Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum
Turkey Related Subjects => Turkey Discussion Forum (Not Calis specifically) => Topic started by: Kevin Sowten on June 12, 2013, 07:55:49 AM
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Full time residents and indeed Turkish National members of CBF must have ‘learned’ opinions on the projected outcome of the Taksim Square protests (as a complete outsider who has only holidayed in Western Turkey for the past 10 years I haven’t got a clue where it will end) but I can’t see it dying down naturally
A crushing of the rebellion by the police and military ?
Deposition of the Government and military rule ?
An early election ? (there doesn’t seem to be a credible opposition as the number of seats in 2011 were split 341/112/71 and I’ve not heard the voice of the opposition since it all started.)
It would seem that the further east you go in Turkey the more support there will be for Erdogan’s ‘Islamist’ ways. (And we go on about the North South divide !!!!)
I’d be interested in hearing some ‘knowledgeable’ opinions.
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This is an interesting and also worrying article. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/11/trust-turkish-police-government
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An interesting article Jacqui - but what they want and what they get is likely to differ somewhat !!! :(
It's an awful situation for all involved.
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I wouldn't claim to be "learned" on Turkish politics by any means but I have a feeling that the anti-Government sentiment will long continue and perhaps change tact. I can't see a victory for the opposition citizens on the streets of Istanbul and Ankara - this can always be dispersed if your police are harsh enough - and even if you regroup it is difficult to see how the downfall of the government is coming.
I would think changing to a more paralysing policy might be where it could head - this is NOT a handful of anarchists and a few whipped up youths with nothing better to do - it is a massive number of people who's numbers are being swelled every day by the events they see, such as the wholesale arrest of lawyers in Istanbul. The way forward when you have numbers on your side is maybe not to attack, it is to withdraw - and that could mean massive strikes affecting Turkey greatly.
Another notable thing is that Sultan Reg calls social networking such as Twitter 'evil' and 'dangerous'. Twitter is not dangerous or evil at all. Unless people being able to share truthful information makes you feel uneasy of course...
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I agree Keith. I can't see him letting go of his powerful grip at all and maybe the opposition will have to change their direction. Strikes could be one way as they have the backing of many millions of people. The other thing that just might make him think and change is the international public. What they are seeing in Turkey is a democratic country allowing the police to brutally attack it's own citizens.
This is not supposed to be a dictatorship and I expect the Turkish people and the World will not forget this in a hurry.
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Motion for a resolution:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=MOTION&reference=B7-2013-0309&format=XML&language=EN
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Watched an interesting piece on BBC hard talk last night. The Turkish PM wants to stop abortions, does not want women to have caesarian sections and wants all couples to have three children. Think he needs to grow a smaller moustache under his nose and get a uniform.w :-[
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Kevin; The New Turkey by Chris Morris describes Turkey and the changes the country has been through up until about 2003.
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Kevin; The New Turkey by Chris Morris describes Turkey and the changes the country has been through up until about 2003.
Thanks - I'll take a look :)
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From what I have been told . The many of caesarian deliveries have been unnecessary, they were used to make life easier and to fit into the normal working day of the doctors and hospitals.
I understand that RTE wants them used only as a medical necessity and thus reduce costs to the health service.
The three children idea was suggested on a purely economics basis. A falling population is not conducive to a vibrant economy.
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The best solution would be for the more moderate members of his parliament to force RE out ,will it happen, in my opinion a small possibility.
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There are three very important years ahead. In 2013 Erdogan wants to get a new constitution accepted. The main thrust of this is that political power is shifted from the Prime Minister post to the Presidency. There are fears that this will lead to a further concentration of political power in Turkey especially following Erdogan's complaint last December that progress in Turkey was being hindered by the separation of powers. However, the draft constitution includes some changes that MPs representing Kurdish interests have been pressing for some time. RTE hopes AKP and BDP votes together will gain him a parliamentary super-majority. If not he says he will call a national referendum. In 2014 there will be Presidential elections. If the new constitution is passed RTE will likely "do a Putin" - i.e. swap places with current President Gul (RTE is not allowed to stand again for PM office). In 2015 there will be a Parliamentary election.
So, some key questions are how will the current protests, and more importantly the Government's response to them, affect these three crucial issues. If things go according to Erdogan's plan then by 2015 he will have a secure, and more powerful, position. Surely the events of the last couple of weeks will lead to more people being worried at this prospect - in parliament and/or in the proposed referendum. Will this be significant enough to derail Erdogan's train (remembering that he has said democracy is like a train - you get off once you have reached your station). I certainly hope so.
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A well balanced and thought provoking interview on Hard Talk with Elif Şafak . The author of The b*****d of istanbul.
I think that Turkey is reaping the whirlwind following decades of neglect and indifference shown to the electorate by previous governments. These actions handed election victories to RTE on a plate.
The opposition parties have done nothing and show no signs of doing anything to try and redress the balance.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b02m1bjw - Fast forward to 33:50 - interesting discussion today on the Jeremy Vine show.
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The Turkish Regulator has today fined several TV stations for screening scenes of the demonstrations which will corrupt the minds of children and youths.Reported in the Hurriyet News and Daily Zaman papers. "Just Breaking" on BBC News. RTE has given authorities 24 hours to end ALL demonstrations.It reminds me of the last days of Saddam, Gaddafi & Mubarak. Bad times for sure. I think the opposition are hiding behind the headstones watching him digging his grave. .
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Back in 2008 I had a discussion about the 2007 elections with a popular Turquoise-Coast-‘resort-town’ business owner who speaks excellent English, so there were no ambiguities or misrepresentations in his understanding of, or reply, to my questions.
I asked who he had voted for in the previous elections. “AKP” was his happy reply and “No” he wasn’t a supporter as such, nor particularly political.
I remarked that there were suggestions in the media that a strong AKP-led government was very likely to lead to stricter Islamic rules being imposed, in time, and that votes like his could have given RTE too strong a mandate to be challenged in the future, if the outcome of the stricter rules weren’t popular. I had even mentioned the famous “tram ride” quote to help inform his answers.
His gung ho reply to this - “I, and those like me, who voted them in can always vote them out at the next election: but they have improved things in Turkey for many people so they are all right”.
We chatted again in 2012. The same question. The same reply.
So, less than a year later a double whammy for his resort, and his business no doubt, with visitor numbers decreasing year on year anyway! He can only hope the protests do lead to change! I sincerely wish them luck with that.
I’m reminded of another country where largesse has been known to sway the vote with ultimately calamitous results!
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Looks like it might go to a referendum :)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22882460
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Changing by the minute. !! The Head of State of the judiciary has just announced that a referendum cannot overrule any decisions made by the judiciary.!! Also. Efes has taken down it's website "as any advertising of alcohol violates new law No 6487", and RTE has just reiterated his 24 hours warning. :( :(
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Various senior figures in AKP have been making conciliatory noises (like referendum) for some time but Erdogan has notably not been amongst them - instead he has been consistently hard-line. Now he says his tolerance is over. Does he describe sending in the police to use gas bombs and cannisters, water canon, baton charges, and so on as "tolerance"? I wonder if the protestors found it so.
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I am not advocating this, but given Turkish history in the last 100 years will the army, who have been weakened or perhaps sidelined is a better word under Erdogan, take the opportunity to step in to protect 'the people' in Taksim from further brutal attacks encouraged by Erdogan and his hardline supporters?? Just a thought, but I'd be interested to hear what others think?
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I shouldn't imagine he has many friends in the armed forces and I did wonder how many police/ secret service people he could call on in a major uprising as the protests appear to be nationwide.I just wish for everyone to stay safe.
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It may well be the case that the army stay loyal to avoid the top brass being subjected to the scenes we saw the other day with the lawyers in Istanbul being dragged into custody. But one thing armies tend to do is swap sides immediately it appears that the Government is losing grip.
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If they did go to prison they would find it an old boy's club. There are already 329 military officers in there as a consequence of the Ergenekon campaign.
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On another forum a member of the protest movement is keeping people up to date and asking that messages are shared to get round the media blackout in Turkey. This comment is wonderful.
He writes that Mr Mutlu the mayor of Istanbul warned yesterday that severe action would be taken against Gezi Park protestors and called on mothers to go and take their children home. Instead mothers went to the park and formed a human chain to protect their children. The expected attack did not take place. He comments "Mr Mutlu is now expected to call for grandmothers to go to the park and take the mothers home".
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It may well be the case that the army stay loyal to avoid the top brass being subjected to the scenes we saw the other day with the lawyers in Istanbul being dragged into custody. But one thing armies tend to do is swap sides immediately it appears that the Government is losing grip.
An old favourite of mine........
An Egyptian General "I have always been loyal to President Nasser. I will always be loyal to him until it is not the time to be loyal."
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We heard from Turkish friends that the P.M. had already imprisoned about 300 of the army top brass, key people, he wanted to make the army toothless.
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A very interesting link:
http://letterevive.com/2013/06/13/we-have-already-won-letter-from-a-turk-to-his-country/
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So finally the threat of the army is being used. A line has been drawn and I wait with baited breath to see which side the army takes in all of this.
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Some interesting developments & articles (imo), along with Ataturk's Address to the youth of Turkey (inc translation)
http://www.turkishlanguage.co.uk/hitap.htm (Attaturk's Address - scroll down to read in English))
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/critical-eu-decision-about-turkey-postponed-to-june-24.aspx?pageID=238&nID=49150&NewsCatID=351
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stanley-weiss/the-megalomania-of-erdoan_b_3437350.html