Lira getting Stronger - Why?

[JohnF]

The Central Banks support of the lira seems to be working at the moment,with the pound now below the  4.50 lira mark.

I think the one to watch is the USD rate, it will have the biggest economic benefit if they can get it trading on a more stable basis.  Sitting about 2.93/4 just now which is a decent rise considering it was nearly 3.07 a week or so ago.

JF

[JohnF]

Events over the weekend have hit the lira pretty hard - as soon as the Australian markets opened it went from 4.46 to 4.53 against the pound and from 2.91 to 2.95 against the dollar within a couple of hours.

How the European then subsequently the American markets react will be interesting.

JF

[yabanci]

With the General Election just over 1 week away it was no suprise that the Turkish Central Bank kept Interest  Rates unchanged again today after its monthly meeting. The lira is now trading at 2.87 to the dollar and 4.42 to the pound.

[JohnF]

While the election result may not have been the best for the people of Turkey (in my opinion) it certainly helped out the lira - currently 4.29 to the pound (from 4.29) and strengthening even as I type this.

Back to under 4.00 by end of day?

JF

[usedbustickets]

Under 4? I am not so sure, particularly when people remember that Reg wants, no demands, low interest rates. Now bring me the head of the Central Bank Governer.

[kevin3]

  Last week Reg suggested a new suspect be added to the list of culprits causing all the problems in Turkey.

  He said the worlds press complaints about the crackdown on the media in Turkey is being controlled by

  " A Supreme Mind ".  I think he'll find a few more as things worsen.!! I suspect Turkey will see an exodus

  of free thinking people.

[Colwyn]

Exchange rate has settled down between 4.35 and 4.36. Now we just have to wait for Basci to be sacked and a couple of points to be knocked off interest and then we'll be heading back off towards 5 again.

[yabanci]

You could be right Colwyn, trading above 4.40 this morning on XE.

[Colwyn]

The central bank voted to keep interest rates steady and the currency instantly fell. But that's the Bank of England and the currency is Pound Sterling which is why the Turkish Lira appears to have got stronger. If you look at TL:$ and TL:€ rates the lira is still gently falling.

[Colwyn]

"The American economy added 271,000 jobs in October, the government reported Friday, a very strong showing that makes an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve much more likely when policy makers meet next month."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/business/economy/jobs-report-hiring-unemployment-october.html?_r=0

If the US rate does rise this will put further pressure on the lira. The Central Bank's response will give a good indication of where the new AKP government is heading. TL has already fallen against the dollar by 2% just responding to the US news.