Brexit means Brexit?

[madmart]

For the record I did vote to leave and my reasons are I admit entirely selfish.

I last had a pay rise in 2011, since then every year I have been told by one of our directors (this is a FTSE 250 company by the way) that. For what we are paying you we could get 2 eastern Europeans in I am quite certain that similar conversations have happened elsewhere.

I will not question your experience, but statistics suggest that migration has not held down wages, except possibly at some very low wage jobs. It is also widely believed that migration has had a positive effect both on taxation revenue and overall GDP, which boosts the UK economy as a whole.

Who was it that said lies, damn lies and statistics? Believe me wages ARE being held down and not just in very low paid jobs.

[villain]

he stated that the Government didn't have an economic plan for an out vote.
Is this why we are now in this mess?
The saying is 'fail to prepare, prepare to fail'.

As stated before, the only country/territory to leave the EU was Greenland - 48000 people and one major industry (fish) and it took them 3 years to get out.

Yet to the Leave campaign Brexit was touted as being simple and easy - it was either profound arrogance or ignorance - probably both. For example in May he suggested agreeing individual trade deals with France and Germany - a staggering lack of understanding about how the EU does trade deals (individual EU countries don't do them - if the opposite were true, surely the UK would have done some ourselves)  and then, a quote July 14th by our (then) future Minster for Brexit:

"So be under no doubt: we can do deals with our trading partners, and we can do them quickly.  I would expect the new Prime Minister on September 9th to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals with all our most favoured trade partners.   I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months.

So within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, and therefore before anything material has changed, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU."

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html

Then, on September 5th in front of the Commons foreign affairs committee, now that the the penny has dropped: "David Davis admits possibility of UK exiting EU without trade deal"

My take: be under no doubt, if Brexit is actioned on March 31st 2017, on (fittingly) April 1st 2019, we *might* have a transitional agreement with the EU, but we WILL NOT have ANY other trade deals - compare that to Davis' job application statement in July. Just think, Theresa believed him!

You've been had, Brexiters, either by a mixture of a bunch of brazen liars, or by first-grade ignoramuses who are undoubtedly way out their depth.

Bloody details, eh?

[KKOB]

Who was it that said lies, damn lies and statistics?

Mark Twain, Benjamin Disraeli and several others have been attributed with it.  

[Colwyn]

Lies, damned lies and "believe me" madmart.

[villain]

From the FT

Do migrants reduce UK wages?



The chart shows the change in the share of EU immigrants for every local area in the UK (left to right) and the change in local wage levels (up and down). There is no correlation, indicating that areas with high levels of immigration do not have lower wage growth. There is no indication that immigration reduces wages.

A Bank of England study found a small effect on the lower paid, with a 10 percentage point rise in the share of low-skilled migrants reducing wages of the lower paid by 2 per cent. But the increase in EU migration share has been only about 2 percentage points between 2008 and 2015, suggesting the effect on low pay is about a cut of 0.4 per cent over seven years.

Alternative explanation
While the Leave campaign grossly exaggerated the very small measured effect of migration on low skill wages, there is a question whether normally high growth areas should be expected to have had larger increases in wages. This could explain why there is no positive correlation in the chart between areas of high immigration and higher wage rises.

Assessment
The available evidence suggests EU migration does not cut people’s pay, even for the low paid. But there is a possibility that it allows employers to increase employment in high demand areas without raising pay but allowing EU migration to be a buffer.

[stoop]

What lies you were told to make you vote remain!

Whether or not, and which of, these predictions were correct we will find out when we leave.

"A VOTE to leave would tip our economy into a year long recession" - George Osborne!

Can you not read - or are you deliberately ignoring the words of our ex chancellor?

[stoop]

From the FT

Do migrants reduce UK wages?



The chart shows the change in the share of EU immigrants for every local area in the UK (left to right) and the change in local wage levels (up and down). There is no correlation, indicating that areas with high levels of immigration do not have lower wage growth. There is no indication that immigration reduces wages.

A Bank of England study found a small effect on the lower paid, with a 10 percentage point rise in the share of low-skilled migrants reducing wages of the lower paid by 2 per cent. But the increase in EU migration share has been only about 2 percentage points between 2008 and 2015, suggesting the effect on low pay is about a cut of 0.4 per cent over seven years.

Alternative explanation
While the Leave campaign grossly exaggerated the very small measured effect of migration on low skill wages, there is a question whether normally high growth areas should be expected to have had larger increases in wages. This could explain why there is no positive correlation in the chart between areas of high immigration and higher wage rises.

Assessment
The available evidence suggests EU migration does not cut people’s pay, even for the low paid. But there is a possibility that it allows employers to increase employment in high demand areas without raising pay but allowing EU migration to be a buffer.

But immigration is not all about wages and jobs is it? It's also about the impact on our services such as the NHS, housing and schools. Some areas are in dire straights already due to uncontrolled immigration yet the remainers just turn a blind eye and call the leavers racist or bigots!

[stoop]

For the record I did vote to leave and my reasons are I admit entirely selfish.

I last had a pay rise in 2011, since then every year I have been told by one of our directors (this is a FTSE 250 company by the way) that. For what we are paying you we could get 2 eastern Europeans in I am quite certain that similar conversations have happened elsewhere.

I will not question your experience, but statistics suggest that migration has not held down wages, except possibly at some very low wage jobs. It is also widely believed that migration has had a positive effect both on taxation revenue and overall GDP, which boosts the UK economy as a whole.

Who was it that said lies, damn lies and statistics? Believe me wages ARE being held down and not just in very low paid jobs.

Correct - even Tesco have said this week that they will be sorry to see the cheap labour dry up.

Why do you think that the majority of hotel staff in the UK are foreign? I'm fairly certain it's not because UK citizens don't want to work in the hotel trade. Well to be honest they don't - at the level of wages offered for the hours they work.

[pompeylee]

For the record I did vote to leave and my reasons are I admit entirely selfish.

I last had a pay rise in 2011, since then every year I have been told by one of our directors (this is a FTSE 250 company by the way) that. For what we are paying you we could get 2 eastern Europeans in I am quite certain that similar conversations have happened elsewhere.

I will not question your experience, but statistics suggest that migration has not held down wages, except possibly at some very low wage jobs. It is also widely believed that migration has had a positive effect both on taxation revenue and overall GDP, which boosts the UK economy as a whole.

not held down wages except possibly some very low wage jobs, answered yourself there?  Taxation revenue at what cost paying more benefits & housing, imprisoning all these legal & illegal migrants.
Suppose the housing is ok as a lot of polish seem happy to share a 2 bedroom house between 10 adults.

Wake up & tell me you can still walk down every street in the uk city you live in & understand the majority of languages unless you are very bilingual & feel 100% safe, I know I wouldn't like my wife or any of my older family out on there own.

[pompeylee]

How you can rely on any survey when we do not who or how many have entered or are entering illegally the UK is beyond me, I have no problem with genuine migrants but not all these adult males our government is trying to fool us into thinking are children.