Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum
General Topics => All things that have nothing to do with Turkey => Topic started by: Scunner on April 14, 2016, 17:32:19 PM
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Shake it all about
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I used to be indecisive...now I'm not so sure!
On a serious note...after much deliberation my vote will be to leave Europe.
(It's a huge decision to make (in my opinion) but I am hopeful that will be best for our children / grandchildren.
Dave
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I was undecided. Now I'm not.
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I may be wrong here, but if we opt out of Europe do we not lose our right to use the European Court of Human Rights? If so God help anyone who has suffered any a mis-carriage of justice. Also, just a thought, but if we opt out the Govt will be able to do what they want about cutting benefits because the U.K. will not have to take notice of any European guidelines.
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I was undecided. Now I'm not.
I used to live in the UK. Now I dont.
:P
I may be wrong here, but if we opt out of Europe do we not lose our right to use the European Court of Human Rights?
No. Two different "bodies". To access the ECHR you need to a member state of the Council of Europe - membership of which is not dependent upon membership of the EU.
JF
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Thanks for clearing that up for me, but I still voting to stay in.
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European Court of Human Rights: in my mind it seems to smack of votes for prisoners; for rapists and robbers allowed to stay in this country to be close to their family etc. - however, it's only what I've read.
Much like straight cucumbers and other nonsense, I'm not sure what, if any, daft decisions have been made on Britain's behalf "over there".
I'm also not wholly sure that Brexit necessarily means no further influence from the ECHR. I think we'll still have access to it.
More enlightened chaps and ladies please advise.....
(I have a long - standing Belgian friend who asked me why we (British) refer to Europe as "somewhere else" and as "somewhere not very nice" ;).
He seems awfully keen for us to become even closer.
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The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) is not part of the European Union (EU) although membership of it is a precondition to joining the EU.
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Love Europe but hate the EU! Guess what I'm out ;)
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I love Europe, it's the unaccountability of the EU I can't abide. If we don't agree we can't vote them all out. Staying in but in a much revamped EU sounds great but simply isn't going to happen.
Some of the social legislation is beneficial but couldn't we just adopt that anyway as a standalone democracy? If the tories won't do that at least we have the chance to vote them out.
From uncharacteristically undecided to OUT. We're strong enough to run our own business affairs - it's just been so long since we did, we can't remember.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I may be naive, but I am scared. Sometimes is the devil you know not better than the devil you dont?
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No
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I'm confident we can stand on our own as a country, my worry is how long it will take to find new markets, lots of companies live month to month and may not survive in the interim period. if I was German French etc. and we vote to pull out, I would be like a woman scorned and say we don't need to trade with you. I really want to leave Europe but so many uncertainties. I will be fine I don't need a job but most of my family do.
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I was undecided. Now I'm not.
AND ?????
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It depends on what mood I am in ;)
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I'm confident we can stand on our own as a country, my worry is how long it will take to find new markets, lots of companies live month to month and may not survive in the interim period. if I was German French etc. and we vote to pull out, I would be like a woman scorned and say we don't need to trade with you. I really want to leave Europe but so many uncertainties. I will be fine I don't need a job but most of my family do.
Mark the overwhelming number of businesses (and public bodies or agencies) do not trade with Europe, or indeed trade internationally at all. I do not think the Germans or French would start to play games with us, as the British Market is too important to them, and the rest of Europe. So I am not sure that those particular worries and the impact they would have on jobs stands up to scrutiny. Almost certainly your family members will be better off in the jobs market, as that 'surplus' labour from the EU in the last 10 years - in particular since the population of the ultra low wage economies of east europe were able to work in the UK and then the rest of the EU - has been used to fill hundreds of thousands of jobs and often driving down both wages and conditions at the same time.
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If its true according brexit coming out of EU can save UK over £3million a week?
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I can understand the political arguments against the EU even though I don't share them. The economic arguments for Brexit seem flimsy at best. Four months ago I kept hearing that the EU was an old and decaying economy and Britain's future lay with trading with new and vibrant economies such as China (nobody explained why they supposed we couldn't increase trade with China while remaining in the EU - as indeed we have been doing). Now that China is in its own slump, is dumping its surplus steel on us and has raised a 46% tariff wall against British steel being exported to them, I notice that the Brexiteers have gone very quite quiet about the Chinese future for Britain. It is mere wishful thinking to suppose that tearing the UK out of the EU, and then entering long and undoubtedly difficult negotiations about our future economic relationship will not have a significant medium term impact on the British economy. This is not merely because we will be "the outsiders" it will be because the EU itself will suffer deeply from the shock of our exit and our main market will be thrown into recession. In the longer term perhaps our economy will recover. Perhaps.
Another argument is about immigration. I doubt whether leaving the EU will have any major impact on new UK immigration and the Brexiteers have sworn that those already in this country will not be affected and can stay. Of all the "leave" arguments the most feeble is cost of membership. The cost of EU membership per person is 55p a day; a quarter of the amount a great many people appear willing to pay for their morning cup of coffee. Surely we are not going to base a decision on our children's and grandchildren's future on such paltry bookkeeping? How much of that 55p do you suppose will find its way into your pocket, or the NHS, or the education system? And how much into further tax cuts for the wealthy?
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But is the fact that things might be difficult for a while if we leave a reason just to stay forever? Maybe it's a good storm to ride.
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I like a rough ride. :)
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I can understand the political arguments against the EU even though I don't share them. The economic arguments for Brexit seem flimsy at best.
Let me question your first point that Brexiteers were looking at building an arrangement with China as an alternative to European trade..nonesense! I have not heard anyone making the case that in some way the UK's exit would mean that we no longer trade with europe and then build relations with other countries. We would continue to trade with Europe after exit, in much the same way as we do today, and of course we would continue to trade with the rest of the world as we do today. However, we would be in a better position to protect our home industries if we need to, for example we could quickly put tariffs on Chinese steel should they be dumping cheap steel into our market, or for example choose to import cheaper food from the rest of he world free from European tariffs designed to protect, for example, FRench or German farmers or agri industries.
If we are going to talk flimsy economics, then you need look no further than the cornerstone of further European integration, that is the Euro. The whole European economy (including the UK's) currently, and over the last five years, has a drag on growth from the inadequacies of the Euro; the European Central bank policies; and the flimsy performance of the weak banking systems and economies themselves of a number of the constituent national members of the Eurozone. It might be a fantastic currency to replace a multitude of currencies operating in a single closed market, but it is not so efficient when dealing with disparate national economic performances; differing national fiscal policies, and in some cases tax evasion on a huge scale. Never mind the sevre economic problems we have seen it produce in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and indeed in France and Italy. It might be a big world currency, but I would judge that it is smaller as a whole than its constituent national parts, simply because of these and other inefficiencies. And given the EU (and the European Central Bank's) and their unaccountable political elite's poor record on dealing with any number of issues around economic performance and other issues such as security or agriculture or industrial policies I can only see the Euro to be a continuing millstone around the neck of the EU in particular for years to come.
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The exit campaign is built on pure conjecture and has no real substance about what will happen if the UK leaves. There is this naive belief that once we leave that we can continue to trade as we did before we left. It is utter nonsense. Every trade agreement negotiated under the EU banner will be null and void. Currently the EU has 46 trade agreements with other nations and is in the process of negotiating another 70. The EU and the US are currently negotiating the biggest free trade market agreement. So when the UK leaves she will have to negotiate her own agreements. Negotiating new agreements is not a 10 minute job and can take many years. This will result in uncertainty in the medium term. At present we export 45% of our goods and services to the EU. Our next biggest trading partner is the US which takes 15%. The 45% will become subject to tariffs. The 15% with the US is covered by EU trade agreements.One of the main reasons why companies like Toyota and Nissan have established plants in the UK is to allow access to a free market. The additional tariffs will certainly make exports more expensive. These companies have already said that leaving the EU will raise certain difficulties and will influence future decisions. Foreign investment in the UK will suffer. This will be to the advantage of the EU as companies will consider relocating or starting new ventures in Eastern Europe. The choice is invest in the UK with a population of 65 million or Europe with 450 million people.The one thing that business hates is uncertainty and that will certainly come in the truck load. We have seen the impact of this uncertainty in the dramatic fall in sterling since the referendum announcement. Some forecasters are stating that parity will be achieved with the Euro if we leave. I read all this about the Euro and yes it is far from perfect but it is still one of the major hard currencies of the world. Since the introduction of the Euro sterling has depreciated against it and is continuing to depreciate. It is another smokescreen of exit campaign. We did not join the Euro and we cannot be forced to join it. If the rest of Europe want to integrate more that is their decision. The Euro did not cause the last recession we should look towards the US and sub prime lending for the starting point. We have survived outside the Euro and we will continue to do so. But will we be able to survive outside the free trade and that is what this referendum should be about.
The basics of the EU is still that it is a free trade area. The impression that every directive from Brussels is another nail in our human rights is just another untruth. Directives from the EU include
- the working directive of 48 hours and break times.
- paternal leave and extra protection in the work place for pregnant women
- Pension protection on change of company ownership
- Food, health and animal rights
- Travel and the opening of competition.
These are just some of the areas. The exiters want to remove the directives that generally apply to workers rights like the working directives and health and safety as they are considered a burden. We might as well go back to sending children up chimneys again. Let people get killed because they do not have proper protection in the workplace. Go back to letting HGV drivers driver for 100 hours and fall asleep at the wheel. Let us allow vulture capitalists to raid Pension funds. The removal of employment law impacts on the ability of the workers to protect themselves without the opportunity to appeal to European courts.
Nigel Farage argues that we can create a Swiss or Norwegian model and continue to trade with the EU taking the good bits is nonsense. The Swiss and Norwegians still have to contribute to the EU budget and comply with the vast majority of EU regulation. Norway actually pays more per capita to the EU than the UK pays per capita.The agreement with the Swiss excludes financial services which is one of the UK's major exports. So the Swiss and Norwegians still have to comply and pay but have no seat at the table to influence the decisions that impact them. I listen to Farage and Boris going on about the £12 billion we will save and how it will sort the NHS out when we will be giving it back to the EU as payment for the privilege to trade. Boris(I am looking after myself) stated that we should be paying for medical care and would like to see the NHS partly privatised.Boris has admitted that there will be consequences for UK employment but it is a risk worth taking. It is if you have millions in the bank like he has and not to have to pay the mortgage or put food on the table for the family. This idea that we should vote to leave so that we can go back and renegotiate an even better deal is childish. First, we are assuming that Europe will agree to negotiate. Second, they will give better terms. It is one hell of a risk. The knives will be out and any negotiations will not start for years. Some foreign ministers have openly stated that if the UK leaves there will be consequences.We kid ourselves that we are big players and that the empire still exists. Sorry those days are gone. When the world is heading into consolidation we want to set sail alone.
This referendum could be the end of the UK as we know it. Scotland if they vote in favour of staying will almost certainly have an independence referendum again.
With regards to establishing new markets with China and other developing nations it is full of danger. These countries are much more interested in selling into established markets than buying from them. The UK runs a massive trading deficit with China. The Chinese have recently flooded the world market with cheap steel and will probably result in the end of steel making in the UK. At a minimum it will result in massive job cuts. Blame has been put on the EU and that is not true. When the Chinese started to flood the market the EU wanted to impose 68% tariff and who opposed it. Yes, the UK government. Countries like the US, Canada, China and Australia do not want the UK to leave. They are happy dealing with a market that they know and the regulations that apply.
The financial services directive of 2010(not sure of date) allows the free movement and trade within the free market block. The UK is a service nation as we have not been been a manufacturing nation for years. The EU actually protects our trading in services. Some of our main earners include banking and insurance and these could be seriously hampered by leaving the UK.
Then there is the whole muddle around immigration and the free movement of labour. Typical of the UK press and sensational headlines that usually highlights one or two situations. We are led to believe that the immigrant is the route of all problems. It is a fact that the UK relies on immigration to fill the skill shortages. The average immigrant is better qualified than the locally produced worker. Some 35% of immigrants come with degrees as opposed 21% of the local population. The UK population is getting older and the average age of the foreign worker is 24 against 40+ for the UK worker. So the UK leaves the EU what is the position of the current immigrants? Do they stay or do we deport them? Where do they stand with the rights guaranteed to them under EU regulation? Deport them and finish up with even bigger labour shortages. Make life extremely difficult for Brits who want to retire or work abroad.
It is an accepted fact that immigrants in work contribute some 34% more into the system than what they take out.
Immigration masks many things. In fact it is only 50% that come from the EU. So why is the UK not able to manage and control the other 50%. The emphasis is generally on the Muslim population in the UK. Most of them come the Indian sub continent and Africa not Europe.
I listen to these health tourism arguments and it is again bent to suit the exit campaign. The UK is under no obligation to treat visitors free of charge. EU members should have a EHIC card that allows the UK to recoup the cost of treatment. The fact that the UK does not collect the fees and does not refuse treatment is the incompetence of the UK system.
Yes, the EU is far from perfect and needs reform. But is it worse than taking the risk to be cut off in a very unstable world that we now live in.
This referendum is really a sideshow. It is the culmination of 30 years of Tory infighting from the time that Pro Europeans led the plot to get rid of Maggie.
As for UKIP it is nothing more than an opportunity to spread fear about immigration and exploit the Tory divisions. Farage is happy to take his big fat salary from the EU. Here is a man who hates Europe so much that he drives a Volvo.
It is over 3 years since I posted on the forum but I feel that this referendum is the most important decision that the country has been asked to make for many a year. We are not just voting for the current generation but generations to come. I will vote to stay for the sake of my grandchildren as I believe that the alternatives are full of risks and danger.
I will get the usual Brexit campaign response that I am spreading fear. I am stating tangible outcomes. All I hear from the other side is conjecture and fairytales. Fairytales like there is a better world out there. Don't worry nothing will change except we will have £12 billion in our pockets and we will be happy.
Apologies for such a long ramble, so speak to all again in 3 years time.
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The most sensible post I have read so far, I'm for staying in, but don't agree to paying more money than others.
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The exit campaign is built on pure conjecture and has no real substance about what will happen if the UK leaves.
The campaign to stay in is based largely on conjecture in regard to what will happen if the UK leaves. I guess that type of speculation is acceptable to you though?
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Welcome back Ovacikpeedoff.
And, wow, great speech...
Don't leave it another three years :)
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Wow Ovacikpeedoff very informative read...infact more informative than the government leaflet I recently received through my door to convince me to stay in. There leaflet didn't convince me enough but you certainly have! Maybe the government should have paid you the £9million (or whatever amount it was) to write their leaflets :D
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Nice to see you paying a visit OPO.
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I wonder if the votes ratio is in any way linked to the geographic location (or roots for ex pats) of the voter - as in those from the south of England favouring "out" and those from the north of England and Scotland favouring "in"? What's the Welsh take on it anyone?
JF
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Welcome back Ovacikpeedoff.
And, wow, great speech...
Don't leave it another three years :)
You wasn't saying that three years ago, when he was telling you that austerity was the way forward!!
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Wow Ovacikpeedoff very informative read...infact more informative than the government leaflet I recently received through my door to convince me to stay in. There leaflet didn't convince me enough but you certainly have! Maybe the government should have paid you the £9million (or whatever amount it was) to write their leaflets :D
It would be informative if it was not full of fear, inaccuracies and half baked economic thought. Mind you it is not hard to be more informative that the UK government document, a real document of fear and a complete absence of any political or economic balance. As in deed was the Treasury model being peddled around today by Gideon Osborne to frighten the natives!!
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Yes it must have been me that brought OPO out again, as indeed it was me who sent him away last time when he got himself whipped up in a lather in various 'political economy' threads trying to argue that square should be round, in particular about the virtues of austerity, when the evidence then suggested otherwise, and has since been confirmed that austerity has not worked for the UK or indeed Europe. I'm not flattered that it was probably my post that drew him out again, but there was always something personal there and I'd rather he'd have stayed away, as he got nasty last time as he expressed his arguments and always demanded the last word, that his missus finally told him to pack it in as it was making himself ill, and thankfully he did. But now he is back, and it looks the same old winbag rhetoric we heard before.. so I have tried to address some of the points he raises below in red.
The exit campaign is built on pure conjecture and has no real substance about what will happen if the UK leaves. There is this naive belief that once we leave that we can continue to trade as we did before we left. It is utter nonsense. Every trade agreement negotiated under the EU banner will be null and void. Currently the EU has 46 trade agreements with other nations and is in the process of negotiating another 70. The EU and the US are currently negotiating the biggest free trade market agreement. So when the UK leaves she will have to negotiate her own agreements. Negotiating new agreements is not a 10 minute job and can take many years. Like I said trade is a two way street and it is in neither the UK's or any other trading partner for there not to be the willingness to get an agreement in place, and anyway we would have at least two years to do so as we would remain members of the EA This will result in uncertainty in the medium term. At present we export 45% of our goods and services to the EU. And what would be the reason or reasons why this would not continue or indeed be improved when we are out of the EUOur next biggest trading partner is the US which takes 15%. What's that got to do with EU exit??The 45% will become subject to tariffs. How do you KNOW they will? You'd like to think or perhaps hope so in order to increase the fear factor in your argument, but like I said before trade is a two way street and it is in no ones interest to prevent trade The 15% with the US is covered by EU trade agreements.Which can be replaced by a bi-lateral UK-USA agreement, not hard work and given our long standing relationship with the USA I'm not sure why you think it would be a problem? One of the main reasons why companies like Toyota and Nissan have established plants in the UK is to allow access to a free market. Hmm that's an interesting point why then does Japan, Korea, German, French, Italian motor manufacturers invest non EU countries, for example Turkey, and the products then find their way into the EU??The additional tariffs will certainly make exports more expensive. There you go again with the assumption that there WILL be tariffs, and as I hope I have shown above that is very, very, unlikely. And anyway in case you hadn’t noticed most UK companies or public or semi public organisations do not trade with the EU or indeed internationally, so the impact on the whole economy is nowhere near as bad as you paintThese companies have already said that leaving the EU will raise certain difficulties and will influence future decisions. Crossing national borders has never worried multi national companies, they are past and present masters of not worrying about them through the use of ItF or Intra-firm Trades. Tut tut there for forgetting that old Fordist economic ploy (Foreign investment in the UK will suffer. Not necessarily as we will be able to encourage investment through all sorts of measures that we cannot currently do under EU anti competitive rules, at last the central and local/regional government will be able to attract investment without worrying about upsetting one or other of our EU partnersThis will be to the advantage of the EU as companies will consider relocating or starting new ventures in Eastern Europe. The choice is invest in the UK with a population of 65 million or Europe with 450 million people.Here you go again in your assumption that companies would not have access to europe, they will under a trading agreement, in the same way that for example that GM's Opel factories will have access to the UK market for the models produced in Germany, albeit as a VauxhallThe one thing that business hates is uncertainty and that will certainly come in the truck load. We have seen the impact of this uncertainty in the dramatic fall in sterling since the referendum announcement. The fall - not dramatic - in the value of Sterling is more about the unravelling of Osbornes economic plans than the already known about EU referendum, in particular in how it is dealing with public debt, and the lack of growth in the economy, largely through the Osborne applied austerity plans - you'll remember that, because I do recall you saying how that particular brand of medicine would help the UK economySome forecasters are stating that parity will be achieved with the Euro if we leave. Could you let me know who these loons are, cos I'll steer clear of their advice ... phww I am getting tired of dealing with one after another fear factors in your arguments.. still let's press onI read all this about the Euro and yes it is far from perfect but it is still one of the major hard currencies of the world. So it should be, but the fact is that it has not performed as well as it should, in particular against the real hard currency the dollarSince the introduction of the Euro sterling has depreciated against it and is continuing to depreciate. I think you should more accurately say that since the introduction of the Euro things have been both up and downIt is another smokescreen of exit campaign. We did not join the Euro and we cannot be forced to join it. If the rest of Europe want to integrate more that is their decision. The Euro did not cause the last recession we should look towards the US and sub prime lending for the starting point. We have survived outside the Euro and we will continue to do so. Of course we can survive outside the Euro, but the point is the rest of the EU is either in or signed up to joining the Euro, which will mean that more and more of the EU's policies will be directly driven by the needs of the Euro, which will require increased integration and erosion of national governments and more importantly the national will of independent nations But will we be able to survive outside the free trade and that is what this referendum should be about.
The basics of the EU is still that it is a free trade area. No its not, that disappeared with the old EC and Thatcher's sign up of MastrichtThe impression that every directive from Brussels is another nail in our human rights is just another untruth. Directives from the EU include
- the working directive of 48 hours and break times.Tory opt out
- paternal leave and extra protection in the work place for pregnant women We can still have this sort of social legislation outside the EU, could even be better
- Pension protection on change of company ownership again why can you not have that outside the EU?
- Food, health and animal rights On the latter point most of the animal welfare legislation is either ignored or uninforced across the EU, whether in the Netherlands or Denmark for pigs or in east european nations for just about any welfare provision - which I am afraid is an all too frequent issue right across the EU in a variety industries or sectors of the economy of either ignoring or not enforcing EU legislation - sadly the nation that often, if not always, does the right thing is the UK, even when it is against its own interest to do so.
- Travel and the opening of competition. I don't have any problem travelling to anywhere in the world, in visa and non visa areas do you? Now please do not get me started on european competition rules, when it seems that every EU nation has its own national champion operating in a particular market or industry who invariably dominates and receives all sorts of support from their national government, but generally it works but let’s not kid ourselves it has given us open competition ..again only the stupid British think it is OK, for example, to have the Germans and French (national champions) run the – privatised - UK utilities or transport.
These are just some of the areas. The exiters want to remove the directives that generally apply to workers rights like the working directives and health and safety as they are considered a burdenNo we don't, but I'd remind you that the UK Equal Pay Act, Sex and Race Discrimination and Health and Safety legislation was in place long before Thatch signed up to Marstricht, and they have not been repealed since, and are still the bedrock of UK law, not the EU . We might as well go back to sending children up chimneys again. Let people get killed because they do not have proper protection in the workplace. Go back to letting HGV drivers driver for 100 hours and fall asleep at the wheel. Here we go again trying to put the fear of the bejazus up people, when no sane person who wants out of the EU is even thinking let alone proposing the reintroduction of such stupid proposalsLet us allow vulture capitalists to raid Pension funds. In case you haven't noticed they have done so already whilst we have been in the EU, and not just VC's either The removal of employment law impacts on the ability of the workers to protect themselves without the opportunity to appeal to European courts. You might be right if the Tories hadn't continued to opt out of any workers right. If workers are going to better protect themselves then they need to rely less on Brussels and the EU Commission, but on standing up for themselves through organising into strong trade unions with strong collective bargaining rights
Nigel Farage argues that we can create a Swiss or Norwegian model and continue to trade with the EU taking the good bits is nonsense. The Swiss and Norwegians still have to contribute to the EU budget and comply with the vast majority of EU regulation. Norway actually pays more per capita to the EU than the UK pays per capita. Very interesting but the EU will be bargaining with a key ally who happens to also be the fifth largest economy in the world, and a market that they are keen to remain a part ofThe agreement with the Swiss excludes financial services which is one of the UK's major exports. Tell me have you seen an EU agreement on Financial Services that favours the UK or the City of London yet?So the Swiss and Norwegians still have to comply and pay but have no seat at the table to influence the decisions that impact them. . we have a seat at the table today, but I aint seen much come out of the EU that works in the UK favour, and if we did theTories will probably negotiate an opt out anyway. Ask yourself this one if being at the table brings us influence and opportunity, why did Cameron bring back the best part of bugger all to put before the British electorate to persuad them to vote to remain. I listen to Farage and Boris going on about the £12 billion we will save and how it will sort the NHS out when we will be giving it back to the EU as payment for the privilege to trade.Says who, you or some other europhile, does the USA, China or Canada pay for the privililege of trading with Europe Boris(I am looking after myself) stated that we should be paying for medical care and would like to see the NHS partly privatised. That's not a shock, but what's that do with the in or out debate??Boris has admitted that there will be consequences for UK employment but it is a risk worth taking. It is if you have millions in the bank like he has and not to have to pay the mortgage or put food on the table for the family. This idea that we should vote to leave so that we can go back and renegotiate an even better deal is childish. First, we are assuming that Europe will agree to negotiate. Second, they will give better terms. It is one hell of a risk. The knives will be out and any negotiations will not start for years. Some foreign ministers have openly stated that if the UK leaves there will be consequences.We kid ourselves that we are big players fifth biggest economy and number three possibly two in Europe!!and that the empire still exists. Oh come on stop there with this fact free free fear loaded nonsense rant. No one is saying there are not risks, but they would rather be managing those risks for ourselves, instead of being at real risk from unaccountable German Chancellors, French Presidents, EU Presidents, foreign ministers and EU officialsSorry those days are gone. When the world is heading into consolidation we want to set sail alone.
This referendum could be the end of the UK as we know it. Scotland if they vote in favour of staying will almost certainly have an independence referendum again.That's their right as I see it, but let's not forget that they almost did last year, when as I recall we were still in the EU? If there is another referendum on being part of the UK, I hope next time everyone in the UK gets a vote, not just the Scots.
With regards to establishing new markets with China and other developing nations it is full of danger. These countries are much more interested in selling into established markets than buying from them. The UK runs a massive trading deficit with China. The Chinese have recently flooded the world market with cheap steel and will probably result in the end of steel making in the UK. At a minimum it will result in massive job cuts. Blame has been put on the EU and that is not true. When the Chinese started to flood the market the EU wanted to impose 68% tariff and who opposed it. Yes, the UK government. Yes absolutely we agree on that, shame on themCountries like the US, Canada, China and Australia do not want the UK to leave. We stopped telling these countries what to do 250, 50, 50 and 20 years ago, and so I hope they do not expect to tell us what we should do about our own future. They are happy dealing with a market that they know and the regulations that apply.
The financial services directive of 2010(not sure of date) allows the free movement and trade within the free market block. The UK is a service nation as we have not been been a manufacturing nation for years. The EU actually protects our trading in services. Some of our main earners include banking and insurance and these could be seriously hampered by leaving the UK. Strangely not as many so called UK real insurance companies are French or German owned and many of our banks are still partly nationalised as a consequence of the last financial cock up. The City of London Banking and Insurance activities are real earners for the economy, and most of them would be glad to be clear of the EU, but having said that British Governments of both red and blue have always protected the City from the worst of the EU, seeing them as a special interest of the UK, for example a financial transcation tax, personally I do not hold favour with that view and do agree with a financial transaction tax, but to get that I know we do not have to be a member of the EU
Then there is the whole muddle around immigration and the free movement of labour. Typical of the UK press and sensational headlines that usually highlights one or two situations. We are led to believe that the immigrant is the route of all problems. Of course they are not, but they are responsible in many cases and areas for stretching public services, particularly schools and health, driving down wages and conditions, that's not necessarily their responsibility. I see it less as a push from the immigrants and more of a pull from British employersIt is a fact that the UK relies on immigration to fill the skill shortages. If we have skill shortages, why hasn't the EU helped us with that? And more particularlyThe average immigrant is better qualified than the locally produced workerThat's right but an awful lot of them, measured in the hundreds of thousands are not better qualified. Some 35% of immigrants come with degrees as opposed 21% of the local population. The UK population is getting older and the average age of the foreign worker is 24 against 40+ for the UK worker. So the UK leaves the EU what is the position of the current immigrants? Do they stay or do we deport them? Where do they stand with the rights guaranteed to them under EU regulation? Deport them and finish up with even bigger labour shortages. Good set of questions, I do not have an answer right now, but I do know that if we are outside the EU we can decide what we want to do. Not be told by some remote member of the EU Commission what we are going to do.Make life extremely difficult for Brits who want to retire or work abroad.Don't see extreme difficulty for Brits who decide to retire here to Turkey, and I cannot imagine it will make much difference if people decide to retire to EU countries, after all they are bringing in their own money
It is an accepted fact that immigrants in work contribute some 34% more into the system than what they take out. Accepted fact by who? The 34% is a short run assessment, when you get into the long run as people have families or bring over families and then start to use the wide variety of UK public services like pensions, health, social services, education the 34% figure disappears, and when large families are involved - as we know from past and current migration - you start to move to negative contribution
Immigration masks many things. In fact it is only 50% that come from the EU. So why is the UK not able to manage and control the other 50%. The emphasis is generally on the Muslim population in the UK. Most of them come the Indian sub continent and Africa not Europe.Well that's a muddled set of points that are meaningless nonsense that not even I am going to try to unravel
I listen to these health tourism arguments and it is again bent to suit the exit campaign. I'd say that the health tourism is not so much an EU migrant issue, as it is a non EU migrant issue.The UK is under no obligation to treat visitors free of charge. EU members should have a EHIC card that allows the UK to recoup the cost of treatment. The fact that the UK does not collect the fees and does not refuse treatment is the incompetence of the UK system.Not going to disagree on these points, especially the latter point. If we are out of the EU though, and there is no reciprocal health arrangements in place from which the UK people can benefit, then perhaps we will start to address this issue.
Yes, the EU is far from perfect and needs reform. And there you have it, it does need reform it is just that you are not going to get it. Cameron, and Brown and Blair before him, have tried hard to get real meaningful reform from the EU as it presses on for greater and greater integration based on an enlarging Eurozone. And they have all failed. And over the last couple of years I have come to the conclusion that the whole edifice is unreformable, and so we should take our chances outside. This point was re-inforced when I saw the disgraceful way the EU Commission, European Central Bank and the German 'High Command' treated the Greek people, as indeed they did to a lesser extent to the Portugese, Spanish and other southern european states. And especially when Merkel spoke and threw open the EU borders to basically any incomer. And look what happened when the European project fails, and we outsource our problems to nations like Turkey and despots like Erdogan, we pay billions, we agree to ridiculous demands and only two days ago we see Merkel abandon freedom of speech to placate Reg ..... that's not Europe, and that's certinly not Europe in my nameBut is it worse than taking the risk to be cut off in a very unstable world that we now live in.
This referendum is really a sideshow. It is the culmination of 30 years of Tory infighting from the time that Pro Europeans led the plot to get rid of Maggie.
As for UKIP it is nothing more than an opportunity to spread fear about immigration and exploit the Tory divisions. Farage is happy to take his big fat salary from the EU. Here is a man who hates Europe so much that he drives a Volvo.
It is over 3 years since I posted on the forum but I feel that this referendum is the most important decision that the country has been asked to make for many a year. We are not just voting for the current generation but generations to come. I will vote to stay for the sake of my grandchildren as I believe that the alternatives are full of risks and danger.
I will get the usual Brexit campaign response that I am spreading fear. I am stating tangible outcomes. All I hear from the other side is conjecture and fairytales. Fairytales like there is a better world out there. Don't worry nothing will change except we will have £12 billion in our pockets and we will be happy.
Apologies for such a long ramble, so speak to all again in 3 years time.
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The most sensible post I have read so far, I'm for staying in, but don't agree to paying more money than others.
This is either a DM Wind Up (Patent Pending - Copyright Protected) or Thatch must be turning, no spinning, in her grave!!
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I will get the usual Brexit campaign response that I am spreading fear.
Well that was an easy prediction! UBT and his chums on the rabid right of the Tory Party and Ukippers scream "Project Fear" every time someone makes a serious economic analysis of the likely consequences of leaving the EU. Writing it in red doesn't make the refrain any more credible.
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I see most of the scaremongering coming from those who want us to stay in. The Brexits are a little more level headed imo.
The EU is not what it was set up to be. It's bloated and wastes vast amounts of our money. It's corrupt.
Try reading this and you might realise why we need to get rid of this weight that is dragging us down with it.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/1784977101/ref=tsm_1_fb_lk
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UBT, you are right I did give up because of you. Continue thinking that if it makes over inflated ego feel better. Honestly, if you think someone like you would frighten me off anything is sheer utter stupidity on your behalf. There is very little point in discussing anything with you. You are a self centred arrogant know-all who thinks his point of view is right and everyone who expresses an opinion that is different is wrong, stupid and must be insulted. Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit and you are full of it.
Your opening remarks on your previous post stating that when we leave everything will remain the same and we will continue to trade as normally is naive to say the least. Maybe you would like to read the treasury report that was released today. But then again maybe not as you are obviously such a know-all you will disagree with everything that has been written. Which I have just noticed in your recent post totally supports my original view that you arrogant know-all.
With regards to your reference to Thatcher, maybe you have not seen Malcolm Rifkind's interrogation by the Treasury Select Committee last week. He actually spoke about the Thatcher view and how she was willing to trade certain powers to Europe for the establishment of a free trade zone. Of course, in your view Rifkind was probably lying.
49% of immigration is from the EU and the remainder from outside the UK. It is a fact. My point is not muddled.
I have never said that companies will not be able to trade if we leave. If you read what I said properly I stated that trade agreements will have to be established. Without trade agreements then goods will be subject to a tariff. This is currently 10%. The Japanese car manufacturers in the UK have said that an exit will cause difficulty and will have to be considered.Toyota distanced itself from a leave advert a few weeks ago which resulted in the statement I have just referred to.
The EU will suffer if there is a break up and both the German and French have stated there will be consequences. Do you really think that the UK walks out that the others will really shake hands the following day on trade agreements. Will will be back to the common market situation in the late 50s and 60s where the UK's application to join was rejected for over 15 years. John Kerry, US Sec. Of State is on record that no favours will be given to the UK if it leaves. My so called half baked economics are a lot more accurate than the version of euthopia you are creating without foundation. Maybe it is fine for you to take risks as you may not have the financial commitments that many have.
You are the one that is getting muddled. The current situation with immigrants in Turkey and Greece is not an issue on EU membership. It is a humanitarian issue. I am no fan of Merkel but I do think that she did this on humanitarian grounds. Yes, it was handled badly,left get out of control and has turned into the mess that it is.On the one hand you do not want the refugees in the EU but then you knock the EU for making an agreement with Turkey to keep these refugees. If you want to point the fingers of blame to helped create the current situation you need look no further than the UK government. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are contributors to the refugee crisis and the rise of fundamentalism.
Again, you have muddled up the EU with the Eurozone. Yes, the treatment of some countries like Greece was very harsh but it could be argued they helped bring it on themselves. Greece and it's taxation is totally corrupt. All the finance poured into the country did not finish up in the public pot and it was used to line corrupt officials pockets. The treatment of debt by the ECB was little different to what the Tories have applied in the UK in a much smaller scale. In Ireland, cheap money was abused by building these ghost estates and shopping centres where there was no real demand for them.
Priti Patel one of the out campaigners actually mentioned health tourism as a reason to get out. Just for information this is the same woman who has called the Brits the laziest workers on the planet.
Maybe you need to read more. Try AngloInfo in France and see what concerns that the retired Brits are having there. Agreements allow UK pensioners to obtain a carte vitale that provides extremely cheap health care. There is a danger that this could be removed and they may have to carry the full costs of health care. The cost of private healthcare in the EU and the UK is extremely expensive. many are expressing views that they may have to sell up and return. Not everyone wants to retire to Turkey.
Goodbye and just continue thinking you have driven me away again.
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So I wonder if USB is right when he says the French and Germans wouldn't mess around with us if we pulled out of Europe!
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Put it this way - if we were not in the EU would you now vote to join?
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Yes.
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I will get the usual Brexit campaign response that I am spreading fear.
Well that was an easy prediction! UBT and his chums on the rabid right of the Tory Party and Ukippers scream "Project Fear" every time someone makes a serious economic analysis of the likely consequences of leaving the EU. Writing it in red doesn't make the refrain any more credible.
First of all my old mate, that is not my quote in the box, it's OPO's. Writing in red is a way of differentiating for the readers eye, helping with the flow. The other colours being too wishy washy to easily read save for green, but according to old new editors it is the preferred colour of the swivel eyed loons, which I avoided. And if actually read the points I made in response to OPO you can clearly see - and know - that I am not a member of that club!
If it is the company that I keep in choosing to argue that it is time to leave, then consider yours which would include - and this is not an exhaustive list - Cameron, Osborne, Blair, Clegg, Milliband D, Straw, Des Martinson (LOL), Alistair Campbell and of course the prince of darkness and former eu commissioner Peter Mandleson. There has always been a firm tradition of being anti EU within Labour, and has included such as Tony Benn, Michael Foot and many of the left such as Jeremy used to be. Unlike that bunch of pro european barks like Williams, Owen, Jenkins who deserted labour and in so doing sentenced us for a generation of right wing Tory governments. So I quite aware of the company I keep and the political position I take, which is on the left and in defence of the working class, who will be the biggest losers if continue to stay in. And even though many of the policies advocated by these Tories and also UKIP stink to hell and do not get my support, BUT it could be for a completely different set of reasons from me, that they are right on this single issue of in or out.
And finally, did you really think that load of random, often inaccurate, hackneyed, pro establishment and disjointed points made by OPO was a 'serious economic analysis' ..... come on your having laugh!
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;)Peter, Behave yourself, if you wish to say anything to me, meet me, I know you frequent the Nil bar, and pm me on here and I will be there. I can see no reason to put my name in a list of politicians, whether you put a LOL after it or not, all I did was state I would vote to stay in. O P O has a point, you are starting to sound like !!!! what I call the UK beach forum. and don't forget you and i are all classed as E P K,s whatever we discuss in the words of our Great J F Administrator. ;)
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Sorry guys. Nearly fell asleep reading your two's. Arguments on the In or Out campaign.. Some of us obviously aren't as highly educated or can write as eloquently as you.. I did however watch Michael Gove's speech at lunchtime. ALL the way through.. Unlike Osborne's speech yesterday.. It was amusing. Concise Non patronizing and not scare mongering in the slightest.. This is what we need more of... Some plain speaking for the less informed of us..,
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Yes.
Now there's a surprise.
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not scare mongering in the slightest.
“If we vote to stay we’re not settling for a secure status quo. We’re voting to be hostages locked in the back of the car" Michael Gove, today.
Glad you weren't scared by this, Mercury. It might worry some people of a timid disposition.
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you can clearly see - and know - that I am not a member of that club!
Yes, I know. Guilt-by-association is not a proper form of argument. It is dirty tactics. I was pulling your leg. Not to be taken personally. Cheers, enjoy your Tuborg Gold. I have been away for a few days quaffing Stewart's "Diggers Ale 80/-".
(http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a138/ColwynJones/aaDrinkEU1_zpszq2madiv.jpg)
(http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a138/ColwynJones/aaDrinkEU2_zps7fgneykt.jpg)
In the interests of strict accuracy, I should point out that Photo 1 was not taken at the same establishment (a coffee shop on Rose Street, Edinburgh) as the Photo 2 (which was in the Hearts supporters' favourite pub). I understand that Hearts is a team that plays some sort of ball game.
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Join the queue Des. I have never seen an individual who is so stuck up himself. Goes on and on with loads of personal insults without any actual argument. In fact he is so boring it is impossible to stay awake to finish reading what he is actually trying to say. When you get to the end of his rants you cannot determine what he was on about in the first place.
If he was to take a look in the mirror he would be concerned at the brown stains he is seeing. It is caused by the amount of bull ****e that he spouts out.
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...and with that we will call time on the trading of insults please.
Back on topic
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Grrr. That's what Politics do to you.?
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Join the queue Des. I have never seen an individual who is so stuck up himself. Goes on and on with loads of personal insults without any actual argument. In fact he is so boring it is impossible to stay awake to finish reading what he is actually trying to say. When you get to the end of his rants you cannot determine what he was on about in the first place.
If he was to take a look in the mirror he would be concerned at the brown stains he is seeing. It is caused by the amount of bull ****e that he spouts out.
I thought you had gone again, which is why I didn't respond to your last post, but this post and your last just confirms all that I said about you based on your last appearance here on CBF. If you look at my response to your 'arguments' - in red - you'll see that they are reasoned, address the points you make and in no way constitute a rant. Indeed I even agreed with you on one of the points you made. Your problem is old son that you are full of bile and anger, and the last thing you want is somebody who has the temerity to disagree with you.
This is my last response to you, I've got better things to do, as indeed have other people on this thread and forum. So have a nice day and life. I will, however, continue to contribute to this very important debate.
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There you go again. I am not your old son and that is the last thing I would want to be. You started the personal attack because I disagreed with you. You made a personal attack on Des because he dared to say he would vote to stay in. Your attack on me was solely because some people understood what I was saying and then you proceeded to attack them.
In your case it is not a debate you want it is a soapbox to give lectures. How dare anyone disagree with you the expert on everything.
I like your comment of bile and anger. Talking about the kettle calling the pan black.
Yes, I will contribute where it is necessary and will continue to disagree with you if I think you are wrong. Equally, I would be man enough to support you if I agreed with the point you were making.
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(https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTj14QUFoBKiitbJX_IInnMLOkj-uizoJDFgo-Hy1DaNdX8ckvkNA)
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Still, it's not as fierce a fight as the civil war currently raging within the Tory Party where they are tearing great lumps out of each other whilst saying "We'll all be chums again after the vote". Ho, ho! I am enjoying the spectacle immensely; it's the best thing about this whole sorry referendum mess.
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And everything is a bed of roses in the Labour Party. Everyone is 12% behind good old Jeremy. :)
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If a verbal debate leaves me more informed about what this vote about Europe means, then that is fine by me.
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Well Mr "Junkman" has let the cat out of the bag. He says the EU's economic clout is on the wain. Seems we need more people!
Is this the real reason why Germany's PM was willing to accept all refugees? Cheap labour?
What a great time to get out of this sorry mess they have got us all into.
(http://s31.postimg.org/el82c6i5z/image.jpg) (http://postimg.org/image/el82c6i5z/)
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They will have all the cheap labour they can handle when Turkey joins. Merkel will be history but her mistakes will cost Europe
dearly for decades to come, and not just financially.
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Oh, Stoop has let the cat out of the bag! We have an aging population! There's lots of oldies about and we need young people to work their socks off to pay for us. Who would have thought it!
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Oh, Stoop has let the cat out of the bag! We have an aging population! There's lots of oldies about and we need young people to work their socks off to pay for us. Who would have thought it!
So is that an 'out' vote then Colwyn or are you moving to Germany?