Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum
Information and Services in Turkey Section => Banks, Interest, Money Transfers, Insurance => Topic started by: stuart on May 04, 2006, 18:14:56 PM
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looks like its happening what you finacial wizz kids were predicting a few weeks ago the pound is getting stronger against the lire. 2.44 today!! any comments??
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Yes, It's LIRA !
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2.6 this time last year.
So where does the stronger come into it ?
Crabbit
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On teletext the lira is still 2.26 to the pound. Where does the 2.44 come from? Anne.
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got it in the post office today 2.27
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Got 2.4062 in Halk Bank today
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which is why we only change the minimum amount neccesary for when we arrive in Turkey.
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I withdrew 600 YTL from a Nationwide Flex account last night at an Ak Bank ATM and the rate was 2.42 YTL to the pound.
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I thought the Lira was weak for this time of year..
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It's cos the interest rate was reduced by a quarter point last week. Interesting that this resulted in around a 2.5% change in the lira to the £. And there's more to come. The new head of the Central Bank has a target to reduce the inflation rate down to 5%. If that happens then interest rates 'may' fall to around 8% - 10% and the exchange rate will weaken too. Ok if you're a tourist as your £ will buy more or an exporter as your goods will be cheaper, but not so good of you have all your cash in the lira and are living off the interest (as many are). So, make the most of the high rates now while they last and spread your investment risk!
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So it drops to 10%.......That is still more than Double what you would get in most uk banks and building societies. So unless you wan't to take it all back to the uk ....ENJOY your 10% and THINK OF THE GOOD OLD DAYS. :)
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A friend of mine in Akbank said they were expecting exchange rate to climb to 2.60 YTL by June.
WW
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i got 2.40 from the german fella( i think he is )that sit in the clothes shop in fethiye
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Nationwide is 2.44 today
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Told you!
It is still not as good as last year but it has gone up quite a bit in the last few weeks - the lira is a very volatile currency. Why do you think they accept our £ and $ in so many places?
Stoop
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Puma.....watch this guy he is very adept at doing a Three Card Trick by asking for a few lira to round up a figure but it actually comes out of your exchange rate. Does not do it all the time but be aware. :)
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It's 2.50 YTL to the Pound today......and next...?????
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I shall 'watch this space' until next month when I next visit!
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Today Finans Bank are showing 2.62 and Garanti Bank 2.64.
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And the strange factor creating this is, its not inflation, its not interest rates, its not crude oil, its not other countries poorer exchange???
it's tax cut in turkish textiles.
Textile manufacturers claim (as they do) "they are no longer able to produce to the same standards due to the overvalued new Turkish lira", now thats an excuse for producing cr@p.
A 10 percent tax cut to relieve the sector, all eyes (except Trinadad who has only one eye) turned to the IMF, who said it is not pleased (i.e extremely p155ed off) with the exchange policy change initiated by the Central Bank of Turkey.
It also considers the tax reduction is a concession in the economic program.
Dippz
When it gets to 3.00 i'm cashing my £'s up.
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Dippz
Does that mean that if they don't give the 10% tax cut to the textile manufacturers - as they are now getting 10% extra due to the revaluation that we might see a 20% revaluation?
It's too late & I've been FAR too long without sleep (38hrs - insomnia is a total bitch) so not sure if that makes sense - my brain hurts! I'll look at tomorrow.
I'm with you Dippey - 3.00 & I'm cashing in too. There appears to be no reason for the YTL to be so strong especially with all the debt they have taken on in the last few years.
Linda
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Fethiye Times are reporting the rate as 2.66
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I base it on Turkeys inability to grasp basic economics, most actions are knee jerk reaction and short sighted, without assessing long term stability. Turkey is famous for being the "basket case" in economics, every 4-6 years something incredible happens badly.
Dippz
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Maybe the Turkish government has tied the Lira too closely to the US dollar because that's fallen a lot lately too.
Just an idea.
Mike
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No - the US dollar is falling because, basically, the USA is knackered! They have a huge trade deficit and have borrowed too much money. China is the next big thing, economy wise.
The only link is that no one wants Lira and no one (apart from the week countries) wants the dollar.
Stoop ( ex Financial Consultant:D)
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http://www.fethiyetimes.org.uk/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=332&Itemid=58
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Mike & Hilary
I guess you are new to Turkey & the exchange rates. LOL
If anyone wants to see what has happened over the past 12 years - take a look below.
Echange rates taken 1st January each year.
Jan 94.... 22,074 Lira to £
" 95.... 60,853 "
" 96.... 94,428 "
" 97.... 185,586 "
" 98.... 342,846 "
" 99.... 518,771 "
"2000.... 878,414 "
" 01...1,003,537 "
" 02...2,142,037 "
" 03...2,689,696 "
" 04...2,546,403 "
" 05...2,628,116 " or 2.628YTL
" 06...2,326,822 " or 2.326YTL
The last 3 years have gone the opposite way to 'normal' for the Lira.
I remember the times of 100% inflation well as I was going to Turkey before this chart started.
Is the economy 'really' that much sounder now OR is the stability artificial?
I know the USA have given Turkey lots of loans - because of them allowing them to land troops.
Is it these loans that have stabalised the economy?
Inflation is still in double figures - so where will the Lira stabalise?
Dippz - appreciate your input.
I was looking at investing money once it reaches 3.00 but doing some homework this morning , now I'm not so sure.
Linda
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I wouldn't and have never had any trust in the turkish economy, Artifiscal stability, taking 6 zero's out of your currency is not the answer and deflects from the real issues, soon the exchange will be the worst ever on record, and how anyone can say 2,630,000 (being the real figure) can say its to strong, its as weak and meaningful as the Zimbarbwe exchange. I spent the last seven years explaining to my Istanbul office that we only deal in US$/Euro or £. A competitor of ours, taking any orders they could get, dealt in lira contracts, after 2001 they realised why we didn't!!
If I had any lira sitting in a bank account i would exchange it for £'s. If I was to invest in currency movement i'd do the $ v £ when it hits 1.95, may go a bit higher but will always drop back down to 1.55-1.70 within three months.
ex Financial Controller, Europe MiddleEast Africa (retired 30 years early!nah nah nah).:D
Dippz
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Sound advice Dipps.
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Yes, Lindacarl I suppose I must be new to ... etc. What a laugh! I found your posting patronizing. It's just possible that you don't know everything about Turkey and its economy. How smug!
Mike
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On the subject.. should I change some £ for Lira here before we come out on Friday or wait?
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Do it here....you will get a better rate than in the UK. As the rate is on a rise at the moment change little and often and gain from the increasing rate each time. :)
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i thought Lindacarl input was informative and notat all patronising or smug but i did find mike and hilarys reply plain rude
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I had no intention of being smug or patronising Mike & Hilary.
I have no idea what the YTL will do in the future - which is why I asked for what others think.
I posted the figures for those of you who may have thought about investing all in the YTL because they thought the interest rate was great.
The interest rate would turn out to be abysmal (easily negative interest), if, as in the recent past the Lira/pound exchange rate changed by 100%. I don't understand why it appears to be so stable now.
The 4-5% available here looks like a pretty good interest rate IF the YTL starts on the slippery slopes again.
Linda
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latest exchange rate at Akbank today 2.82.
WW
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Hold onto your pantihoses girls !:D
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Ok then.
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MAY. 15 10:33 A.M. ET The Turkish lira dropped some 4 percent against the dollar on Monday reaching its weakest level in more than a year and forcing the Turkish Central Bank to suspend foreign exchange purchases.
Analysts said the lira slipped as foreign investors continued to withdraw from the Turkish market over higher-than-expected inflation figures and fears over the country's rising current account deficit.
The lira stood at 1.4498 to the dollar on Monday, from Friday's close of 1.4120 Turkish lira and the Central Bank said it was suspending foreign exchange purchases because of volatility.
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oooops.
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.... so not only has the lira started it's predicted collapse - interest rates are predicted to fall and you cannot get your lira back into pounds or dollars.
Quote from Fethiye:
"Ok if you're a tourist as your £ will buy more or an exporter as your goods will be cheaper, but not so good of you have all your cash in the lira and are living off the interest (as many are). So, make the most of the high rates now while they last and spread your investment risk!"
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I think in the short term anyone who goes over will find they are better off taking sterling & paying sterling for everything - Like it used to be a few years back. At the moment no-one will want to be paid in YTL.
i sincerely hope all you ex-pats didn't put all your eggs in the YTL.
Linda
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You can let go now Steve.:D
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Twang!
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Look I may be thick but can some one explain to me what all the fuss is about on the exchange rate. If you have decided to live in Turkey and never leave then surely even with the exchange rate going up and down you still get a better return in lira than in a sterling account? or am I thick lol
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For the sake of simplicity. Assume 50 weeks per year.
Say you have £100,000 (100K) on deposit in the Uk at 5% - it brings you £5000 a year. This is great as it costs you just under £100 (230YTL) a week to live in Turkey at an exchange rate of 2.3YTL. You are solvent.
If the YTL exchange rate suddenly rises to 2.8 against the £ the money kept on UK deposit you exchange into YTL every week rises in YTL terms to 280YTL. You find that you can spend more as prices haven't quite shot up that amount - yet! They will in a few weeks but at the moment you are feeling the benefit.
If however instead of keeping your money in the UK you transfer all to Turkey at exchange rate of 2.30 you get 230,00YTL (230K YTL) to take advantage of their great interest rate of say 15%. You are doing great initially getting 345YTL a week (You only need 230YTL to live on - so you are well off!)
The exchange rate rises to 2.80. You are still OK as you are still doing better than if you had left your money in the UK - you're still getting 345YTL & you only need 280YTL a week to live on once the price rises go through the pipeline.
The exchange rate goes through the roof. It's now 3.5YTL to the £. You are still OK as you are still getting 345YTL a week on yout Turkish Investment so you can live OK. Price rises have really made a mark now & things are more expensive so those extra few meals out a week will have to be cut back on.
If your money is in the UK earning a miserly 5% then you're OK as you get 350YTL a week at this exchange rate. Doesn't buy you any more or less, it makes little difference.
You do notice your neighbours who bragged about how much interest they were getting don't seem to be going out as much as they used to & they seem to have gone a bit quiet.
The YTL exchange rate goes up to 4.0YTL to the £. Interest rates are still 15% so your 230,000YTL in the Turkish bank still brings in 345YTL a week. Prices have gone up & you're feeling the squeeze. You seriously think about going back to Britain as things are getting expensive.
Horror of horrors - the exchange rate has reached 4.6YTL. You are still getting 15% but your 345YTL a week isn't enough to live on. You decide you might look at going back. You realise that your £100K you placed in YTL at 2.3 to the £ - 230,000YTL is now only worth £50K just 2 years down the line.
Had you kept your money in the UK with their abysmal rates you'd still have £100K, with the UK inflation rate of around 3% it wouldn't be worth quite as much as that but at least it hasn't halved.
Simplistic view - If the YTL exchange rate were to go like this the Turkish government would have to put interest rates up as in days of 50-100% inflation the interest rates were 40% or more
The Turkish government wants to reduce the interest rate to 10% - still much better than the UK but if the YTL performs badly then if you have all your eggs in the YTL uou could hurt badly.
Take a look at historical exchange rates between the £ & YTL. Spread the risk.
Jan 94.... 22,074 Lira to £
" 95.... 60,853 "
" 96.... 94,428 "
" 97.... 185,586 "
" 98.... 342,846 "
" 99.... 518,771 "
"2000.... 878,414 "
" 01...1,003,537 "
" 02...2,142,037 "
" 03...2,689,696 "
" 04...2,546,403 "
" 05...2,628,116 " or 2.628YTL
" 06...2,326,822 " or 2.326YTL
Hope you understood that
Linda
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Every year we hear the same old story.
ooh, the Lira is going up to 3 to the £.
Crabbit
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Dave
It's only been the last 3 years that there has been ANY stability in the YTL. I'd dearly love for it to be stable so we could also take advantage of the great interest rates when we come over. The great interest rates could come at a great price though. Isn't it better to be aware of that rather than hide your head in the sand?
Talk to some people who went to Turkey a few years before you, when they were getting 40%+ interest yet their money was eroding fast. How many of them thought they never need work again but now they complain all the time that things are getting expensive?
Maybe you should start listening? Is the Turkish economy really THAT strong now?
Linda
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Linda
I have never hidden my head in the sand.
My motto is, if you can`t afford it, forget it.
Crabbit. (Skint)
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Dave
Not saying you have hidden your head in the sand. BUT I bet you've met people who have.
I know I've met a few who seeing the interest rates available decided they'd up sticks relocate to Turkey & live the good life.
They did little or no research, placed their savings all in Turkish lira & then had to start work again because of rampant inflation & erosion of their nest egg.
The last 3 years everyone has had a real good ride, with great interest & a pretty stable Lira. If they had timed things right they could have more than doubled their money by switching in & out of the currency.
If my earlier posting makes just one person think then that's a good thing.
I agree with you - if you can't afford it, forget it - but some people think they can afford it (without going into it properly) just by looking at headline interest rates.
I'd prefer to take the worst case scenario - then at least if rampant inflation & devaluation take place I still know we'll be OK.
Linda
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Good post Linda.
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Just as a reminder from 2001 "Many banks, financial institutions, business related to these banks and individuals ended up bankrupt" which thereofre created mega-inflation (so it does effect anyone who has YTL as the high street cost increase will outpace interest rates) and unemployment.
I find no harm in keeping an eye on the economy in whatever country I intend to live in or holiday in.
Dippz
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Crabbit, i know another black n white animal for you - Ostrich! :P
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Linda thanks for the information, you obviously know what you're talking about. Its made me think twice about putting money into a YTL account
Fran
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Fran
I'm not saying don't put any money into a YTL account.
When we do eventually get over there & can keep a better eye on the currency we'll be putting SOME money into a YTL interest bearing account.
I wouldn't consider however placing all or the larger portion of our money in YTL - just in case the worst happened.
Linda
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What is it now(14th June)? I'm going out there on Monday. I didn't get last year but two years ago it was 2.4 Milion to the pound when I was there. And can you still use old Lire?
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Hi Bill. No you cant use old Lira,you have to change it at the Ziraat bank. Thats the one closest to the Gima supermarket. No other banks in Fethiye will take old currency.
WW
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I don't have much anyway, about five million, so I'll just keep it so that I can claim to be a multi-millionaire! I've just found out that today's official rate is 2.95 to the pound.
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hello. Im just reading the metro (freebie paper in london) Tourist rates Turkey supplied by travelex 2.77 lira to the pound.. they have quoted around this figure for the past week.. but i guess this is not taking into consideration the commission charge! Its suprising the difference in rates..!
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A good place to get you currency is Marks and Spencer, you can do it on line and check the exchange rate. Today their rate is 2.82
Fran
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Can you do this - Maybe easier if you are living here - when the lira is high like now - put your pounds in your lira account (therefore get more lira) - keep an eye on rates and if it falls transfer the liras to your GBP account (therefore getting more pounds and protecting your investment)? Or is this not possible - just wondering!!??[?] :)
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If you have some spare cash then this is a way to make a few quid. Just keep an eye on the exchange rates. i do.. Asye is brilliant at the Finansbank and all you need to do is fax her over the transfer details.
Harley
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just bringing everyone up to date on exchange rate, you can currently get 2.97tl at exchange offices but if you do a little footwork round the banks they will negotiate to 3.00 on sums around 800pnds sterling. :)
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3.1 YTL/£ today in the bank !!!!!!
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if you want to exit the country and you wished to change all your lira back to sterling when would be the best time to do it and how?
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quote:
Originally posted by Linda1953
if you want to exit the country and you wished to change all your lira back to sterling when would be the best time to do it and how?
Before you fly & at a bank.
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I agree with Crabbit, don't wait to bring it to the UK or you will lose at least 10%, probably more.
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You coming back to Wavertree Road Linda?
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Well that was useful Crabbit. I mean do they have a buy and sell rate and does anyone know what these are off hand? Or as someone said if you just ask to change your lira back to sterling straight up? Nope Rimms, maybe on the Wirral! But just thinking about it at the moment!My sister is coming over to Hisaronu end of September and going to discuss it then!
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My son changed some lira back into sterling this morning he didn't have much left but they bought it at 3.06 to the pound. This was at a Thomas Cook agency. Hope this helps
Fran
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Best to watch the exchange rates if its a lot of cash and jump in when the lira is stronger - its better now than June - depnds how long you have really. Banks are always going to make money out of you - thats how it works - you could try exchanging with a trader locally that does exchange at a price good to you both - thats what id do with a fair bit of cash
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You need to go ask your bank in Turkey what % they use OR look in the window & work it out yourself based on their buy & sell prices. If it's a large sum your bank might offer you a better deal.
Otherwise wait till the Lira is strong & either sell to the bank or furtively offer to sell to the tourists at a good rate - but don't get caught.
Linda
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Good luck Linda where ever you end up. I will be sad to if you leave Turkey knowing how hard you tried to get there in the first place.
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Hi Linda
Sorry to hear you may have to cash in and go back to UK. You ask about changing Lira back into Sterling. I hope you have not changed large amounts of Sterling into Lira when in Turkey, but have only changed up relatively small amounts on a weekly or monthly basis. If you have very large amounts of Lira it may be worth paying for professional advice.
All financial institutions engaged in exchanging money will have different Buy and Sell rates - it is how they make living. Today, for example, with a banking exchange rate of 2.75 YTL = £1 you might only get 2.70 YTL when buying with your £ but would need 2.80 YTL to buy your pound back. Whatever happens you will "lose out" on the exchange rate since you are paying a fee the the agency changing your money (you are buying a service). If you have held Lira for several months then you are likely to lose out more since - again only an example - it would only have cost you 2.35 YTL (plus exchange agent's profit) to buy a pound one year ago but today it would cost 2.75 YTL (plus exchange agent's profit).
So you need to shop around for exchange rates and think about when to change your money. Today the Lira stands at 2.75:£ which is a hell of a lot better for you than the day it hit 3.20:£. BUT this strengthening of the Lira came at the cost to the Turkish Central Bank of thousands of millions (literally) of Dollar sales from their reserves in order to prop up the Lira. Sooner or later the bank will run out of Dollars and the Lira will (quite probably) start to weaken again.
So, you will almost certainly lose money on changing YTL back into £s but you need to minimize your loss. Is tomorrow a good time to cash in some of your Lira? It is a gamble, but I know what I would do.
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Thanks everyone for your help, its good to know there are people on this forum willing to give up their time and energy into providing advice which is why I come on here. I will consider which is the best option for my circumstances.:P
Still not sure what I'm doing Rimms - I've had a marriage proposal and I'm trying to decide yes or no. :D:D
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Just remember you can't him back to the shop when you find out he's broke ! LOL
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You are not going to be his Mary are you Linda?
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He is a man with an established business doing very well at the moment(solar panels and tanks if anyone is interested and his rates are very good and he is an honest trustworthy businessman here in Fethiye, who does a good job).
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why does he need 3 promos? is there an echo oo oo oo
LOL - 2 deleted - Stoop:D
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excuse me who do you think you are talking to? I dont expect to have to justify what I write on this forum to an angry 13 year old kid so keep your comments to yourself!: :)
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Linda - calm down! You must have pressed "submit reply" 3 times as your post appeard 3 times! That's what C1 was on about. I deleted the other 2 - hence my edit note.
Anyway this is a "pound /lira" thread so keep on topic please.
Stoop
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You`ve got to be bloody quick to click on "submit reply" 3 times.
Crabbit
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Did I?? dont recall doing that! must have been the computer it was very slow and kept crashing! Sorry for overreacting Stoop!
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Hi Linda,
I think you are apologising to the wrong person. Anne
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am I?
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I just wish I was thirteen again, age is no precurser to knowledge, the saying is "there is no fool like an old fool" 13 + 38 =
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This is turning into a chatline, can we please get back on topic!
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Wouldn't it be better to wait until the lira drops to say 2200 tlr during the winter to change the money back over as this was what was suggested to me by someone who has lived here in Fethiye for a number of years? That way I will recoup some of my sterling that I have lost during the summer with the rise of the lira to the pound?
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You have got more chance of winning "GoodLuck charm of the year" than the Lira has of dropping to 2.2 again.
Crabbit. :D
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is or has the headline inflation rate moved much, I seem to remember that it was comming down albiet slowly, also has the price of fuel continued to rise as in the uk ie 25-30%higher, I also remember an oil pipline that was to connect turkey to iran or iraq. these things all effect exchange rate, my advise hold sterling and only change small amount as and when you need to. 8)
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Annual inflation in July was 11.69%. This is up 0.85% on June.
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one can dream! but it did last winter even as low as 2165
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quote:
Originally posted by Linda1953
one can dream! but it did last winter even as low as 2165
BULL,
If it had, i would have cashed my Lira in for £`s and made approx £40k profit.
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To keep imaddy happy, i have deleted my chart showing the exchange rates for the last 20 months, which being a VERY organised person, i have updated every day, and will continue to do so, with or without nosey busybodies butting their noses in.
Crabbit. (MHR). A (very) well organised person,
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Well thats pretty comprehensive!:D:D
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I aim to please.
:D :D
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Crabbit, I am assuming you are refering to me being a "nosey busybody" because I had the audacity to point out that there may be an issue with you putting those rates on the forum.
Luckily I don't give a ***t, however as my previous post (that has somehow got deleted) there is no issue with you collecting this data for your own personal use.
And I am so pleased for you that you are so very organised and able to so.
Warmest regards,
Lorraine
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I thought everybody kept a record of the exchange rates.
Signed
Another sad person.
PS Crabbit,
I thought those figures looked like the rates for changing lira to pounds.
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Excuse me CRABBIT - when I foolishly transfered over some sterling on the well meaning advice of someone here in Calis it was at the rate of 2165 in Finansbank in either Feb or March, the girl behind the desk never actually told me until the transaction had been done so it was too late to do anything about it or yes I was naive when I first came here but not any more.So looks like you missed out on 40K then eh! LOL
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Can someone please explain the problem with putting the historical exchange rates on the forum? Am I missing something here? Are the copyrighted?
Stoop
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Thats got me mystified too as those rates have been published publicly every day, they aren't exactly a big secret are they?
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If someone was to collate these figures from say a newspaper, a bank window, or even from the web, who's to say where they got them from and stop them publishing.
Pete
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Sorry dont know why I kept typing 6 instead of 9 it was 2195 - just under the 2200. Must be the heat! LOL
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Maybe I can save you all a bit of time?
Go to this website link http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory and fill in the details and it will provide you with a list of historical rates going back years. Cut and paste into Excel and create a graph. Always easier when someone else does it and it's a bonafide source too. ;)