €, runs to his neighbour butcher and pays his debs.
Butcher takes 100 €, runs down the street and pays the farmer.
Farmer takes money and pays bill with milk cooling.
This guy takes money, goes to pub and pays his bar bill.
Bar owner moves the money to a prostitute sitting at the bar, with whom he had debts.
Prostitute runs to hotel to pay her 100 € bill.
The owner puts the money on the counter.
Piet comes down, says he dos not like the rooms, takes his money and disappears.
Nobody produced something, nobody has earned something, all debts are paid, all Greeks happy.
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I note that the Greek PM has been ?summoned to appear before the Euro whatevers to explain himself.Sounds a bit like when the Irish Republic voted against Europe,and were told to vote again and get it right.Anyway,the Greeks reckon that Germany owes them £60 billion because when they were occupied in the 1940's by the Germans,the Italians failed twice to Hitler's disgust,the Greek Bank was forced to lend the occupying Germans a large sum of money which was never repaid.This now,with interest,is estimated to be the £60 billion.Sounds reasonable to me to ask for it back.I do however agree that the Greeks are not addressing their problems.Did you ever wonder if you were in Greece,the number of small properties that were finished and occupied on the ground floor,but had high tensile re-inforcement steel rods sticking up waiting for the first floor to be completed?It never was,because it was a tax dodge.The house had not been completed(and never would) so it was tax exempt because it was still being built. ;)
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Sounds like Turkey, Sannyrut:D