Lira getting Stronger - Why?

[stoop]

We are buying at a time when we think it's a good deal. Neither you or I have any idea what the rate will be next June - when we go out again. It just might go the other way - who knows?

Yes I do get it that you thought that 4.5/£ was probably a better deal than you felt you could get next June so you invested now.

I think that is nonsense - but I further agree with you that the rate could go up or down, and that nobody knows for sure.

I reckon the rate in June will be better for those with pounds than the 4.5 you got. You think in all probability the exact opposite is likely. Fair enough, different views are good.

I have £30 to a charity of your choice if the rate in June next year is lower than 4.5/£ - I am that confident - are you £30 to charity confident that you got a good deal (i.e. if the rate next June will be higher than 4.5 you pay £30 to a charity of my choice)?

Not long now Scunner. 4.31 today. Not sure I'm gonna lose this now but if I do then I'll just buy more

[Colwyn]

You're probably safe Stoop but you might still jinx it; the lira has lost half a percent since you posted. Of course, if the Telegraph comes up with another opinion poll like the one the other day showing Brexit trailing by 13% then the pound will go soaring and mess up your bet.

[stoop]

Well we got 4.17 today and 4.25 last week.

I'll take whatever happens tbh. A no lose bet as we can always top up if it goes beyond 4.50

[stoop]

Yes but that poll was fixed

[Colwyn]

The price of oil was below $30 a barrel in January. It has now gone up to $50. This might be expected to feed through to inflation in Turkey but it has been coming down steadily from 9.58% in January to 6.57% in April. Should that change, it will be instructive to see what the CB will do with interest rates.

[JohnF]

What a difference a week makes.  The markets certainly think its going to be a Remain vote this week and sterling has taken a bit of a boost as a result.

A week ago you'd get 4.14tl to your quid, today sitting at 4.27tl.

What'll it be on Friday...?

Looking good for your EUR's for September Colwyn     back up to 1.30 against the pound.

JF

[Jack13]

4.15 at calis exchange today.

[JohnF]

4.26 at Finansbank ten minutes ago.

JF

[Colwyn]

The markets certainly think its going to be a Remain vote this week and sterling has taken a bit of a boost as a result.

Somebody believes that the majority of voting Brits won't go crackers on Thursday and torpedo the UK economy. I do hope they are right. George Soros predicts the £ will lose 20% of value if the disaster of Brexit happens - and he's the chap that made billions out of Norman Lamont's bumbling incompetence in just a few hours some years ago. I wish I had as much confidence in the outcome as the markets seem to do.

[JohnF]

Bookies look like they're following the money markets, odds for a remain vote back to 1/4 or 5 on.

JF