Back in the early part of this year I tried to explain what little I know about the "drunken walk" theory of exchange rates. The mathematics behind it I understand not at all. But, in gross simplification, it says that currency fluctuations under "normal" conditions are like a drunkard's walk along a road. He starts in the middles and then lurches this way, then lurches the other. For a long time you can't tell what general direction he is following. Just when you think he must be going left he makes three lurches to the right. However, over quite a while, he reaches one pavement or the other, and you find there was a direction there after all.
Can we see a direction for the Lira so far? For several months 3.5:£ has been the barrier then it lurches in the other direction. Now it has broken through the barrier. Is this meaningful? Let's see if it lasts a couple of weeks and we will be able to tell. If it is meaningful then it will be time to work out what the meaning is. Whatever, greater confidence that the Islamic State is being weakened, maybe even defeated, can't hurt Turkey.