Yes it must have been me that brought OPO out again, as indeed it was me who sent him away last time when he got himself whipped up in a lather in various 'political economy' threads trying to argue that square should be round, in particular about the virtues of austerity, when the evidence then suggested otherwise, and has since been confirmed that austerity has not worked for the UK or indeed Europe. I'm not flattered that it was probably my post that drew him out again, but there was always something personal there and I'd rather he'd have stayed away, as he got nasty last time as he expressed his arguments and always demanded the last word, that his missus finally told him to pack it in as it was making himself ill, and thankfully he did. But now he is back, and it looks the same old winbag rhetoric we heard before.. so I have tried to address some of the points he raises below in red.
The exit campaign is built on pure conjecture and has no real substance about what will happen if the UK leaves. There is this naive belief that once we leave that we can continue to trade as we did before we left. It is utter nonsense. Every trade agreement negotiated under the EU banner will be null and void. Currently the EU has 46 trade agreements with other nations and is in the process of negotiating another 70. The EU and the US are currently negotiating the biggest free trade market agreement. So when the UK leaves she will have to negotiate her own agreements. Negotiating new agreements is not a 10 minute job and can take many years. Like I said trade is a two way street and it is in neither the UK's or any other trading partner for there not to be the willingness to get an agreement in place, and anyway we would have at least two years to do so as we would remain members of the EA This will result in uncertainty in the medium term. At present we export 45% of our goods and services to the EU. And what would be the reason or reasons why this would not continue or indeed be improved when we are out of the EUOur next biggest trading partner is the US which takes 15%. What's that got to do with EU exit??The 45% will become subject to tariffs. How do you KNOW they will? You'd like to think or perhaps hope so in order to increase the fear factor in your argument, but like I said before trade is a two way street and it is in no ones interest to prevent trade The 15% with the US is covered by EU trade agreements.Which can be replaced by a bi-lateral UK-USA agreement, not hard work and given our long standing relationship with the USA I'm not sure why you think it would be a problem? One of the main reasons why companies like Toyota and Nissan have established plants in the UK is to allow access to a free market. Hmm that's an interesting point why then does Japan, Korea, German, French, Italian motor manufacturers invest non EU countries, for example Turkey, and the products then find their way into the EU??The additional tariffs will certainly make exports more expensive. There you go again with the assumption that there WILL be tariffs, and as I hope I have shown above that is very, very, unlikely. And anyway in case you hadn’t noticed most UK companies or public or semi public organisations do not trade with the EU or indeed internationally, so the impact on the whole economy is nowhere near as bad as you paintThese companies have already said that leaving the EU will raise certain difficulties and will influence future decisions. Crossing national borders has never worried multi national companies, they are past and present masters of not worrying about them through the use of ItF or Intra-firm Trades. Tut tut there for forgetting that old Fordist economic ploy (Foreign investment in the UK will suffer. Not necessarily as we will be able to encourage investment through all sorts of measures that we cannot currently do under EU anti competitive rules, at last the central and local/regional government will be able to attract investment without worrying about upsetting one or other of our EU partnersThis will be to the advantage of the EU as companies will consider relocating or starting new ventures in Eastern Europe. The choice is invest in the UK with a population of 65 million or Europe with 450 million people.Here you go again in your assumption that companies would not have access to europe, they will under a trading agreement, in the same way that for example that GM's Opel factories will have access to the UK market for the models produced in Germany, albeit as a VauxhallThe one thing that business hates is uncertainty and that will certainly come in the truck load. We have seen the impact of this uncertainty in the dramatic fall in sterling since the referendum announcement. The fall - not dramatic - in the value of Sterling is more about the unravelling of Osbornes economic plans than the already known about EU referendum, in particular in how it is dealing with public debt, and the lack of growth in the economy, largely through the Osborne applied austerity plans - you'll remember that, because I do recall you saying how that particular brand of medicine would help the UK economySome forecasters are stating that parity will be achieved with the Euro if we leave. Could you let me know who these loons are, cos I'll steer clear of their advice ... phww I am getting tired of dealing with one after another fear factors in your arguments.. still let's press onI read all this about the Euro and yes it is far from perfect but it is still one of the major hard currencies of the world. So it should be, but the fact is that it has not performed as well as it should, in particular against the real hard currency the dollarSince the introduction of the Euro sterling has depreciated against it and is continuing to depreciate. I think you should more accurately say that since the introduction of the Euro things have been both up and downIt is another smokescreen of exit campaign. We did not join the Euro and we cannot be forced to join it. If the rest of Europe want to integrate more that is their decision. The Euro did not cause the last recession we should look towards the US and sub prime lending for the starting point. We have survived outside the Euro and we will continue to do so. Of course we can survive outside the Euro, but the point is the rest of the EU is either in or signed up to joining the Euro, which will mean that more and more of the EU's policies will be directly driven by the needs of the Euro, which will require increased integration and erosion of national governments and more importantly the national will of independent nations But will we be able to survive outside the free trade and that is what this referendum should be about.
The basics of the EU is still that it is a free trade area. No its not, that disappeared with the old EC and Thatcher's sign up of MastrichtThe impression that every directive from Brussels is another nail in our human rights is just another untruth. Directives from the EU include
- the working directive of 48 hours and break times.Tory opt out
- paternal leave and extra protection in the work place for pregnant women We can still have this sort of social legislation outside the EU, could even be better
- Pension protection on change of company ownership again why can you not have that outside the EU?
- Food, health and animal rights On the latter point most of the animal welfare legislation is either ignored or uninforced across the EU, whether in the Netherlands or Denmark for pigs or in east european nations for just about any welfare provision - which I am afraid is an all too frequent issue right across the EU in a variety industries or sectors of the economy of either ignoring or not enforcing EU legislation - sadly the nation that often, if not always, does the right thing is the UK, even when it is against its own interest to do so.
- Travel and the opening of competition. I don't have any problem travelling to anywhere in the world, in visa and non visa areas do you? Now please do not get me started on european competition rules, when it seems that every EU nation has its own national champion operating in a particular market or industry who invariably dominates and receives all sorts of support from their national government, but generally it works but let’s not kid ourselves it has given us open competition ..again only the stupid British think it is OK, for example, to have the Germans and French (national champions) run the – privatised - UK utilities or transport.
These are just some of the areas. The exiters want to remove the directives that generally apply to workers rights like the working directives and health and safety as they are considered a burdenNo we don't, but I'd remind you that the UK Equal Pay Act, Sex and Race Discrimination and Health and Safety legislation was in place long before Thatch signed up to Marstricht, and they have not been repealed since, and are still the bedrock of UK law, not the EU . We might as well go back to sending children up chimneys again. Let people get killed because they do not have proper protection in the workplace. Go back to letting HGV drivers driver for 100 hours and fall asleep at the wheel. Here we go again trying to put the fear of the bejazus up people, when no sane person who wants out of the EU is even thinking let alone proposing the reintroduction of such stupid proposalsLet us allow vulture capitalists to raid Pension funds. In case you haven't noticed they have done so already whilst we have been in the EU, and not just VC's either The removal of employment law impacts on the ability of the workers to protect themselves without the opportunity to appeal to European courts. You might be right if the Tories hadn't continued to opt out of any workers right. If workers are going to better protect themselves then they need to rely less on Brussels and the EU Commission, but on standing up for themselves through organising into strong trade unions with strong collective bargaining rights
Nigel Farage argues that we can create a Swiss or Norwegian model and continue to trade with the EU taking the good bits is nonsense. The Swiss and Norwegians still have to contribute to the EU budget and comply with the vast majority of EU regulation. Norway actually pays more per capita to the EU than the UK pays per capita. Very interesting but the EU will be bargaining with a key ally who happens to also be the fifth largest economy in the world, and a market that they are keen to remain a part ofThe agreement with the Swiss excludes financial services which is one of the UK's major exports. Tell me have you seen an EU agreement on Financial Services that favours the UK or the City of London yet?So the Swiss and Norwegians still have to comply and pay but have no seat at the table to influence the decisions that impact them. . we have a seat at the table today, but I aint seen much come out of the EU that works in the UK favour, and if we did theTories will probably negotiate an opt out anyway. Ask yourself this one if being at the table brings us influence and opportunity, why did Cameron bring back the best part of bugger all to put before the British electorate to persuad them to vote to remain. I listen to Farage and Boris going on about the £12 billion we will save and how it will sort the NHS out when we will be giving it back to the EU as payment for the privilege to trade.Says who, you or some other europhile, does the USA, China or Canada pay for the privililege of trading with Europe Boris(I am looking after myself) stated that we should be paying for medical care and would like to see the NHS partly privatised. That's not a shock, but what's that do with the in or out debate??Boris has admitted that there will be consequences for UK employment but it is a risk worth taking. It is if you have millions in the bank like he has and not to have to pay the mortgage or put food on the table for the family. This idea that we should vote to leave so that we can go back and renegotiate an even better deal is childish. First, we are assuming that Europe will agree to negotiate. Second, they will give better terms. It is one hell of a risk. The knives will be out and any negotiations will not start for years. Some foreign ministers have openly stated that if the UK leaves there will be consequences.We kid ourselves that we are big players fifth biggest economy and number three possibly two in Europe!!and that the empire still exists. Oh come on stop there with this fact free free fear loaded nonsense rant. No one is saying there are not risks, but they would rather be managing those risks for ourselves, instead of being at real risk from unaccountable German Chancellors, French Presidents, EU Presidents, foreign ministers and EU officialsSorry those days are gone. When the world is heading into consolidation we want to set sail alone.
This referendum could be the end of the UK as we know it. Scotland if they vote in favour of staying will almost certainly have an independence referendum again.That's their right as I see it, but let's not forget that they almost did last year, when as I recall we were still in the EU? If there is another referendum on being part of the UK, I hope next time everyone in the UK gets a vote, not just the Scots.
With regards to establishing new markets with China and other developing nations it is full of danger. These countries are much more interested in selling into established markets than buying from them. The UK runs a massive trading deficit with China. The Chinese have recently flooded the world market with cheap steel and will probably result in the end of steel making in the UK. At a minimum it will result in massive job cuts. Blame has been put on the EU and that is not true. When the Chinese started to flood the market the EU wanted to impose 68% tariff and who opposed it. Yes, the UK government. Yes absolutely we agree on that, shame on themCountries like the US, Canada, China and Australia do not want the UK to leave. We stopped telling these countries what to do 250, 50, 50 and 20 years ago, and so I hope they do not expect to tell us what we should do about our own future. They are happy dealing with a market that they know and the regulations that apply.
The financial services directive of 2010(not sure of date) allows the free movement and trade within the free market block. The UK is a service nation as we have not been been a manufacturing nation for years. The EU actually protects our trading in services. Some of our main earners include banking and insurance and these could be seriously hampered by leaving the UK. Strangely not as many so called UK real insurance companies are French or German owned and many of our banks are still partly nationalised as a consequence of the last financial cock up. The City of London Banking and Insurance activities are real earners for the economy, and most of them would be glad to be clear of the EU, but having said that British Governments of both red and blue have always protected the City from the worst of the EU, seeing them as a special interest of the UK, for example a financial transcation tax, personally I do not hold favour with that view and do agree with a financial transaction tax, but to get that I know we do not have to be a member of the EU
Then there is the whole muddle around immigration and the free movement of labour. Typical of the UK press and sensational headlines that usually highlights one or two situations. We are led to believe that the immigrant is the route of all problems. Of course they are not, but they are responsible in many cases and areas for stretching public services, particularly schools and health, driving down wages and conditions, that's not necessarily their responsibility. I see it less as a push from the immigrants and more of a pull from British employersIt is a fact that the UK relies on immigration to fill the skill shortages. If we have skill shortages, why hasn't the EU helped us with that? And more particularlyThe average immigrant is better qualified than the locally produced workerThat's right but an awful lot of them, measured in the hundreds of thousands are not better qualified. Some 35% of immigrants come with degrees as opposed 21% of the local population. The UK population is getting older and the average age of the foreign worker is 24 against 40+ for the UK worker. So the UK leaves the EU what is the position of the current immigrants? Do they stay or do we deport them? Where do they stand with the rights guaranteed to them under EU regulation? Deport them and finish up with even bigger labour shortages. Good set of questions, I do not have an answer right now, but I do know that if we are outside the EU we can decide what we want to do. Not be told by some remote member of the EU Commission what we are going to do.Make life extremely difficult for Brits who want to retire or work abroad.Don't see extreme difficulty for Brits who decide to retire here to Turkey, and I cannot imagine it will make much difference if people decide to retire to EU countries, after all they are bringing in their own money
It is an accepted fact that immigrants in work contribute some 34% more into the system than what they take out. Accepted fact by who? The 34% is a short run assessment, when you get into the long run as people have families or bring over families and then start to use the wide variety of UK public services like pensions, health, social services, education the 34% figure disappears, and when large families are involved - as we know from past and current migration - you start to move to negative contribution
Immigration masks many things. In fact it is only 50% that come from the EU. So why is the UK not able to manage and control the other 50%. The emphasis is generally on the Muslim population in the UK. Most of them come the Indian sub continent and Africa not Europe.Well that's a muddled set of points that are meaningless nonsense that not even I am going to try to unravel
I listen to these health tourism arguments and it is again bent to suit the exit campaign. I'd say that the health tourism is not so much an EU migrant issue, as it is a non EU migrant issue.The UK is under no obligation to treat visitors free of charge. EU members should have a EHIC card that allows the UK to recoup the cost of treatment. The fact that the UK does not collect the fees and does not refuse treatment is the incompetence of the UK system.Not going to disagree on these points, especially the latter point. If we are out of the EU though, and there is no reciprocal health arrangements in place from which the UK people can benefit, then perhaps we will start to address this issue.
Yes, the EU is far from perfect and needs reform. And there you have it, it does need reform it is just that you are not going to get it. Cameron, and Brown and Blair before him, have tried hard to get real meaningful reform from the EU as it presses on for greater and greater integration based on an enlarging Eurozone. And they have all failed. And over the last couple of years I have come to the conclusion that the whole edifice is unreformable, and so we should take our chances outside. This point was re-inforced when I saw the disgraceful way the EU Commission, European Central Bank and the German 'High Command' treated the Greek people, as indeed they did to a lesser extent to the Portugese, Spanish and other southern european states. And especially when Merkel spoke and threw open the EU borders to basically any incomer. And look what happened when the European project fails, and we outsource our problems to nations like Turkey and despots like Erdogan, we pay billions, we agree to ridiculous demands and only two days ago we see Merkel abandon freedom of speech to placate Reg ..... that's not Europe, and that's certinly not Europe in my nameBut is it worse than taking the risk to be cut off in a very unstable world that we now live in.
This referendum is really a sideshow. It is the culmination of 30 years of Tory infighting from the time that Pro Europeans led the plot to get rid of Maggie.
As for UKIP it is nothing more than an opportunity to spread fear about immigration and exploit the Tory divisions. Farage is happy to take his big fat salary from the EU. Here is a man who hates Europe so much that he drives a Volvo.
It is over 3 years since I posted on the forum but I feel that this referendum is the most important decision that the country has been asked to make for many a year. We are not just voting for the current generation but generations to come. I will vote to stay for the sake of my grandchildren as I believe that the alternatives are full of risks and danger.
I will get the usual Brexit campaign response that I am spreading fear. I am stating tangible outcomes. All I hear from the other side is conjecture and fairytales. Fairytales like there is a better world out there. Don't worry nothing will change except we will have £12 billion in our pockets and we will be happy.
Apologies for such a long ramble, so speak to all again in 3 years time.
