Calis Beach and Fethiye Turkey Discussion Forum
Turkey Related Subjects => Turkey Discussion Forum (Not Calis specifically) => Topic started by: Colwyn on June 06, 2015, 10:44:41 AM
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Just been to the "off licence" to pick up stocks for tomorrow. Sitting in bar with an Efes now pondering the outcome/s. I take it for granted that AKP will win and by quite a way {but look what anyone knew in the UK election}. If it is an AKP win will be be enough to get the 330 seats Erdogan needs to to fulfill his plans to transfer constitutional power to the Presidency, set him up as Sultan of Turkey, Caliph of the Islamic World and Supreme Commander of the Universe? Betting money says AKP will fall short of this target. But will AKP do a deal, coalition perhaps, with another party to get to 330. If HDP, the Kurdish party, gets over the 10% line needed to take seats in Parliament would they do a deal to sell RTE the power he wants in return for a semi-autonomous/autonomous "Kurdistan" within Turkey? {The strange sound you hear is Ataturk spinning in his grave}.
Anybody got any thoughts/guesses on the matter?
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not looking like a coalition is likely from this
http://mobile.todayszaman.com/national_erdogan-chides-demirtas-for-not-answering-his-call-after-attack-on-hdp-rally_383467.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
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Grim stuff.
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UK and other opinion polls results of late have been very poor indicators of outcome, so can you trust the Turkish ones? If they are correct - and the last official ones were some days ago - the HDP will cross the 10% threshold obtain seats, and perhaps more importantly there will be no transfer of HDP votes/seats to other parties, that has previously assisted the AKP. The overall AKP vote is predicted to fall, then we are likely to see AKP as the largest party but with no overall majority so likely outcome will be a coalition AKP and Nationalist MHP government. On that basis Reg's grandiose plans for a Presidential democracy are out of the window, as indeed are any plans for any Kurdish homelands, whether in an independent, semi-autonomous or in any other form.
In the AKP/MHP scenario the most interesting thing will be whether the new government will put Prez Reg into a 'constitutionally correct ceremonial Presidency' box or whether the AKP Ministers and Deputies continue to take orders, and indeed report to Prez. Reg, rather than the Prime Minister. And more importantly will their MHP coalition partners put up with it?
One thing is for sure, the election is unlikely to immediately settle the big issues facing Turkey. Whatever the election outcome, the ride will be more than a little bumpy, politically, economically and socially for Turkey and it's people in the next few months.
My predicition - for what it is worth - is that Prez Reg will almost guarantee it will get worse, before it gets even a little better. He is not someone capable of building alliances, only seeing the 'us' and the rest being enemies, and he will abuse the Presidential position to push things his way. Particularly after he is denied all that he wants by the democratic ballot, you will see the even more terrible Reg come out. Hope I am wrong, and that there enough people in politics, business, police, judiciary, and even the Army to face him down.
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I realize now that I was wrong to characterize the HDP as the "Kurdish party". It used to be, but since then it seems to expanded its appeal by promoting other issues as well and attracting various "progressives", feminists. ethnic minorities, and LGBT groups. Good luck to them.
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Not liking the sale of alcohol ban today. Polis even driving round restaurants to check.(http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/06/07/46adbb8f548af6fed65631281ee7128e.jpg)
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and now there are 2 plain clothes cops with walkie talkies.
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So will CBF the first to bring us the result? Will there be flashing headlines on the front page? When will Toky get her drink?
CNN Turk has published early partial results suggesting that, so far, AKP is polling 43.6% - not enough for single-party majority. HDP is put at 10.6% which is enogh to let them take their seats,
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95% of votes counted and HDP currently have more than 10% of the vote... :)
Looks unlikely that AKP will get the 367 seats it needs for constitutional change.
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Ha ga
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ha
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95% of votes counted and HDP currently have more than 10% of the vote... :)
Looks unlikely that AKP will get the 367 seats it needs for constitutional change.
In simple terms (for me please) does that mean Reg would have to hold a referendum before he could make changes?
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94 percent opened and 11,9 percent for HDP.
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Bluwise - 367 members of parliament means that the government could vote through changes to the constitution.
Without that they would need the support of another party. This is unlikely.
There wouldn't necessarily need to be a referendum.
The outcome isn't clear yet - the AKP could be the largest party without an overall majority.
There could be a coalition government or there could be another election!
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Thanks Nichola - just watching progress on "jamesinturkey" - think I understand now.
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367 members of parliament
I thought RTE had changed the rules to 330 (i.e. 2/3rds). Perhaps I got it wrong. It doesn't seem it is going to matter 367 or 330 early results looking like they won't hit either target. How long before definite results are known? Should I sit up or go off and read my "new" Maigret?
Hurriyet Daily News now showing AKP as down to 254, CHP on 133. MHP 85, and HDP on 78.
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From front page of TDN:
(http://s28.postimg.org/e6auwzwex/hdn_10.jpg) (http://postimg.org/image/e6auwzwex/)
It does look like the HDP have hit well over the threshold and will have at least 80 members of parliament. Yassssssssss.
Latest results with 99% counted:
AKP: 41.3
CHP: 25.3
MHP: 16.7
HDP: 12.1
GIRUY wee man... :)
JF
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Results so far with 95-7% of vote counted
AKP 260
CHP 130
MHP 82
HDP 78 (first time ever won seats)
So no overall majority.
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Ah -M. Georges Simenon will entertain you Colwyn. I started my career as a very young trainee cameraman on the TV series! Good stuff.
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Where you getting 260 AKP from Nichola? TDN showing 253 after 99.9%
JF
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ntv John
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Cheers. Shouldn't you be working, why are you watching television?
Ach well, it was never going to be the result that many wanted, but at least its notched the small dictators progress down a gear or two.
The next couple of days will be interesting.
JF
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(http://s16.postimg.org/ka8x6ufld/Screen_Shot_2015_06_07_at_19_24_29.jpg) (http://postimg.org/image/ka8x6ufld/)
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We don't open on Sundays any more John :)
It will be interesting to see the responses to what has happened... someone's not going to be a happy bunny ;)
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They're all way too busy attacking HDP offices and supporters to flag wave in Ankara...
JF
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We don't open on Sundays any more John :)
I know ;) I was only joking.
JF
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So what will it be?
Coalition or an early election!!! HDP have emphatically rule out coalition with AKP.
Current seats by party, subject to change as final votes counted.
AKP 258
CHP 132
MHP 82
HDP 78
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367 members of parliament
I thought RTE had changed the rules to 330 (i.e. 2/3rds).
To answer your question Colwyn,
367 seats to change the constitution without having a referendum
330 seats would require a referendum
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We don't open on Sundays any more John :)
I know ;) I was only joking.
JF
That's called doing a Harvey! :)
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Very interesting results.
Good to see the left wing HDP doing so well and upsetting Erdoğan's elma sepeti.
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To answer your question Colwyn,
367 seats to change the constitution without having a referendum
330 seats would require a referendum
Thanks Nicola.
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Looks like a coalition Government now,the President won't like that,
,,
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I predict a new election in a few weeks, RTE to relinquish presidents role, take over prime minister role for new election (because he thinks people vote for him), and then return to presidents role after election. How he can do this legally he will sort out no doubt.
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Colwyn did I see you and Mrs Colwyn walking across a farm field in Calis a couple of days ago. All kitted out like your were hikers .?
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Not us. Neither of us is in Calis.
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The biggest surprise to me last night and so far this morning is the absence of an announcement from Prez Reg. He is the political master of the quick response where political advantage is concerned. He fires from the lip naturally. And don't tell me it's because of his constitutional position in the establishment of the new government... Never worried about such constitutional niceties before.
So his silence almost certainly suggests that he will seek to distance himself from the AKP election result, nothing to do with me gov!, and put himself forward as the only man - read Strongman - to get things done. So whether the Turkish voters like it or not they are going to get what Reg wants, and through fair means and foul he will drive through plans to make himself a un-challengable President. His first step will be to ensure that any Parliamentary Government will not be formed as a result of this election, and if it does he will ensure that it is weak and unstable.
Perhaps the question now is can he be stopped?
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The Turkish Lira fell to 4.23tl (so far?) to the pound this morning, and the Turkish stock exchange is down nearly 6%. So the markets are not happy with the political outcome of the election, although Calis visitors might be. This is of course only more grist to Reg's mill!!
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It's a long time since the military took control. As I said some months ago a new area for the Kurds comprising of land currently being fought over by ISIS will at some stage need to be created, this result could be a baby step towards it.
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I think it's possible that we could be hearing more of Ex President Gul. Rte has tried to side line him
and there were reports that MIT were tracking him and visitors to him. Last week his brothers business
was raided by the Tax authorities seeking "irregularities".A few months ago he said he would decide on
his future after the elections and with reports of infighting at the top of the AKP I wouldn't be surprised
to see a breakaway version of the AKP. A lot of their heads would have rolled if RTE had got his Presidential
system. My surprise is the silence of the Army. With recent convictions,jailings, pardonings of the Armed Forces
and now prosecutions of Army Commanders for doing their duty and exposing illegal arms deliveries to ISIL
where is the Armies voice.
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Good point on Gul Kevin, he was properly shafted by Reg at the end of his presidency to ensure he was no threat to Reg's general election or more particularly his Presidency changes. My only issue with Gul is does he have the balls to challenge Reg, even in some small way?
As to the army, I am no advocate of their return to any political power, but If Reg plays the dirty game I expect him to play to capture all power to himself, then against my better democratic values I could see some merit...... Sad that it could be that way!
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Erdogan’s statement:
Erdogan said on Monday no party had won a mandate to govern alone in a parliamentary election and urged all political parties to work towards preserving an environment of confidence and stability in the country.
“Our nation’s opinion is above everything else,” Erdogan said in a statement released by his office, his first public comments on Sunday’s vote.
“I believe the results, which do not give the opportunity to any party to form a single-party government, will be assessed healthily and realistically by every party.”
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My surprise is the silence of the Army. With recent convictions,jailings, pardonings of the Armed Forces and now prosecutions of Army Commanders for doing their duty and exposing illegal arms deliveries to ISIL where is the Armies voice.
The army's "voice" was silenced a few years ago and is unlikely to return for the foreseeable future. Way too many pious individuals in the upper echelons of the armed forces now, where piety counts for more than military ability.
“Our nation’s opinion is above everything else,” Erdogan said in a statement released by his office, his first public comments on Sunday’s vote.
“I believe the results, which do not give the opportunity to any party to form a single-party government, will be assessed healthily and realistically by every party.”
It's hard to believe these are his words...
JF
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They are almost certainly not Reg's words, to honeyed for him! Anyway he is busy at the moment going round banging heads, threatening, accusing, slapping where necessary, calling in all his favours from AKP apparatchik supporters and not forgetting of course those who have benefitted from Reg and/or AKP patronage and largesse over the last 13 years to make sure they are in line when the call 'to arms' comes from Reg to carry him forward as Turkey's messianic saviour!
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Did I just see the lira at 4.20?
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On the currency markets the £ hit 4.288 before subsiding a little. Just over 4.2 now.
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The achievements of the HDP in this election are impressive. Has the charismatic Demirtas achieve the dream of the radical-liberal left of building a "Rainbow Coalition" that many thought was was mere wishful thinking?
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Is there any chance of the 3 minority parties joining forces to form a majority government?
I know, that's just wishful thinking.
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Is there any chance of the 3 minority parties joining forces to form a majority government?
(http://s10.postimg.org/fyv5mr3f9/image.jpg) (http://postimg.org/image/fyv5mr3f9/)
JF
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What was the result in Fethiye and district? MHP?
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Mugla overall was CHP - with just over 45% of the vote which elected 3 representatives to the parliament.
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Turkish election results on a map with search facility.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/election/default.html
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The achievements of the HDP in this election are impressive. Has the charismatic Demirtas achieve the dream of the radical-liberal left of building a "Rainbow Coalition" that many thought was was mere wishful thinking?
I think the HDP has run a fantastic campaign, but it was 'easier' to do when building the party base on a largely anti AKP, or a more specifically anti Reg, basis. Going forward it will have to face more complex issues, not least of which will be holding together a broader coalition on the 'Kurdish' issue itself, and I am not saying here those HDP voters who are Turk, but can it hold together its Kurdish vote too? Perhaps the key policy to pursue in this Parliament, might be the reduction of the party representation in parliament threshold to say the more normal 5%. Self serving yes, but smart politics too.
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This is an awful indictment of how Turkey has 'progressed' under the AKP;
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/water-cannon-producers-stock-dips-after-turkeys-ruling-akp-loses-majority.aspx?pageID=238&nID=83655&NewsCatID=345
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Quite an Enthralling election I have to admit, not as exciting as last months UK one though, when the Tories smashed the labour party into oblivion, im still celebrating now. ;) :D :D
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Battle lines are drawn...
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/mhp-draws-lines-for-coalition-with-akp.aspx?pageID=238&nID=83672&NewsCatID=338
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Mix RTE's ottoman aspirations with the MHP's extreme right wing stance (grey wolves never change their spots ;) ) and Turkey is in for a right rough ride, socially, economically and politically for the foreseeable future.
JF
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Quite an Enthralling election I have to admit, not as exciting as last months UK one though, when the Tories smashed the labour party into oblivion, im still celebrating now. ;) :D :D
Sorry to p!ss in yer chips Des, but the Tories did not, by any rational analysis smash the Labour Party into oblivion. Perhaps if any party did the real damage to Labour it was the SNP in overall UK result terms. South of the border it was UKIP that largely brought about Labour's defeat. If you check out the seats that Labour should have won or retained - generally outside of London - you will see that the UKIP (and occasionally the Greens) vote prevented a Labour victory, largely because their vote was made up of disaffected Labour voters, either protest voting or a genuine feeling that Labour had deserted them. Nothing to do with Labour losing the aspirational centre, as the Blairites argue, but everything to do with the Labour Leadership ignoring, or rather not listening to its traditional core working class supporters.
By way of a further explanation of what actually happened in voting terms the much expected mass desertion of Tory voters in a move to UKIP did not happen. And certainly did not happen in the same numbers as it did with Labour. Analysis from Universities of Nottingham/Manchester/Sterling estimate that the move to vote UKIP was made by well over double the number of previous Labour voters as Tory voters. Tory voters have traditionally been more disciplined in their voting, and rarely, and only on a tactical basis do they stop voting Tory. Which is almost unique for any centre right party in the world, and the reason why the Tories have been so successful over the years. The centre right vote remaining concentrated on one single party. Labour voters on the other hand will often not 'come out' and in some cases will vote for supposed alternatives, like UKIP or the SNP, but perhaps most starkly the Labour traitors of the SDP and then the Alliance, which was responsible for splitting the anti Tory vote in 1983 and 87 General Election and keeping Thatcher in power.
We could also factor in the First Past the Post electoral system, which has always favoured the Tories - for a number of reasons - but that's probably a discussion for another day.
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I think Des was trying a blatant attempt to move this off topic. He failed, right up till you bit UBT...
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You are too smart for me Keith, but I,ll always get one, although I didn't expect it to be UBT. ;) :)
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Haha I admire your honesty Des :)
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So nothing incorrect in what I said on both the on and off topic subjects. So why the concerns about what I choose to respond to, even if it is poor attempt by Des to play games with important subjectS, which of course is his right, even if tedious! Like I have always said I always believe that everyone is entitled to my opinion...... Wenger Out
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(http://i1231.photobucket.com/albums/ee507/mattress73/1045740-Royalty-Free-RF-Clip-Art-Illustration-Of-A-Cartoon-Boring-Parrot-Talking_zps583a5dfd.jpg)
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So what is the main post-election battle? Is it the negotiation between the most likely coalition partner - MHP - and the bigger AKP? Or is it the struggle between Erdogan and the Parliamentary AKP. The MHP is obviously going to make a key demand that Erdogan stops abusing the position of President of Turkey to interfere in governmental affairs (also military, justice, police, journalism, and so on). It seems unlikely that Erdogan is going swallow this and will react either directly and overtly, or deviously and covertly, to retain his powers. Perhaps sacking Davutoglu and having a rerun election will look a better option to him than giving up his unconstitutionally usurped power..
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My Moneys on another election. and another bite from UBT. ;) :D :D :D :D
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Forget the bite at UBT but I think you are right about another election, RTE's pride will not allow for any retreat from his Sultan's ambition.
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The AKP has clarified things about the aftermath of the election.
The headline is this morning's Today's Zaman explains that the party has three "red lines" that coalition partners will be required to agree: continuation of {Erdogan's} fight against the parallel state; continuation of {Erdogan's} solution of the "Kurdish problem"; and acceptance of the absolute legitimacy of Erdogan's positition as {52%} elected President.
The Hurriyet Daily News headlined Davutoglu's statement that there are no "red lines" and, anyway, it has nothing to do with Erdogan.
Everybody clear about that then?
http://www.todayszaman.com/national_report-ak-party-outlines-3-red-lines-for-possible-coalition-allies_384304.html (http://www.todayszaman.com/national_report-ak-party-outlines-3-red-lines-for-possible-coalition-allies_384304.html)
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/people-have-refused-presidential-system-demand-coalition-govt-turkish-pm.aspx?pageID=238&nID=83810&NewsCatID=338 (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/people-have-refused-presidential-system-demand-coalition-govt-turkish-pm.aspx?pageID=238&nID=83810&NewsCatID=338)
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Interesting statement from the AKP. Who exactly in the AKP said it is not clear, but then an even more interesting statement from Davutoglu. This the first sign of dissent in Reg's ranks. Is this the start of a fracture in the AKP. Whatever the outcome I can't see Reg being too happy with his nominal number two.
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MHP, CHP and HDP should form a coalition with the first aim to reduce the 10% threshold. This will clip the wings of AKP in the next election.
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I agree in principle that could work. Unfortunately I can't see the MHP voting for anything that would give the Kurds a permanent voice in the Turkish Parliament.
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That's true but this would be cynical coalition, with only one aim, and would not be expected to last long.
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And would require MHP to stomach sitting down in the same room as HDP.
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They are politicians and should be devious enough to work a way through it. HDP are probably close to the maximum votes that they are ever likely to get. If AKP are perceived to be a party in decline then the parties which could benefit the most are either MHP or CHP.
HDP are probably the biggest contributor to reducing AKP majority. Both CHP and MHP need a relatively strong HDP to keep AKP at bay.
In addition another common aim could be to re-install the independence of the Judiciary.
Or they could do nothing and see the current advantage being eroded through either complacency or a re-vitalised campaign from AKP
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Reported in a UK daily paper
"ANKARA, June 11 (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday urged the country's political parties to work quickly to form a new government, saying egos should be left aside and that history would judge anyone who left Turkey in limbo.
In his first public appearance since Sunday's parliamentary election, Erdogan said no political development should be allowed to threaten Turkey's gains. He said he would do his part in finding a solution with the powers given to him by the constitution."
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hmmmmm!