Kevin - I don't live in Istanbul; I have a house there but prefer not to be a full time resident. I work as an external consultant for one of the major Turkish owned law firms and visit the office as rarely as I can get away with
We were discussing exactly what you've asked last night - over a 20yr old bottle of tawny port that didn't come from Lidl or Aldi - and the consensus is that the Polis will still do what they are told to do by their superiors. Any "mutiny" is more likely to seen from the Jandarma but the chances of that happening are still pretty unlikely.
Its not in the their nature to "rebel", look at the violence and atrocities carried out by AKP supporters during Gezi and the Polis just stood by and did nothing - or as in many cases, they simply joined in. The incidents I'm referring to here are the sideshows to the main protest where AK party members ran riot in the streets surrounding Taksim, in Izmir and to a lesser extent in Ankara. The Polis chiefs that were sacked are so far removed from the average Polis in the street that, as far as they're concerned, it makes no difference to the daily grind. Also, bear in mind this is Turkey... the faction in the ascendency one day may be on the way down the next - given the unemployment rate would you, as a small cog in the system, want to choose sides in a dispute that's way way above your head?
On that point, I read somewhere yesterday that there is a possibility the sacked Polis may now be reinstated after Güler, the Minister for the Interior resigned - cant remember where it was but only time will tell on that one.
Colwyn - no-one on the street trusts the Polis and never have done. They've abused their power in so many petty ways over the years that no-one has any respect for the average Polis they come in to contact with. I'm not saying they are all bad, just that to the man in the street (certainly in Istanbul) they are an organisation to be avoided at all costs. We've always brought our girls up with the rule that if they are out without us and have a problem you go to a shopkeeper or such like rather than the Polis.
Its thirty odd years since Evren initiated the coup that resulted in three years of military rule and after the past few years of purges, I just don't see there being anyone left anyone with a power-base (or desire) sufficient to do the same - to be honest, I don't really know enough about the current military to give an informed opinion, its just how I see it.
In 1997 coup that got shot of Erbakan, General Bir said "In Turkey, we have a marriage of Islam and democracy. The child of this marriage is secularism. Now this child gets sick from time to time. The Turkish armed forces is the doctor which saves the child." His pay back for that was to spend nine months in jail before being released this February for lack of evidence.
Maybe there's another General Bir or another General Evren sitting, watching and waiting. I honestly don't know and I'm not sure that military intervention is the way forward - frying pan and fire come to mind.
The thing to remeber is that this is Turkey - for all I know we might see the Polis downing shields and batons in Kadiköy tomorrow and by Saturday its tanks and soldiers on the street and Erdogan being led through the streets of Ankara in handcuffs!
Anyway, its a merry Xmas to all those who have been arrested, especially my most favourite arrestee, Mr Demir my local mayor who's construction policies have personally caused us serious grief over the past eight years... get it right up yeh Mustafa!
JF
