Author Topic: Lira getting Stronger - Why?  (Read 120414 times)

Colwyn, bells (+ 2 Hidden) and 7 Guests are viewing this topic.

Online Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2014, 15:28:31 PM »
You are the Wyatt Earp of northwest Wrexham?



Online scorcher

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2014, 15:35:48 PM »
As long as all this is not affecting the celeriac prices, you should be fine! Nobody bothered too much in Minera when I was a boy!  ;D

Online KKOB

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2014, 16:06:02 PM »
You are the Wyatt Earp of northwest Wrexham?

Nah, I leave that to the LLPD.

Offline Ian

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2014, 07:43:21 AM »
3.51 this morning !

Offline Sleuth

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2014, 15:57:26 PM »
3 .54   and rising again :-(

Online Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2014, 16:05:56 PM »
Yep, the "correction" has now set in and the Lira is over 3.55 and back in its "normal" range for last six months after losing 1% of value today. Perhaps it will be up again on Monday; perhaps further down; I'm not placing bets.

Online Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #26 on: November 05, 2014, 17:48:06 PM »
Yesterday Turkey CB ploughed $3.15bn into the currency markets. Today the lira is down 1% against the $. Hmm.

Offline Ian

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #27 on: November 14, 2014, 15:28:42 PM »


Explanations please - big palace - hence more confidence - maybe

Online Colwyn

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #28 on: November 14, 2014, 15:51:28 PM »
Back in the early part of this year I tried to explain what little I know about the "drunken walk" theory of exchange rates. The mathematics behind it I understand not at all. But, in gross simplification, it says that currency fluctuations under "normal" conditions are like a drunkard's walk along a road. He starts in the middles and then lurches this way, then lurches the other. For a long time you can't tell what general direction he is following. Just when you think he must be going left he makes three lurches to the right. However, over quite a while, he reaches one pavement or the other, and you find there was a direction there after all.

Can we see a direction for the Lira so far? For several months 3.5:£ has been the barrier then it lurches in the other direction. Now it has broken through the barrier. Is this meaningful? Let's see if it lasts a couple of weeks and we will be able to tell. If it is meaningful then it will be time to work out what the meaning is. Whatever, greater confidence that the Islamic State is being weakened, maybe even defeated, can't hurt Turkey.

Online KKOB

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Re: Lira getting Stronger - Why?
« Reply #29 on: November 14, 2014, 15:57:14 PM »
Or, to précis the above, Colwyn doesn't know.   ;)




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