Hesitant on Turkey 2016?

[sadler]

Booked flights and accommodation for May. Have however sold our property out there, closed our Turkish bank account and moved all our assets back to U.K. If the worst does happen, all we will have lost is a holiday. Thinking that there will be a glut of very cheap properties in Turkey in the very near future.

[JohnF]

Have however sold our property out there, closed our Turkish bank account and moved all our assets back to U.K.

I'm relieved that we did the same over two years ago.  The last to go was our house in Istanbul which we sold last Spring.

What I'd say to those with property is that you have to remember this is Turkey - domestic political unrest is normal and to a certain extent cyclic.  In ten years time there is a high possibility everyone will be drinking (relatively) cheap Efes and going on about "the bad old days" to newcomers. 

Not that many years ago, the PKK were carrying out regular attacks in Istanbul, kidnapping foreign tourists and workers, assassinating government officials etc.  It passed.  It was a segment of time within a country and the current problems, in time, will also pass - I suppose for some that's cold comfort if you want to sell now, or in the immediate future.  There's no guarantee house prices will be the same, but at least property will be sellable, and not just to a native Turk.

The unknown I suppose is the international unrest - this is the first time in recent years (I sure) that The Republic of Turkey has found itself at odds not only with the west (refugees, oil & Assad) and Russia (Syrian border and oil).  The next few weeks, or maybe months, will be a good indicator of how things will pan out.  I'm hopeful that the nutter in Ankara (or at least those around him) will realise that he may be Billy big baws in Kasımpaşa, but on the international stage he is more and more being looked upon as a despotic buffoon. 

As regards those who holiday, take the FO advice and that from those (the ones with a bit of common sense that is) who live in Turkey.  I know there is a bit of an exodus just now, I've seen more leave since Jan this year than in the past fifteen years, but that again will hopefully change in coming years.

I doubt I'll be in Fethiye for a while, but I'll certainly be in Istanbul on several occasions over the next few months.  All I'll do is take the normal precautions as described by the FO web site.  Mibbe.

Remember, if things change and the FO issue a raised threat level, you'll get your money back from either your carrier or travel insurance.  So stop being pussies   

JF

[stoop]

We were planning to go for five weeks in May/June and I almost booked the flights last week but had a slight problem with our Tesco vouchers so had to wait.

Since this happened we've decide to hold fire until we see where things are heading.

Worst case is we don't visit our place this year but compared to what others have lost this past few weeks I won't lose any sleep over it.

El Presendente seems hell bent on causing trouble and I don't think it's ended yet by any means.

But - in true Yorkshire fashion - if prices drop we might just jump in and hope for the best

[blueclad]

We have our flights booked for our 3 week chill out in June and our 2 week chill out in October and hotel reserved , only things that will stop us are fingers crossed,   the F/O stopping flights and my poor health issues.
Ron

[gillian handbury]

As they say...
 Life is not about waiting for the storm to pass, but singing and dancing in the rain...
Will be there to let the New year in in Calis......Also booked for May & September 2016...Enjoy while we can....

[Scunner]

It isn't all about how we feel about it. I'll go if things don't worsen between now and next year. The problem is that Turkey will struggle if the tit for tat continues with Russia. OK, if the Russians are stopped from going (or choose to boycott Turkey, which seems to be the way it is going) it woun't affect Calis/Fethiye like it will Antalya/Belek/Side etc but it will affect it. There are many more tourists our end than there used to be - and can all the hotels and all the restaurants survive with say 7% less custom? It doesn't follow that they can.

If Russia cuts gas supplies to Turkey, can businesses afford to stay open? If Turkey loses it's (£6 billion?) exports to Russia the economy will suffer...again.

So maybe the question isn't will you go, it could be how much of it will it be there if you do?

[Scunner]

Plenty in the news suggesting this is the way it will go...


"Russia prepares sanctions against Turkey

Yesterday, during a cabinet meeting the Prime Minister of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, ordered the drafting of a sanction list. He gave the order, which came from President Putin, to the government. Over the next two days the Kremlin will create a list, with possible economic measures against Turkey. It is unsure what measures Russia will take, these measures can vary from postponing projects to financial restrictions to an import or export boycott to measures in logistics and transport.

Different messages are circling online about the measures that Russia will take, but a boycott has not yet been officially announced. Russia wants to take measures that are permitted by international law and that will cause the least amount of damage to their economy. This is evident from notes published by the government.

Retailer Metro Cash & Carry calls to protect Turkish fruits and vegetables. The company imports 25% of the fresh produce from Turkey, "We can certainly adapt, but an embargo will not benefit consumers. Reduced competition will lead to higher prices," says Boris Minialay from Metro.

Russia did issue a travel warning to Turkey. The absence of 3.3 million Russian tourists that visit Turkey annually would be a hard blow for the sector. The only country that has more tourists in Turkey is Germany.

Despite the fact that an official measure has not yet been announced, there are reports of Turkish trucks being stopped at the border and Turkish businessmen who travelled to Krasnodar, Russia for a conference on a tourist visa have been deported."

[Colwyn]

So if I understand eastern Med economics properly, the fewer tourists that come then the higher the prices that bars and restaurants charge to make up for the lost trade - a negative price v. supply & demand graph.

[Scunner]

Correct

[JohnF]

If Russia cuts gas supplies to Turkey, can businesses afford to stay open? If Turkey loses it's (£6 billion?) exports to Russia the economy will suffer...again.

Not quite so much mate, round about £4.5bn in 2014 and maybe slightly up this year pro rata - on the flip side, imports from Russia were over £16bn for the same period.  Over 20% of all vegetables in Russia came from Turkey so if all trade is stopped, the Russians will have to work hard to fill that gap.  You can bet your arse that Putin wont go short of tomatoes and peppers though...

You're on the nail with the gas though, Turkey imports approx 55% of it's natural gas from Russia and at least 20% of its oil.  Saying that, they've been (allegedly) buying more and more oil from IS and thats another reason why they're weeed with Russia - a lot of Russian air strikes have been targeting the IS held oil refineries.

JF