I suspect (and hope) that the effect of the drastic downturn in tourism may be felt less in Fethiye/Calis than in many other areas - I may be talking bollox, but this is how I see it.
The biggest "single nationality" loss to tourism so far has been from Russia. Fethiye is not a traditional Russian destination due to the fewer number of AI hotels in comparison to other areas.
The other large group that will be missing is the "first timers" to Turkey who are simply chasing the sun and cheap flight/accom deals. Again, Fethiye isn't a prime destination for this market - places further round the coast such as Marmaris and Kusadsi have had that market sewn up for years. That said, the braver of them may still pick up on some cracking deals flying about just now and I reckon once the season starts in earnest, the operators will cut prices to the bone just to get bums on seats rather than cancelling even more flights.
It's also the resorts round the corner who will be the worst affected by the cruise lines binning most Turkish stop overs, especially the small shops, bars and restaurants closest to the terminals that rely on this type of business to survive. Although, I'm not sure I have *that* much sympathy for them given some of the stories I've heard about how they rip off the day visitors.
That leaves the "regulars" and the "holiday home owners". From what I've seen here (and on a couple of other forums) a good proportion of folks that planned to go this year are still going, the only possible barrier would be FCO advice - and lets face it, if that changed the whole area would be stuffed. If you've invested the time and money in buying a home here, then you should know sufficient about the country to make relatively informed decisions about safety. This will apply to a lot of regular visitors, but to a lesser extent as they haven't the same investment (I don't mean financially) as homeowners.
I know the margins a lot of local businesses work to leave little room for a bad season - we've all seen bars, shops and restaurants come and go over the years and this year will be no different except the number of those who go under may increase.
I was trying to think of a year where Turkish business owners I know were happy. I couldn't. Every year I hear the same phrases "worst year ever..." etc, etc. Then the next day I see them in their new 4x4, or they've sent me a link to their holiday photographs from Thailand. It's odd, but that used to happen to a greater extent when I was trying to get them to pay my invoice, or agree to a new web site
Nicola got it right when she said "When the demand is low those that excel will succeed".
Let's see what the season brings...
JF